2014 Tour de France, Stage 11: Besançon - Oyonnax (187.5 km)

[xanadu]

agreed. This is the perfect stage for offensives strategies combining early breakaway and leaders. why ? Because it comes after rest day, because there are already som big time gaps and some leaders are in the doodoo (Talansky...), and because this course is demanding but not too much : the last 60ks never stop going up and down, but the gradients are mainly around 5% : draft plays a major role and gregarii can be critical because they can pul for 5/10ks whereas on real climbs they are of hardly any help to a leader.

Probably won't happen, but the worst scenario for Astana is a breakaway with the usual attackers (Chavanel, Voeckler, Cancellara, the orphaned Saxo boys,etc...) + quite a few leader's teammates (some skys, some Garmins, some Movistar) + some in between GC riders who have already lost time and don't seem that dangerous, but that you can't just let go (Geraint Thomas, Ten Dam, Konig)... Put all this together in a group of 25 riders.. Have them have 4/5 minutes at the 55ks to the end mark.... AND... watch Porte or Valverde attack sometime near the 40 to 30 ks mark... AND have Sagan go with them... Nightmare scenario for Nibali.

Won't happen of course, but this is the type of stage that can tire out the leader's team because it has to be kept under controle. Ideal for them is if a breakaway like on stage 8 goes.... pfiooo, sigh of relief, no GC relevant rider or teammate in there... but my bet is on a breakaway more akin to stage 9.

Saxo orphans, ahhhh are we starting a collection for them.

 

[tomorrow]

i think cannondale might be able to repeat long leadout like in 7th stage last year, the profile is not that bad, they will just need to keep the break close, and in the end, orica will happily finish their work for gerrans, as the stage doesn't look suitable only for sagan, but for Gerrans too

 

[veji11]

i think cannondale might be able to repeat long leadout like in 7th stage last year, the profile is not that bad, they will just need to keep the break close, and in the end, orica will happily finish their work for gerrans, as the stage doesn't look suitable only for sagan, but for Gerrans too

We will see but I thinkg it will too hard today, the last 60ks are really hard (not in terms of incline per se, although 5/6% on average roads is respectable, but because it never stops) and all you need is 3/4 strong guys in a breakaway (not even Tony Martin but something like Chavanel+Voigt+ a couple more) and it is very hard for the peloton to bring it back in. Compare that with the Saint Etienne Stage, where we are talking of 2/3% average incline over 10/15ks and the difference is notable.

I think Cannondale might give it a try tomorrow, but they will have to make up their mind fast and not lose to much energy for naught. My bet is on thursday in St-Etienne for Sagan's first win.

 

[Red Rick]

I expect at least 8 Saxo's in the breakaway. So that's the whole team + Hernandez, who spontaneously starts again after a good amount of rest days to take his first win and dedicate it to Contador

 

[veji11]

I expect at least 8 Saxo's in the breakaway. So that's the whole team + Hernandez, who spontaneously starts again after a good amount of rest days to take his first win and dedicate it to Contador

Well to be honest, attacking is the best thing to do for the Saxo team; a bit like how OPQS went on to try and forget Cavendish's crash : Attack and try to make things happen. Surprising to see, but OPQS have been this year's most aggressive team : Martin's attacks of course, but also Kwiatowski's attempted "coup du kilomètre" and then Trentin's win, and yesterday's offensive, etc... It is the best way to remobilise a team.

So i most certainly expect 2/3 Saxo riders in the breakaway tomorrow, that's for sure.

 

[zombo10]

We will see but I thinkg it will too hard today, the last 60ks are really hard (not in terms of incline per se, although 5/6% on average roads is respectable, but because it never stops) and all you need is 3/4 strong guys in a breakaway (not even Tony Martin but something like Chavanel+Voigt+ a couple more) and it is very hard for the peloton to bring it back in. Compare that with the Saint Etienne Stage, where we are talking of 2/3% average incline over 10/15ks and the difference is notable.

I think Cannondale might give it a try tomorrow, but they will have to make up their mind fast and not lose to much energy for naught. My bet is on thursday in St-Etienne for Sagan's first win.

Yes, same for me. I feel more thursday for Sagan's first win!

=>

Km 58.5 - Col de Brouilly 1.7 km de montée à 5.1% - catégorie 4
Km 83.0 - Côte du Saule-d'Oingt 3.8 km de montée à 4.5% - catégorie 3
Km 138.0 - Col des Brosses 15.3 km de montée à 3.3% - catégorie 3
Km 164.0 - Côte de Grammond 9.8 km de montée à 2.9% - catégorie 4

 

[veji11]

by the way, ASO has really pushed the enveloppe on some profiles... The Lille stage and the St Etienne stage have been made to look like a LBL and a mountain stage respectfully, whereas they are flat (for the first one) and not that hard for the second. People look at that St Etienne stage and think it is as hard as the Oyonnax stage, but the gradients in the last 60ks are just on average double on the Oyonnax stage ! Oyonnax you have an average of 5% ups and downs for 50ks, here it's more like 2,5%... Really they could have flattened it a bit.

 

[veji11]

by the way weather should at last get warmer on wednesday, more around 24°C, but there is a real possibility of thunderstorms in the afternoon around Oyonnax. So you could have a final descente under quasi hail.... Lucky riders hey ?

30°C on the road to St Etienne on thursday and 32/33 on the way to Chamrousse on friday (before the climbs that is). This could prove deadly for quite a few riders. Not Vuelta/Ventoux like temperatures, but still after spending close to a week under consistently less than 20°C and rain, warm sunny weather can really hurt riders. After having ridden 150ks in the hot sun, you see some riders well up the GC suddenly being all dry on the slopes of Palaquit and Chamrousse. A rider like Pinot for example is quite prone to suffering from changing weather... I firmly believe that the weather of the last week will be paid for by many riders before Paris.

 

[Akuryo]

Bakelants in a breakaway or Trentin in the sprint.

 

[Jagartrott]

by the way weather should at last get warmer on wednesday, more around 24°C, but there is a real possibility of thunderstorms in the afternoon around Oyonnax. So you could have a final descente under quasi hail.... Lucky riders hey ?

30°C on the road to St Etienne on thursday and 32/33 on the way to Chamrousse on friday (before the climbs that is). This could prove deadly for quite a few riders. Not Vuelta/Ventoux like temperatures, but still after spending close to a week under consistently less than 20°C and rain, warm sunny weather can really hurt riders. After having ridden 150ks in the hot sun, you see some riders well up the GC suddenly being all dry on the slopes of Palaquit and Chamrousse. A rider like Pinot for example is quite prone to suffering from changing weather... I firmly believe that the weather of the last week will be paid for by many riders before Paris.

Good call. Weather is and has been a significant factor here I believe. Nibali is known to be resistant to the cold, so no surprise really for him to have fared well so far.

 

[Broth3r]

Km 164.0 - Côte de Grammond 9.8 km de montée à 2.9% - catégorie 4

Well, that's a weird categorization. I'd either go for 3rd cat, or not class it at all.

 

[icefire]

I expect at least 8 Saxo's in the breakaway. So that's the whole team + Hernandez, who spontaneously starts again after a good amount of rest days to take his first win and dedicate it to Contador

I'd rather have Oleg in the bunch instead of Hernandez

 

[Fzotrlool]

Voeckler will be in the break for KOM points.

Sagan may wait until tomorrow which I think suits him even more.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

Cancellara withdraws.

 

[deValtos]

Cancellara withdraws.

Does he give a reason ?

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

To rest up for the Worlds.

More...

 

[VeloHuman]

The presence of Peter Sagan and at least one Orica-GreenEdge rider will play a huge role in whether this break goes this distance. If neither Sagan nor Gerrans/Albasini/etc. are in the breakaway, we should see a concerted chase from their teams.

 

[veji11]

Cancellara withdraws.

Pretty poor tour de France for him.. an attack in Harrogate and that's about it, but this withdrawal tells us why : Simply put he came because it is the tour, and for the sponsor, the big star of the team has to be there (no I am not talking about Andy Schlek).

it is actually reassuring in a way : he was a ghost for a reason, this was some sort of glorified training but he wasn't up to it in terms of form.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

Pretty poor tour de France for him.. an attack in Harrogate and that's about it, but this withdrawal tells us why : Simply put he came because it is the tour, and for the sponsor, the big star of the team has to be there (no I am not talking about Andy Schlek).

it is actually reassuring in a way : he was a ghost for a reason, this was some sort of glorified training but he wasn't up to it in terms of form.

I am sure part of that is due to sponsors. I would also add Stage 5 being on his objectives.

However, they have no outstanding GC candidate so the need for him to put in a shift through the whole the Tour is probably minimal.

 

[veji11]

I am sure part of that is due to sponsors. I would also add Stage 5 being on his objectives.

However, they have no outstanding GC candidate so the need for him to put in a shift through the whole the Tour is probably minimal.

Of course, but an on form Cancellar could have won one of the next two stages.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Of course, but an on form Cancellar could have won one of the next two stages.

Agreed, but I think this means we will be getting an extra dose of Jens tomorrow. I see a big break of about 12-15 riders (Rogers, Voight, Bakelants) get clear and the peloton letting it go.

 

[damian13ster]

Yeah, Rogers and Bakelants would be my picks for this stage. Seems to suit them perfectly and both teams are all about stage hunting at this point. (although nobody believed me when I said yesterday that Rogers and Majka might still win a stage between them in this TdF)

 

[Escarabajo]

Breakaway of 50 riders!!!

Seriously, so many teams with interests in this stage. So one for the breakaway.

 

[veji11]

Breakaway of 50 riders!!!

Seriously, so many teams with interests in this stage. So one for the breakaway.

Yeah I think we see again a big breakaway of 20+ riders with a nice battle between them in the last 50 ks and a small group of 3/4 arriving for the win. Could be a very nice stage, a bit like the Annonnay stage in 2012 won by Millar. Good breakaway stages where there is battle in several phases (to take the breakaway, to weed out the weaker ones and finally for the stage win )are fun to watch.

 

[Alcanelo]

Cmon Sagan!!