2013 Tour de France, Stage 15: Givors - Mont Ventoux 242.5 Km

[goggalor]

Froome is scared. His team is a mess
Im pretty sure he will go full gas and take 2 minutes

Hope so. I can't see Froome rolling quietly into second. He'll either blow up or crush everyone.

 

[richard_91]

Quintana ftw.

Hope that the action will start from the bottom of the Ventoux, with Kreuziger and Ten Dam to do ping pong attacks, forcing Froome to respond; hopefully exhausting him, and then Contador and Mollema to take 1.5 min on him (in my dreams... very wet dreams...)

I could see Froome purely marking Contador, its a disrespect to the belkin guys but would save him a lot of energy and I think he would be confident that he could drop them regardless of their form, whereas he might not think that about a peak Contador.

 

[BigMac]

Pftt. Belktards will pay for todays ''eforts''. Movistar will set the pace from the bottom of the climb, Costa will be last Movistar working, Valverde and Quintana to explode then. Mollema and co. will wish it was only a nightmare

 

[burning]

had one.
i don't know i think for him it would be the best to not lose more than 30 seconds to froome. he will be maybe the strongest in the alpes

about froome, i had my feeling that he might have peaked in the wrong moment. pyrenees. we'll see.

I think you should seperate TT's and regular races in those records, nice work again anyway

 

[Cimber]

I could see Froome purely marking Contador, its a disrespect to the belkin guys but would save him a lot of energy and I think he would be confident that he could drop them regardless of their form, whereas he might not think that about a peak Contador.

And that's when Kreuziger makes his deadly move Joking. Ventoux will be survival for Saxo. They will go on the attack in the aple stages that have multiple climbs on each stage

 

[User Guide]

Froome and Quintana with 1.5km too the top will have 1.20 on the field.Froome too explode,Quintana wins and Froome only gains 20 secs on 3rd place man TGBM who once again paces it well.

 

[DirtyWorks]

Froome is scared. His team is a mess
Im pretty sure he will go full gas and take 2 minutes

I don't see this, but I don't know much.

Looking at wind forecasts, the wind is blowing like today on the way to Ventoux. The Ventoux wind meter is registering a steady breeze, slower than the valley. A quiet day is forecast for Sunday.

All the usual warnings about weather forecasts apply.

if Froome is smart, he marks the GC contenders and rides with them all the way into the finish. Or, he could deliver another alien performance. I certainly have no clue what kind of guy Froome is. That's what makes this stage so hard to watch.

 

[Christian]

Tony Martin ftw.

Cheers Hitch, thanks for bringing this back. Seems like an eternity ago when you look at Tony Martin today and all he has achieved in the meantime!

I am really excited for this. Mont Ventoux is my favourite MTF in cycling, of all the races. The last time we saw it was 4 years ago, so this is like christmas to me if christmas was only every four years.

If Quintana and/or Andy go all in, it will be like christmas and new year's

 

[Alpechraxler]

Peter Sagan didn't grow that beard for nothing.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

The Sky train will do most of the Ventoux climb, then Quintana will try and attack but gets wheeled in by small group of favorites. It will end in a sprint to the line with smaller gaps to follow.

Froome will win.

My expectation for race action is rather low. Hopefully the stage can surprise.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

The Sky train will do most of the Ventoux climb, then Quintana will try and attack but gets wheeled in by small group of favorites. It will end in a sprint to the line with smaller gaps to follow.

Froome will win.

My expectation for race action is rather low. Hopefully the stage can surprise.

with who? ian stannard and geraint thomas?

 

[Dazed and Confused]

with who? ian stannard and geraint thomas?

Same as on stage 8. Three guys. This is not much harder.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Same as on stage 8. Three guys. This is not much harder.

3 guys? kiriyenka is gone, he was their third last guy, lopez is horrible and porte is completely demotivated

 

[Dazed and Confused]

3 guys? kiriyenka is gone, he was their third last guy, lopez is horrible and porte is completely demotivated

no. Vasil did very little work after Quintana attacked on stage 8:

Kennaugh did most (more than 10km which destroyed the group) then Porte for 3-4km leaving only a few riders.

Sky 1-2 on stage 8.

Don't think Porte will make it in front group this time, but Froome will win.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

it will depend on the wind, with lots of wind froome may win, otherwise should be quintana

 

[skidmark]

no. Vasil did very little work after Quintana attacked on stage 8:

Kennaugh did most (more than 10km which destroyed the group) then Porte for 3-4km leaving only a few riders.

Sky 1-2 on stage 8.

Don't think Porte will make it in front group this time, but Froome will win.

I dunno, I think on stage 8 the train was so effective because everyone's legs were jelly after the descent off the Pailhieres. There's no descent leading up to this one (maybe Pinot will do well!)

I really don't know what to expect, it almost totally depends on the racing and the weather. If it's windy, that means less attacks on Ventoux, but more possibility of riding hard on the flats to try to drop the less attentive or tire them out. The long distance can mean everyone is tired when they hit the climb if they go all out on the rest of the stage, or it could mean that everyone takes it easy and keeps their powder dry. I really don't know how Froome, Mollema, Quintana or most of the top guys do on long stages like this; I know Contador did well in the long, gruelling Giro stages but that was pre-ban. Valverde has won LBL and placed in Worlds so he's got an engine for distance, but now he's 12 minutes back. Maybe he and Costa go early (in the stage or on Ventoux) and then kill themselves for Quintana? Or same scenario with Saxo riders instead?

I'll just watch and hope not to be disappointed, as I usually am with Tour mountain stages.

 

[Christian]

Same as on stage 8. Three guys. This is not much harder.

I don't think this will work. For starters, Mont Ventoux is 21 km and Ax 3 Domaines is 8km. I didn't see a profile of Ax so I don't know how it compares but at Ventoux especially the bottom is really steep and difficult. At the very maximum they'll have 3 riders helping Froome but I don't think it'll be that many.

My prediction is Froome will be isolated not even halfway up the climb

 

[Ruudz0r]

What team is going to control the break in this stage? SKY probably wants to take it easy (depends on who is in the break ofcourse), and I dont think many teams think they can beat Froome on the ventoux.

 

[thehook]

Well Just my .02$. I think if Belkin and Saxo play this right they can really screw the Dog.
Both teams set a good hard tempo early on. Ten Dam & Kreuzinger launch. The Dog has to chase or lose the Tour. Quintana just sit in. Dog catches the attack. Valverde hit, Contador hit, Attack sit in, Mollema hit, Quintana launch....Dog goes for the dirt nap or he goes full *** and buries the Tour! If he cracks. The rest fight for the tour now they are on virtual same time and we have a HUGE race the rest of the way.

Pipe Dream for me! As a fan I just hope for a great race.

I'll be tuned in. Enjoy Everyone!

 

[Linkinito]

25°C at the start in Givors.
North wind all day, 20 km/h. So 220 easy kilometers with tailwind but the final kilometers will be against the wind.
34°C in Bédoin (in the shades - probably 40°C in plain sun). Probably 26-27°C at the summit of Ventoux (in plain sun as there's no trees to shelter).

This stage is going to be brutal. The Ventoux legend will talk again after the 2009 dud.
Expect some big breakdowns.

As a matter of facts, the latest stage which was longer than this one and ended into an HC MTF was Luchon-Arcalis in 1997 (252.5 km). Lodève-Mont Ventoux in 2002 was 220 km long.
Never a stage featuring the Mont Ventoux (as a pass or a MTF) was so long.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Anyone predicting Froome won't win this is living in dream land.

 

[airstream]

Well Just my .02$. I think if Belkin and Saxo play this right they can really screw the Dog.
Both teams set a good hard tempo early on. Ten Dam & Kreuzinger launch. The Dog has to chase or lose the Tour. Quintana just sit in. Dog catches the attack. Valverde hit, Contador hit, Attack sit in, Mollema hit, Quintana launch....Dog goes for the dirt nap or he goes full *** and buries the Tour! If he cracks. The rest fight for the tour now they are on virtual same time and we have a HUGE race the rest of the way.

Pipe Dream for me! As a fan I just hope for a great race.

I'll be tuned in. Enjoy Everyone!

No, like a fan you are interested in everyone riding against Froome. Or if he launches an attack from 5 to go and gains 1 min, you will enjoy the race?

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I don't think this will work. For starters, Mont Ventoux is 21 km and Ax 3 Domaines is 8km. I didn't see a profile of Ax so I don't know how it compares but at Ventoux especially the bottom is really steep and difficult. At the very maximum they'll have 3 riders helping Froome but I don't think it'll be that many.

My prediction is Froome will be isolated not even halfway up the climb

Kennaugh was driving the front group (and thinning it in the process) on both Paliheres and Ax 3 on stage 8. Unless the form is gone there is no reason he can't do it again. So the Sky "heavies" takes 3km, Kennaugh 10km, Porte 5km, that leaves 3-4 km for Froome.

What can disrupt this is aggressive racing on the first and middle part of the stage, which could take out all Sky riders except the three mentioned by name above before the Ventoux climb. Should this happen we will have a proper race on our hands. Otherwise I predict a sprint for the line.

 

[karlboss]

If Froome makes it to the last climb with the other GC contenders there's is no time to be made, attacking, counter attacking to be done, his tactics then are simple. Pick one or two riders match their attacks and then attack himself. If he can be isolated early again it's another story, though i don't know how likely this is over cat 3s and 4s. I'd think teams would look to limit their losses here and attack another day.

Break to take it.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

If Froome makes it to the last climb with the other GC contenders there's is no time to be made, attacking, counter attacking to be done, his tactics then are simple. Pick one or two riders match their attacks and then attack himself. If he can be isolated early again it's another story, though i don't know how likely this is over cat 3s and 4s. I'd think teams would look to limit their losses here and attack another day.

Break to take it.

Dismantling Sky on the early and mid race hills can be done imo, but it requires serious risk taking from 1 (or even better 2 teams). Garmin with another chaos attack can make this a spectacular day, but lets not forget that most of Garmin's GC riders were lost in the process during stage 9.

What about BMC? Are they hoping everybody ahead of Evans will fall apart or do they plan to use the resources at some point?