2014 - 98th Ronde van Vlaanderen, 259km, Sunday 6th April (1.UWT)

[Cance > TheRest]

I'd bet on boonen given the distance and his experience.

Maybe experiencewise, Boonen would have an advantage, but Sagan can handle the distance, and has performed better than Boonen in super long races like MSR. Pretty sure Sagan would win if it comes down to a select sprint. I might even think that Cancellara could beat Boonen if that was the case

 

[podunavac]

If the race turns into a tactical battle, instead of a procession like last year, Devolder has a serious chance.
The man knows how to make selection and stay in front.
But he'll have to surpass performances from the past if he wants the third.
Although in the same jersey as in 2008., the strongest team will be against him this time around.

 

[therhodeo]

Maybe experiencewise, Boonen would have an advantage, but Sagan can handle the distance, and has performed better than Boonen in super long races like MSR. Pretty sure Sagan would win if it comes down to a select sprint. I might even think that Cancellara could beat Boonen if that was the case

Sagan - 10th, 2nd, 4th
Boonen - 8th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd

Thats just MSR a race thats normally not Boonens priority. Boonen has 12 monument podiums to Sagans 2. Besides that Boonen had the stronger sprint at G-W but was boxed in and had to come from way back. Cance outsprinting either of them has to be a joke.

 

[Sprite0309]

What gives you this impression?

impression on Stybar for the win? I think Cancellara is the biggest favourite, he had incredible run in E3 Harelbeke, really strong, and I´m convinced that he will be the man who will create the race on sunday. In E3, there was only man who managed to follow Fabian, when he was attacking on Kwaremont, and the man was Styby. Moreover, Styby was the only man, who followed Fabian in last year Paris-Roubaix until the spectacular crash with spectator (yep, Sepp Vanmarcke was there too, but he was escapee and didn´t have to react to the most severe attacks by Fabian). This year, Styby has even better form then last year. And because Styby has great quality to become a glue he will be with Fabian to the end he will beat Fabian in final sprint

impression on Sagan struggling on the bergs? Maybe Sagan struggling on the cobbles is more accurate. Yep, Peter is great cyclist and he is top rider in races like E3 or Ronde, there are results already, but I think he has a little weakness on cobbled surface against guys like Cancellara, Bonnen or Stybar. These athletes are perfect in technique on cobbles a I always have feeling that Sagan is little bit suffering during the cobbled sections. Cancellara managed to drop Peter in E3 Harelbeke last year (Oude Kwaremont), in Ronde last year (Paterberg). Moreover, there was a gap in E3 (Kwaremont) after attack from Thomas (and Thomas isn´t Cancellara ). There is no coincidence Sagan missed Paris-Roubaix in two last years. My guess is Sagan in top 5, maybe third place. We will see

 

[BigMac]

Ah, yes, the Ronde. There's no other race like it. Cobblestones on hills are the climax for most cycling fans, that's why we all love it so much. Simply magestic from start to finish.

I want Gaudin to take it. To be honest, anyone other than Cancellara, Boonen or Sagan winning would be amazing.

 

[ILovecycling]

Styby ftw,thats all I can say.

 

[VeloHuman]

impression on Stybar for the win? I think Cancellara is the biggest favourite, he had incredible run in E3 Harelbeke, really strong, and I´m convinced that he will be the man who will create the race on sunday. In E3, there was only man who managed to follow Fabian, when he was attacking on Kwaremont, and the man was Styby. Moreover, Styby was the only man, who followed Fabian in last year Paris-Roubaix until the spectacular crash with spectator (yep, Sepp Vanmarcke was there too, but he was escapee and didn´t have to react to the most severe attacks by Fabian). This year, Styby has even better form then last year. And because Styby has great quality to become a glue he will be with Fabian to the end he will beat Fabian in final sprint

impression on Sagan struggling on the bergs? Maybe Sagan struggling on the cobbles is more accurate. Yep, Peter is great cyclist and he is top rider in races like E3 or Ronde, there are results already, but I think he has a little weakness on cobbled surface against guys like Cancellara, Bonnen or Stybar. These athletes are perfect in technique on cobbles a I always have feeling that Sagan is little bit suffering during the cobbled sections. Cancellara managed to drop Peter in E3 Harelbeke last year (Oude Kwaremont), in Ronde last year (Paterberg). Moreover, there was a gap in E3 (Kwaremont) after attack from Thomas (and Thomas isn´t Cancellara ). There is no coincidence Sagan missed Paris-Roubaix in two last years. My guess is Sagan in top 5, maybe third place. We will see

Meant Sagan. I'm high on Stybar, too. We know he's on top form and he's basically just been taking it easy behind Boonen and Terpstra this past week.

Regarding Sagan... you're right that he hasn't gotten to the next level in the big cobbled races yet obviously. I think he's more focused on them this year, and probably adjusted his training appropriately. He was pretty active in both events this weekend. I don't think he's a favorite for P-R, but Flanders is within his reach.

 

[Pippo_San]

To be honest, anyone other than Cancellara, Boonen or Sagan winning would be amazing.

Actually...anyone outside of OPQS. They bore the hell out of me at the start of the season.

 

[SKSemtex]

I hope Sagan can "somehow" take this. It is much harder to imagine "how" this year, as it looks like his form is far from the last year one but
as Buffalo said on the other thread " his worse form can in paradox help him to get it"
I am not cheering for him only because I am Slovak. Sagan needs one and I do think the sooner he gets one the better it could be for cycling in general. I am sure that winning finaly that f..g first monument will give him wings and unleash him from this "you must" and all the tactics and strategies that might tighten him up right now. I am sure we could see even more "attacking" Sagan and that could be good for cycling I guess.
I know a lot people want him to loose every monument he enters, so he ends up as "second rate rider who never won one big one". It is normal, everybody has his own favourities, but I think he deserves ones. He did for cycling here in Slovakia more then you can immagine. People do not watch formula one, football anymore on Sunday here, they watch, discuss the cycling races. They travel abroad to see classics , plan their vacation in England and France for this summar and Spain for September. Last but not least they buy bicycle and go out even it is quite dengerous here as our bike path net is hardly 1% of Belgium one. That is quite new in this country and it is exciting.

 

[jaylew]

I'll go:

*****Cancellara, Sagan
****Boonen, Terpstra, Stybar
***GVA, Vanmarcke
**Devolder, Thomas, Degenkolb, Paolini
*Roelandts, Démare, Chavanel, Vandenbergh, Gallopin, Boom, Pozzato, EBH, Kristoff, and everyone else

 

[theyoungest]

It's interesting how highly everyone rates Stybar... did I miss any spectacular performances lately? Sure, he can do a top-10, but not much more.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

Chances of Thomas not crashing..?

 

[ILovecycling]

It's interesting how highly everyone rates Stybar... did I miss any spectacular performances lately? Sure, he can do a top-10, but not much more.

No,his races were rubish so far.BUT,as you could see in E3 he can hold Canc wheel easy,and thats pretty rare .He is not considered a dangerous conteder for RVV by other riders methinks,coz his 2014 results were bad.Thats a big advantage,another advatange is Omega.To be honest I dont believe Boonen, and Terpstra won't be on topform anymore I think,Vandenbergh doesnt give monkey's about races now as he is a father (and still his attacks and sprint are awful)

Just wait and you'll see

Chances of Thomas not crashing..?

Odds are higher than on winninng imo

 

[ILovecycling]

I hope Sagan can "somehow" take this. It is much harder to imagine "how" this year, as it looks like his form is far from the last year one but
as Buffalo said on the other thread " his worse form can in paradox help him to get it"
I am not cheering for him only because I am Slovak. Sagan needs one and I do think the sooner he gets one the better it could be for cycling in general. I am sure that winning finaly that f..g first monument will give him wings and unleash him from this "you must" and all the tactics and strategies that might tighten him up right now. I am sure we could see even more "attacking" Sagan and that could be good for cycling I guess.
I know a lot people want him to loose every monument he enters, so he ends up as "second rate rider who never won one big one". It is normal, everybody has his own favourities, but I think he deserves ones. He did for cycling here in Slovakia more then you can immagine. People do not watch formula one, football anymore on Sunday here, they watch, discuss the cycling races. They travel abroad to see classics , plan their vacation in England and France for this summar and Spain for September. Last but not least they buy bicycle and go out even it is quite dengerous here as our bike path net is hardly 1% of Belgium one. That is quite new in this country and it is exciting.

thats pretty impressive.do people follow other races than Tour?what kind of tv ratings cycling has there?(sport no.?)

 

[theyoungest]

No,his races were rubish so far.BUT,as you could see in E3 he can hold Canc wheel easy,and thats pretty rare .He is not considered a dangerous conteder for RVV by other riders methinks,coz his 2014 results were bad.Thats a big advantage,another advatange is Omega.To be honest I dont believe Boonen, and Terpstra won't be on topform anymore I think,Vandenbergh doesnt give monkey's about races now as he is a father (and still his attacks and sprint are awful)

Just wait and you'll see

Styby's top form was in late January/February. Yes, Terpstra is a bit overraced, which suggests that OPQS themselves don't really take him seriously as a contender, but I still think he's their best option.

 

[T-Nielsen]

Chances of Thomas not crashing..?

Thats more of an existential question.

Like why cant you lean against the wall of knowledge.

 

[ILovecycling]

Styby's top form was in late January/February. Yes, Terpstra is a bit overraced, which suggests that OPQS themselves don't really take him seriously as a contender, but I still think he's their best option.

I dont agree.Its almost impossible to have topform in January if you finished your season in October.He had a peak,but I think his topform should be in Roubaix.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Based on pure numbers, it's hard to argue that Terpstra is overraced compared to other main contenders:

Boonen: 31 race days, 4999 km
Sagan: 28 race days, 4297 km
Cancellara: 28 race days, 4188 km
Avermaet: 25 race days, 4210 km
Kristoff: 25 race days, 4200 km
Degenkolb: 23 race days, 3962 km
Terpstra: 23 race days, 3687 km
Chavanel: 22 race days, 3544 km
Thomas: 20 race days, 3321 km
Stybar: 19 race days, 3451
Vanmarcke: 16 race days, 2547 km

Sure, he'll be up there after Driedaagse De Panne, but overraced? I definitely wouldn't say so.

Compare that to last year's schedule for Terpstra: Before RVV he had 29 race days and approximately 4200 km racing in his legs.

 

[SKSemtex]

thats pretty impressive.do people follow other races than Tour?what kind of tv ratings cycling has there?(sport no.?)

All of them. Thanks God for Eurosport 2 and SportLemon streeming. .

Forum comments about cycling races exceed the comments on national footbal or even hockey league. Sometimes even about those ones without Sagan, like Catalunya.

He is probably the most popular and admired person in Slovakia right now. ( together with Cibulkova )

 

[ILovecycling]

Based on pure numbers, it's hard to argue that Terpstra is overraced compared to other main contenders:

Boonen: 31 race days, 4999 km
Sagan: 28 race days, 4297 km
Cancellara: 28 race days, 4188 km
Avermaet: 25 race days, 4210 km
Kristoff: 25 race days, 4200 km
Degenkolb: 23 race days, 3962 km
Terpstra: 23 race days, 3687 km
Chavanel: 22 race days, 3544 km
Thomas: 20 race days, 3321 km
Stybar: 19 race days, 3451
Vanmarcke: 16 race days, 2547 km

Sure, he'll be up there after Driedaagse De Panne, but overraced? I definitely wouldn't say so.

Compare that to last year's schedule for Terpstra: Before RVV he had 29 race days and approximately 4200 km racing in his legs.

I would say recently overraced.I just compared him to Styby,so in comparison with Styby he is overraced.

All of them. Thanks God for Eurosport 2 and SportLemon streeming. .

Forum comments about cycling races exceed the comments on national footbal or even hockey league. Sometimes even about those ones without Sagan, like Catalunya.

Wow,thats sounds like a slovakian cycling revolutionImpressive.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I would say recently overraced.

Again, I don't think so.

Compare the racing he's done this year 1 month prior to RVV to last year:

2013:

Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen
Tirreno-Adriatico
Milan-Sanremo
Dwars door Vlaanderen
E3 Prijs Vlaanderen - Harelbeke
Driedaagse De Panne-Koksijde

2014:

Paris-Nice
Dwars door Vlaanderen
E3 Prijs Vlaanderen - Harelbeke
Driedaagse De Panne-Koksijde

 

[theyoungest]

Again, I don't think so.

Compare the racing he's done this year 1 month prior to RVV to last year:

2013:

Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen
Tirreno-Adriatico
Milan-Sanremo
Dwars door Vlaanderen
E3 Prijs Vlaanderen - Harelbeke
Driedaagse De Panne-Koksijde

2014:

Paris-Nice
Dwars door Vlaanderen
E3 Prijs Vlaanderen - Harelbeke
Driedaagse De Panne-Koksijde

Maybe I should have said overused rather than overraced. Why the hell is he doing De Panne? His form is right where it should be.

 

[Volderke]

my take:
*****Cancellara
****Sagan, Boonen
***Terpstra, Stybar, GVA, Vanmarcke, Devolder
**Thomas, Paolini, Kristoff, Roelandts, Démare
* Chavanel, Vandenbergh, Gallopin, Pozzato, EBH, and everyone else

I would put Cancellara above the rest. He is still the only one who can arrive solo.

Sagan has to hang on, Boonen as well. Paterberg is not the best hill in the end for Boonen, so it will be hard to see if he cracks there.

Terpstra, Vandenbergh and even Stybar will have to work in the finale. They can win if the equipe outnumbers the final gruppo after the Paterberg.

Vanmarcke has to play it tactically.

Devolder should go from the Hotond with 26K to go.

GVA will burn all his matches by unnecessary countering some moves, even deep in the finale. He won't let the OPQS counter e.g. Cancellara, because he absolutely wants to show he was good after he finished 8th.

Paolini, Kristoff, Roelandts and Démare can survive (but not necessarily). Degenkolb is just a little too fat to survive the Paterberg (admit it).

Chavanel, Thomas, Gallopin, EBH and Pozzato are all good riders, but to be honest, they all lack something to beat Cancellara/Boonen/Sagan in this race.

I Would like my avatar to win Paris-Roubaix, preferably all-out from e.g. Mons-en-Pévèle.

 

[wayahead]

I hope Sagan can "somehow" take this. It is much harder to imagine "how" this year, as it looks like his form is far from the last year one but
as Buffalo said on the other thread " his worse form can in paradox help him to get it"
I am not cheering for him only because I am Slovak. Sagan needs one and I do think the sooner he gets one the better it could be for cycling in general. I am sure that winning finaly that f..g first monument will give him wings and unleash him from this "you must" and all the tactics and strategies that might tighten him up right now. I am sure we could see even more "attacking" Sagan and that could be good for cycling I guess.
I know a lot people want him to loose every monument he enters, so he ends up as "second rate rider who never won one big one". It is normal, everybody has his own favourities, but I think he deserves ones. He did for cycling here in Slovakia more then you can immagine. People do not watch formula one, football anymore on Sunday here, they watch, discuss the cycling races. They travel abroad to see classics , plan their vacation in England and France for this summar and Spain for September. Last but not least they buy bicycle and go out even it is quite dengerous here as our bike path net is hardly 1% of Belgium one. That is quite new in this country and it is exciting.

Veľmi dobre napísané/Well written. I think it would be good for Sagan, for cycling, for world - and although not so important for all of us Sagan fans as well He is under enormous pressure now, I hope he'll deliver.
For me, it's easier to imagine Sagan grabbing it then year before. Last year's E3 everybody was simply destroyed by Cance on Oude. Sagan's chances before RvV were over-hyped.

 

[barmaher]

No love for the AG2R boys? I think we will see a lot of brown shorts at the front of the race this Sunday and next Sunday.