Nibali looks like the solid leader atm, but in fact he's just in a Il falco situation. It's like if it's 2005 all over again.
Nibali - Savoldelli
Evans - Simoni
Basso - Wiggins
Hesjedal - Cunego
Uran - Di Luca
Santa - Garate (?)
Betancur - Rujano (?)
Gesink - Honchar/ Bruseghin
Scarponi - Caucchioli
Pozzovivo/ Intxausti - Sella (?)
Astana looked pretty weak today, so Nibali has to avoid that 2-3 competitors launch a back to back attack as he can't chase them all down on his own. Otherwise he just might end up in a Poppvych 2004 situation. On one hand Nibali has his advantage in descending. On the other hand, he has to hope that Evans-Uran-Santa-Beta are not launching a Rujano-Di Luca - Simoni attack if he has a weak moment.
The problem is, Sky/Uran obviously has got the better team. And Uran might not be the better climber/ gc rider, but he has that punch to but Bibali in difficulties. If Evans, Santa and Betancur are also going on the attack, it just might be the question who could place the attack that cracks Nibali. Then Nibali has to find "an Ardillia".
Nibali should let get a break away, but who? Betancur would be a very bad decision as he might end up in just the same situation as Falco did with Rujano in 2005. Pellizotti could be an option as former team mate. I guess delfino is trying to go for the Kom now he lost time once again. But altough he looked not strengh enough so far, it's asking for problems to let him gain back a load of time. Di Luca seems to be Santa's last man atm. He could let go guys like Weening, Sella, Pirazzi, Atapuma of course and control the bunch. But most likely Sky would still set up the tempo like they did today in that case.
So if his team isn't getting any stronger, it will still get difficult for Nibali. He's still in the pole position for the winof course. But I have a feeling that could get very very close in the end and seconds might decide who's the winner.
Just like in 2005 ....