2012 Tour de France; Stage 1: Liège → Seraing (198km)

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Well, something is fishy because in the profile from climbbybike the last km is over 5% while in the official tour profile the last km is just 2.9%.

Yeah fair point - last km from the point you identify would be 2.7% based on that profile, so it's plausible.

Does of course bring the 17% wall inside the last KM, so not entirely convinced it makes a sprint that much more likely.

 

[Bavarianrider]

2001 saw the exact same finish.
1 Erik Zabel (Ger) Telekom 4.34.32 (43.22 km/h)
2 Emmanuel Magnien (Fra) Française Des Jeux
3 Stefano Garzelli (Ita) Mapei-Quick Step
4 Fabio Baldato (Ita) Fassa Bortolo
5 François Simon (Fra) Bonjour
6 Guennadi Mikhailov (Rus) Lotto-Adecco
7 Christophe Capelle (Fra) Bigmat Auber 93
8 Franck Bouyer (Fra) Bonjour
9 Serge Baguet (Bel) Lotto-Adecco
10 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal Service
11 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Festina
12 José Enrique Gutierrez (Spa) Kelme-Costa Blanca
13 Jan Ullrich (Ger) Telekom
14 Joseba Beloki (Spa) ONCE-Eroski
15 Michael Boogerd (Ned) Rabobank
16 Andrei Kivilev (Kaz) Cofidis
17 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) iBanesto.com
18 Oscar Sevilla (Spa) Kelme-Costa Blanca
19 Didier Rous (Fra) Bonjour
20 Laurent Roux (Fra) Jean Delatour
21 Axel Merckx (Bel) Domo-Farm Frites
22 Igor Gonzalez De Galdeano (Spa) ONCE-Eroski
23 Wladimir Belli (Ita) Fassa Bortolo
24 Kurt Van De Wouwer (Bel) Lotto-Adecco
25 Jens Voigt (Ger) Credit Agricole
26 Guido Trentin (Ita) Cofidis
27 Bobby Julich (USA) Credit Agricole
28 Santiago Botero (Col) Kelme-Costa Blanca
29 Denis Mentchov (Rus) iBanesto.com
30 Laurent Brochard (Fra) Jean Delatour
31 Stuart O'Grady (Aus) Credit Agricole
32 David Moncoutié (Fra) Cofidis
33 Marcos Serrano (Spa) ONCE-Eroski
34 Santiago Blanco (Spa) iBanesto.com
35 Laurent Jalabert (Fra) CSC - Tiscali
36 Roberto Heras (Spa) US Postal Service
37 Javier Pascual Llorente (Spa) Kelme-Costa Blanca
38 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Telekom
39 Stéphane Heulot (Fra) Bigmat Auber 93
40 Sven Montgomery (Swi) Française Des Jeux
41 Walter Bénéteau (Fra) Bonjour
42 Carlos Sastre (Spa) ONCE-Eroski
43 Inigo Chaureau (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi
44 Patrice Halgand (Fra) Jean Delatour
45 Nico Mattan (Bel) Cofidis
46 Michele Bartoli (Ita) Mapei-Quick Step
47 Gilles Bouvard (Fra) Jean Delatour
48 Paolo Bettini (Ita) Mapei-Quick Step
49 Pascal Chanteur (Fra) Festina
50 Leonardo Piepoli (Ita) iBanesto.com
51 David Etxebarria (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi
52 Txema Del Olmo (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi
53 Benoit Salmon (Fra) Ag2R-Prevoyance
54 Piotr Wadecki (Pol) Domo-Farm Frites
55 Massimiliano Lelli (Ita) Cofidis
56 Roberto Laiseka (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi
57 Daniel Schnider (Swi) Française Des Jeux
58 Christophe Rinero (Fra) Cofidis
59 Jacob Piil (Den) CSC - Tiscali
60 Angel Casero (Spa) Festina
61 Alexandre Botcharov (Rus) Ag2R-Prevoyance
62 Jean-Cyril Robin (Fra) Bonjour
63 Stéphane Goubert (Fra) Jean Delatour
64 Steve Vermaut (Bel) Lotto-Adecco
65 Florent Brard (Fra) Festina
66 Thomas Brozyna (Pol) iBanesto.com
67 Jörg Jaksche (Ger) ONCE-Eroski
68 Victor Hugo Pena (Col) US Postal Service
69 Raivis Belohvosciks (Lat) Lampre-Daikin
70 Rik Verbrugghe (Bel) Lotto-Adecco
71 Ivan Basso (Ita) Fassa Bortolo
72 Inigo Cuesta (Spa), Cofidis
73 Jonathan Vaughters (USA) Credit Agricole
74 Javier Pascual Rodriguez (Spa) iBanesto.com
75 Daniel Atienza (Spa) Cofidis
76 Sébastien Demarbaix (Bel) Ag2R-Prevoyance
77 Eladio Jimenez (Spa) iBanesto.com
78 Jon Odriozola (Spa) iBanesto.com
79 Mikel Pradera (Spa) ONCE-Eroski
80 Mario Aerts (Bel) Lotto-Adecco
81 Haimar Zubeldia (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi
82 Tyler Hamilton (USA) US Postal Service
83 Aitor Gonzalez (Spa) Kelme-Costa Blanca
84 Felix Garcia-Casas (Spa) Festina
85 Alberto Lopez De Munain (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi
86 Nicolas Vogondy (Fra) Française Des Jeux
87 Santos Gonzalez (Spa) ONCE-Eroski
88 Luis Perez (Spa) Festina
89 José Angel Vidal (Spa) Kelme-Costa Blanca
90 Pascal Lino (Fra) Festina
91 Daniele Nardello (Ita) Mapei-Quick Step
92 Antonio Tauler (Spa) Kelme-Costa Blanca
93 Unai Etxebarria (Ven) Euskaltel-Euskadi
94 Kevin Livingston (USA), Telekom
95 Frédéric Bessy (Fra) Credit Agricole
96 Ivan Gutierrez (Spa) ONCE-Eroski
97 Ludovic Turpin (Fra) Ag2R-Prevoyance
98 Xavier Jan (Fra) Bigmat Auber 93
99 Jérome Bernard (Fra) Jean Delatour
100 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Telekom
101 Francisco Cerezo (Spa) CSC - Tiscali
102 Matteo Tossato (Ita) Fassa Bortolo
103 Giuseppe Guerini (Ita) Telekom 0.45

So not selective at all. But no chance for pure sprinters, too.

 

[burning]

That stage in 2001 looks more tougher, but maybe someone can go crazy and open a sizeable gap on the steep part of the finish

 

[Trofinios]

Yeah fair point - last km from the point you identify would be 2.7% based on that profile, so it's plausible.

Does of course bring the 17% wall inside the last KM, so not entirely convinced it makes a sprint that much more likely.

Looking at the tour profile the steep section looks to be just before the 1k mark, which is in accordance with the profile form climbbybike if the finish line is at 1.5k.

 

[Trofinios]

That stage in 2001 looks more tougher, but maybe someone can go crazy and open a sizeable gap on the steep part of the finish

Seeing Sagan tooling the competition on the tough final climb in the stage to Chieti this year in T-A, I doubt that anyone can open up a gap to Sagan on the steep section and go on to win. But maybe Sagan is the one who will go crazy!

 

[Dedelou]

Would be good to have a repeat of last year's farce where some riders crashed in the final 3k, others crashed earlier and got up, and then some who didn't crash at all but finished way down were given a better time than those who crashed and finished in front of them just to maintain the 3km principle.

No need for that. Alberto is not racing so no point in penalizing him and Andy cannot race so no point either in advantaging him. ASO have already picked their favorite

 

[the vagabond]

Weather, wind - there has to be at least some chance there might be a big split in the peloton and a few GC guys get left behind, especially if a strong break gets a good gap and the chase gets left a little late - I have a feeling this may not be so cut and dried.

 

[Froome19]

2001 saw the exact same finish.
1 Erik Zabel (Ger) Telekom 4.34.32 (43.22 km/h)
2 Emmanuel Magnien (Fra) Française Des Jeux
3 Stefano Garzelli (Ita) Mapei-Quick Step
4 Fabio Baldato (Ita) Fassa Bortolo
5 François Simon (Fra) Bonjour
6 Guennadi Mikhailov (Rus) Lotto-Adecco
7 Christophe Capelle (Fra) Bigmat Auber 93
8 Franck Bouyer (Fra) Bonjour
9 Serge Baguet (Bel) Lotto-Adecco
10 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal Service
11 Christophe Moreau (Fra) Festina
12 José Enrique Gutierrez (Spa) Kelme-Costa Blanca
13 Jan Ullrich (Ger) Telekom
14 Joseba Beloki (Spa) ONCE-Eroski
15 Michael Boogerd (Ned) Rabobank
.

It wasnt the same finish..

 

[manafana]

gilbert could be the one 2moro, also expect showings from gerrans or chavanel.

 

[K-0tic]

I hope EBH pulls something of, still disappointed by his time since he could really grab the yellow then tomorrow. Now he needs too much compensation on Cancellara,Chavanel and Wiggins.

 

[hughmoore]

I cant see any reason why Gilbert cant be a launch pad for Evans to the line.

Could see a 1-2.



Hugh

 

[Christomir]

Hi guys!
It was nice Tour de France day today, but now the
"real" action starts.

So I'm playing Tour de France fantasy game where I have to pick:
1 time trial specialist
2 climbers
3 water carriers
2 sprinters
2 captains
2 youth riders

These shall be picked with a limited budget. For each stage.

I have picked these now:

Luis Leon Sanchez
Astarloza and J.Vanendert
Gerrans,Albasini,Chavanel
Sagan and Gilbert
S.Sanchez and Valverde
Gallopin and EBH

My question is how many of these have a good/very good chance of getting in Top 10 tomoro? And I'm unsure of my pick Chavanel, should he be replaced by this guy: Vinokourov


I appreciate your help very much

Do you mean Vino is listed as a "water carrier"?

 

[The Joker]

Do you mean Vino is listed as a "water carrier"?

Vino is not a water carrier!

But Vino does carry 44 gallon drums of water on training rides (for fun)!

 

[Fetisoff]

Vino and Chavanel 1-2. Vino takes the stage, Chava in yellow

 

[Pippo_San]

You see the profile pic? There's the hidden text "Sagan stage"

 

[blaxland]

1st=Sagan
2nd=Goss
3rd=Gilbert
4th=EBH
5th=Valverde

 

[RedZone]

Could you help me with some betting "tips" here?

I want to place a bet on these Head2Head's for tomorrow's Stage 1:

Oscar Freire vs J.J Rojas - Freire win IMO at 1.82 in odds
EBH-J.Simon - EBH win IMO at 1.46 in odds
Vino- P.Fedrigo - Vino win at 1.57 in odds IMO.
Wouter Poels - Samuel Sanchez- Sanchez win at 2.55 in odds.
and a surewinner IMO: Scarponi-Hesjedal - Scarponi win at 3.25
All of them have to be played as singles.
What are your thoughts on these bets?
Appreciate your help!

I don see any of these bets as outstanding value. For bets like these I generally pick the outsiders because its a crapshoot (any1 over $2). So Id bet on Sanchez and Scarponi, and possibly Fedrigo.

 

[dlwssonic]

Apparently if I'm not wrong yesterday was one of Gilbert's best prologue performance if not the best.
So his form should be much better now, although this stage isn't really ideal for him as it is not hard enough.
Suits rider like EBH and Sagan more. But I can still see gilbert winning it if he has the strength.

 

[Simply The Best]

I cant see any reason why Gilbert cant be a launch pad for Evans to the line.

Could see a 1-2.



Hugh

Probably because last year Gilbert said he wouldn't ride the tour if the stage in liege wasn't favourable for him to win

 

[dlwssonic]

Evans might be the launch pad actually but I doubt so.
I'm sure BMC will work for Gilbert tomorrow.

 

[hughmoore]

Evans might be the launch pad actually but I doubt so.
I'm sure BMC will work for Gilbert tomorrow.

Yes, but cant see any reason, why Cadel couldnt follow Phils wheel all the way to the line.

Cant wait.


Hugh

 

[Simply The Best]

Evans might be the launch pad actually but I doubt so.
I'm sure BMC will work for Gilbert tomorrow.

Would be a big shock if BMC didn't work for Gilbert and give him a chance to win a stage in his own backyard. Might be more interesting as who they will work for in stage 3 if they let Gilbert attack and go for the stage of if they try to push the pace and see if they can't put wiggins in a bit of the trouble of the shorter steeper hills that he has struggled on before

 

[dlwssonic]

Would be a big shock if BMC didn't work for Gilbert and give him a chance to win a stage in his own backyard. Might be more interesting as who they will work for in stage 3 if they let Gilbert attack and go for the stage of if they try to push the pace and see if they can't put wiggins in a bit of the trouble of the shorter steeper hills that he has struggled on before

Maybe Gilbert and evans will attack on that hard penultimate hill and work together towards the finish. Unlikely, but that would be awesome to watch.
They could also gain help from riders like valverde.

 

[TheEnoculator]

Gilbert will try something, but I'd put my money on Lulu. He's been hot this season.

 

[Twiggy]

Oscar Freire is interesting. It's probably his best chance to win a stage this tour so I'd back him to have a crack.