2014 Tour de France, Stage 5: Ypres – Arenberg Porte du Hainaut: 156km

[behy77]

hi
Who do you think will win the fifth stage???

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Since Wiggins got a knighthood for winning the Tour, surely Froome deserves a purple heart or whatever the British give to injured heroes.

Trouble is all British honours go through a POSITIVE vetting committee.

 

[jaylew]

So we're going to get rain here but we can't ever get it at P-R? Just backwards. I'd really hate to see one of the big 4 effectively lose the race tomorrow due to a crash. I think strong teammates (and car position as has been discussed) are going to be especially important tomorrow if it's wet.

So, which cobblers will be on guide dog duty and who will be let off the leash? I know Cancellara and GvA have been given the green light and Sagan, Degenkolb, and Kristoff don't have to worry about it. What about Vanmarcke, Démare, and Terpstra?

 

[jonjungel]

hi
Who do you think will win the fifth stage???

Hi, and welcome to the forum. Your question is answered quite thoroughly in the previous 20 pages of this thread. Start at the beginning, the first post has pictures.

 

[karlboss]

Remembering Hesjedal in 2010, a similar tactic may work for a GC contender. Though unlike Hesjedal I don't think you really have to push on, just aim to hit the cobbles with 1 minute in hand hopefully avoiding the carnage of the early sectors and on a good day latch onto a flying Cancellara on his way through and then hopefully maintain a gap, but more realistically aiming not to crash or be held up by a crash.
The only thing is you'd need to be in the break of the day, a late push will be swallowed by a flying peloton imitating a sprint leadout to get onto the cobbles first. So who would the peloton let go? Maybe after a few digs from many riders, they'd be happy with an outside shot at top 10?
I'm hoping Rolland tries it again, "I love his balls". (team America)

 

[Cimber]

Vanmarcke, Spartacus or Degenkolb to win

 

[el_leleu]

I went to Gruson yesterday and while it's not a terribly difficult section the road was in pretty bad shape.
There were puddles on both sides, lots of grass in the middle, the beginning and end of the section were very muddy.
It will be very slippery and dangerous.

End of Gruson-Pavé de l'Arbre :

 

[Cimber]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Froome doesn't lose any time to any GC candidates tomorrow.

I got the same feeling. The GC riders might very well all play it safe on the wet cobbles.

Big difference will only come if we have mechanicals or crashes which is, sadly very likely, however. As Contador says: its gonna be a lottery

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Mons-en-Pévèle is 5 star though right?

None of the sections used are 5 stars.
Reduced in length etc.

Way too much carnage if the toughest paves were use here. Now its just right. A perfect challenge for the modern stage race peloton.

 

[Cimber]

Incorrect. Arenberg is NOT part of the course tomorrow. The race stops before entering the forest.

Yep, but still several difficult sections.

 

[Jagartrott]

This should be an extremely difficult stage for all riders in the TDF.There are lots of variables to this stage,hopefully Langevelde or hayman can get a lucky win.But realistically Cancellara,Boonen and Van marck are all favourites.What im looking forward to most is seeing which of the gc favourites loose time and which dont?my money is on Froome loosing bigtime"

You'll get pretty good odds for Boonen to win. Go for it!

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Paris Roubaix winner Van Summeren:

The thing is, it's not the cobblestones. It's happened so much before with the positioning and the stress in the peloton, so it's important to be in a good position when you hit the stones.

More here: http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/tour-de-france-the-cobbles-are-going-to-be-crazy-says-vansummeren

 

[ILovecycling]

I quite fancy Haussler as an outsider to do something tomorrow. He seems to be in decent form.

Good one,I will add him to contenders list

Not cool, Parrulo. Imo, mods shouldn't alter thread titles for something so trivial or personal, just if it's offensive, breaks a forum rule, or the author requests it.

Let it go mate,you know...its Ok

You expect Canc to do what? Breal away solo on the cobbles. I don't know. In Roubaix, yeah, in TDF stage 5, 140km only and no real hard sections, it is different.

On the other hand competition is a lot weaker,so I favour him pretty high,there is almost nobody who will reel him in (except bmc,belkin,maybe garmin and omega) like in P-R.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

I am afraid crashfest will cause more carnage than the route itself.

 

[ILovecycling]

The weather will be updated in half an hour from several sources.Stay tuned on First page.

 

[murali]

Cancellara tweets imply that this might be a mud fest.

let us all pray for the safety of all the riders.

waiting eagerly for the weather updates.
if anyone is on ground, cud they also send updates?

 

[jens_attacks]

thanks el_leleu

how is the weather right now, local people?
even if it doesn't rain, the water won't dry on some parts of the route so it will still get muddy i think

 

[karlboss]

None of the sections used are 5 stars.
Reduced in length etc.

Way too much carnage if the toughest paves were use here. Now its just right. A perfect challenge for the modern stage race peloton.

I have a feeling longer and harder(ie actually ride Paris Roubaix or similar) would actually be safer. The thinking being whilst skills would be pushed, it greatly reduces the necessity to be at the front when you hit the cobbles. There wouldn't be quite the crazy rush of 2010 to the first sector and the race is completely hectic from then on. PR cobbles are spread out over 150 km. Number one you can't maintain a crazy pace for 150km, you can try over 70. Number two if you fall there is time to come back if you're good enough in 150km. Then with long hard sectors the peloton will stretch out even more especially when you consider the number of non climbers who won't have any part at the front. A stretched peloton means fewer people fighting to be first onto each sector.
Though I do think keeping the stage length, and cobbles overall length the same, but increasing the difficulty of the cobbles would increase the stress going onto the first sector and make crashes more likely.

From a racing point of view a longer cobbled stage would demonstrate and award significant time to a GC contender who can actually ride cobbles, not just whoever gets lucky. Though luck always plays a part in cycle racing.

 

[Cimber]

 

[Cimber]

windy and rain it seems

http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Roubaix/forecasts/latest

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I have a feeling longer and harder(ie actually ride Paris Roubaix or similar) would actually be safer. The thinking being whilst skills would be pushed, it greatly reduces the necessity to be at the front when you hit the cobbles. There wouldn't be quite the crazy rush of 2010 to the first sector and the race is completely hectic from then on. PR cobbles are spread out over 150 km. Number one you can't maintain a crazy pace for 150km, you can try over 70. Number two if you fall there is time to come back if you're good enough in 150km. Then with long hard sectors the peloton will stretch out even more especially when you consider the number of non climbers who won't have any part at the front. A stretched peloton means fewer people fighting to be first onto each sector.
Though I do think keeping the stage length, and cobbles overall length the same, but increasing the difficulty of the cobbles would increase the stress going onto the first sector and make crashes more likely.

From a racing point of view a longer cobbled stage would demonstrate and award significant time to a GC contender who can actually ride cobbles, not just whoever gets lucky. Though luck always plays a part in cycle racing.

I can follow this idea, its just some of the cobbles on the original 5 star sectors really are bad plus a mech on a very long cobbles sector can see the service car miles behind.

On balance I think this model is better. A team can decide to play it defensively and limit the loss or go all in and gain time. Its up to the teams to apply the level of risk imo.

edit: Arenberg included for ref:

Different level imo.

 

[Jagartrott]

Looking good!

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Looking good!

Which sector is that?

 

[ILovecycling]

Weather updated on First page,from five sources.I enclosed weather radar too.Lets have a look.

Wind forecast is stronger than yesterday,it will be a bit warmer tho.Wet cobbles are 100% sure.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Secteur 2, Hornaing, is a five star secteur in Paris-Roubaix, isn't it?