2012 Tour de France: Stage 9: Arc-et-Senans → Besançon (ITT) (41.5 km)

[Fight.The.Power]

I wouldnt be surprised if Cadel beats Wiggins & Co in this time trial.

Wiggins may have the advantage of chasing Cadel, but Cadel will also be able to focus on trying to catch Nibali, so that should help him. Not that I think Wiggins will catch Cadel, or that Cadel will catch Nibali.

My prediction for the stage:
1. Cancellara
2. T Martin +20s
3. C. Evans + 30s
4. Wiggins + 35s
5. Froome +40s
6. Menchov + 50s
7/8. Chavanel, Van den Broeck + 1min
9/10. Rogers, Zabriskie, Monfort, Leipheimer, Nibali, Grabsch, P Velits, TJVG + 1min 10s

You really are the joker. Wiggins losing so much time ( weather permitting) just won't happen.

How crucial will a wet v's dry track be ? Now that is interesting !

 

[karlboss]

You really are the joker. Wiggins losing so much time ( weather permitting) just won't happen.

How crucial will a wet v's dry track be ? Now that is interesting !

I agree with this, i suspect that would tip things for Evans and Nibali over Wiggins and Menchov, but I must admit I really don't know about Froome, Monfort, JVDB in the wet.
Wiggins only loses 35 seconds, with a mechanical or it rains, it's even hard to see if it is just raining.

 

[Progsprach]

I got bored and calculated how the now defunct Combination Classification would look at this point and for the record, here's what i came up with:

Evans 2+9+3=14
Wiggins 1+12+5=18
Froome 6+15+2=23
Nibali 3+16+7=26
Pinot 13+18+4=35
Gallopin 11+26+8=45
Van Den Broeck 8+36+14=58
Sagan 40+1+17=58
Taaramae 10+53+15=78
Zubeldia 5+38+18=81
Kessiakoff 47+35+1=83
Sorensen 31+54+9=94
Moncoutie 62+39+12=113
Morkov 95+21+6=122
Ten Dam 49+60+24=133
Kern 90+33+19=142
Minard 84+46+26=156
Kruijswijk 51+88+25=164
Roy 101+55+10=166
Zabriskie 120+56+22=198
Urtasun 164+23+23=210
Hoogerland 100+98+20=218
Kadri 116+94+11=221
Sanchez 160+63+21=244

Let's see whether in Paris unlike in the Vuelta the "Winner" of this will actually differ from the GC winner

 

[Fight.The.Power]

I agree with this, i suspect that would tip things for Evans and Nibali over Wiggins and Menchov, but I must admit I really don't know about Froome, Monfort, JVDB in the wet.
Wiggins only loses 35 seconds, with a mechanical or it rains, it's even hard to see if it is just raining.

The weather could be massively important IMO. According to the forecasts kindly supplied by Geraint Too Fast there is a decent chance of thunderstorms.

I think we are all underestimating how much of a lottery this ITT could actually be if mother nature gives us the middle finger !

 

[Fight.The.Power]

I got bored and calculated how the now defunct Combination Classification would look at this point and for the record, here's what i came up with:

Evans 2+9+3=14
Wiggins 1+12+5=18
Froome 6+15+2=23
Nibali 3+16+7=26
Pinot 13+18+4=35
Gallopin 11+26+8=45
Van Den Broeck 8+36+14=58
Sagan 40+1+17=58
Taaramae 10+53+15=78
Zubeldia 5+38+18=81
Kessiakoff 47+35+1=83
Sorensen 31+54+9=94
Moncoutie 62+39+12=113
Morkov 95+21+6=122
Ten Dam 49+60+24=133
Kern 90+33+19=142
Minard 84+46+26=156
Kruijswijk 51+88+25=164
Roy 101+55+10=166
Zabriskie 120+56+22=198
Urtasun 164+23+23=210
Hoogerland 100+98+20=218
Kadri 116+94+11=221
Sanchez 160+63+21=244

Let's see whether in Paris unlike in the Vuelta the "Winner" of this will actually differ from the GC winner

Love numbers, stats etc. no idea what this means

 

[manafana]

froome to go well and top 5, monfort to show good form and be radioshack no1 after today.

 

[Carlo Algatrensig]

I got bored and calculated how the now defunct Combination Classification would look at this point and for the record, here's what i came up with:

Evans 2+9+3=14
Wiggins 1+12+5=18
Froome 6+15+2=23
Nibali 3+16+7=26
Pinot 13+18+4=35
Gallopin 11+26+8=45
Van Den Broeck 8+36+14=58
Sagan 40+1+17=58
Taaramae 10+53+15=78
Zubeldia 5+38+18=81
Kessiakoff 47+35+1=83
Sorensen 31+54+9=94
Moncoutie 62+39+12=113
Morkov 95+21+6=122
Ten Dam 49+60+24=133
Kern 90+33+19=142
Minard 84+46+26=156
Kruijswijk 51+88+25=164
Roy 101+55+10=166
Zabriskie 120+56+22=198
Urtasun 164+23+23=210
Hoogerland 100+98+20=218
Kadri 116+94+11=221
Sanchez 160+63+21=244

Let's see whether in Paris unlike in the Vuelta the "Winner" of this will actually differ from the GC winner

Whoo cares if you were bored when you worked it out but I would love to see the combined jersey back at the tour as it was quite possibly the most hideous jersey that anyone could ever be asked to wear in a cycling race and when i say that it is definitely worse than those light brown jerseys of footon a few years ago.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Ah I get it, overall, Kom, points culmulative etc, but nothing to do with time trialling, tomorrow's par cours or this thread whatsoever .

 

[karlboss]

Just checked the weather, seems rain is on the cards.

EDIT: though not much and down right conflicting depending on the site. Possibility of scattered showers seems a reasonable consensus, with thunderstorms the day after.

 

[maxmartin]

let it rain, Wiggins is not risk taker, his speed will be a little slower
he even said the first half of the prologue is slow because of the cobble stone, he does not want to take any risk

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I agree with this, i suspect that would tip things for Evans and Nibali over Wiggins and Menchov, but I must admit I really don't know about Froome, Monfort, JVDB in the wet.
Wiggins only loses 35 seconds, with a mechanical or it rains, it's even hard to see if it is just raining.

soils his pants since last year

 

[karlboss]

soils his pants since last year

Did he fall in a wet TT last year?

 

[Woody22]

Well I am an Evans fan but I have to be realistic.

I think after this first TT is done we will be talking about how many minutes Wiggans is going to win this years Tour by. Based on how he has performed all year he should put some damaging time into all GC rivals, and do the same again in the final TT.

Not that I think Cadel is riding poorly... he looks in top shape to me but Wiggans just seems on an incredible run of form. I expect Evans to put in a good time but still lose close to a minute.

However, if by some chance Evans should happen to lose only a handful of seconds, or better yet, gain some time, then he will win the Tour. Wiggans will start to panic and you won't shake Cadel off once he has a hold.

 

[maxmartin]

Wiggins will gain more than 1 min, but the difference between Evans and Nibali will be minimal, less than 15 seconds

 

[LongSprint]

Havent seen any signs that cadel will drop evans on this parcourse

Cadel's fast, but he's not that fast.

 

[airstream]

Wiggins 0'00
Evans +0'40
Froome +0'50
VdB and Menchov +1'20

 

[Tragic]

Cadel's fast, but he's not that fast.

Best laugh in a while!

 

[swuzzlebubble]

So do RSNT wear yellow aero lids for this now they lead the team thing?

 

[Gloin22]

So do RSNT wear yellow aero lids for this now they lead the team thing?

They were the only team to refuse the yellow helmets out of all in the Tour

ASO 'encourages' to wear them but it's not obligatory. So RSNT as only team decided against it.

 

[Richeypen]

The yellow helmets have grown on me. They should be for the team of the yellow jersey though, not team classification.

 

[The Barb]

I just hope Cadel can keep it close, because I fear if he loses 45 seconds it'll be very difficult to pull back.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

I just hope Cadel can keep it close, because I fear if he loses 45 seconds it'll be very difficult to pull back.

Would also be good for Cadel for Nibali, Menchov & VDB to stay in touch too because he may be needing them motivated for attacks to help counter the UK Postal FTP theory.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Did he fall in a wet TT last year?

Errr, he broke his shoulderblade (or clavicle, depending on the source), three ribs and punctured his lung in the TDF last year in the rain. Not a TT, just, the rain in general. He already blew a good ITT earlier this year (he was going fast, but lost a lot of time in a descend due to the rain). If the downhill parts in this ITT are shallow and/or straight, i doubt he'll lose much time though. Although he did manage to fall 3 years ago in the TTT on a straight lol

 

[SetonHallPirate]

Great idea for the tour organizers to start the video coverage four hours into the TT, so Tony Martin's time will be up for an hour and change before we get to see what happened. (sarcasm) #fail

 

[Sophistic]

i guess this has been discussed extensively already but what the hell did the ASO think when they redesigned the letour hp?