2012 Tour de France: Stage 9: Arc-et-Senans → Besançon (ITT) (41.5 km)

[Waterloo Sunrise]

2 minute gaps so the stage lasts all day.

Given afternoon rain forecast, a decent chance Tony wins this with his (just) AM start slot.

 

[hfer07]

I foresee the following:

* Duel between Martin & Cancellara for the stage win
* Wiggins will finish ahead of Evans, Menchov & Nibali BUT NOT FOR THAT MUCH
Folks here better know that a "rest day is ahead"-so those not too gifted in TTing will dig deep to stay in contention.
*Froome once again will do "better than Wiggins"-not because he will do a better ITT than him, but Froome will claw his way up into the GC.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I foresee the following:

* Duel between Martin & Cancellara for the stage win
* Wiggins will finish ahead of Evans, Menchov & Nibali BUT NOT FOR THAT MUCH
Folks here better know that a "rest day is ahead"-so those not too gifted in TTing will dig deep to stay in contention.
*Froome once again will do "better than Wiggins"-not because he will do a better ITT than him, but Froome will claw his way up into the GC.

Why do you imagine that because a rest day is ahead, bad TTers will try harder, but not good TTers?

Everyone will empty the tanks, but I don't see why that should mean weaker TTers get closer than usual.

 

[Better Call Saul]

I foresee the following:

* Duel between Martin & Cancellara for the stage win
* Wiggins will finish ahead of Evans, Menchov & Nibali BUT NOT FOR THAT MUCH
Folks here better know that a "rest day is ahead"-so those not too gifted in TTing will dig deep to stay in contention.
*Froome once again will do "better than Wiggins"-not because he will do a better ITT than him, but Froome will claw his way up into the GC.

Cmon, look at the form... Wiggins will be well ahead of his rivals. I expect him to beat both cancellara and t martin. Just hope cadel and froome can stay close enough to make things interesting!

 

[The Hitch]

No, but probably enough to give Brad a significant enough advantage over Spartacus, compared to a flat one.

I dont know. cancellara can be one of the absolute best riders in the world on hills when he wants to and he certainatly can do them in tts.

Wiggins advantage is obviously that he is on peak for this race, rather than Canc trying to peak for a later one.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

I dont know. cancellara can be one of the absolute best riders in the world on hills when he wants to and he certainatly can do them in tts.

Wiggins advantage is obviously that he is on peak for this race, rather than Canc trying to peak for a later one.

Oh, I think it's 50-50. Just that I'd shade it to Fabian on a pan flat course and think that the hills mean it's slightly better odds for Brad.

 

[Panda Claws]

I wonder how Sagan will do here.

 

[maltiv]

I wonder how Sagan will do here.

He has never done a single good long ITT, so there's no reason to expect that he'll do well.

 

[Better Call Saul]

I dont know. cancellara can be one of the absolute best riders in the world on hills when he wants to and he certainatly can do them in tts.

Wiggins advantage is obviously that he is on peak for this race, rather than Canc trying to peak for a later one.

It's a much more interesting itt than the final one though, brcause the spevialists won't be totally ******ed but the gc guys will have a huge incentive and, as you say, peak form right about now

I'm expecting
1. Wiggins
2. Canc +20s
3. T Martin + 40s
4. Zabriskie ~ similar
5. Evans 1.10mins
6. Froome ~similar
7. Menchov 1.30mins
8. Nibali 1.50mins
9. Leipheimer ~ similar

Who am i missing? Injuries make it tough!

 

[Panda Claws]

He has never done a single good long ITT, so there's no reason to expect that he'll do well.

Probably not, but it'll be interesting to see where he ends up as this might influence his possible aspirations of winning one-week races in the future.

 

[Panda Claws]

It's a much more interesting itt than the final one though, brcause the spevialists won't be totally ******ed but the gc guys will have a huge incentive and, as you say, peak form right about now

I'm expecting
1. Wiggins
2. Canc +20s
3. T Martin + 40s
4. Zabriskie ~ similar
5. Evans 1.10mins
6. Froome ~similar
7. Menchov 1.30mins
8. Nibali 1.50mins
9. Leipheimer ~ similar

Who am i missing? Injuries make it tough!

Van den Broeck could very well end up near Nibali.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

If Wiggins puts 70 seconds on Evans, it would start to look seriously bleak for Cadel.

 

[Better Call Saul]

If Wiggins puts 70 seconds on Evans, it would start to look seriously bleak for Cadel.

I agree. I'm still expecting it though. And I think Evans probably needed to pick up some time in the hills this week... Maybe he can pull it off on a sneaky descent I haven't noticed? It was a shame that todays finish featured right before the time trial

 

[Froome19]

It's a much more interesting itt than the final one though, brcause the spevialists won't be totally ******ed but the gc guys will have a huge incentive and, as you say, peak form right about now

I'm expecting
1. Wiggins
2. Canc +20s
3. T Martin + 40s
4. Zabriskie ~ similar
5. Evans 1.10mins
6. Froome ~similar
7. Menchov 1.30mins
8. Nibali 1.50mins
9. Leipheimer ~ similar

Who am i missing? Injuries make it tough!

Quite a lot of riders; Rogers I would say for a podium.
Larsson, Grabsch, Kloden, Kessiakoff, Millar, Westra, Brajkovic I would say all have a better chance of getting top 10 than Nibali.

 

[RedZone]

Canc looks to be in good enough form to win this flat enough tt
Martins a wildcard, could come out and win it.
Wiggins takes 35-40 on cadel
Menchov lurks in the top 5

1 Canc
2 Wiggins +20
3 Martin +35
4 Evans +55
5 Menchov +1.00

Others - Froome, Nibali, Chavanel, VdB, Zabriskie

 

[Punter]

It's a much more interesting itt than the final one though, brcause the spevialists won't be totally ******ed but the gc guys will have a huge incentive and, as you say, peak form right about now

I'm expecting
1. Wiggins
2. Canc +20s
3. T Martin + 40s
4. Zabriskie ~ similar
5. Evans 1.10mins
6. Froome ~similar
7. Menchov 1.30mins
8. Nibali 1.50mins
9. Leipheimer ~ similar

Who am i missing? Injuries make it tough!

What about Rogers? Only 1:11 behind Wiggins over 52km in Dauphine and seems to be in good form - surely a top 10 prospect?

Whats the word on Zabriskie? Rode a shocker of a prologue - I am looking at backing Rogers to beat him tomorrow at 12/10 - any thoughts on this?

 

[SafeBet]

Shouldn't Rogers take it easy?
Agree that Nibali is a very long shot for a top10. More of a top20 as VDB.

 

[Christian]

Wiggins to win by roughly 20 seconds to Cancellara ...

Hoping to see Monfort do well and claim leadership of RNT!

 

[Jan the Man]

***** Cancellara

**** Wiggins

*** Martin, Chavanel

** , Evans, Menchov

* Froome, Gretsch, Grabsch,

 

[maxmartin]

I wonder how Sagan will do here.

he can't tt long will take it easy

 

[jens_attacks]

froomy will blow the race apart.wiggo will put around a minute on cadel

i want to see a strong haimar tomorrow delivering the surprise

 

[maxmartin]

Shouldn't Rogers take it easy?
Agree that Nibali is a very long shot for a top10. More of a top20 as VDB.

Roger W and F will go full gas tomorrow according to sky, all the other will take it easy

 

[Museeuw]

I think Menchov will fail big time. He has shown nothing at ITT this year.

 

[maxmartin]

froomy will blow the race apart.wiggo will put around a minute on cadel

i want to see a strong haimar tomorrow delivering the surprise

Maxime Monfort is actually a very very decent time trailer.

 

[Better Call Saul]

Quite a lot of riders; Rogers I would say for a podium.
Larsson, Grabsch, Kloden, Kessiakoff, Millar, Westra, Brajkovic I would say all have a better chance of getting top 10 than Nibali.

Larsson has poor form, as does klöden.
No idea w grabsch, millar, westra...
Brajkovich i agree, whereas i imagine rogers will be soft pedalling. A sjame for him, as he seems to be back in the form of his best years. Could have landed a top 10 here

Vdb is a wild card... I would think he will land somewhere near nibali