2014 - 98th Ronde van Vlaanderen, 259km, Sunday 6th April (1.UWT)

[TourOfSardinia]

The story so far ... 16.00 CET

Current top ten ITT

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

What are the opinions on the changed track? It seems most people rather like it, but I’m not sure. Koppenberg, Taaienberg and Paterberg are too similar, and even though this has improved, I would still like to see more cobbles later on the race to mix up with the hills. It is perfectly possible to have the last cobbles section within 10km of the finish (but maybe not when everything stays focused around Kwaremont).

I do like the inclusion of the kanarieberg though

 

[Netserk]

What are the opinions on the changed track? It seems most people rather like it, but I’m not sure. Koppenberg, Taaienberg and Paterberg are too similar, and even though this has improved, I would still like to see more cobbles later on the race to mix up with the hills. It is perfectly possible to have the last cobbles section within 10km of the finish (but maybe not when everything stays focused around Kwaremont).

I do like the inclusion of the kanarieberg though

Better than last year, and should feel less like a criterium.

 

[fauniera]

What are the opinions on the changed track? It seems most people rather like it, but I’m not sure. Koppenberg, Taaienberg and Paterberg are too similar, and even though this has improved, I would still like to see more cobbles later on the race to mix up with the hills. It is perfectly possible to have the last cobbles section within 10km of the finish (but maybe not when everything stays focused around Kwaremont).

I do like the inclusion of the kanarieberg though

I'd prefer this.

It has cobbles in the last 10 km by the way: Stationsberg and Mariaborrestraat. It would also be possible to include parts of Donderij just before Stationsberg.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Update :16:15 CET

 

[TourOfSardinia]

 

[ILovecycling]

What are the opinions on the changed track? It seems most people rather like it, but I’m not sure. Koppenberg, Taaienberg and Paterberg are too similar, and even though this has improved, I would still like to see more cobbles later on the race to mix up with the hills. It is perfectly possible to have the last cobbles section within 10km of the finish (but maybe not when everything stays focused around Kwaremont).

I do like the inclusion of the kanarieberg though

im not sure if it will be better,they will play a huge waiting game again,this time in Taaienberg (I dont believe you can save yourself at Koppen).Even tho it cant be worse than last year

And like netserk said,it won't feel like criterium

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

I'd prefer this.

It has cobbles in the last 10 km by the way: Stationsberg and Mariaborrestraat. It would also be possible to include parts of Donderij just before Stationsberg.

How far is the koppenberg from the finish here?
I was thinking to end with the Mater cobbles, and then take the N8 to Oudenaarde.

 

[fauniera]

How far is the koppenberg from the finish here?
I was thinking to end with the Mater cobbles, and then take the N8 to Oudenaarde.

Koppenberg is 14 km from the finish.

Your idea is interesting. It could work like this: Kwaremont, Paterberg, Koppenberg, Mariaborrestraat, Steenbeekdries, Taaienberg, Varent, Jagerij, Molenberg, Kerkgate, Ruiterstraat, Holleweg, Oudenaarde. Or maybe skip Holleweg and descending Wolvenberg into Oudenaarde.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

But it might need one more selective climb before Molenberg, I'm afraid. The varent is very nice, but not that impressive.
What about, after Taaienberg, you take the Boigneberg, descent the Varent, Berg ten Stene, Haaghoek-Leberg, and Molenberg to end.

But even in you proposal, 5 seconds on top of the Molenberg might be enough to make it to the finish line. There's a lot of turning, and almost no recuperation possible.

 

[Volderke]

The Molenberg is definitely the worse cobble hill of the whole pack, especially when it rains. The whole left side is just mud and only good for MTB.

What I think of the new course?
As much exciting as the previous (=NOT). Everybody will still wait for Kwaremont. Only a very good Cancellara / Devolder / other guy-not-looking-back escape can make it from Hotond or Taaienberg.

After Koppenberg, they made it too hard again. Every move on Koppenberg and beyond can still be countered by chasing between Taaienberg (which is not that hard at all) and Hotond.

The final stretch between Kerkhove and Oudenaarde is still sooo boring. Like they had a meeting about doing Kwaremont and Paterberg until late in the night and forgot about the parcours between Pater and finish. They kind of made that last stretch with google maps I guess.

Let me make a parcours and it will be 10 times better.

 

[rghysens]

What are the opinions on the changed track? It seems most people rather like it, but I’m not sure. Koppenberg, Taaienberg and Paterberg are too similar, and even though this has improved, I would still like to see more cobbles later on the race to mix up with the hills. It is perfectly possible to have the last cobbles section within 10km of the finish (but maybe not when everything stays focused around Kwaremont).

I do like the inclusion of the kanarieberg though

It will still come down to the last climb of Oude Kwaremont to break the pack and the last climb of the Paterberg. The section from second Oude Kwaremont to Taaienberg is very difficult, but then they make the mistake to go back to the Oude Kwaremont. I think it should be better to keep that section from Oude Kwaremont to Taaienberg, but let it follow by an "easier" stretch of 25km with Eikenberg, Varentberg, cobbles of Mater, descent of Wolvenberg and climb of Volkegemberg with 6km to go. The longer I watch cycling (and design fantasy races), the more I am convinced that it's better to include a really hard stretch from 50-60 km to go until 15-25 km to go and than soften up a bit.

 

[Sciatic]

It will still come down to the last climb of Oude Kwaremont to break the pack and the last climb of the Paterberg. The section from second Oude Kwaremont to Taaienberg is very difficult, but then they make the mistake to go back to the Oude Kwaremont. I think it should be better to keep that section from Oude Kwaremont to Taaienberg, but let it follow by an "easier" stretch of 25km with Eikenberg, Varentberg, cobbles of Mater, descent of Wolvenberg and climb of Volkegemberg with 6km to go. The longer I watch cycling (and design fantasy races), the more I am convinced that it's better to include a really hard stretch from 50-60 km to go until 15-25 km to go and than soften up a bit.

Ah, all of your thoughtful and interesting route suggestions are leaving out that key racing element: multiple trips past the "VIP Tent." But it's understandable that you would make the mistake of thinking that the current course design is focused on superior racing

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Ccling as a sport has one big design flaw: it is expensive to organize, but free to attend (the opposite of football).
But still, I think it should be possible (from a business point of view), organize a VIP tent where the race passes only twice: once at 100 km from the finish, once at 20 km..
Simple straight tracks still work for 90% of the races right? So why not for one you can sell expensively to television and for which you don't need to pay starting money...

 

[greenedge]

***** Cancellara, Sagan
**** Boonen, Teprstra, Degenkolb, Vanmarcke
*** Stybar, Chavanel, Kristoff, Thomas, Langeveld, Pozzato, GVA, Roelandts, Devolder
** Ciolek, Leukemans, Haussler, Paolini, Breschel???, Keukeleire, Impey (Bit hopeful for both!), Boom, Farrar, Phinney, Hushovd, Offredo, Chainel, Bozic, Gallopin

If someone from this group does not win I'm a fool

 

[SKSemtex]

There is nothinh wrong with idea of "pay section" where you can see the race 2- 3 times live + you can see it with certain comfort from big screen with commentary. (like in Firenze last year ) There still will be a lot parts where people can attent and watch free. I like this idea and the organizers should step up in this field. People travel sometimes hundreds of kms to see the action and in the finale they see nothing as they do not have the strong cubits or the will to hold the fence 4 hours prior to arrival of racers.
Questionable is the income from such a section. Probably to organize such a section is much more expensive then the money they can collect.
.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

Flaaaaanders!!!! kicks off my fave 2 weeks of the year. i just spent 2 hours mapping out the last 50k of the parcours from 3 different sources. here's what i've learned: cancellara is a ****ing badass, and... belgium is a strange and beautiful place.

 

[NUFCrichard]

Vanmarcke definitely has a chance at outsprinting him though. Not saying he will, Cancellara has shown to be quite fast himself at times and he beat him last time they rode to the finish together. But it's certainly not a given that Cancellara will just outsprint Vanmarcke, imo.

Ok I guess what I meant is that I don't think Boonen or Sagan will be able to stay with him, or Degenkolb etc.

I think Cancellara is a faster sprinter than people give him credit for, it was a bunch sprint at Milan-San Remo and he was 2nd. I would expect him to beat Vanmarke, Terpstra and Stybar in a sprint.

 

[Volderke]

@SKSemtex:

The whole concept of a pay section is totally unacceptable, at least for this race. This is not the worlds, and after ruining the parcours, proposing a pay section is, for the organizers, equivalent to being the most hated people in Belgium.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Cancellara = the strongest
Sagan = the fastest
Boonen = leader of the best team.

If we compare the three teams, we see that Sagan has a traditional team with one clear leader, but his helpers are quite strong. Boonen has four team mates who can win themselves if the ideal circumstances arise: Terpstra, Stybar, Vandenbergh and Van Keirsbulck. Cancellara's team is something in between, with Devolder as a shadow leader. I don't think Cancellara's other team mates will be of much use to him in the final.

Are there riders from other than these three team who stand a chance? Of course you can make a list with riders like Vanmarcke, Thomas, Van Avermaet, Degenkolb, Démare, Bozic, Gusev, Chavanel etc., but I would be surprised if one of them actually won the race.

Looking at the course I think it's better than last year. There are two tough zones: from Kwaremont 2 to Taaienberg, and from Kwaremont 3 to Paterberg. Between those two zones there's almost 20K (37-17 before finish) with only one climb, the Kruisberg. That part will be strategically important. If anyone from QStep attacks there, it might be very dangerous. People also talk about Devolder in that area, but I don't think QStep will give him that freedom. Maybe Devolder will just have to bring Cancellara to the foot of Kwaremont 3 in an ideal position, which means in front.

 

[barmaher]

Although I really do think Cancellara will win this again comfortably, it is a very deep field.

If he or Sagan are off their game, there are a number of potential winners.

We are all set for a battle royale. Hopefully there will be some showers, to liven it up even more. I like the course, apart from the section from Paterberg to the finish. It is not just the absence of any challenges. It is the fact that the roads seem straight and soulless.

 

[spanky wanderlust]

dark horse...not really that dark: terpstra.

 

[eliacodogno]

Cancellara = the strongest
Sagan = the fastest
Boonen = leader of the best team.

So the favourite is...Terpstra!

 

[Roude Leiw]

***** Cancellara, Sagan
**** Boonen, Teprstra, Degenkolb, Vanmarcke
*** Stybar, Chavanel, Kristoff, Thomas, Langeveld, Pozzato, GVA, Roelandts, Devolder
** Ciolek, Leukemans, Haussler, Paolini, Breschel???, Keukeleire, Impey (Bit hopeful for both!), Boom, Farrar, Phinney, Hushovd, Offredo, Chainel, Bozic, Gallopin

If someone from this group does not win I'm a fool

Now, if you list half the starters , you should have included Demare, he won't win, but I am more convinced of him in the 2** section than most of the names which are actually there

 

[Roude Leiw]

So the favourite is...Terpstra!

The favourite(s) are the steppers, Boonen, Terpstra, Stybar can all win, Keilsbruck is in top form and dangerous to ignore in a break etc.

Terpstra less favourite, I think he will be a marked man for a lot of the favorites, the dark horse of the steppers is stybar eventually keilsbruck as the othes can not mark everybody...