2013 Santos Tour Down Under: 20th Jan - 27th Jan

[greenedge]

Only for stage races without climbs. He is not a great climber by any stretch of the imagination.

I would also say that but there is the instance of Wiggins and Meyer has even gone better at a younger age (GT/ stage race wise), so anything is now possible.

 

[greenedge]

The stage into Stirling could be good for him as Kittel will not be able to sprint- he will lose up to 20 or so seconds.

I can't help but feel Argos should have brought Degenkolb, he could have won a few stages and not lost so much time on the climbs and could have then finished in the top 5 or so.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

And for the Australian Championships; only suggesting one really hot day and there is no racing on the Friday, so looks perfect. Could be a degree or two cooler in Ballarat.

The Bureau of Meteorology's interactive weather forecasting chart has added new colours – deep purple and pink – to extend its previous temperature range that had been capped at 50 degrees. The range now extends to 54 degrees – well above the all-time record temperature of 50.7 degrees reached on January 2, 1960 at Oodnadatta Airport in South Australia – and, perhaps worringly, the forecast outlook is starting to deploy the new colours

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/environmen...deep-purple-20130108-2ce33.html#ixzz2HLsQNu2j

 

[Tragic]

Greetings from South Australia

Just chiming in, I'm more a lurker than contributor, but I live near Adelaide, and ride with a local veterans club over many of these roads. I know this race well, have been here for 9/15 editions, so can't resist putting my 2 cents in.

The first few years that this was a WT race it was dominated by sprinters. The climbs here are too short to really set up any kind of climbers battle at that level (even in the early season). The organisers have done well to alter this, first with 2 times up Willunga, then last year with the HTF. So more of a hilly classics type profile. Willunga Hill is far from the hardest climb in the area (Penny's Hill, the descent, is actually steeper), but that stage has endured due to spectator-friendliness and fabulous community support.

There are two big changes this year - the Corkscrew Road climb, and the increase in the Stirling loop from three to six times around. The climb up Corkscrew is definitely hard, but relatively short. The descent is a screamer, only ~7 K to the finish, and pretty curvy. So not a descent that a group is going to have much luck chasing on, but a skilled descender could do well.

The profile of the Stirling loop is pretty lumpy, and increasing the loops from three to six will likely sap the sprinters legs. (sorry Bling)

Overall this race favours the puncheurs for the overall,with stages 1, 4, and 6 grist for the quicks. Of course opportunists can always surprise, and the weather can intervene. At this point we're having a cooling trend but 2 weeks is a long time. They are skipping the windy Fleurieu this year, but the winds can also play up in the Barrossa. (BTW, Ballarat for the Nats is looking decidedly cool, forecast for Sunday is for top of 18C with showers. I'll be there as well)

So Gerro, Gilbert, Valverde (if he comes, Movistar haven't announced yet), CAS
Kash, for the GC, Watch out for Adam Hansen. Greipel will be hard to beat for the sprints, but a lot will try. Don't know who OGE are sending, but my bets are O'Grady, Goss, Cam Meyer, Gerro, Matthews, Clarke, and ??. (Durbridge, Bobridge, Howard-------?)

I'd like to see them add a hill climb TT (Mt Lofty?) someday, they could do it on road bikes.

See you on Willunga Hill?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Thanks for your preview, Tragic. I was thinking about Corkscrew Road climb and how long it actually was. Profile didn't seem overly detailed in that respect. Someone could definitely get away and stay away on that climb. Who knows?

 

[Tragic]

Thanks for your preview, Tragic. I was thinking about Corkscrew Road climb and how long it actually was. Profile didn't seem overly detailed in that respect. Someone could definitely get away and stay away on that climb. Who knows?

It's only a little over 2K, but very steep in parts. If a good descender can get a gap at the top he won't be caught. On the other hand there probably won't be a big gap at the finish.

 

[jens_attacks]

if the old willunga hill is the alpe d'huez of south australia then we should call corkscrew the aussie mortirolo

because i was interested in this new corkscrew road climb:

overall 3,7 km@6,3%

the first 2 kms are easy at 4%

after, you have 1,7 at 8,8%,there are some little hairpins too which are great for an attacker.
the problem is if the attacker can put a nice gap at the top,there are still 7 kms to the finish

 

[theyoungest]

if the old willunga hill is the alpe d'huez of south australia then we should call corkscrew the aussie mortirolo

overall 3,7 km@6,3%

the first 2 kms are easy at 4%

after, you have 1,7 at 8,8%,there are some little hairpins too which are great for an attacker.
the problem is if the attacker can put a nice gap at the top,there are still 7 kms to the finish

Let me quote my own post from a few pages back. This I found on Google:

Corkscrew is a 2.48km climb (starting at the bridge) that has 3 distinct sections and has an average gradient of 9.5%. The first relatively straight section (about 1km) is 8 - 12% gardient, and then comes the mini Alpe D'Huez - only 4 short hairpins covering about 700m, but the gradient sits at 15 - 17% on the straight bits, from there the last 700m slowly levels out to 7% at the end (from about 11%), and then comes the 135 degree corner and straight down Montacute.

It sounds quite hard, surely for the allrounders like EBH it could be a bit of a problem. Yes, there's still 7 kms to the finish, but it's 7 kms of technical descent, apparently.

 

[search]

Yes, there's still 7 kms to the finish, but it's 7 kms of technical descent, apparently.

no, not at all, there is barely a corner in there

 

[greenedge]

So Gerro, Gilbert, Valverde (if he comes, Movistar haven't announced yet), CAS
Kash, for the GC, Watch out for Adam Hansen. Greipel will be hard to beat for the sprints, but a lot will try. Don't know who OGE are sending, but my bets are O'Grady, Goss, Cam Meyer, Gerro, Matthews, Clarke, and ??. (Durbridge, Bobridge, Howard-------?)

I'd like to see them add a hill climb TT (Mt Lofty?) someday, they could do it on road bikes.

See you on Willunga Hill?

Great Post.
I shall be there on Wilunga.
Bobridge does not ride on OGE any more- he rides for Rabobank/Blanco now.

 

[Wilba60]

So Gerro, Gilbert, Valverde (if he comes, Movistar haven't announced yet), CAS
Kash, for the GC, Watch out for Adam Hansen. Greipel will be hard to beat for the sprints, but a lot will try. Don't know who OGE are sending, but my bets are O'Grady, Goss, Cam Meyer, Gerro, Matthews, Clarke, and ??. (Durbridge, Bobridge, Howard-------?)

No Howard either, he will be at San Luis and as Greenedge mentions, Bobridge is no longer at OGE

 

[Christian]

Hello, does anyone know whether Will Clarke will get a ride with UniSA again? Last year it worked out nicely for him since he won a stage.

 

[Ferminal]

I don't think Argos would appreciate that.

 

[theyoungest]

Of course they would, they'll have 8 riders in the race.

 

[Tragic]

Great Post.
I shall be there on Wilunga.
Bobridge does not ride on OGE any more- he rides for Rabobank/Blanco now.

Thanks, my bad.

 

[Tragic]

no, not at all, there is barely a corner in there

You're either being facetious or haven't been there. The first 2 Ks from the top to the hamlet of Montacute is a nearly continuous set of S bends - no hairpins but at least one is sharp enough for a 25KPH sign. On a closed road a skilled,nervy descender could make up a lot of time (or come to lots of grief!)

Drove the climb and descent this morning, will post more detail.

 

[search]

You're either being facetious or haven't been there. The first 2 Ks from the top to the hamlet of Montacute is a nearly continuous set of S bends - no hairpins but at least one is sharp enough for a 25KPH sign. On a closed road a skilled,nervy descender could make up a lot of time (or come to lots of grief!)

Drove the climb and descent this morning, will post more detail.

thanks

no, I have never been there, I have just had a look at it on the map

 

[Tragic]

Let me quote my own post from a few pages back. This I found on Google:



It sounds quite hard, surely for the allrounders like EBH it could be a bit of a problem. Yes, there's still 7 kms to the finish, but it's 7 kms of technical descent, apparently.

I drove the climb and descent this morning, here's what I got. My percentages are guesses, yours could be more accurate, and some of my distances are approximate ( it's a little hard to drive, read the odometer AND write down your readings.)

KM

0 – Junction Corkscrew Rd and Gorge Rd. Gently curving up to
1 – One lane bridge. A few curves kicking up to ~4-5 %
1.8 Straightens out and gradually increases in pitch
2.4 Kicks up again, series of hairpin bends. Guessing 8 – 10 %, more on the bends. I think this is the steepest part
3.2 Eases off just a bit, short straight section then a couple more hairpins
3.7 Top and junction with Montacute Road. Descent not as steep as the climb, and no hairpins (but one bend sharp enough to have a 25/KPH sign). I would say steady 5 – 7% and many S bends
~7 Hamlet of Montacute. Pitch drops to ?2-4% , still curvy but gentler
~11 Roundabout, road widens, few curves. From Roundabout to finish~1.5 K later, is still down but only ~1%

It will be a VERY fast 7 K

The road surface between the top and Montacute is pretty rough.

I'm not prone to bold predictions, but would be very surprised if there are any sprinters left or any kind of organised chase on this descent. Possible scenario is small group at the top with a pretty exciting descending race (ala Mendriso?)
There probably won't be any big gaps between GC contenders, but none of them can afford to relax on this one.

Hard part is figuring out where to be, the top of the Corkscrew would be great but will be hard to get to.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Clearly Meyer is on very good form. Should be tough to beat on Wilunga.

 

[mc_mountain]

Clearly Meyer is on very good form. Should be tough to beat on Wilunga.

Its prediction like that that got you a JVDB avatar.

Just dont see the logic, a strong crit performance isnt suddenly gonna mean he is capable of a great performance on Old Wilunga Hll.

Its unlikely he'll even be the leader for his team.

 

[Tragic]

Hello, does anyone know whether Will Clarke will get a ride with UniSA again? Last year it worked out nicely for him since he won a stage.

He's riding with Argos.

 

[Tragic]

Its prediction like that that got you a JVDB avatar.

Just dont see the logic, a strong crit performance isnt suddenly gonna mean he is capable of a great performance on Old Wilunga Hll.

Its unlikely he'll even be the leader for his team.

He's done pretty well in this race before

 

[mc_mountain]

He's done pretty well in this race before

in a very different set of circumstances.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Its prediction like that that got you a JVDB avatar.

Just dont see the logic, a strong crit performance isnt suddenly gonna mean he is capable of a great performance on Old Wilunga Hll.

Its unlikely he'll even be the leader for his team.

It is not an official prediction. From what others on here have said and how strong his performance was, it wouldn't surprise me if he is targetting the TDU. I have always said that the hype around Meyer is unjustified until he proves in the big races.

 

[PCutter]

...Just dont see the logic, a strong crit performance isnt suddenly gonna mean he is capable of a great performance on Old Wilunga Hll...

Its Wilunga Hill, not Angrilu.