2014 Liege-Bastogne-Liege, 1.UWT (262 Km's)

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Who will win?

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markjohnconley said:
I might have dozed through some of the race but a few posters are ranting on re. Gerrans wheel-sucking. I assume the same posters would be upset if Kwiatkowski had won; didn't see him 'attack', and was wheel-sucking Gerrans!
Kwitatkowski doesn't have nearly the same history yet.
 
hrotha said:
Kwitatkowski doesn't have nearly the same history yet.

No wheelsucking involved in Kwia's SB win.

Kwia is an excellent TT'er which will likely help him doing more spectacular things in the future, but it does require a smaller chase group than what we had in LBL.

Pointless attacking a 40-50 man peloton, especially if said attacker's sprinting is good.
 
The only good thing about this race was the miniature attack from Pozzovivo and Arrendondo. Oh and Valverde and Gilbert not winning.

I think the biggest problem is that the favourites this year are not confident (Martin, Gilbert, Gerrans), not good enough uphill (Kwiatkovski) or flat out *** (Valverde) and as a result everyone waited. The reason that nothing happens is that noone else tries anything. I was cheering for Pozzo and Caruso, but where are the likes of Belkin, Quickstep (when you know Kwiatkovski is never gonna win), Lotto (lollo), Voeckler, etc. There are way way too many guys without balls. To be honest, this race needed some Purito as well, he seems to be the most adventurous of the current hilly specialists.
 
Arnout said:
The only good thing about this race was the miniature attack from Pozzovivo and Arrendondo. Oh and Valverde and Gilbert not winning.

I think the biggest problem is that the favourites this year are not confident (Martin, Gilbert, Gerrans), not good enough uphill (Kwiatkovski) or flat out *** (Valverde) and as a result everyone waited. The reason that nothing happens is that noone else tries anything. I was cheering for Pozzo and Caruso, but where are the likes of Belkin, Quickstep (when you know Kwiatkovski is never gonna win), Lotto (lollo), Voeckler, etc. There are way way too many guys without balls. To be honest, this race needed some Purito as well, he seems to be the most adventurous of the current hilly specialists.

I think one big problem is that most contemporary hilly classics contenders are confident they can win it in the last km.
How many of them would think they're surely defeated if it all comes down to 1km uphill sprint?

Valverde: no
Gilbert: no
Gerrans: no
Purito: no
Martin: no
Kwia: no
Sagan: no
Moreno: no
Vanendert: no
Mollema/Slagter: not sure.

That leaves us with what? Kreuziger, Nibali, Costa, Voeckler?

What baffles me is that there are still plenty of teams knowing they have no chance in a sprint and still race conservately. There's no excuse for that.
 
My take is that teams are stronger and they are riding a very fast pace, the main men are carefully marked so any attempt from far out has very little chance to succeed while wearing out the attacker in perspective of a bunch finale. If I'm not mistaken all the monuments this year have been decided in a sprint or in the very late stages of the race. Even Canc is prepared for these. I know it's boring.

This is another idea by Nibali:

“The teams don’t want to try these big and long moves because they are thinking of the WorldTour classification,” Nibali told VeloNews. “The riders all think about bringing in points because they are important for the teams and for their contracts.”
 
trevim said:
With all the respect but Denifl and Caruso aren't the guys I want to see attacking at the end of Liege.

both talented riders Caruso has shown to be pretty useful when purito is not in the team, Denifl looked best chance for IAM he was ambitious and went for it still top 20 all credit to him.
 
Apr 15, 2013
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Rollthedice said:
My take is that teams are stronger and they are riding a very fast pace, the main men are carefully marked so any attempt from far out has very little chance to succeed while wearing out the attacker in perspective of a bunch finale. If I'm not mistaken all the monuments this year have been decided in a sprint or in the very late stages of the race. Even Canc is prepared for these. I know it's boring.

This is another idea by Nibali:

This, even when the race isn't very fast overall because the pace is leisurly for the first 150 ks, any attack will lead to teammates turning up the tempo to control/bring back... and teammates nowadays are almost as good as leaders, it isn't the 80s or before when you always had a big big difference in quality between leaders and teammates. In cycling, a sport where draft helps cycling in a bunch, homogeneity is a very bad thing.

to make analogies with US sports. Parity works great for the NFL where 20 teams can hope to win the title every year, but in cycling having 180 riders who are very close in level, riding in teams of 8, is very bad. To overcome the bunch, cycling needs talent disparity. Since talent disparity isn't coming back, some changes have to be made.
 
Arredondo said:
I'm disliking Valverde because he can do way more. He is capable to drop Gerrans on Saint Nicolas, but he doesn't dare. That annoys me.

Gerrans however, was on his max the entire race. So the only way to win LBL is to wait for the sprint. He did it just perfect. So i can appreciate that more.

well put thats racing we can't always like how some will win
 
42x16ss said:
Not entirely true, go back and look at his career pre-2010. Gerrans was actually a very decent stage hunter and attacker. His early Ardennes showings were quite strong with a fair amount of attacking, such as his 06 Liege cameo and his first three GT stages all came from intelligent breakaway riding.

Gerrans' negative racing has really only come about as his profile as a team leader has risen and results are more expected, encouraging him to race negatively thanks to (very relatively) limited natural talents.

Edit: still a $hithouse race though, totally embarrassing
My post that you quoted did specify "since San Luca in 2009". I acknowledged he was a much more interesting racer as a stagehunter with Crédit Agricole and Cervélo.

Since then he's given it up to sit in the pack anonymously and come 7th in the tougher uphill sprints, or outsprint people when the racing hasn't been all that aggressive. It's worked for him, he was probably getting too dangerous to allow up the road anymore, but it has made him a much less interesting and much less likable road rider, to the point where now I find it hard to fathom a reason why anybody who came to the sport anew would ever want to root for him.
 
May 4, 2010
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Well that was the most forgetfull LBL ever


The best on the day won. And would have won if Valverde had stayed on his wheels.
A great win by a deserving cyclist.
Lotta sore losers posting here.
Not forgettable at all.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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I didn't watch the race (haven't watched much cycling this year due to being ill and other stuff) but when I saw the results in the morning, I knew straight away that it wasn't a great edition. The major issue I have with Gerrans is that his major results are all a product of him just wheelsucking and coming out of the wheel in the final few hundred metres. Whether it be his victory this year in TDU with Wilunga Hill, his win in MSR or his win in Liege, there is no panache involved. He has a palmares that someone like Evans should have in the classics. Partially due to bad luck and the style of modern racing, Evans does not have LBL to his name but he is a far better rider than Gerrans in these classics. Evans' major career victories have all been a result of being one of the best riders and also showing guts. I can't say the same for Gerrans.
 
I just watched the race and wanted to read through a few of the comments to see the hate on Gerrans :eek: what baffles me the most is that no one even mentioned the most horrible performance of the day: Astana.

First they have Fuglsang and Gasparotto in a chasing group behind Pozzo-Arredondo and Samu after Roche, but both are very hesitant to take pulls. Then the peloton comes back. Nibali attacks straight away and gets a gap with Kreuz and Caruso. For some reason, Fuglsang decides to up the tempo again and launches Valverde to the front group :eek: moments later Gilbert, Vanendert, Kwiatkowski etc. join the group. Then they have like a 10" advantage when a Lampre riders tries to bridge on his own and Fuglsang responds and drags the whole group back to that Lampre guy. Result: everything back together.

How can anyone be that stupid? That was just ten times worse than seeing Gerrans win.
 
Apr 22, 2012
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Flamin said:
I just watched the race and wanted to read through a few of the comments to see the hate on Gerrans :eek: what baffles me the most is that no one even mentioned the most horrible performance of the day: Astana.

First they have Fuglsang and Gasparotto in a chasing group behind Pozzo-Arredondo and Samu after Roche, but both are very hesitant to take pulls. Then the peloton comes back. Nibali attacks straight away and gets a gap with Kreuz and Caruso. For some reason, Fuglsang decides to up the tempo again and launches Valverde to the front group :eek: moments later Gilbert, Vanendert, Kwiatkowski etc. join the group. Then they have like a 10" advantage when a Lampre riders tries to bridge on his own and Fuglsang responds and drags the whole group back to that Lampre guy. Result: everything back together.

How can anyone be that stupid? That was just ten times worse than seeing Gerrans win.
Quite a few mentioned bad performance by Astana and there was no Roche.
 
Apr 22, 2012
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Flamin said:
Very few then, compared to how bad their performance was. And I was talking about Roche-aux-Faucons :)

Ok then. And Fuglsang didn't launch Valverde to the front group and Nibali didn't attack but just covered Kreuziger's attack. And I don't think Kwitkowski was in the front group (but not quite sure with this one).
 
Lol :p It wasn't as bad for me since I wasn't able to watch it live and I kind of knew what was going to happen when I watched it today. So I will show respect to you guys who were unfortunate enough to watch it live and stop talking about it :D