2013 WC in Firenze - Who will win?

[Christian]

I hope Belgians don't bank everything on Gilbert because he won't win it IMO.

I think they should do it like Italy some years ago, when Bettini went in as defending champion and everyone was looking at him, while Ballan went away and snagged the win. Belgium has riders who would be capable of doing that with Van Avermaet and Bakelants.

The question is whether everyone will be looking at Gilbert, I don't think he has the same status as Sagan and Cancellara this year

 

[hrotha]

I was thinking Sagan, then I was going to vote for Nibbles simply because I want him to win, but then I had a sudden revelation.

Valverde.

Oh gods that guy is so going to win. I just know it. Ugh.

 

[michaeldaddow]

Too much climbing for Cancellara, who was great at Mendrisio with a sh*tload of climbing? And too much climbing for Sagan, who won a freaking mountain stage in Suisse by being the only one in the top 20 of that stage not being a GC-rider.
Right.

And then you enter Wegmann in the top 5 who's not even remotely close to Cancellara and Sagan in climbing ability. Let's just throw logic straight out of the window

Cancellara and Sagan will be too heavily marked, both have weak teams. Wegmann is on super form and 11th in Mendrisio.

 

[Ruudz0r]

Fred Rodriguez without a doubt.

Not that your serious but Fast Freddy gave up his spot to Busche because he thought they needed more climbers.

 

[Dedelou]

Cancellara and Sagan will be too heavily marked, both have weak teams. Wegmann is on super form and 11th in Mendrisio.

This is the WC and unlike any race in the calendar all the participants are stars in their own right and the first 250 km of the event takes care of eliminating the non contenders. Any survivor on the last lap will be a marked man. Even though some will be more marked than others, nobody will let somebody go unless they can't cover the strength of the attack. The course is very hilly but the finish is not and uphill terror. Makes me think of Plouay

 

[greenedge]

I hope Belgians don't bank everything on Gilbert because he won't win it IMO.

I think they should do it like Italy some years ago, when Bettini went in as defending champion and everyone was looking at him, while Ballan went away and snagged the win. Belgium has riders who would be capable of doing that with Van Avermaet and Bakelants.

The question is whether everyone will be looking at Gilbert, I don't think he has the same status as Sagan and Cancellara this year

I thought it was Cunego as the person being looked at

 

[shalgo]

I thought it was Cunego as the person being looked at

"Definitely [a dream come true]," said Ballan after his victory. "I did not expect this; I knew I was going strong, but to win the worlds is always difficult. We all started the race for Paolo [Bettini], we ended up three in that move."

With defending champion Bettini going for an unprecedented third victory in succession – and having announced his intention to retire after the race – the Italian plan was to work for him. "Last night we did not have a second strategy," Ballan explained, "the plan was for Paolo and it was never to be like this. He was going very well, but he had all of Spain and the other nations [marking him]."

"I have to say thanks to Paolo," he added.

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/worlds08/?id=results/worlds086

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

This course suits young Chris Horner to a "T".

Seriously, I wouldn't mind seeing Canibali win it, though I think Sagan or Cancellara are going to have an epic war. I think Sagan still remembers what happened at the RVV.

 

[TheRossSeaParty]

After watching la Vuelta, the Canadian races, and now Tour of Britain I gotta say there are a lot of guys coming into form for the Worlds. I think this is going to be a very hard race to predict or control and we might very likely see a surprise winner, or one of the less famous names take it. I voted for Cancellara because if he can bring his Spring form or his Mendrisio legs then he will be very hard to beat in a race like this, but I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like Dan Martin be in there at the end with a shot at the rainbows. It's going to be exciting!

 

[Hugo Koblet]

According to the bookies (Skybet and Bet365 are the first sites with odds up), these are the favorites 10:

Name: Skybet odds - Bet365 odds

Cancellara: 5 - 4.75
Sagan: 5.5 - 5
Gilbert: 7.5 - 7.5
Nibali: 12 - 13
Valverde: 13 - 14
Rodriguez: 19 - 19
Martin: 21 - 21
Moreno: 17 - 23
Froome: 26 - 26
Voeckler: 26 - 26

Personally, I think Gilbert is overrated here while Quintana (34 - 34), Costa (67 - 51) and perhaps Froome are underrated.

 

[EnacheV]

The uncertainty around this race is so big that is reflected by the bookmakers

Bakelants 81
Porte/Atapuma 200
Rui Costa 51
Cadel 51

etc

In fact if you exclude Cancelara/Sagan (Gilbert 3rd favourite is lolz) you can safely bet on 15% of the peleton and still win

 

[movingtarget]

According to the bookies (Skybet and Bet365 are the first sites with odds up), these are the favorites 10:

Name: Skybet odds - Bet365 odds

Cancellara: 5 - 4.75
Sagan: 5.5 - 5
Gilbert: 7.5 - 7.5
Nibali: 12 - 13
Valverde: 13 - 14
Rodriguez: 19 - 19
Martin: 21 - 21
Moreno: 17 - 23
Froome: 26 - 26
Voeckler: 26 - 26

Personally, I think Gilbert is overrated here while Quintana (34 - 34), Costa (67 - 51) and perhaps Froome are underrated.

The bookmakers seem to have it about right. Maybe a few others could be thrown in but I would be surprised if Costa, Froome or Quintana won. Even though they are good climbers it's a very different race to a stage of a grand tour and I think the intensity and the distance will bring many undone.

 

[del1962]

The bookmakers seem to have it about right. Maybe a few others could be thrown in but I would be surprised if Costa, Froome or Quintana won. Even though they are good climbers it's a very different race to a stage of a grand tour and I think the intensity and the distance will bring many undone.

What are the odds on Uran?

 

[gooner]

What are the odds on Uran?

He's 50/1 in Paddy Power over here. Now that you mention it.

 

[EnacheV]

Cancellara on main opponents

"The Spanish riders could be good, if they ride together… I'm sure Nibali will have a great Worlds because he showed he's in super shape at the Vuelta. But it'll be very difficult for him to win. Pozzato? I don’t know what he can do. If I was him, I wouldn't even turn up."

 

[Martin]

My pick is "any of the spanish" if there would be such as option.
They have so many options how to win this race (most probably that would be valverde winning a sprint for a small group of few riders), and if they won't, that would be their very own fail and a big surprise to me.
sagan and cancellara are no threat in this race, they have wak teams and i think they won't cooperate together. they'll finish exhausted in their own groups.

 

[Arredondo]

Cancellara on main opponents

"The Spanish riders could be good, if they ride together… I'm sure Nibali will have a great Worlds because he showed he's in super shape at the Vuelta. But it'll be very difficult for him to win. Pozzato? I don’t know what he can do. If I was him, I wouldn't even turn up."

Concerning Sagan he's definitely right, but for Pippo? Don't know really, in Montreal he was really good, so i wouldn't be surprised if he comes close.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Concerning Sagan he's definitely right, but for Pippo? Don't know really, in Montreal he was really good, so i wouldn't be surprised if he comes close.

You realise Sagan climbed better than Pippo in Montreal right?

I agree Pozzato might do okay though. Certainly if Fabian '>80kg' Cancellara and Sagan are top favourites, a good Pozzato should be able to survive the climbs as well. But yeah, for him it's probably outclimbed by the Spaniards, Colombians and Nibali, outsprinted by Sagan or outclassed by Cancellara.

 

[shalgo]

That is pretty funny from Cancellara. I'm not used to seeing trash talk from him; is it something personal between him and Pozzato? Pozzato is obviously not going to win from an attack (based on both ability and inclination), but if it comes down to a group of 15-20 at the finish, it is not inconceivable that he would still be there. And out of such a group, he would have to be one of the favorites to win the sprint.

 

[Sophistic82]

i dont get the love for cance from posters and bookies, his ability to climb 11 laps on this course with the best is questionable and even among the better climbers are better sprinters. monster late attack is possible but a more unlikely scenario, if the peloton is reduced to such a small size that other favs have no proper domestiques to bring a serious attacker back, then cance is most likely not part of the main group anymore.

 

[Arredondo]

You realise Sagan climbed better than Pippo in Montreal right?

I agree Pozzato might do okay though. Certainly if Fabian '>80kg' Cancellara and Sagan are top favourites, a good Pozzato should be able to survive the climbs as well. But yeah, for him it's probably outclimbed by the Spaniards, Colombians and Nibali, outsprinted by Sagan or outclassed by Cancellara.

Did he?

Of course Sagan is really good, but a lot of riders will look at him. Of course not much of a difference with other races, but now Sagan has to beat Cancellara, who is better at races 230 km+. With Pippo, i think he will get some space because he's not considered as a real danger. Pippo does not have a (small) chance because he's the strongest, but perhaps the smartest and due to his underdog-position.

 

[gerundium]

Cance is going to take it. People are misjudging the Fiesole imo. it's a long drag but not particularly steep, heavier rider should be able to handle it.

 

[movingtarget]

He's 50/1 in Paddy Power over here. Now that you mention it.

I actually think he's one of the better chances for Colombia. I don't think he was trying too hard in the Vuelta. Some riders ride for the GC while others just want to top off their training for the worlds.

 

[movingtarget]

That is pretty funny from Cancellara. I'm not used to seeing trash talk from him; is it something personal between him and Pozzato? Pozzato is obviously not going to win from an attack (based on both ability and inclination), but if it comes down to a group of 15-20 at the finish, it is not inconceivable that he would still be there. And out of such a group, he would have to be one of the favorites to win the sprint.

It's typical of Cancellara to play head games. Not necessarily trash talk. The trouble with teams like Spain is they often have too many options and personalities come into it. Cancellara's probably just trying to take pressure off himself as everyone will be looking for his back wheel. I don't think Pozzato has a chance in a race like this.

 

[Damiano]

I have to go with Alejandro Valverde. He's gonna be up there and his sprint is great. Of course, Sagan is a faster rider, but he hasn't impressed in sprints after 250km+.