Miburo said:
The worst thing is that he can win it however he wants.
Attack on the poggio, attack in the descent or win the sprint. All valid options.
If I were 23 and a talented rider i would kill myself knowing i've to ride with this guy
well, I am not sure if the finish wasn't moved since last year, but if not, considering quite a distance after end of the poggio descent, I don't think attacking in the ascen or descent would be good for sagan, if he's in the attack alone. If Cancellara would be "stupid" enough to catch him and go with him, then it would be good tactics from sagan, he might even not wheelsuck cancellara as I think he would do him easily in the finish.
However, in my opinion, the best tactics from him would be just to attack on the ascent, and if somebody will join him, then go, if not, then just sit. If this is not successful, then try attacking on the descent to tear the peloton appart, but if this is not the cas, then sit again on the flat and hit it in the sprint. To his advantage also is, that if by any reason he's able to catch some attack on the poggio ascent, than he will be probably able to catch it on the descent. Having said that, if he plays the conlusion of MSR wisely, there's not a way he could lost.