2012 TDF climber showdown: Evans v. Nibali

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

What's the use of numerous comparisons which contradict each other? It is the question with no correct answer.. But I think Evans will be stronger in the high mountains.

That's what i meant to ask. This TDF only.

WTF are you talking about? The stage that Hushovd won in front of EBH in TDF 2011 is where Evans clearly outdescended them both.

He's talking about the stage to Pinerolo. Evans got stuck behind Schleck, though.

 

[Ferminal]

I don't think he was, but even if that's true, he was sick then, and I haven't read any reports about Nibali being sick in the Giro last year.

On Mortirolo Evans dropped quite heavily after losing contact with Basso/Nibali/Scarponi, I think Sastre caught him.

 

[Parrulo]

On Mortirolo Evans dropped quite heavily after losing contact with Basso/Nibali/Scarponi, I think Sastre caught him.

and vino and gadret all caught him and passed him and had the climb been a couple meters longer arroyo would have caught him as well.

evans must have been very sick on the mortirolo stage because the following day he didn't even attack on the gavia stage. . . . oh wait, he did, he just happened be so far behind that basso, scarponi and nibali only rode defensively and kept the gap in check.

and comparing the giro 2011 with contador with the joke that was the 2011 your is very unfair. or are we to believe that evans wouldn't have lost minutes to contador as well on the 2011 giro?

i voted nibali but i think they will be about even on the climbs.

 

[The Hitch]

WTF are you talking about? The stage that Hushovd won in front of EBH in TDF 2011 is where Evans clearly outdescended them both.

barely. he got 2 seconds. extrapolate that to a major mountain 20k descent and you get a whopping 6 seconds.

what a clearly better descender.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

barely. he got 2 seconds. extrapolate that to a major mountain 20k descent and you get a whopping 6 seconds.

what a clearly better descender.

As if it works that way. When you're so close behind, you can still benefit from the lines set out by the rider in front of you. Once the gap is too large (more than a couple of seconds), you lose that advantage. At that point the guy in persuit is under more pressure, more likely to make a mistake on top of being a lesser descender to begin with.

I don't want to get into the debate about who is better at descending, but you can't just extrapolate like that.

 

[Swabian Lass]

I went for Evans, just. But I don't think that there'll be much in it this year.

 

[goggalor]

evans must have been very sick on the mortirolo stage because the following day he didn't even attack on the gavia stage. . . . oh wait, he did, he just happened be so far behind that basso, scarponi and nibali only rode defensively and kept the gap in check.

Nope, everyone went all out to the line after Evans finally attacked on Tonale. He was going for the stage win there, but Scarponi was riding to pass Nibali on the overall, and he got something like 20s.

Evans cracked hard on the Mortirolo, but he only lost 1:30 on the climb itself. The rest was lost on the descent and the falso piano.

 

[Parrulo]

Nope, everyone went all out to the line after Evans finally attacked on Tonale. He was going for the stage win there, but Scarponi was riding to pass Nibali on the overall, and he got something like 20s.

Evans cracked hard on the Mortirolo, but he only lost 1:30 on the climb itself. The rest was lost on the descent and the falso piano.

i always seem to forget about that. . . .

anywa nibali's real problem are consecutive days of decisive stages where he needs to go full gas. he already corrected that a bit from 09 to 10 and then from 10 to last year but if he still really needs to improve on that as it his his major weakness

 

[Ferminal]

and comparing the giro 2011 with contador with the joke that was the 2011 your is very unfair. or are we to believe that evans wouldn't have lost minutes to contador as well on the 2011 giro?

To think that Evans = Scarponi 2011 Giro is not unreasonable. Scarponi still lost plenty of time on Contador, but across the contested MTFs was a minute or so ahead of Nibali.

 

[hfer07]

This comparison cannot be done accurately, since last time both rode the Tour together goes back to 09 when Evans blew up & Nibbs was doing his 2 Tour appearance. The pair have improved a lot-tactically & perhaps in aggressiveness, yet not among the best, but they can hold their ground.
The Nibali-Evans comparison from the 10 Giro isn't accurate either, since Nibs was "working" for Basso & when he blew up on the Zoncolan, he had already put a good effort the day before when he won the stage. -then the same goes to Evans in Aprica when the trio Basso-Nibs-Scarponi dropped everyone-in which Nibbs himself started the fireworks & Evans was dead.....

 

[Wigwan]

barely. he got 2 seconds. extrapolate that to a major mountain 20k descent and you get a whopping 6 seconds.

what a clearly better descender.

Still, Evans has been able to put time in a descent to Sanchez, and then hold the gap against Contador and Sanchez..

 

[Swede1]

I think evans will be stronger on the climbs. In the vuelta last year nibbles lost time on most of the mountain stages particularly in the 3rd week.

 

[Froome19]

Evans was probably the best climber last year along with Schleck so i dont see what has changed. He is a year older but....
Why everybody believes Evans will be worse than last year is beyond me..
He is old but doesnt seem to be declining and he has always been in superb form at the tour.
I dont think anybody can argue that it will be hard to challenge Evans if he has his 2011 form and the only people who can realistically do it would be Schleck through his climbing and Wiggins through his TT.

Nibali is good but has never shown that top level of climbing which Cadel demonstrated last year.

 

[Parrulo]

I think evans will be stronger on the climbs. In the vuelta last year nibbles lost time on most of the mountain stages particularly in the 3rd week.

isn't it obvious nibali was completely out of shape at the vuelta? or do you think that's his real level? he said it himself that he overestimated the effect of the giro in him so didn't want to over tain himself and ended up under training himself reaching the vuelta at a very low level of form. it was a big mistake but he wasn't the only giro rider under performing at the vuelta

Evans was probably the best climber last year along with Schleck so i dont see what has changed. He is a year older but....
Why everybody believes Evans will be worse than last year is beyond me..
He is old but doesnt seem to be declining and he has always been in superb form at the tour.
I dont think anybody can argue that it will be hard to challenge Evans if he has his 2011 form and the only people who can realistically do it would be Schleck through his climbing and Wiggins through his TT.

Nibali is good but has never shown that top level of climbing which Cadel demonstrated last year.

let's not kid ourselves, last year's tour had a lot of things but top level climbing wasn't one of those.

group ride up luz ardiden, followed by group ride up PdB, followed by a tourist guide(evans) showing the landscape up the galibier to some tourists on his wheel (like 6 guys ended up together there as well), and then nice little talk btw the bros and evan up the alpe with only a couple digs.

 

[Havetts]

then nice little talk btw the bros and evan up the alpe with only a couple digs.

No **** that there were few digs on L'Alpe from Andy.. 60 km solo by Andy the day before and spent half of the stage on the front line with Contador. Frank probably had his worst day during the Tour and couldnt accelerate.

 

[Parrulo]

No **** that there were few digs on L'Alpe from Andy.. 60 km solo by Andy the day before and spent half of the stage on the front line with Contador. Frank probably had his worst day during the Tour and couldnt accelerate.

doesn't change the fact that it was 6 man sprint for 4th at the top of the alpe or does it?

and after all those things you just said about andy and frank, evans attack with a couple k to go still wasn't enough to drop neither the schlecks nor velits, cunego nor de gendt. so claiming evans did some world class climbing on the tour is imo a bit of a leap, he did great but not world class. andy schleck and contador in 2010 that's world class climbing.

 

[Froome19]

let's not kid ourselves, last year's tour had a lot of things but top level climbing wasn't one of those.

group ride up luz ardiden, followed by group ride up PdB, followed by a tourist guide(evans) showing the landscape up the galibier to some tourists on his wheel (like 6 guys ended up together there as well), and then nice little talk btw the bros and evan up the alpe with only a couple digs.

I hate to break the news but you are not going to get much better this year, whatever Prudhomme is trying with the stage finishes suited for long range attacks and TT forcing climbers to go on the attack, the riders will be on a very similar level to last years in terms of climbing asides from maybe Schleck...

 

[Parrulo]

I hate to break the news but you are not going to get much better this year, whatever Prudhomme is trying with the stage finishes suited for long range attacks and TT forcing climbers to go on the attack, the riders will be on a very similar level to last years in terms of climbing asides from maybe Schleck...

i know the route is crap, but that's not what being discussed here or it it?

and the level of climbing this year will be higher and more demanding imo if it doesn't happen the same that happened last year on the first week with most contenders crashing out.

there is no TTT so samu's attacks will have to be taken very seriously by every1 as he is a fantastic itter himself and a great climber, gesink has been itting very well and imo will be able to limit his losses to evans, the pope and wiggins without any problems and if he is fully fit he will be very aggressive as he always is on the mountains, same for VdB2 and nibali who are also very aggressive riders. And then there is rolland who is imo fantastic and without having to Shepperd tommy V around will be all over those mountains.

so without factoring in andy i already mentioned several very aggressive riders that can and must be aggressive on the mountains if they want to get something out of this tour. it may just be wishful thinking but that's all we got until we actually reach the mountains and see what happens.

i love cunego but he wouldn't be 5th before the final itt of the tour if the level of climbing was really that high.

 

[Froome19]

i know the route is crap, but that's not what being discussed here or it it?

and the level of climbing this year will be higher and more demanding imo if it doesn't happen the same that happened last year on the first week with most contenders crashing out.

there is no TTT so samu's attacks will have to be taken very seriously by every1 as he is a fantastic itter himself and a great climber, gesink has been itting very well and imo will be able to limit his losses to evans, the pope and wiggins without any problems and if he is fully fit he will be very aggressive as he always is on the mountains, same for VdB2 and nibali who are also very aggressive riders. And then there is rolland who is imo fantastic and without having to Shepperd tommy V around will be all over those mountains.

so without factoring in andy i already mentioned several very aggressive riders that imo are top level climbers capable to put evans into trouble as some of those have already done in the past.

I was reffering to the route not because I dont like it (in fact I do) but because it is supposed to encourage a higher level of mountain climbing.

All these riders are very good indeed and they will be very aggressive in the mountains but that is not my point.
My point is that the level of climbing will be the same as last year, without Contador and with a Schleck who may be strong or not, I believe we will a scenario which is very similar to the Giro, where the riders are all very close in strength, by all means Samu can go off the front and attack at the foot of climbs yet that is unlikely to raise the standard as we saw with Schlecks's attack last year on the Galibier.

Also these riders are strong but are they really that much better than Evans? I think you will find that they may just be on par with Evans in the mountains and the chances of them attacking of the front and putting him in trouble are unlikely, yet of course it matters whether RSNT and others will force the pace or attack, if they force the pace as is most likely then Evans should be fine especially now he has a supposedly stronger team.

And of course if those early crashes do not harm their GC chances they will be reluctant to attack like in the Giro, as they will all probably have similar capabilities.
Welcome to the new clean type of racing!
People here unconsciously continously complain about the lack of attacking/time gaps in the mountains but I am afraid it is here to stay.

 

[Froome19]

.

i love cunego but he wouldn't be 5th before the final itt of the tour if the level of climbing was really that high.

In never said it was that high...

 

[The Hitch]

i love cunego but he wouldn't be 5th before the final itt of the tour if the level of climbing was really that high.

Yeah its unlikely, but i can with my wild imagination envisage a scenario where it happens.

Imagine if JDVB, Kloeden Horner Brajkovc Levi Vino Wiggins crashed out, Gesink crashed and hurt hisself quite bad, Basso smashed his face to pieces in May training destroying his entire tour prep, Contador did the Giro, got screwed out of lots of time and was knocked of his bike by some Katusha *** and Sanchez was virtually eliminated by time losses that had nothing to do with him, in the first week.

Then i think maybe cunego could beat the likes of danielson, rolland, peraud, into 5th.

 

[Parrulo]

I was reffering to the route not because I dont like it (in fact I do) but because it is supposed to encourage a higher level of mountain climbing.

All these riders are very good indeed and they will be very aggressive in the mountains but that is not my point.
My point is that the level of climbing will be the same as last year, without Contador and with a Schleck who may be strong or not, I believe we will a scenario which is very similar to the Giro, where the riders are all very close in strength, by all means Samu can go off the front and attack at the foot of climbs yet that is unlikely to raise the standard as we saw with Schlecks's attack last year on the Galibier.

Also these riders are strong but are they really that much better than Evans? I think you will find that they may just be on par with Evans in the mountains and the chances of them attacking of the front and putting him in trouble are unlikely, yet of course it matters whether RSNT and others will force the pace or attack, if they force the pace as is most likely then Evans should be fine especially now he has a supposedly stronger team.

And of course if those early crashes do not harm their GC chances they will be reluctant to attack like in the Giro, as they will all probably have similar capabilities.
Welcome to the new clean type of racing!
People here unconsciously continously complain about the lack of attacking/time gaps in the mountains but I am afraid it is here to stay.

ya right. . . . this argument again. it's getting so tiresome, i advice you before hrotha sees it. the 90's and 80's had some of the most boring racing ever.

Gesink was already putting evans under pressure and even dropping him on the climbs when he was 22. he had some bad luck over the last couple of years but he seems to be healthy now and back to his old self(or maybe even better as he is older after all) on both climbing and itting.

Samu is a great time trialist unlike andy and he won't be minutes behind evans and wiggins when the mountains come. if he goes they will have to follow.

Rolland, VdB2 and nibali are all aggressive riders so they will at least try to drop the time trialist guys.

this are a lot of aggressive guys they will have to mark. unlike last year where once he reached the mountains the only pure climbers in contention were the schlecks.

 

[Parrulo]

Yeah its unlikely, but i can with my wild imagination envisage a scenario where it happens.

Imagine if JDVB, Kloeden Horner Brajkovc Levi Vino Wiggins crashed out, Gesink crashed and hurt hisself quite bad, Basso smashed his face to pieces in May training destroying his entire tour prep, Contador did the Giro, got screwed out of lots of time and was knocked of his bike by some Katusha *** and Sanchez was virtually eliminated by time losses that had nothing to do with him, in the first week.

Then i think maybe cunego could beat the likes of danielson, rolland, peraud, into 5th.

well that seems like a very unlikely scenario. i doubt that could ever happen

 

[Froome19]

Gesink was already putting evans under pressure and even dropping him on the climbs when he was 22. he had some bad luck over the last couple of years but he seems to be healthy now and back to his old self(or maybe even better as he is older after all) on both climbing and itting.

Samu is a great time trialist unlike andy and he won't be minutes behind evans and wiggins when the mountains come. if he goes they will have to follow.

Rolland, VdB2 and nibali are all aggressive riders so they will at least try to drop the time trialist guys.

this are a lot of aggressive guys they will have to mark. unlike last year where once he reached the mountains the only pure climbers in contention were the schlecks.

Yet will they be capable of attacking when the racing gets hard?

And if they attack early wont we see just see a repeat of Stage 18 last year?

ya right. . . . this argument again. it's getting so tiresome, i advice you before hrotha sees it. the 90's and 80's had some of the most boring racing ever.
.

It is also about the fact that there are not a couple of standout climbers in the race but a whole bunch of riders who are at about the same standard

 

[Parrulo]

no1 is talking about early, imo those 2 days of racing was an anomaly and i highly doubt that kind of racing will happen again this year (even tho the la toussine stage is a good stage for that)

they can still attack on the last climb like it usually happens.

and who will be pushing such pace that no1 can attack?