2014 Tour de France CQ game

[Armchair Cyclist]

St 11
Another day when successful riders were those largely ignored: 85% of the guaranteed points are taken by those raking in Nibali's yellow jersey bonus.
GALLOPIN Tony 80 0 teams
DEGENKOLB John 50 0 teams
TRENTIN Matteo 35 0 teams
BENNATI Daniele 25 0 teams
NIBALI Vincenzo 20 8 teams
GERRANS Simon 15 1 teams
ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin 10 1 teams
VAN AVERMAET Greg 5 0 teams
DUMOULIN Samuel 3 0 teams
SAGAN Peter 2 1 teams
REZA Kévin 1 1 teams

1 Handbrake 20
1 Vladimir 20
1 Comodoro 20
1 Kazistuta 20
1 BeagRigh 20
1 Dazed_and_Confused 20
1 Afrank 20
1 Evans_is_the_best 20
9 Oli 15
10 Mellow_Velo 10
11 GeraintTooFast 2
12 DBCoop 1
13 all others 0

Top of GP table:
Sagan and Kittel still keeping Geraint Too Fast in among the Nibali Octet
1 Vladimir 755
2 Kazistuta 680
3 GeraintTooFast 582
4 Handbrake 565
5 Afrank 540
5 Evans_is_the_best 540
7 Dazed_and_Confused 495
8 BeagRigh 478
9 Comodoro 433
10 Martyfulu 393

Projected points differences:
Other than daily points, today's are mainly the drops of Costa and Talansky, or moving above them.
MOLLEMA Bauke 20 2 teams
VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen 20 57 teams
NIBALI Vincenzo 18 8 teams
ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin 18 1 teams
GERRANS Simon 15 1 teams
SAGAN Peter 12 1 teams
...
TALANSKY Andrew -30 31 teams
COSTA Rui Alberto Faria -70 1 teams

So score changes are fairly minor:
1 Search 39
1 The_Sceptic 39
1 Tuart 39
4 GeraintTooFast 36
4 Armchair_Cyclist 36
6 PeterB 35
6 Shalgo 35
8 Karlboss 34
9 Afrank 32
9 Evans_is_the_best 32
11 LiamP 29
12 Hugo87 27
12 Flo 27
14 18Valve 25
14 L29205 25
14 Patrick767 25
17 Somar13 24
17 Rote_Laterne 24
17 Manafana 24
17 AG 24
21 BeagRigh 23
21 Diggercuz 23
21 Roubaix 23
21 Mkind07 23
25 AlPacino 20
25 Blues_in_the_Bottle 20
27 Tigerion 19
27 JustSomeGuy 19
27 BikeRacer33 19
27 Yellow_Knight 19
31 Comodoro 18
32 the_fool_on_the_hill 17
33 Oli 16
34 Gotland 15
35 Martyfulu 14
35 HilltopFinisher 14
35 Del1962 14
38 Kazistuta 13
39 Mellow_Velo 12
40 Dazed_and_Confused 11
41 Akuryo 10
42 Minessa 9
42 JosephD 9
44 Vladimir 7
44 Trudgin 7
46 Jancouver 5
47 Mix 4
48 Handbrake 2
48 LugHugger 2
50 Jaylew 1
51 Leadbelly -1
51 Pricey_Sky -1
53 Jorik112 -3
53 LightBing -3
53 asdfgh101 -3
56 Simple -4
56 Mutschi -4
58 Josedin -5
58 Crevaison -5
60 NairoQ -10
60 Fus87 -10
60 MC_Mountain -10
63 Oliveira -11
64 LosBrolin -16
64 LaVelocipide -16
66 ItalianGigolo -25
66 USPostal -25
66 BicycleBoy -25
69 DBCoop -29
70 Murali -30
71 BigMac -78
Collective_Wisdom -7


and the standings have no major changes, and none at all in the top 10:
1 Handbrake 1809
2 Vladimir 1772
3 Comodoro 1704
4 Kazistuta 1687
5 BeagRigh 1627
6 Dazed_and_Confused 1492
7 Afrank 1418
7 Evans_is_the_best 1418
9 Search 1321
10 HilltopFinisher 1190
11 NairoQ 1147
12 Crevaison 1093
13 LosBrolin 1092
14 Leadbelly 1091
15 GeraintTooFast 1082
16 Gotland 1068
17 MC_Mountain 1067
18 Diggercuz 986
19 USPostal 982
20 ItalianGigolo 969
21 Minessa 957
22 Akuryo 927
23 Karlboss 923
24 LugHugger 903
25 LiamP 894
26 Oliveira 871
27 Josedin 865
28 Tigerion 846
29 Roubaix 821
30 Del1962 820
31 Armchair_Cyclist 818
32 Somar13 791
33 Fus87 771
34 Martyfulu 763
35 Mix 746
36 Mellow_Velo 736
37 JustSomeGuy 732
38 Oli 731
39 asdfgh101 725
40 BikeRacer33 723
41 Hugo87 713
42 L29205 710
43 Manafana 692
44 BicycleBoy 680
45 18Valve 661
46 Jancouver 656
47 BigMac 633
48 DBCoop 586
49 Trudgin 575
50 PeterB 566
51 The_Sceptic 562
52 Rote_Laterne 549
53 AlPacino 544
54 Flo 490
55 Yellow_Knight 489
56 Mutschi 466
57 Tuart 456
58 Shalgo 448
59 Patrick767 441
60 the_fool_on_the_hill 440
61 Pricey_Sky 419
62 Jorik112 413
63 Jaylew 407
64 AG 404
65 LaVelocipide 378
66 Mkind07 372
67 LightBing 349
68 Blues_in_the_Bottle 315
69 Simple 253
70 JosephD 234
71 Murali 162
Collective_Wisdom 509

 

[murali]

with talansky also not doing well, i think i will occupy the last spot till the end of the tour now

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

It's impressive how decisive Nibali is turning out to be. Even with nearly half of my budget squandered on Contador, my team will still finish well inside the top 10.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Sorry guys: real life intervenes, hence a very late, very short update tonigt, and very possibly none tomorrow.

St 12
Selected riders' projected ups and downs:
SAGAN Peter 52 1 teams
DEMARE Arnaud 35 1 teams
PINOT Thibaut 30 15 teams
VAN GARDEREN Tejay 30 8 teams
PERAUD Jean-Christophe 30 2 teams
MOLLEMA Bauke 20 2 teams
VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen 20 57 teams
NIBALI Vincenzo 20 8 teams
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas 15 3 teams
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel 10 1 teams
COSTA Rui Alberto Faria 10 1 teams
...
KITTEL Marcel -10 21 teams
DE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David -20 3 teams
TALANSKY Andrew -27 31 teams

Best and worst teams of the day
1 Diggercuz 103
2 GeraintTooFast 69
2 Gotland 69
4 Search 67
5 BeagRigh 62
6 Hugo87 55
7 HilltopFinisher 50
8 Handbrake 49
9 NairoQ 43
10 Afrank 40
10 Evans_is_the_best 40
...
66 Oli -9
67 LaVelocipide -16
68 BicycleBoy -22
69 Murali -27
70 LosBrolin -31
70 DBCoop -31

And the rankings, with no top ten movement:
1 Handbrake 1858
2 Vladimir 1780
3 Comodoro 1724
4 Kazistuta 1695
5 BeagRigh 1689
6 Dazed_and_Confused 1510
7 Afrank 1458
7 Evans_is_the_best 1458
9 Search 1388
10 HilltopFinisher 1240
11 NairoQ 1190
12 GeraintTooFast 1151
13 Gotland 1137
14 Leadbelly 1116
15 MC_Mountain 1090
16 Diggercuz 1089
17 Crevaison 1088
18 LosBrolin 1061
19 ItalianGigolo 998
20 USPostal 996
21 Minessa 966
22 Akuryo 957
23 Karlboss 951
24 LugHugger 933
25 LiamP 920
26 Josedin 878
27 Tigerion 867
28 Oliveira 866
29 Roubaix 852
30 Armchair_Cyclist 845
31 Del1962 840
32 Somar13 808
33 Mix 780
34 Fus87 775
35 Martyfulu 773
36 Hugo87 768
36 Mellow_Velo 768
38 JustSomeGuy 747
39 BikeRacer33 733
40 L29205 726
41 Manafana 722
41 Oli 722
43 asdfgh101 720
44 Jancouver 684
45 BigMac 673
45 18Valve 673
47 BicycleBoy 658
48 Trudgin 607
49 The_Sceptic 601
50 PeterB 598
51 Rote_Laterne 585
52 DBCoop 555
53 AlPacino 549
54 Yellow_Knight 515
54 Flo 515
56 Shalgo 481
56 Tuart 481
58 Patrick767 472
59 Mutschi 469
60 the_fool_on_the_hill 465
61 AG 430
62 Pricey_Sky 418
63 Jorik112 411
64 Jaylew 402
65 Mkind07 394
66 LightBing 381
67 LaVelocipide 362
68 Blues_in_the_Bottle 335
69 Simple 250
70 JosephD 236
71 Murali 135
Collective_Wisdom 507

 

[Handbrake]

The top 8 teams are now the 8 Nibalists, and disater aside, he seems likely to simply clock up more and more 20 point bonuses, so let's compare those teams (in order of current standings, with DNFs in brackets)

Handbrake: TALANSKY Andrew, PINOT Thibaut, ROLLAND Pierre, VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen, HAUSSLER Heinrich, (SCHLECK Andy), VANSUMMEREN Johan, KADRI Blel

Vladimir: KITTEL Marcel, TALANSKY Andrew, VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen, VALLS FERRI Rafael, ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar, (SCHLECK Andy), BONNET William, KADRI Blel

Comodoro: BARDET Romain, TALANSKY Andrew, VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen, (DE CLERCQ Bart), ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar, PAOLINI Luca, (KING Edward), VISCONTI Giovanni

Kazistuta: KITTEL Marcel, TALANSKY Andrew, VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen, HAUSSLER Heinrich, ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar, (SCHLECK Andy), VOIGT Jens, JI Cheng

BeagRigh: PINOT Thibaut, ROLLAND Pierre, YATES Simon, HANSEN Adam, TEN DAM Laurens, (ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin), WESTRA Lieuwe, VANSUMMEREN Johan

Dazed_and_Confused: NIBALI Vincenzo, TALANSKY Andrew, SPILAK Simon, NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel, TAARAMÄE Rein, VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen, ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar, (SCHLECK Andy), KADRI Blel

Afrank : (CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto), VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen, (SCHLECK Andy), BIDEAU Jean-Marc, VOIGT Jens, KADRI Blel, (KING Edward), JI Cheng

Evans_is_the_best: (CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto), VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen, (SCHLECK Andy), VOIGT Jens, KADRI Blel, SCHILLINGER Andreas, PATE Danny, (KING Edward)

Interesting day today with Zubeldia moving from 18th to 14th on GC and Ten Dam 17th to 12th just for Beagrigh. Bardet has slid into third for Comodoro which hopefully Pinot can overtake. Can Rolland hang in there for myself (and Beagrigh)?

 

[Afrank]

Looking at that list of the Nibalist teams I'm even more ****ed off about Contador's DNF. Me and Evan_is_the_best sooo would have taken the win here.

 

[murali]

Looking at that list of the Nibalist teams I'm even more ****ed off about Contador's DNF. Me and Evan_is_the_best sooo would have taken the win here.

But for the DNF, your team would have topped the chart.
i think the best team combo wud have had Konig as well, esp after seing the way he is riding.

 

[vladimir]

Valls out

 

[Hugo87]

My team is composed with 4 riders at the moment.

PINOT Thibaut - 4th on GC
VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen - 8th on GC
KÖNIG Leopold - 10th on GC
FEILLU Brice - 21th on GC
...
CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto - DNF
NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel - DNF
SCHLECK Andy - DNF
HERNANDEZ BLAZQUEZ Jesus - DNF
King Edward - DNF

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Back home: what's been happening while I was away?

Friday stage 13 Projected scores only
NIBALI Vincenzo 162 8 teams
KÖNIG Leopold 123 7 teams
PINOT Thibaut 75 15 teams
BARDET Romain 65 5 teams
COSTA Rui Alberto Faria 60 1 teams
TEN DAM Laurens 45 16 teams
VAN GARDEREN Tejay 41 8 teams
PERAUD Jean-Christophe 32 2 teams
MOLLEMA Bauke 30 2 teams
ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar 28 23 teams
VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen 20 57 teams
ROLLAND Pierre 20 14 teams
...
KADRI Blel -10 20 teams
DE MARCHI Alessandro -12 4 teams
VISCONTI Giovanni -15 17 teams
SAGAN Peter -20 1 teams
ACEVEDO CALLE Janier Alexis -20 2 teams
VOECKLER Thomas -32 3 teams
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel -33 1 teams
NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel -35 18 teams
PORTE Richie -356 11 teams

Gains and losses:
1 BeagRigh 302
2 Gotland 295
3 Handbrake 267
4 Comodoro 260
5 Mix 228
6 Kazistuta 210
7 Vladimir 200
8 Akuryo 194
9 Hugo87 189
10 Afrank 172
10 Evans_is_the_best 172
12 Dazed_and_Confused 165
13 Mellow_Velo 160
14 Crevaison 150
15 Diggercuz 147
16 Rote_Laterne 140
17 NairoQ 136
17 Roubaix 136
19 BigMac 131
20 Leadbelly 125
21 Flo 121
22 ItalianGigolo 118
23 asdfgh101 99
24 LosBrolin 95
25 LaVelocipide 91
26 Manafana 88
27 Minessa 85
28 Shalgo 78
29 Trudgin 70
29 PeterB 70
31 Patrick767 68
32 L29205 65
33 The_Sceptic 63
34 Tigerion 58
34 Jorik112 58
36 Jancouver 50
37 Josedin 49
38 the_fool_on_the_hill 44
39 Oli 43
40 JustSomeGuy 38
41 Pricey_Sky 30
42 AlPacino 28
43 Somar13 23
44 Blues_in_the_Bottle 20
45 Yellow_Knight 18
46 Martyfulu 17
46 Tuart 17
48 Simple 13
49 Mkind07 11
50 BikeRacer33 8
50 Fus87 8
52 18Valve 5
52 AG 5
54 LightBing 4
55 GeraintTooFast 3
56 Murali 0
57 DBCoop -26
58 JosephD -31
59 Jaylew -40
60 Mutschi -46
61 MC_Mountain -261
62 HilltopFinisher -271
63 USPostal -281
64 LiamP -285
65 Search -288
66 LugHugger -313
67 Armchair_Cyclist -325
68 BicycleBoy -329
69 Karlboss -341
70 Del1962 -346
71 Oliveira -361
Collective_Wisdom 3

Standings as of Friday night:
1 Handbrake 2125
2 BeagRigh 1991
3 Comodoro 1984
4 Vladimir 1980
5 Kazistuta 1905
6 Dazed_and_Confused 1675
7 Afrank 1630
7 Evans_is_the_best 1630
9 Gotland 1432
10 NairoQ 1326
11 Leadbelly 1241
12 Crevaison 1238
13 Diggercuz 1236
14 LosBrolin 1156
15 GeraintTooFast 1154
16 Akuryo 1151
17 ItalianGigolo 1116
18 Search 1100
19 Minessa 1051
20 Mix 1008
21 Roubaix 988
22 HilltopFinisher 969
23 Hugo87 957
24 Mellow_Velo 928
25 Josedin 927
26 Tigerion 925
27 Somar13 831
28 MC_Mountain 829
29 asdfgh101 819
30 Manafana 810
31 BigMac 804
32 L29205 791
33 Martyfulu 790
34 JustSomeGuy 785
35 Fus87 783
36 Oli 765
37 BikeRacer33 741
38 Jancouver 734
39 Rote_Laterne 725
40 USPostal 715
41 18Valve 678
42 Trudgin 677
43 PeterB 668
44 The_Sceptic 664
45 Flo 636
46 LiamP 635
47 LugHugger 620
48 Karlboss 610
49 AlPacino 577
50 Shalgo 559
51 Patrick767 540
52 Yellow_Knight 533
53 DBCoop 529
54 Armchair_Cyclist 520
55 the_fool_on_the_hill 509
56 Oliveira 505
57 Tuart 498
58 Del1962 494
59 Jorik112 469
60 LaVelocipide 453
61 Pricey_Sky 448
62 AG 435
63 Mutschi 423
64 Mkind07 405
65 LightBing 385
66 Jaylew 362
67 Blues_in_the_Bottle 355
68 BicycleBoy 329
69 Simple 263
70 JosephD 205
71 Murali 135
Collective_Wisdom 510

BeagRigh moves up 3 places to 2nd, while long time leader Vladimir drops off the podium. Gotland becomes the top non-Nibalist.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Saturday Stage 14
Projections:

TEN DAM Laurens 53 16 teams
KÖNIG Leopold 40 7 teams
ROLLAND Pierre 40 14 teams
PERAUD Jean-Christophe 37 2 teams
NIBALI Vincenzo 30 8 teams
TROFIMOV Yury 22 6 teams
ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar 20 23 teams
PINOT Thibaut 15 15 teams
BARDET Romain 15 5 teams
...
VOECKLER Thomas -9 3 teams
VALLS FERRI Rafael -20 4 teams
HORNER Chris -35 2 teams
COSTA Rui Alberto Faria -60 1 teams
VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen -60 57 teams

1 BeagRigh 138
2 ItalianGigolo 99
3 Gotland 86
4 LaVelocipide 72
5 Akuryo 66
6 The_Sceptic 55
7 Leadbelly 48
7 Crevaison 48
7 Mix 48
10 PeterB 34
11 Jancouver 28
12 BicycleBoy 26
13 Handbrake 25
14 Trudgin 19
15 Roubaix 18
16 LugHugger 17
17 Diggercuz 16
17 Rote_Laterne 16
19 Shalgo 15
20 Flo 12
20 Simple 12
22 Comodoro 7
23 Hugo87 5
23 JosephD 5
25 Karlboss 1
26 Tigerion 0
26 USPostal 0
26 Patrick767 0
26 Murali 0
30 LiamP -3
31 LosBrolin -5
32 Minessa -7
32 L29205 -7
32 Pricey_Sky -7
35 Mellow_Velo -8
36 Kazistuta -10
36 Dazed_and_Confused -10
38 BikeRacer33 -13
38 Yellow_Knight -13
40 Search -17
41 asdfgh101 -18
42 AG -20
43 Armchair_Cyclist -23
44 Manafana -25
45 Fus87 -29
46 Vladimir -30
46 Afrank -30
46 Evans_is_the_best -30
46 the_fool_on_the_hill -30
50 Oli -31
51 Tuart -33
52 BigMac -35
53 NairoQ -36
54 Somar13 -38
54 Martyfulu -38
54 Jorik112 -38
57 GeraintTooFast -39
57 HilltopFinisher -39
57 MC_Mountain -39
60 JustSomeGuy -40
61 Josedin -44
61 DBCoop -44
63 AlPacino -48
63 Mkind07 -48
65 Oliveira -52
66 LightBing -53
67 Del1962 -54
68 Jaylew -56
69 Blues_in_the_Bottle -60
70 Mutschi -63
71 18Valve -78
Collective_Wisdom -40

And while the leader's grip is loosened somewhat, there is no change any higher than 14th place:
1 Handbrake 2150
2 BeagRigh 2129
3 Comodoro 1991
4 Vladimir 1950
5 Kazistuta 1895
6 Dazed_and_Confused 1665
7 Afrank 1600
7 Evans_is_the_best 1600
9 Gotland 1518
10 NairoQ 1290
11 Leadbelly 1289
12 Crevaison 1286
13 Diggercuz 1252
14 Akuryo 1217
15 ItalianGigolo 1215
16 LosBrolin 1151
17 GeraintTooFast 1115
18 Search 1083
19 Mix 1056
20 Minessa 1044
21 Roubaix 1006
22 Hugo87 962
23 HilltopFinisher 930
24 Tigerion 925
25 Mellow_Velo 920
26 Josedin 883
27 asdfgh101 801
28 Somar13 793
29 MC_Mountain 790
30 Manafana 785
31 L29205 784
32 BigMac 769
33 Jancouver 762
34 Fus87 754
35 Martyfulu 752
36 JustSomeGuy 745
37 Rote_Laterne 741
38 Oli 734
39 BikeRacer33 728
40 The_Sceptic 719
41 USPostal 715
42 PeterB 702
43 Trudgin 696
44 Flo 648
45 LugHugger 637
46 LiamP 632
47 Karlboss 611
48 18Valve 600
49 Shalgo 574
50 Patrick767 540
51 AlPacino 529
52 LaVelocipide 525
53 Yellow_Knight 520
54 Armchair_Cyclist 497
55 DBCoop 485
56 the_fool_on_the_hill 479
57 Tuart 465
58 Oliveira 453
59 Pricey_Sky 441
60 Del1962 440
61 Jorik112 431
62 AG 415
63 Mutschi 360
64 Mkind07 357
65 BicycleBoy 355
66 LightBing 332
67 Jaylew 306
68 Blues_in_the_Bottle 295
69 Simple 275
70 JosephD 210
71 Murali 135
Collective_Wisdom 470

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

For those who don't believe in counting unhatched domesticated poultry. the guaranteed points standings are:
1 Vladimir 945
2 Kazistuta 870
3 Handbrake 795
4 Afrank 730
4 Evans_is_the_best 730
6 BeagRigh 714
7 Dazed_and_Confused 685
8 Comodoro 643
9 GeraintTooFast 632
10 NairoQ 410
11 Akuryo 405
12 Martyfulu 393
13 Tigerion 390
13 Somar13 390
15 LosBrolin 386
16 Leadbelly 379
17 ItalianGigolo 378
18 Minessa 369
19 JustSomeGuy 350
20 BikeRacer33 343
21 18Valve 327
22 Crevaison 321
23 Fus87 320
24 L29205 319
25 Josedin 318
26 Oli 300
27 Search 275
28 DBCoop 266
29 HilltopFinisher 265
30 Hugo87 197
31 Diggercuz 192
32 Gotland 191
33 BigMac 187
34 Mellow_Velo 186
35 Mix 168
36 Trudgin 160
36 Del1962 160
38 Rote_Laterne 155
39 MC_Mountain 145
40 AlPacino 135
41 Yellow_Knight 130
42 Oliveira 125
43 LugHugger 120
44 Roubaix 119
45 Manafana 105
46 Karlboss 103
47 Flo 94
48 the_fool_on_the_hill 92
49 LiamP 91
50 LightBing 80
51 Jancouver 77
52 USPostal 70
53 Simple 67
54 The_Sceptic 61
54 PeterB 61
54 LaVelocipide 61
54 Pricey_Sky 61
54 Mutschi 61
59 Jorik112 58
60 Shalgo 56
61 Tuart 55
61 AG 55
61 Jaylew 55
61 Blues_in_the_Bottle 55
61 Murali 55
66 Mkind07 52
67 Patrick767 50
68 BicycleBoy 45
69 asdfgh101 43
70 Armchair_Cyclist 40
71 JosephD 15
Collective_Wisdom 140

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

At the end of stage 11, BeagRigh was 5th (or, in other words, in the bottom half of the Nibalists' tables) 182 points adrift of the leader, Handbrake.

Now he is second, with just a 21 point deficit, and there is a gap of 138 back to third. Do we have a two man race, even in the absence of Contador and Froome?


To compare Handbrake and BeagRigh, their riders held in common are NIBALI Vincenzo, PINOT Thibaut, ROLLAND Pierre and VANSUMMEREN Johan, so they are incidental to the outcome.

Both teams have riders who have withdrawn and can make no further contribution: Talansky and Schleck for Handbrake, Atapuma for BeagRigh.

So what is the scoring potential for the riders that might decide the title?
For Handbrake
VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen Losing 8 seconds to Zubeldia will cost him 10 points, gaining 14 on Rolland would be worth 20. Currently 11th on GC, but has been a hanger-on in climbs rather than threatening high stage placings
HAUSSLER Heinrich Has been scarcely visible in sprints, so maybe just riding around to deliver 20 finishing points.
KADRI Blel Out of the points in the mountain rankings he once led. Has his stage win, so probably now working to preserve the team lead. Not many more points to expect from him.

For BeagRigh
YATES Simon Has looked very keen, and made a good impression without troubling the scorers much. Will his young, and heavily worked, legs see him through the Pirennean stages?
HANSEN Adam Not had his customary breakaway heroics yet: has he plans to gain some stage points at some point?
TEN DAM Laurens Probably the most likely to decide the competition, his rise in the Alps is what has driven BeagRigh's rise into contention, and any change from his current 9th is worth at least 20 points. Has he reached his highest attainable position in the Tour? Can he hang on to what he has?
WESTRA Lieuwe Of these seven riders, probably the one most likely to serve his team leader to breaking point, but even Handbrake couldn't wish on him a second successive Champs Elysses DNF.

So the efforts of Ten Dam and Van Den Broeck to retain, or improve on, their current GC placings seem to be likely to be decisive.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I spoke too soon about Haussler: those points for 2nd could be decisive.

Guaranteed points, stage 15:
KRISTOFF Alexander 80 0 teams
HAUSSLER Heinrich 50 17 teams
SAGAN Peter 35 1 teams
GREIPEL André 25 1 teams
NIBALI Vincenzo 20 8 teams
RENSHAW Mark 15 1 teams
COQUARD Bryan 10 2 teams
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas 5 3 teams
FEILLU Romain 3 5 teams
ALBASINI Michael 2 0 teams
BAUER Jack 1 0 teams

1 Kazistuta 70
1 Handbrake 70
3 AlPacino 60
4 Fus87 55
5 18Valve 53
5 Karlboss 53
7 NairoQ 50
7 Josedin 50
7 Oli 50
7 MC_Mountain 50
7 LiamP 50
7 LightBing 50
7 The_Sceptic 50
7 Tuart 50
7 AG 50
7 Blues_in_the_Bottle 50
7 JosephD 50
18 GeraintTooFast 35
19 Search 30
20 Vladimir 20
20 Afrank 20
20 Evans_is_the_best 20
20 BeagRigh 20
20 Dazed_and_Confused 20
20 Comodoro 20
26 Rote_Laterne 15
27 Roubaix 10
28 Diggercuz 5
29 Minessa 3
29 Crevaison 3
29 Mix 3
32 All other teams 0
Collective Wisdom 50

Guaranteed standings:
1 Vladimir 965
2 Kazistuta 940
3 Handbrake 865
4 Afrank 750
4 Evans_is_the_best 750
6 BeagRigh 734
7 Dazed_and_Confused 705
8 GeraintTooFast 667
9 Comodoro 663
10 NairoQ 460
11 Akuryo 405
12 Martyfulu 393
13 Tigerion 390
13 Somar13 390
15 LosBrolin 386
16 18Valve 380
17 Leadbelly 379
18 ItalianGigolo 378
19 Fus87 375
20 Minessa 372
21 Josedin 368
22 Oli 350
22 JustSomeGuy 350
24 BikeRacer33 343
25 Crevaison 324
26 L29205 319
27 Search 305
28 DBCoop 266
29 HilltopFinisher 265
30 Diggercuz 197
30 Hugo87 197
32 AlPacino 195
32 MC_Mountain 195
34 Gotland 191
35 BigMac 187
36 Mellow_Velo 186
37 Mix 171
38 Rote_Laterne 170
39 Trudgin 160
39 Del1962 160
41 Karlboss 156
42 LiamP 141
43 LightBing 130
43 Yellow_Knight 130
45 Roubaix 129
46 Oliveira 125
47 LugHugger 120
48 The_Sceptic 111
49 Tuart 105
49 AG 105
49 Blues_in_the_Bottle 105
49 Manafana 105
53 Flo 94
54 the_fool_on_the_hill 92
55 Jancouver 77
56 USPostal 70
57 Simple 67
58 JosephD 65
59 PeterB 61
59 LaVelocipide 61
59 Pricey_Sky 61
59 Mutschi 61
63 Jorik112 58
64 Shalgo 56
65 Jaylew 55
65 Murali 55
67 Mkind07 52
68 Patrick767 50
69 BicycleBoy 45
70 asdfgh101 43
71 Armchair_Cyclist 40
Collective_Wisdom 190
JosephD more than trebles his previous score to allow me to resume my habitual position.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Other than the above, any other changes are single point gains or losses for minor positional changes.

Projected scores: lead extended, no top 10 changes, riders with Haussler may have moved up a bit, Collective Wisdom team slightly less of a condemnation of our joint effort than it was.

1 Handbrake 2210
2 BeagRigh 2139
3 Comodoro 2001
4 Vladimir 1960
5 Kazistuta 1955
6 Dazed_and_Confused 1675
7 Afrank 1610
7 Evans_is_the_best 1610
9 Gotland 1516
10 NairoQ 1340
11 Leadbelly 1289
11 Crevaison 1289
13 Diggercuz 1257
14 ItalianGigolo 1215
15 Akuryo 1213
16 LosBrolin 1151
17 GeraintTooFast 1150
18 Search 1118
19 Mix 1059
20 Minessa 1047
21 Roubaix 1016
22 Hugo87 962
23 Josedin 933
24 HilltopFinisher 930
25 Tigerion 925
26 Mellow_Velo 919
27 MC_Mountain 840
28 Fus87 805
29 asdfgh101 795
30 Somar13 793
31 L29205 784
32 Oli 782
33 Manafana 779
34 BigMac 769
34 The_Sceptic 769
36 Rote_Laterne 761
37 Jancouver 754
38 Martyfulu 746
39 JustSomeGuy 745
40 BikeRacer33 728
41 USPostal 715
42 PeterB 707
43 Trudgin 696
44 LiamP 682
45 Karlboss 664
46 18Valve 653
47 LugHugger 642
47 Flo 642
49 AlPacino 594
50 Shalgo 574
51 Patrick767 540
52 LaVelocipide 525
53 Yellow_Knight 520
54 Tuart 513
55 Armchair_Cyclist 495
56 DBCoop 481
57 the_fool_on_the_hill 479
58 AG 465
59 Oliveira 453
60 Pricey_Sky 441
61 Del1962 440
62 Jorik112 431
63 LightBing 385
64 Mutschi 360
65 Mkind07 357
66 BicycleBoy 355
67 Blues_in_the_Bottle 345
68 Jaylew 306
69 Simple 275
70 JosephD 254
71 Murali 135
Collective_Wisdom 520

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

My team is composed with 4 riders at the moment.
...
CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto - DNF
NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel - DNF
SCHLECK Andy - DNF
HERNANDEZ BLAZQUEZ Jesus - DNF
King Edward - DNF

And yet you are still 22nd out of 71 teams.

How many riders do other teams have left?
All 9: No-one
8 riders: BeagRigh, Akuryo, Minessa, Josedin, Oli, Crevaison, L29205, Search, Trudgin (9 teams)
7 riders: Kazistuta, Handbrake, GeraintTooFast, NairoQ, Martyfulu, Tigerion, Somar13, Leadbelly, ItalianGigolo, Fus87, JustSomeGuy, BikeRacer33, DBCoop, HilltopFinisher, Diggercuz, Gotland, Mellow_Velo, Karlboss, LiamP, Roubaix, USPostal, Simple, LaVelocipide, asdfgh101 (24 teams)
6 riders: Vladimir, Afrank, Evans_is_the_best, Dazed_and_Confused, Comodoro, LosBrolin, 18Valve, MC_Mountain, AlPacino, Rote_Laterne, Yellow_Knight, LightBing, Oliveira, LugHugger, The_Sceptic, Manafana, Tuart, Blues_in_the_Bottle, Flo, Jancouver, PeterB, Shalgo, Mkind07, Patrick767, BicycleBoy, Armchair_Cyclist (26 teams)
5 riders: BigMac, Mix, AG, the_fool_on_the_hill, JosephD, Pricey_Sky, Jorik112 (7 riders) + Collective Wisdom
4 riders: Hugo87, Del1962, Mutschi, Jaylew, Murali (5 teams)

 

[NairoQ]

I wonder what would happen if Nibali dropped out, i think i'd come close. But I did not at all forsee a scenario like this (nobody did i guess), so congratz to all the nibalist Who picked him: he'd be a good pick even if Froome and Contador were present.

 

[del1962]

nfortunately for BeagRigh, Simon Yates has been withdrawn by his team

 

[mutschi]

I have a strong run for last. Aiming for Lantern Rouge now.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I wonder what would happen if Nibali dropped out, i think i'd come close.

I can do that:
1 Gotland 1700
2 Handbrake 1680
3 BeagRigh 1609
4 Comodoro 1462
5 NairoQ 1460
6 Crevaison 1419
6 Leadbelly 1419
8 Diggercuz 1403
9 Vladimir 1350
10 Kazistuta 1345

If Nibali were to drop out, these would be the top projected standings. Nibali has so many stage points and yellow jersey bonuses, and the main beneficiary, Valverde, has not been selected, so 3 of the top 4, and 5 of the top 10 remain those who chose Vincenzo.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

nfortunately for BeagRigh, Simon Yates has been withdrawn by his team

Yates is on 12 teams, but BeagRigh is the only one in the top 20. 'Only' 20 points lost, but combined with Haussler's 50 points today, it will require something major to halt Handbrake's progress to the title.

 

[NairoQ]

I can do that:
1 Gotland 1700
2 Handbrake 1680
3 BeagRigh 1609
4 Comodoro 1462
5 NairoQ 1460
6 Crevaison 1419
6 Leadbelly 1419
8 Diggercuz 1403
9 Vladimir 1350
10 Kazistuta 1345

If Nibali were to drop out, these would be the top projected standings. Nibali has so many stage points and yellow jersey bonuses, and the main beneficiary, Valverde, has not been selected, so 3 of the top 4, and 5 of the top 10 remain those who chose Vincenzo.

Interesting, thanks! I'll keep top-10 as my goal then.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

No racing to watch today (apologies to those following the Sibiu tour), so you could spend the time to check on your team's fortunes and investigate some 'what if?' scenarios on the spreadsheet.

 

[murali]

I have a strong run for last. Aiming for Lantern Rouge now.

in your dreams

you should try hard to do worse than my team:


CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto
CAVENDISH Mark
TALANSKY Andrew
MEIER Christian *
HAYMAN Mathew
VOIGT Jens
ISAYCHEV Vladimir
HERNANDEZ BLAZQUEZ Jesus
PATE Danny

unless meier or voigt does something marvelous, there is no way my points will improve. isaychev and pate are in invisible mode now.

Nieve in your team will only improve in the next set of mountain stages, esp since he doesnt hav to work for Porte anymore.

 

[Akuryo]

Voeckler, Pinot, König. I had a good day today. Hell, even Zubeldia moved up in the GC. Maybe I can somehow reach the Top 10 at the end.