2013 Vuelta a España, Stage 20: Avilés→Alto de L´Angliru (142 Km)

[gospina]

I'm hoping they do, without any chance of a good GC placing going in the break is there only way of getting some success. And tomorrows is pretty much their last chance.

I'd like to see Anacona and Betancur in the break as well. I don't think it would put in danger their worlds chances too much. If anything it should at least give them some good training.

Uran, Henao, Anacona, Sarmiento and Betancur should all go on a breakway.
Looks like Quintana was already named leader for the worlds, 2nd between Henao and Uran. Only way for Betancur to move up is to do something here.
Not only the worlds, but also prep for Il Lombardia for most of them.

 

[maxmartin]

Nibali is playing poker in the last two stages, he is saving everything he can for this one!!!

 

[Escarabajo]

Am I missing something?
There are only 51 posts in this thread?

Where are the other posts from the race??

 

[VeloHuman]

When Chris Horner attacked on the Stage 10 climb of Alto de Hazallanas, it seemed like Nibali's first reaction was basically "whatever," and then a minute or two later he thought "well, I guess I should go after him to make sure he doesn't get too far up the road." Fast forward to today and I bet he rues taking Horner too lightly. At the same time, long and brutal sustained efforts are Nibali's thing, so this stage suits him more than some of these other recent finishes that have favored more explosive types.

 

[Jancouver]

34x28 FTW or even 34x32. The guy with smallest gear will win. Just like last time. Just ask Wigo running standard ring in 2011 and spinning 30rpm while Cobo was doing double the rpm on compact ring.

 

[Izzy eviel]

Nibs can win this if has anything left. I remember Bola del Mundo.

 

[murali]

Uran, Henao, Anacona, Sarmiento and Betancur should all go on a breakway.
Looks like Quintana was already named leader for the worlds, 2nd between Henao and Uran. Only way for Betancur to move up is to do something here.
Not only the worlds, but also prep for Il Lombardia for most of them.

I have been betting on the colombians in this vuelta for such a long time; I don't know whether these guys are really up for it. Uran is the only colombian who seems to have a semblence of form.

unless they showed something extraordinary today, these riders are going to waste the WCRR spot.

 

[murali]

KOM jersey

Thank you.

That rules out Horner nicking it by default in the event of the stage win then. Will be interesting to see if Ratto is up for it and how the CJR boys decide to play it. Personally I hope Edet can hold onto it as I think he deserves it with the aggression he's shown, especially early on in the race. But then again, Txurruka has been in virtually every break going so wouldn't begrudge him the jersey either.

not exactly.

with the cat3, cat2, cat1, and cat ESP climbs, there is the theoretical maximum of 33 points.

SO even Uran with 6 pts currently can win the KOM classification theoretically.

Ratto, i am not sure he can handle the climbs. Unless, of course, he is in a break.

For Hroner/Txurrula (22 pts) to win the jersey, he needs to come second in the cat-1 climb and win the stage.

Cardoso needs an additional second place in the cat-2 climb, or he should win both the last 2 climbs.

Roche/Nibali (19pts) need to win the cat-2,cat-1, cat ESP climb to get the jersey.

Everything said, all the computations are assuming that the other contenders will not get a single point. And i didn't knowingly name a single climb.

Realistically, Edet should be part of the break again today. he should take as many points as possible, and ensure that there is more than 15 pts gaps before Angliru. Ratto would also have a similar idea.

The difference between Edet and Roche/Nibali of 19 pts is not at all safe. Roche/Nibali will get points in angliru. Also, Roche will want to salvage a jersey, now that his 5th spot is almost confirmed.

So, anything can happen, as far as KOM is concerned.

 

[Ferminal]

If Edet gets in the break he wins it, pretty simple.

 

[murali]

points jersey

The way points jersey looks now is:

Valverde - 136
Roche - 122 (-14)
J-rod - 117 (-5)
Moreno - 116 (-1)
Horner - 106 (-10)
Nibali - 97 (-9)
EBH - 80 (-17)

The theoretical maximum is 62 points over the 2 stages. 12 pts will be for intermediate sprints.

Theoretically, this jersey is still very much open.


Realistically, the only change in top-6 can happen only on today's stage.

Moreno/j-rod could go for stage win and hope that valv/roche are not in the top-14 of stage. which is of course BS.
Realistically, Roche is the only person who could challenge the jersey. And that too, if he goes for a long range suicidal attack.

This jersey is another thing to watch out for, apart from red.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

The way points jersey looks now is:

Valverde - 136
Roche - 122 (-14)
J-rod - 117 (-5)
Moreno - 116 (-1)
Horner - 106 (-10)
Nibali - 97 (-9)
EBH - 80 (-17)

The theoretical maximum is 62 points over the 2 stages. 12 pts will be for intermediate sprints.

Theoretically, this jersey is still very much open.


Realistically, the only change in top-6 can happen only on today's stage.

Moreno/j-rod could go for stage win and hope that valv/roche are not in the top-14 of stage. which is of course BS.
Realistically, Roche is the only person who could challenge the jersey. And that too, if he goes for a long range suicidal attack.

This jersey is another thing to watch out for, apart from red.

Not really, Valverde has this in the bag and it's not close.

 

[murali]

Not really, Valverde has this in the bag and it's not close.

I expect changes. Probably Valverde has this in the bag.

But, the assumption there will be that he is extremely happy with the green jersey and 3rd place podium AND j-rod is happy with 4th spot. AND, of course, there is no way Valv will cook. Also, nibali and horner are the only 2 people to fight for the red jersey.

My point being: Green jersey, as it is right now, is strongly tied to the GC competition. the KOM jersey, on the other hand, can be fought independently.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I expect changes. Probably Valverde has this in the bag.

But, the assumption there will be that he is extremely happy with the green jersey and 3rd place podium AND j-rod is happy with 4th spot. AND, of course, there is no way Valv will cook.

Green jersey, as it is right now, is strongly tied to the GC competition. the KOM jersey, on the other hand, can be fought independently.

Valverde will just participate in the sprint in Madrid tomorrow and noone will be able to do anything about it. Hell, Valverde might even win in Madrid tomorrow with this sprinting field

 

[murali]

Valverde will just participate in the sprint in Madrid tomorrow and noone will be able to do anything about it. Hell, Valverde might even win in Madrid tomorrow with this sprinting field

why not? Valverde with 25 points for green and 10 sec for red.


i was talking about points an dKOm competition just to say that this is very much different from the pathetic TdF that we had; to some extent Giro, in the recent past.

 

[greenedge]

I'll go with Valverde- Horner gifts it to him

 

[jaylew]

Can't wait for this one. Last road stage of a GT is a tough mtf and the top 3 are within 1 minute and the top 4 within 2 minutes. To top it off, I like all the riders in the top 4, so I'll be happy with whoever winds up in the red jersey. That said, I'd like to see Horner win it, followed by Valverde or Purito.

 

[manafana]

Yeah the whole 3rd day in mountains in row really makes me doubt Nibali can do anything here. Horner certainly is good out of saddle which helps on a climb like this.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Nibs can win this if has anything left. I remember Bola del Mundo.

But then he was defending a lead, not attacking one.
So not the same

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

I am not usually giving up on my riders, but I doubt Nibbles can take down the american. I have been wrong before hough

 

[jens_attacks]

But then he was defending a lead, not attacking one.
So not the same

horner is twice the climber mosquera was, even if i love eze

the only question that remains is if purito can drop nibali out of the podium. and it's definitely doable

 

[Climbing]

horner is twice the climber mosquera was, even if i love eze

the only question that remains is if purito can drop nibali out of the podium. and it's definitely doable

And this Nibali is twice the rider that was back then... but to me he doesn't seem top form at all, maybe he will be in a month for the WCC, maybe his season has been too long and it's over.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Valverde will just participate in the sprint in Madrid tomorrow and noone will be able to do anything about it. Hell, Valverde might even win in Madrid tomorrow with this sprinting field

Mollema will beat him

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

And this Nibali is twice the rider that was back then... but to me he doesn't seem top form at all, maybe he will be in a month for the WCC, maybe his season has been too long and it's over.

Well he did say before the Vuelta that he would try to go for gc if he felt ok, if not he would go for stage victories.

It doesn't sound as he thought his form was good enough at that time to even fight for a good gc spot.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Mollema will beat him

I think you're thinking of Gesink?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

And this Nibali is twice the rider that was back then... but to me he doesn't seem top form at all, maybe he will be in a month for the WCC, maybe his season has been too long and it's over.

A month? There's half a month to the Worlds. I'm starting to question Nibali's chances at the WCRR.