2012 Tirreno -Adriatico, Stage 3:Indicatore (Ar) - Terni: 178 km

[maltiv]

WHAT? just because the race is shorter may mean a slight disadvantage to Freire but will it really mean he wont challenge?? Its not like an extra 50km of flat are that decisive and it wasnt like yesterday was ridden at breathneck speed. Seeing yesterdays stage all it means is that of course he will be up there yet his 2nd may be a 3rd this time.

By not challenging I mean that he won't be fighting for the win, but he will probably be top 5. I also think you underestimate yesterday's stage, which was far from pan flat. All the small, rolling hills took energy out of his competitors but Freire was probably a lot more fresh at the finish than the other sprinters.

You will see. It's just like in the TDU. The only sprint in which he was even close to the front, was the one he won. Why? Because the stage was quite hard and he had the most energy left. It's not like Freire has ever been consistently finishing in the top 3 on flat sprints, and that won't change now all of a sudden.

 

[Froome19]

I would be amazed if he beats cavendish, I think this stage is cavendishes and skys to lose in my opinion they have it in the bag..

Every suitably named sprint stage is Cavs for the taking

 

[palmerq]

Every suitably named sprint stage is Cavs for the taking

yes it is :S I dont like to make risky predictions

 

[BillytheKid]

What about this climb, the Todi, at 120K or so? Probably too close to the finish for a break attempt to go at 40Ks. Does anybody know its grade?

If a early break forces a chase, it could come into play and break the field up.
Yesterday was a cruise until the last 10K.

Odds on a early break are what?

 

[theyoungest]

I would be amazed if he beats cavendish, I think this stage is cavendishes and skys to lose in my opinion they have it in the bag.. I dont think greipel was stuck behind the crash and I think he is the only one he can rival cavendish in this race..as usual I am making my petacchi is old and finished now hopefully he makes me look foolish again and wins some more big stages this year.

I don't think Freire will win either, but Andy99 painted a picture of little to no opposition for Cav, and that's not quite what happened yesterday.

 

[capstardk]

Filippo Savini of Colnago-CSF is in a solo break. He had 11 minutes with 150km to go

 

[King Of The Wolds]

What? You did see Freire getting awfully close yesterday?

I've not seen yesterday's finish but I assume that he used Cav's slipstream and then tried to come around him. It's one thing getting up to half of bike length from Cav and another thing getting past him once you're getting the full wind in your face. Once Cav is in front, we've only really seen Griepel have the power to occasionally then come past him.

Today's the same as any other flat stage when Cav's in reasonable shape - if Sky can control it, he'll almost certainly win, but if they can't and he doesn't get caught up in the shenanigans he'll probably still win anyway.

 

[theyoungest]

I've not seen yesterday's finish but I assume that he used Cav's slipstream and then tried to come around him. It's one thing getting up to half of bike length from Cav and another thing getting past him once you're getting the full wind in your face. Once Cav is in front, we've only really seen Griepel have the power to occasionally then come past him.

Today's the same as any other flat stage when Cav's in reasonable shape - if Sky can control it, he'll almost certainly win, but if they can't and he doesn't get caught up in the shenanigans he'll probably still win anyway.

Cav himself was profiting immensely from a leadout by Farrar. If Freire would have come past him, it would have been a clean win by the fastest man on the day.

 

[Froome19]

I've not seen yesterday's finish but I assume that he used Cav's slipstream and then tried to come around him. It's one thing getting up to half of bike length from Cav and another thing getting past him once you're getting the full wind in your face. Once Cav is in front, we've only really seen Griepel have the power to occasionally then come past him.

Today's the same as any other flat stage when Cav's in reasonable shape - if Sky can control it, he'll almost certainly win, but if they can't and he doesn't get caught up in the shenanigans he'll probably still win anyway.

You should really watch it. Freire came round the side and was gaining on Cav up till the line where he was less than half a bike length in front. Freire with a bit better positoning or a 50m longer race would have won. Freire certainly showed himself capable of accelerating past Cav.

 

[stefrees]

Cav himself was profiting immensely from a leadout by Farrar. If Freire would have come past him, it would have been a clean win by the fastest man on the day.

Freire wasnt the fastest though was he? If anything, Sagan was finishing fastest

 

[hatcher]

Sagan started so late he was always going to be fastest at the line.

 

[Kvinto]

Sagan is a big disappointment. It looks like he is developing as just another sprinter

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Freire with a bit better positoning or a 50m longer race would have won.

You're right, I'll have to see it, but we hear this in just about every sprint. Of course, good positioning and getting near the front takes a big effort in itself, so guys coming from further back have often expelled less energy previously, so it looks like they're the fastest guys on the road at the end. And if the race was 50m longer, Cav wouldn't have timed his effort in the way he had, would he?

 

[BillytheKid]

Cav himself was profiting immensely from a leadout by Farrar. If Freire would have come past him, it would have been a clean win by the fastest man on the day.

Farrar should be behind Cav. He should study the tactics of Robbie McEwen. Cav is too fast to come around in general and if your going to go early maybe pop Cav from a little farther back. It's all timing though and Farrar is not really showing signs of having timing skills that could improve his game.

Cav looks so much better than this time last year. Really hard to beat him.

 

[BillytheKid]

Sagan is a big disappointment. It looks like he is developing as just another sprinter

He's very good on the uphill sprints. It comes down to fate as to how many a given stage race offers.

 

[hatcher]

I don't think Cav is actually looking overpoweringly fast at the moment, it's just that his sprinting senses are very, very good.

 

[Froome19]

You're right, I'll have to see it, but we hear this in just about every sprint. Of course, good positioning and getting near the front takes a big effort in itself, so guys coming from further back have often expelled less energy previously, so it looks like they're the fastest guys on the road at the end. And if the race was 50m longer, Cav wouldn't have timed his effort in the way he had, would he?

I never said that Cav shouldnt have won or that Freire was better just that Freire was close, very close and he showed he had the speed to very closely match Cav and was very strong because he not only managed to hold on to cav's wheel but also to start overtaking (even though Cav was obviously tying up more)

watch it here: http://www.steephill.tv/players/gaz...=bf8d3b82-693f-11e1-b970-f0b5b07fe94c&yr=2012

 

[Andy99]

I don't think Freire will win either, but Andy99 painted a picture of little to no opposition for Cav, and that's not quite what happened yesterday.

oh, so it's my fault is it

 

[Kvinto]

He's very good on the uphill sprints. It comes down to fate as to how many a given stage race offers.

Only on slightly uphill sprints, he's still versatile enough to compete in sprints when the most dangerous sprinters get dropped on hills. But he seems to be competitive in big guns' sprints too, while (as whole Liquigas so far in the season) when it's going to the classics' echelons he is not there, Qatar is a great example

 

[BillytheKid]

Only on slightly uphill sprints, he's still versatile enough to compete in sprints when the most dangerous sprinters get dropped on hills. But he seems to be competitive in big guns' sprints too, while (as whole Liquigas so far in the season) when it's going to the classics' echelons he is not there, Qatar is a great example

I wouldn't disagree. Yes he's very specific to the incline of the finish.

 

[Flamin]

I never said that Cav shouldnt have won or that Freire was better just that Freire was close, very close and he showed he had the speed to very closely match Cav and was very strong because he not only managed to hold on to cav's wheel but also to start overtaking (even though Cav was obviously tying up more)

watch it here: http://www.steephill.tv/players/gaz...=bf8d3b82-693f-11e1-b970-f0b5b07fe94c&yr=2012

Freire was sheltered for like 80% from the wind up till 50m of the finish. And even then, both Cav and the barriers/crowd were still partially protecting him from the wind when he tried to come round Cav.

He was comfortable on Cav's wheel, which is good, but not that much more. At least not what you tend him to give credit for

 

[Kvinto]

Freire was sheltered for like 80% from the wind up till 50m of the finish. And even then, both Cav and the barriers/crowd were still partially protecting him from the wind when he tried to come round Cav.

He was comfortable on Cav's wheel, which is good, but not that much more. At least not what you tend him to give credit for

Of course, it's not a big deal to finish second holding on the strongest sprinter's wheel without any hopes of coming out this wheel but that's certainly not about Freire yesterday.
Thinking that way i might have said: 'Cav was comfortable on Farrar's wheel, which is good, but not that much more'

 

[More Strides than Rides]

The best chance for anyone to finish ahead of Cav today is if he is caught out in the run-in. If Cav rides to par, I don't think anyone can come around him, and no one is strong enough to hold him off.

Heres the last 3k:

That being said, Cav also looks smarter than ever, also. Not to mention the UK-postal team that can guide him through the corners.

 

[Boardslide]

Meanwhile Cav has taken 3pts/2 bonus seconds at the intermediate sprint.

 

[Flamin]

Of course, it's not a big deal to finish second holding on the strongest sprinter's wheel without any hopes of coming out this wheel

We are talking about a triple MSR and WC winner. What do you want me to say more than he did "good" yesterday?