2014 Giro d'Italia, Stage 20: Maniago-Monte Zoncolan (167 Km)

[christopherrowe]

I hesitate to make any predictions because I'm so bad at it. But fortune goes to the bold, so I'll try my hand at it.

I'm picking Fabio Duarte as the stage winner by a margin of around half a minute. Quintana will keep pink, of course, coming in in the top five on the day, and while Aru will distance Uran with a late-stage attack, Uran will be able to limit the time loss and maintain his position on the second step of the podium.

Likewise, Hesjdal will try something on the final climb to bring back time on Kelderman and Evans. Kelderman will go with him, Evans will be dropped, but the relative positions of the three men will remain unchanged.

Having predicted such a conservative outcome with few successful attacks, I hope to have guaranteed fireworks.

 

[Afrank]

Watching 2010's stage right now. The attacks come and go like a marathoner's: no change in pace, but suddenly everyone's face starts to strain, and gaps appear.

It will be carnage. Hope the director is good, because there will be individual riders all over the mountain.

What is the weather forecast?

Clear in the AM, Showers in the PM. Not too bad. No snow so the stage is safe from alterations, although that means no epic pictures of riders racing through the worst conditions.

http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Monte-Zoncolan/forecasts/1000

 

[Cookster15]

I'm picking Quintana to win.

His allergy issues in the first half of the Giro may have played to his advantage now by limiting his efforts in the early stages. He looked fresh after the MTT. Not so sure about Aru who looked like he went very deep today. Its all about recovery now. Can't wait.

 

[Cookster15]

the record of the zoncolan is not in danger at all. very hard stage and at the end of the giro. not possible.
here the record of the beautiful saunier duval machines:

http://www.climbing-records.com/2014/05/may-30th-2007-saunier-duvals-super.html

fastest ever:

1. 2007: 39:03 Gilberto Simoni 15.06 km/h
2. 2007: 39:03 Leonardo Piepoli 15.06 km/h
3. 2007: 39:10 Andy Schleck 15.01 km/h
4. 2007: 39:34 Danilo Di Luca 14.86 km/h
5. 2007: 39:40 Damiano Cunego 14.82 km/h
6. 2007: 40:22 Julio Alberto Perez Cuapio 14.57 km/h
7. 2010: 40:42 Ivan Basso 14.45 km/h
8. 2007: 40:43 Franco Pellizotti 14.44 km/h
9. 2011: 40:52 Igor Anton 14.39 km/h
10. 2007: 41:00 Marzio Bruseghin 14.34 km/h

Thanks for this. Those climbing speeds really ram home just how tough the Zoncolan is. To think under 15kph will probably win it is insane.

Anyone know what gearing they will use - 34 x 27?

 

[ILovecycling]

Nairo, Arredondo, Uran, Duarte, and Henao go top 5, Ryo breaks his leg celebrating, and the Colombia haters quit the forum until the Tour.

Duarte to send the Colombian fanboy mafia into raptures.

Lets make this dream come true.VAMO5 por cinco gladiadores pequenos!

Pantano (break)/Quintana ftw
Do you know how Chavez recovered?

 

[veji11]

It would be great to see long range attacks, but i think the riders are completely cooked and this will be ridden very conservatively. For the gesture, guys like Hesjedal and Evans should attack from the passo del Pura and go out with a bang. The risk is not even that high : because Vuillermoz is 11th at already 22 minutes, they would have to lose more than 13 minutes on guys like him, Geniez or else to get thrown from the top10... For those riders, without an attack they know they will get dropped on the zoncolan.

Regarding the top6, despite all our fantasies I can't see anyone moving before the hard section of the Zoncolan : they are gassed.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

I'd want to see Astana go to the front for the first time this giro and give us a real show.

 

[Red Rick]

This stage should not be the last GC stage of the race.

1. It finishes on the toughest climb of the race, riders are less likely to attack on earlier stages because they either can wait for the last day or they want to conserve energy.

2. Because the finish is so tough, chances are 100% it all comes down to the final climb. There's no chance for longe range attacks, which actually is the thing you'd want to be possible in the last GC stage

3. Being so late in the Giro, chances are that everything is already decided when the race hits it's toughest climb. This sucks, cause it could make one of the most iconic climbs in cycling redundant. Angliru 2013 and Bola del Mundo 2010 working that way were rather unique situation imo.

I think the best stage design for a final mountain stage would be where the toughest obstacle is far from the finish line and were the final obstacle is rather mellow. It makes long range attacks way more likely cause the risk of blowing up is way smaller, and because waiting doesn't get you anything

 

[cineteq]

I'm picking Quintana to win.

Can you be more creative?

 

[veji11]

You know what would have been a great route for this last stage ? just putting the Zoncolan before the two other climbs (well similar ones). That climb is so hard that weaknesses might have appeared already, potentially leading to riders launching attacks 50ks from the line.

 

[VeloHuman]

The way Quintana just decided to turn on the jets in the ITT today when it looked like Aru might challenge him shows just how strong he is compared to this field. I think it's going to come down to whether or not Quintana really wants to go for this or not. I think he may want to silence critics of his Stelvio descent, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Nairo vs. Aru for the stage victory. Kinda rooting for Fabio Duarte to finally get over the hump though... so many 2nd places.

 

[yespatterns]

okay, I lost my avatar bet so just to be clear Ruby United: I'm stupid. You're smart. I was wrong. You were right. You're the best. I'm the worst. You're very good-looking. I'm not attractive.

 

[He-manuelle Sella]

okay, I lost my avatar bet so just to be clear Ruby United: I'm stupid. You're smart. I was wrong. You were right. You're the best. I'm the worst. You're very good-looking. I'm not attractive.

Could be worse! You could have been given an Andy Schleck avatar!

 

[BigMac]

Meh...

Give missa Evansess pleas.

 

[yespatterns]

Could be worse! You could have been given an Andy Schleck avatar!

Thats Cadel and Andy, pretty much my nightmare made real.

 

[Koba80]

Biggest Little City = Bratislava?

 

[williamp78]

You know what would have been a great route for this last stage ? just putting the Zoncolan before the two other climbs (well similar ones). That climb is so hard that weaknesses might have appeared already, potentially leading to riders launching attacks 50ks from the line.

Actually that sounds quite interesting. Is there even a descent down the other side?

 

[search]

Actually that sounds quite interesting. Is there even a descent down the other side?

yeh, when Basso won a couple of years ago they did it from the other side

 

[BigMac]

Actually that sounds quite interesting. Is there even a descent down the other side?

Yep, it can be climbed from Ovaro from the west and Sutrio from the east.

 

[Netserk]

yeh, when Basso won a couple of years ago they did it from the other side

What? Only in 2003 it has been climbed from another side than this one.

As for fantasy route:
Ovaro - Zoncolan - Sutrio - Priola -Zoncolan (only 2/3) - Sutrio

 

[manafana]

a battle between Aru and Quintana once again I would say

 

[yespatterns]

Biggest Little City = Bratislava?

haha, nah, Reno, Nevada

 

[SafeBet]

Aru has a lot to lose. First time he targets a GT in his career and he's on the podium. And he's never ridden Zoncolan as far as I know. He'll follow wheels until the big wall and the pace himself. As everybody should do really. It's the only way to approach Zoncolan.

I'm picking the break to win unless Nairo wants the stage, but I don't think he's a cannibal type of rider. He'll let some fellow Colombian take the stage.

 

[tristecsinamigos]

so many bets against Urán on every stage, in here and in the Marca / As comments sections. But it meant more luck for Urán, it seems.

 

[The Hitch]

This stage should not be the last GC stage of the race.

1. It finishes on the toughest climb of the race, riders are less likely to attack on earlier stages because they either can wait for the last day or they want to conserve energy.

2. Because the finish is so tough, chances are 100% it all comes down to the final climb. There's no chance for longe range attacks, which actually is the thing you'd want to be possible in the last GC stage

3. Being so late in the Giro, chances are that everything is already decided when the race hits it's toughest climb. This sucks, cause it could make one of the most iconic climbs in cycling redundant. Angliru 2013 and Bola del Mundo 2010 working that way were rather unique situation imo.

I think the best stage design for a final mountain stage would be where the toughest obstacle is far from the finish line and were the final obstacle is rather mellow. It makes long range attacks way more likely cause the risk of blowing up is way smaller, and because waiting doesn't get you anything

aka finnestre sestrieres.

which was a waste of space in 2011 at the Giro di Contador with the winner so clear, but a stage of the century contender in 2005.

Mortirolo Aprica similar principle though it wasn't the last stage, they made it basically the last stage.