2013 WC in Firenze - Who will win?

[Martin]

A 91-year-old winning a GT is far more likely than Cavendish winning the WCRR this year.

heh... it isn't such as impossible.
chris horner is like wine.. he gets better and better as the years pass by. it took him 20 years to win a grand tour, now it will take him another 20 years to win a WCH.
at 91, he should be able to win a team time trial on his own

 

[michaeldaddow]

Quintana will be there leader. I doubt Betancur will do anything, he was completely invisible the whole Vuelta. Usually a rider coming from the Vuelta that is targeting worlds will do something in the Vuelta to help them build form, but he did nothing. It's sad, cause the course is one that he could do well on. But he hasn't demonstrated that he has the form (I'd be happy if he did end up doing something though).

I sense some big things coming in the road race from Betancur and Pozzato and maybe even Samu.

 

[tomorrow]

wow, on bwin, there is 51 odds for Chris Horner wining the road race. I couldn't resist to put some money on him. Btw, 6 on Sagan is not that bad odds for his fans either. However phil having same odds as sagan quite a surprise for me, and alse giving the advantage on the side of "classic" riders in opossite to climbers with so big difference is surprise to me to. I certainly didn't expect ods 3,75 for fabs and 17 for Nibali and 19 for purito.

 

[webbie146]

wow, on bwin, there is 51 odds for Chris Horner wining the road race. I couldn't resist to put some money on him. Btw, 6 on Sagan is not that bad odds for his fans either. However phil having same odds as sagan quite a surprise for me, and alse giving the advantage on the side of "classic" riders in opossite to climbers with so big difference is surprise to me to. I certainly didn't expect ods 3,75 for fabs and 17 for Nibali and 19 for purito.

wow Nibali has a 17 odd? Might put some money on Nibs then.

 

[Grupetto1]

wow, on bwin, there is 51 odds for Chris Horner wining the road race. I couldn't resist to put some money on him. Btw, 6 on Sagan is not that bad odds for his fans either. However phil having same odds as sagan quite a surprise for me, and alse giving the advantage on the side of "classic" riders in opossite to climbers with so big difference is surprise to me to. I certainly didn't expect ods 3,75 for fabs and 17 for Nibali and 19 for purito.

Yeah I got Horner at 66 last week

 

[Pulpstar]

Chris Horner has more of a chance than some may think... I think.

 

[Ruudz0r]

I had a link yesterday to a chart with all intermediate times + finish times of all teams (dont know where I got it from maybe even from here). It updated very quickly (was even in front of most livestreams).

Is there one for the time trial for the U23 men today?

 

[nuvolablu]

http://static.sportresult.com/federations/uci/CR2013/

 

[Ruudz0r]

http://static.sportresult.com/federations/uci/CR2013/

Thank you very much!

 

[Netserk]

If you want to discuss betting, please use this thread:
The Cycling Betting Thread

 

[tomorrow]

If you want to discuss betting, please use this thread:
The Cycling Betting Thread

sorry, if I broke some forum rules, however I didn't want to discuss betting, I just wanted to point out, what bookies think about who will win the road race and mainly to the huge favouring punchers and classic riders over the climbers opposed to my oppinion, that it's somewhere close to 50:50.

 

[Netserk]

sorry, if I broke some forum rules, however I didn't want to discuss betting, I just wanted to point out, what bookies think about who will win the road race and mainly to the huge favouring punchers and classic riders over the climbers opposed to my oppinion, that it's somewhere close to 50:50.

It was mostly because of a response to your post, which didn't really belong to this thread (the response that is), but the one I linked to.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Link to viddy for those who can't use UCI's youtube channel.

http://www.sportlemon.tv/20130921/vv523df2d4d3aa79.63642951-646822.html

 

[King Boonen]

If Froome wins will the site go down for a month again?

 

[del1962]

If Froome wins will the site go down for a month again?

I don't think he has a chance, but I realy want him to, just to see the reaction

 

[Pippo_San]

I don't get why they're putting all their eggs on Froomey Dog while there's clearly a Knight with an excellent form.

Oh well. Not like they're going to win it anyway

 

[EnacheV]

I don't get why they're putting all their eggs on Froomey Dog while there's clearly a Knight with an excellent form.

Oh well. Not like they're going to win it anyway

Cavendish will go on the break to make other team tired chasing

After that Brad will launch a long range TT style attack, making other teams even more tired

And finally Froomey will drop everyone on the final climb.

And the dream was over and Brailsford waked up

 

[Grupetto1]

Cavendish will go on the break to make other team tired chasing

After that Brad will launch a long range TT style attack, making other teams even more tired

And finally Froomey will drop everyone on the final climb.

Before JTL finishes them all in the final sprint!

 

[sublimit]

The Brits dont have a chance in hell for this, Stannard is going pretty well but everybody else unlikely to go top 50.

 

[staubsauger]

The Brits dont have a chance in hell for this, Stannard is going pretty well but everybody else unlikely to go top 50.

Well unless the Colombians, Nibali or Froome have suddenly dramatically increased in shape within one week I guess Warren Bargui may have a realistic chance to snap a surprise victory! He looked strong in the Vuelta and Valverde, Rodriguez and Gilbert didn't seem to be on peak either during the Vuelta.

Although Moreno looked very very strong in the first week! So did Cancellara

 

[The Hitch]

wow, on bwin, there is 51 odds for Chris Horner wining the road race. I couldn't resist to put some money on him. Btw, 6 on Sagan is not that bad odds for his fans either. However phil having same odds as sagan quite a surprise for me, and alse giving the advantage on the side of "classic" riders in opossite to climbers with so big difference is surprise to me to. I certainly didn't expect ods 3,75 for fabs and 17 for Nibali and 19 for purito.

wow Nibali has a 17 odd? Might put some money on Nibs then.

I know this isn't the bet thread so i wont make any comments about that but just wanted to say my piece on chances perception.

Imo the worlds has like 3 times as many potential winners as the average year round top race be it a major week long, a gt, or a 1 dayer.

So all the odds end up looking generous because all the riders end up with better odds than they would for any other race they are targetting.

So we percieve these odds to be generous because we are used to all these riders having far lower odds. And with all of them we have performances in our mind from the past that tell us that these riders have the potential to win this race.

But that is not the bookies making a mistake, its because there are just so many more potential winners for this than any other race.

 

[Pulpstar]

I know this isn't the bet thread so i wont make any comments about that but just wanted to say my piece on chances perception.

Imo the worlds has like 3 times as many potential winners as the average year round top race be it a major week long, a gt, or a 1 dayer.

So all the odds end up looking generous because all the riders end up with better odds than they would for any other race they are targetting.

So we percieve these odds to be generous because we are used to all these riders having far lower odds. And with all of them we have performances in our mind from the past that tell us that these riders have the potential to win this race.

But that is not the bookies making a mistake, its because there are just so many more potential winners for this than any other race.

I think it shows what a well designed course it is that anyone othr than pure sprinter types have good chances. A very very open race indeed.

 

[Escarabajo]

No Colombians in the poll. Nice.

 

[The Hitch]

Any early indications on what the weather might be like then. One website I checked said 0% rain, another said 95% + thunderstorms.

Hard to tell, considering every day during the last week of the Tour the forecast was rain and thunder and every day the sun shone bright.

 

[Netserk]

There seems to be heavy rain between Sunday and Monday. Perhaps it will affect the RR.

http://www.yr.no/sted/Italia/Toscana/Fiesole/langtidsvarsel.html

Sunday
kl 2–8 ........0,7 mm
kl 8–14 ......0,4 mm
kl 14–20 ....2,9 mm
kl 20–2 ......11,1 mm
Monday
kl 2–8 .......7,2 mm
kl 8–14 ......6,2 mm
kl 14–20 ....6,0 mm
kl 20–2 ......2,5 mm

EDIT: Updated the forecast. I think it'll be dry or only with little rain