2013 Vuelta a España CQ game

[Cyivel]

Well done Hitch!

Cheers for all the updates and work AC.

 

[batchuba]

Hate world. Revenge soon.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Tough luck batchuba

@The_Hitch22: @vamosalberto As you know, I have been Politically Exiled from CNF. Could you pick up my award for me In absentia in the vuelta cq thread?

Here I am

Hitch wanted to thank all his supporters and says that like Lenin in 1917 we are working on a way to get him back in and start a revolution

 

[Cyivel]

I'll do everything in my power to help Hitch get back some time tomorrow.

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

A respectable result for my Italian team. Thank for organising this Armchair.

 

[Afrank]

Congrats Hitch!

Thanks again Armchair for all your work on all the GT games this year.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

A respectable result for my Italian team. Thank for organising this Armchair.

I hadn't even noticed your theme. It was at least a little more subtle than your Giro tactic of choosing the nine Astana men. So was there some thread linking all your TdF picks too?

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

No. I tried to pick 9 sprinters, but I wanted two of the big three (Cav/Greipel/Sagan, I underrated Kittel a bit ) and I couldn't fit in another 7 'proper' sprinters with the remaining budget.

 

[mutschi]

Thanks Armchair for doing this again for us. Loved the stats. If you only put half the effort into your team selection next time I am sure you will win next time. Well done to the winner. Happy to see that the big rider name teams missed out this time.
My second game and first top 20. Happy with that especially finishing with only 4 riders, lost 5. Very satisfying to pick winner (Horner). Cheers from New Zealand.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Even though I didn't take part it was fun following. Congratulations Hitch and hats off to Armchair for all his work!

 

[murali]

Not last any more

Thank you Armchair for the effort that you have put in running this game. But more importantly, getting me hooked to this game, and helping me understand the game before the deadline.

Special thanks to search. the earnings percentage mechanism is something i will have to try out in the next gt.
Among the people who helped me directly and indirectly: Thank you Cyivel, afrank, Gerraint too fast, 18-valve,Maaaarten.


Congratulations to hitch. tough luck to batchuba.
And yes, I called right. The difference between the top 2 is just 11 points.

 

[The Hitch]

It was pretty thrilling to having given up all hope after Betancur's flop, see myself rise from 11th to 6th to 2nd to 1st over the final days and grasp it by a handful of points by the end.

Thats a huge tick off my bucket list,- won a cq game. No pressure ever again when selecting teams

Of course the real winner is Armchair for his tireless work and organization, daily updates etc over 3 gts.
A true forum legend.

 

[Jancouver]

Great game!
Congrats to our winner and thanks to Armchair for running this game!

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

Congratulations Hitch on winning the game and thanks AC for hosting the game.
Epic trolling from my team though with Betancur sick, Henao MIA, De Gendt DQ and Basso DNF. The icing on the cake was getting a mention for most 50%+ riders despite finish almost dead last

 

[Cyivel]

Not last any more

Thank you Armchair for the effort that you have put in running this game. But more importantly, getting me hooked to this game, and helping me understand the game before the deadline.

Special thanks to search. the earnings percentage mechanism is something i will have to try out in the next gt.
Among the people who helped me directly and indirectly: Thank you Cyivel, afrank, Gerraint too fast, 18-valve,Maaaarten.


Congratulations to hitch. tough luck to batchuba.
And yes, I called right. The difference between the top 2 is just 11 points.

No problem, glad whatever I said was helpful.

 

[Tuarts]

Hopes rode on Nibali's shoulders. Oh well.

Thanks for running these games all year Armchair. Much appreciated.

A 2nd and a 6th place. I wonder how that stacks up with everyone else who did an "Adam Hansen"?

 

[murali]

the best team, acc to me (with nibali) would be


HORNER**Christopher 891
NIBALI**Vincenzo 776
KONIG**Leopold 240
ROCHE**Nicolas 429
PINOT**Thibaut 218
KOHLER**Martin 30
ZANDIO ECHAIDE**Xabier 28
STAMSNIJDER**Tom 15
VANOTTI**Alessandro 15

Last 2 are fillers for reaching 9.
earnings is 2,642.

The combination of Nibali, Horner, Roche is sufficient to push the score to 2096 (of 2737 cost). With Konig(the cheapest in top-10 GC), score moves to 2336 (of 2964).

No one had thought of such a combination. So, this game is one counter example for the claim: interested people will predict the general outcome of an event with a fair probability.

(oc, there is always the counter claim that the sample size here (of 41) is too small.)

Nobody really expected Horner to win. So, if we remove horner from the equation, the team:

NIBALI  Vincenzo
CAMANO ORTUZAR  Iker
STAMSNIJDER  Tom
VANOTTI  Alessandro
KONIG  Leopold
ROCHE  Nicolas
BARGUIL  Warren
RATTO  Daniele
PINOT  Thibaut

brings in 1,993 pts with a cost of 3498.

with the horner-moreno combination(leaving out nibali)

HORNER  Christopher
MORENO FERNANDEZ  Daniel
POZZOVIVO  Domenico
NERZ  Dominik
KONIG  Leopold
ROCHE  Nicolas
BARGUIL  Warren
RATTO  Daniele
PINOT  Thibaut

earnings of 2862 (of cost 3494). even if nibali had won stage 20 instead of elissonde, this team combination would still have performed much better than the horner nibali combine.
oc, strangely no one had selected Moreno, though guys slightly costlier/cheaper than him were chosen.


Among the real teams, radio shack had a total gain of 41 % with the initial cost of 2923 points. The next two, in terms of percentage gains were FDJ and Net App, with 29 % gain. Initial cost of netapp was a mere 1461, and fdj was 1571.

 

[Cyivel]

Not my work but search's so credit to him

Calculated the best team as

Horner
Roche
Moreno
Pozzovivo
Konig
Pinot
Matthews
Barguil
Brajkovic

A cost of 3491 returning 2910.

Also search's work but out of the people who did all 3 GT's Comodoro got the most points, you came in 4th Tuarts.

 

[murali]

i missed brajkovic
i could have brought in matthews then.

Probably i should stop lazing around and actually write that simple knapsack code, and push the result.

 

[murali]

the combination costs

HORNER**Christopher
MATTHEWS**Michael
BARGUIL**Warren
BRAJKOVIC**Janez
ROCHE**Nicolas
MORENO FERNANDEZ**Daniel
POZZOVIVO**Domenico
KONIG**Leopold
PINOT**Thibaut

result 2910, but cost is 3640.

will write a 0/1 knpasack solution and test it when i feel like coding.

 

[hilltopfinisher]

Hopes rode on Nibali's shoulders. Oh well.

Thanks for running these games all year Armchair. Much appreciated.

A 2nd and a 6th place. I wonder how that stacks up with everyone else who did an "Adam Hansen"?

Last year I was 8th, 9th and 2nd, but pretty rubbish this year apart from 3rd in this.

2013 multiple top 10s

Comodoro Giro 10th,Tour 5th, Vuelta 9th
Kazistuta, Giro 5th, Tour 8th
Cyivel, Giro 8th, Tour 10th, Vuelta 7th
Tuarts, Giro 2nd, Vuelta 6th

Afrank (giro) and Geraint too fast (vuelta) got a top 10 in a grand tour game and a top 10 in the cobbles.

 

[Cyivel]

result 2910, but cost is 3640.

Yeah just checked that myself does seem to be 3640.

You seem to be on top of things so I'll leave it to you fam.