2012 Tour de France; Stage 1: Liège → Seraing (198km)

[jobiwan]

Sagan to win. Valverde second. Canc keeps yellow.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Would be good to have a repeat of last year's farce where some riders crashed in the final 3k, others crashed earlier and got up, and then some who didn't crash at all but finished way down were given a better time than those who crashed and finished in front of them just to maintain the 3km principle.

It would be especially good if Samu was involved, just to see Hitch go into meltdown for another 6 months.

 

[will10]

It would be especially good if Samu was involved, just to see Hitch go into meltdown for another 6 months.

and maybe they could change stage 3 to a 60km TTT, just to push him over the edge.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Canc keeps yellow.

He'll wear that until next Saturday.

 

[The Hitch]

It would be especially good if Samu was involved, just to see Hitch go into meltdown for another 6 months.

I've already resigned myself to the fact that samu hasn't got much chance after the crash and the god awful prologue.

Wasn't much of a meltdown

 

[The Hitch]

and maybe they could change stage 3 to a 60km TTT, just to push him over the edge.

Samu won't be there next year ( if we are to believe him, and he does talk a lot of crap ) and i will still oppose the ttt.
I oppose those on general principle.

 

[hfer07]

1. Sagan
2. Boasson Hagen
3. Gilbert (if he waited for the sprint)

I like that -but what about certain Alejandro Valverde & Simon Gerrans?

 

[Panda Claws]

I like that -but what about certain Alejandro Valverde & Simon Gerrans?

I have little trust in their forms. Prologues are often a decent indicator.

Though Gerrans might indeed be up there, if Gilbert tries a suicide attack then Gerrans will sprint to 3rd place.

 

[Steady]

My top 10 for Stage 1 !

1.EBH (may be norwegian biased) But it's very possible that he may win.
2.Sagan
3.Valverde
4.Gallopin(surprise!)
5.LLS
6.Albasini
7.S.Sanchez
8.Vanendert
9.Freire
10.Chavanel

Other top 10 shots could IMO be: Simon, Gerrans, Goss, Scarponi, Vino, Bole, Hoogerland.

 

[thehog]

Huge road turns into a smaller road through a bridge right before the hill. Not about if but more like who will crash. Going to be so ridiculously hectic. That final hill got small parts of pavees btw.

It has Sagan all over it.

Thank-you for the feedback.


I agree.

Sagan or Chavanel.

This will be hard for Wiggins.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

My top 10 for Stage 1 !

1.EBH (may be norwegian biased) But it's very possible that he may win.
2.Sagan
3.Valverde
4.Gallopin(surprise!)
5.LLS
6.Albasini
7.S.Sanchez
8.Vanendert
9.Freire
10.Chavanel

Other top 10 shots could IMO be: Simon, Gerrans, Goss, Scarponi, Vino, Bole, Hoogerland.

Even in sub-top-form Gilbert should make Top 10 in such a stage don't you think.
And he said he felt great didn't he? I read it somewhere in the prologue thread, couldn't find any source to confirm it though.

 

[Panda Claws]

Even in sub-top-form Gilbert should make Top 10 in such a stage don't you think.
And he said he felt great didn't he? I read it somewhere in the prologue thread, couldn't find any source to confirm it though.

Gilbert said that he felt the same as in the classics last year.

 

[Steady]

Could you help me with some betting "tips" here?

I want to place a bet on these Head2Head's for tomorrow's Stage 1:

Oscar Freire vs J.J Rojas - Freire win IMO at 1.82 in odds
EBH-J.Simon - EBH win IMO at 1.46 in odds
Vino- P.Fedrigo - Vino win at 1.57 in odds IMO.
Wouter Poels - Samuel Sanchez- Sanchez win at 2.55 in odds.
and a surewinner IMO: Scarponi-Hesjedal - Scarponi win at 3.25
All of them have to be played as singles.
What are your thoughts on these bets?
Appreciate your help!

 

[Steady]

Even in sub-top-form Gilbert should make Top 10 in such a stage don't you think.
And he said he felt great didn't he? I read it somewhere in the prologue thread, couldn't find any source to confirm it though.

How the f*** could I forget him? *embarrassed*

He will be in Top 3 IMO. Instead of Valverde

 

[Trofinios]

Anyone know how steep the last 200-300 meters is? If it's around 5-6% I think that Gilbert, LLS, Gerrans, Evans or Valverde could challenge the likes of Sagan and EBH. If it's less steep I say it will be between Sagan, EBH, Goss and maybe Freire, with Sagan being the favorite.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Could you help me with some betting "tips" here?

I want to place a bet on these Head2Head's for tomorrow's Stage 1:

Oscar Freire vs J.J Rojas - Freire win IMO at 1.82 in odds
EBH-J.Simon - EBH win IMO at 1.46 in odds
Vino- P.Fedrigo - Vino win at 1.57 in odds IMO.
Wouter Poels - Samuel Sanchez- Sanchez win at 2.55 in odds.
and a surewinner IMO: Scarponi-Hesjedal - Scarponi win at 3.25
All of them have to be played as singles.
What are your thoughts on these bets?
Appreciate your help!

Oscar
EBH
Vino
No idea
Scarponi
would be my guesses

 

[Mellow Velo]

About what you would expect the Le Tour boffins to invent for a first road stage from the ingredients on offer.

 

[rghysens]

More detailed profile of he final climb

So the first few hundred meters are really steep, then arround the 2km mark there is a good steep bit as well. Possibly if they race real hard, some gaps might be made on the few hundred steep meters. Maybe just wishful thinking on my side

If Cavendish can survive the climb to La Gileppe, he'll survive this too. Wonder if it will be enough for victory.

edit: that 400m bit around the 2km might be just too hard for him. But still, it will be interesting to see how far he gets in this field on a finish like that.

 

[rghysens]

About what you would expect the Le Tour boffins to invent for a first road stage from the ingredients on offer.

They could have made a detour to La roche aux faucons or Sart-Tilman, it's not that difficult to spice things up in that area.

 

[JibberJim]

Cavendish to finish top 10.

 

[icefire]

Cancellara will neutralise the stage as he did 2 years ago

 

[Trofinios]

More detailed profile of he final climb

So the first few hundred meters are really steep, then arround the 2km mark there is a good steep bit as well. Possibly if they race real hard, some gaps might be made on the few hundred steep meters. Maybe just wishful thinking on my side

Everyone should notice that the finish line tomorrow is at 204m, not 259m. That means the finish will be after 1.5k in the profile. The last 400m averages just 4.5% and the 500-600 meters before the last 400m is more or less flat.

Should suit Sagan perfectly. Cav, Greipel, etc. will be dropped on the steep section 1-2k from the finish line.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Everyone should notice that the finish line tomorrow is at 204m, not 259m. That means the finish will be after 1.5k in the profile. The last 400m averages just 4.5% and the 500-600 meters before the last 400m is more or less flat.

Should suit Sagan perfectly. Cav, Greipel, etc. will be dropped on the steep section 1-2k from the finish line.

Nah, there's just a disagreement in starting height between that profile and the Tour.

The official final KM profile makes it clear this is a 2.4km climb.

 

[taiwan]

Could you help me with some betting "tips" here?

I want to place a bet on these Head2Head's for tomorrow's Stage 1:

Oscar Freire vs J.J Rojas - Freire win IMO at 1.82 in odds
EBH-J.Simon - EBH win IMO at 1.46 in odds
Vino- P.Fedrigo - Vino win at 1.57 in odds IMO.
Wouter Poels - Samuel Sanchez- Sanchez win at 2.55 in odds.
and a surewinner IMO: Scarponi-Hesjedal - Scarponi win at 3.25
All of them have to be played as singles.
What are your thoughts on these bets?
Appreciate your help!

IMHO all of those could go either way.

 

[Trofinios]

Nah, there's just a disagreement in starting height between that profile and the Tour.

The official final KM profile makes it clear this is a 2.4km climb.

Well, something is fishy because in the profile from climbbybike the last km is over 5% while in the official tour profile the last km is just 2.9%.