2013 Tour of California: Stage 6: San Jose TT (31 km)

[El Oso]

Tour Med ITT was very exposed and very windy, and obviously in February. Not sure I'd use it as much of a comparison to be honest,

I think I've heard they're going to have a headwind going into the climb. If my calculations are right they'll have about 12.25km into a head/cross wind with a 800m "climb" on the small crosswind portion, then do that climb.

The stage could be interesting.

 

[cineteq]

Will Tejay finally win a 1-week stage race? It sure looks like so.

 

[maxmartin]

Will Tejay finally win a 1-week stage race? It sure looks like so.

it would be his first ever world tour win. Debating whether drive to see it in person, or watch it at home.

 

[Afrank]

Will Tejay finally win a 1-week stage race? It sure looks like so.

Most definitely, he's going to dominate the TT. I really want to see him win here.

 

[l.Harm]

it would be his first ever world tour win. Debating whether drive to see it in person, or watch it at home.

World Tour?

 

[hiero2]

Here they are talking about doing a bike change for the last hill:
cyclingnews tough-time-trial-route-to-test-tour-of-california-contenders

I just ran some back-of-the-envelope calculations, and they will have to go up the last 2.7 km some 6-9 kmh faster, AT LEAST, to make up the time a bike change will lose. I figured on one minute, even, lost for a bike change. Realistically, I think it should be more like a minute and 15 seconds, given the deceleration time, and the match burnt getting back to speed.

I don't know what rigs they would run in the first portion - but that is a big kmh difference, on that last hill, they would need to make up the time lost, no?

 

[will10]

i think you are massively overestimating the time taken to switch bikes. Even an unplanned emergency switch would be much quicker than that, considerably less for a planned change.

 

[hiero2]

Tbh I find the lack of GC competition a tad boring. Only Rogers and TJ with a real shot, and TJ just seem that much stronger atm. The sidewind stage we had last night was good though.

A tad boring? Party-pooper, dude! I'll tell ya this, I had little interest in the ToC at ALL this year - I think it is gonna die for trying to compete with the Giro, but hey, maybe it will work out better - more on that in a sec. Yesterday's stage was about as boring as they get, imo - but it was exciting, too, because they actually made a move that caused a selection for GC. VERY smart move! Then Jens lit it up in the last 5K for a top-notch exciting finish.

I liked the ToC when I was living in CA, as I could go watch. That is always fun, even if the stage is a dud. Now I'm in MA, and it is tv coverage for me.

My thinking when they moved to the late spring time slot was "bad news, certain death". But, take a look at BMC this year - TJ in CA, and Evans in the Giro? Man, oh man - could this promise huge things for Le Tour this year for BMC? If it does, other teams may follow suit in future years, and ToC will have a place.

 

[El Oso]

Here they are talking about doing a bike change for the last hill:
cyclingnews tough-time-trial-route-to-test-tour-of-california-contenders

I just ran some back-of-the-envelope calculations, and they will have to go up the last 2.7 km some 6-9 kmh faster, AT LEAST, to make up the time a bike change will lose. I figured on one minute, even, lost for a bike change. Realistically, I think it should be more like a minute and 15 seconds, given the deceleration time, and the match burnt getting back to speed.

I don't know what rigs they would run in the first portion - but that is a big kmh difference, on that last hill, they would need to make up the time lost, no?

I heard from a Vancansoleil rep last weekend that they are planning on changing bikes.

 

[maxmartin]

I heard from a Vancansoleil rep last weekend that they are planning on changing bikes.

I hope Degendt or Wstra can make some decent competition against TJVG, they should not make it too easy for TJVG.

 

[hiero2]

i think you are massively overestimating the time taken to switch bikes. Even an unplanned emergency switch would be much quicker than that, considerably less for a planned change.

Ok - help me out. From the article

But the time trial rule prohibiting a support vehicle from passing the rider means mechanics must wait until the rider stops in front of them before hopping out of the car, removing the bike from the rack and getting it under the rider. Bontrager director Axel Merckx said that maneuver could take as much as 30-45 seconds, as well as disrupting the rider's rhythm

30-45 seconds. Just to get the bike under the rider. Now, I think that DOES include deceleration, so maybe I might be a little high. I think 30-45 seconds is a damn GOOD bike change time tho - no room for mistakes or miscommunication or problems. If the derailleur misses one shift - the rider is stuffed.

But Axel Merckx is a better expert than me - so 30-45 seconds. Then the rider burns a match getting back up to speed, and he's lost another 15 seconds, no? That leaves me with 45-60 seconds, and that is why I picked one minute.

 

[hiero2]

But, even if it is only 45 seconds, that still means a bike change will likely have to make a 5 kmh difference in speed up the hill just to break even for the time loss. It depends, amongst other things, on what the average speed up the hill will be.

I'll be watching this TT, youbetcha.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

While you're discussing bike changes a woman's tt is on live. Who talking? She knows about cycling.

 

[will10]

I think if you're going to try a manoeuvre like that you have to pick a slow speed area - just before the top of a drag, a corner etc. otherwise I agree it's unlikely to be worthwhile. If the rider and the team know where they're going to change I think you could be back underway very quickly. A normal bike change in a TT won't cost you 30s, a planned one much less so if there's a suitable slow speed area to do the switch.

 

[taiwan]

Ooh, chute. Sux.

 

[screaming fist]

Hope she'll be okay, looked really painful

 

[Califootman]

While you're discussing bike changes a woman's tt is on live. Who talking? She knows about cycling.

Kristin Armstong, maybe?

Ouch. Amber Neben hit those rocks pretty hard.

 

[Netserk]

Purito did a bike change in the Nevegal MTT in the Giro '11. That had only 5km of flat before the climb.

I doubt he'd have done so if it took 30s.

 

[El Oso]

I hope Degendt or Wstra can make some decent competition against TJVG, they should not make it too easy for TJVG.

They could push him, but I still think TJVG beats at least one of them on the day, with my basis being that he took time on Westra on the Col d'Eze TT in Paris-Nice. I think Westra beats Rogers today.

Shame Westra lost all that time on Stage 2 and I don't know how a Dutchman gets caught out in an echelon in California. He could've given TJVG a run for his money.

 

[Leadbelly]

Yeah nasty. Took a real whack on the left hip.

Kristin Armstrong is doing a decent job on the commentary. Should just get her to continue on for the men's TT instead of P+P.

 

[manafana]

TVG hould do well in this hes looked really well all week, not sure who will be up tiehr with him, westra has been hit and miss, and DZ doesnt look in best of shape, mancebo tt any use?

 

[screaming fist]

Quite impressive Amber Neben continues after that crash.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Neben making her case for a 'hardest riders in the péloton' thread nomination.

 

[Christophe]

Have any women finished yet? Any times posted?

 

[RedheadDane]

TVG hould do well in this hes looked really well all week, not sure who will be up tiehr with him, westra has been hit and miss, and DZ doesnt look in best of shape, mancebo tt any use?

According to the live-update he crashed during training and is on the way to the hospital...


And Neben's out...