2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 258km

[The Barb]

Re:

Can the reduced peloton catch the favorites if they gap them by 8-10 seconds going into the final kilometer?

8-10 seconds, no chance. 4-5 could even be difficult because more than likely it won't be a "reduced peloton" but scattered handfuls of riders.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Can the reduced peloton catch the favorites if they gap them by 8-10 seconds going into the final kilometer?

8-10 seconds, no chance. 4-5 could even be difficult because more than likely it won't be a "reduced peloton" but scattered handfuls of riders.

Yep, and the riders that go over the top first are the ones with the best legs. If the ones that had been dropped had the legs to catch them in the last 1.5km, they probably wouldn't have been dropped in the first place.

Obviously if a few riders go over the top first together and then start messing about because none of them want to lead, then the chasers would have a great chance of getting back on.

 

[Asero831]

Re: Re:

Can the reduced peloton catch the favorites if they gap them by 8-10 seconds going into the final kilometer?

8-10 seconds, no chance. 4-5 could even be difficult because more than likely it won't be a "reduced peloton" but scattered handfuls of riders.

so it would really be hard to make a case that Matthews will win

 

[TommyPlus]

Re: Re:

Can the reduced peloton catch the favorites if they gap them by 8-10 seconds going into the final kilometer?

8-10 seconds, no chance. 4-5 could even be difficult because more than likely it won't be a "reduced peloton" but scattered handfuls of riders.

so it would really be hard to make a case that Matthews will win

Maybe if there is a group of 10 riders chasing the leaders with a couple of teams with two riders.
Gerrans and Matthews etc then 8 seconds can be brought back.
If Gilbert and Valverde crested the Cauberg almost together would they work together until the sprint?

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Can the reduced peloton catch the favorites if they gap them by 8-10 seconds going into the final kilometer?

8-10 seconds, no chance. 4-5 could even be difficult because more than likely it won't be a "reduced peloton" but scattered handfuls of riders.

so it would really be hard to make a case that Matthews will win

Maybe if there is a group of 10 riders chasing the leaders with a couple of teams with two riders.
Gerrans and Matthews etc then 8 seconds can be brought back.
If Gilbert and Valverde crested the Cauberg almost together would they work together until the sprint?

Why wouldn't they? Valverde is little faster, but you never know with 250km races

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

ughhh Tim Wellens saying in an interview that he will wait till the final ascent of the Cauberg.....
I was hoping riders like Wellens and maybe in the future Tom Dumoulin would make hilly classics a bit more exciting again, because they can't rely on their sprint. Common, Lotto is riding with Vanendert, Gallopin and Wellens. They should make some moves. Vanendert is the best sprinter for the Cauberg anyway if it comes to that, the other two should try to attack, in my opinion.

 

[meat puppet]

^ well, perhaps it is not in your best interest to advertise attacking if that's the plan, no? I agree teams with several potential options should play many hands at once, but tend to think they will just wait for the sprint. hope I'm wrong.

 

[Carols]

Bala, PhilGil and Valgren for me.

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

ughhh Tim Wellens saying in an interview that he will wait till the final ascent of the Cauberg.....
I was hoping riders like Wellens and maybe in the future Tom Dumoulin would make hilly classics a bit more exciting again, because they can't rely on their sprint. Common, Lotto is riding with Vanendert, Gallopin and Wellens. They should make some moves. Vanendert is the best sprinter for the Cauberg anyway if it comes to that, the other two should try to attack, in my opinion.

Despressing right?
Why in the world would a rider like Wellens and dumoulin wait for the final ascent? Atleast Costa said he will try to attack before....

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Bala, PhilGil and Valgren for me.

Young Valgren! Yes yes One of the Saxo boys will win, Roman, Michael or Manuele

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

Can the reduced peloton catch the favorites if they gap them by 8-10 seconds going into the final kilometer?

8-10 seconds, no chance. 4-5 could even be difficult because more than likely it won't be a "reduced peloton" but scattered handfuls of riders.

so it would really be hard to make a case that Matthews will win

Maybe if there is a group of 10 riders chasing the leaders with a couple of teams with two riders.
Gerrans and Matthews etc then 8 seconds can be brought back.
If Gilbert and Valverde crested the Cauberg almost together would they work together until the sprint?

There's more chance of Gilbert and Valverde working together if they crested the Cauberg together than there is of anybody in a chasing group who DOESN'T ride for Orica taking a pull to bring Gilbert and Valverde back if Gerrans or Matthews are in the group.

Let's face it: almost nobody wants to go to a sprint with Michael Matthews at the end of a race like this, and nobody wants to tow Gerrans along because they know he won't pull and will outsprint them. Orica would need to have both of them and probably somebody else in the chase in the situation that you describe. What they really need is a group of about 10 to go over the Cauberg together at the front, and Gerrans to be one of those (or Matthews, but it's easier to make a case for Gerrans to be there). Then if people pull to stay away Gerrans can likely win the sprint, and if they don't then the group behind coming up might include Matthews.

That's the most reasonable way I can see a Matthews win occurring, and it's quite the unlikely scenario (but less surprising than if he was one of the strongest on the Cauberg outright).

 

[TommyPlus]

Sammy Sanchez to attack early on the Cauberg again and this time everyone looks around and he solos away FTW

 

[happytramp]

This discussion about how different riders might win today will probably be more interesting than the actual race.

 

[seaby71]

I think a lot is going to depend on the wind. If there is no tail wind and a head or cross wind then an 8 sec gap might be brought back and a small group will Finnish together.

 

[Bushman]

I think Valgren is being overrated quite a bit today. He is nowhere near good enough to keep up with the best on Cauberg. He does have quite a good engine though, and his best chance will probably be a WC like move with a couple of other strong riders.

 

[trevim]

Re:

I think Valgren is being overrated quite a bit today. He is nowhere near good enough to keep up with the best on Cauberg. He does have quite a good engine though, and his best chance will probably be a WC like move with a couple of other strong riders.

Precisely.

If the race comes down to the usual straight sprint up the Cauberg, I would be surprised if he's better than top15.

 

[Ruudz0r]

Re: Re:

ughhh Tim Wellens saying in an interview that he will wait till the final ascent of the Cauberg.....
I was hoping riders like Wellens and maybe in the future Tom Dumoulin would make hilly classics a bit more exciting again, because they can't rely on their sprint. Common, Lotto is riding with Vanendert, Gallopin and Wellens. They should make some moves. Vanendert is the best sprinter for the Cauberg anyway if it comes to that, the other two should try to attack, in my opinion.

Despressing right?
Why in the world would a rider like Wellens and dumoulin wait for the final ascent? Atleast Costa said he will try to attack before....

Wellens has always opened in these races, he might want to know how far he is off the best guys if he saves his legs till the end. I think thats fine for a young guy to do once in a while.

 

[sir fly]

I struggle every season to find the excitement after the cobbles.
Gallopin Tony for me today.

 

[Carstenbf]

Yeah, was just about to say the same wrt to Valgren. I think it's great that he's mentioned among the outsiders, but no way he can hope to follow Phil/Bala and co up Cauberg. He'll have to go early, but then again so does a lot of others. If looking for a Danish outsider, I'd suggest Birdsong. Insists he's on good form atm. Same problem though, also have to go in a late group.

My money is on Valverde, but hoping for Alaphilippe to do well.

 

[Miburo]

Gilbert never lost against piti on the cauberg, what reason can you have to bet now on piti?

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Gilbert never lost against piti on the cauberg, what reason can you have to bet now on piti?

My reason would be that they are pretty evenly matched, but Valverde is nearly twice the price of Gilbert to win.

 

[Netserk]

He lost to him two years ago.

 

[Carols]

Bloody pay beIN stream is a black box

 

[Shardi]

Re:

He lost to him two years ago.

he wasn't particularly lean back then, looks better now!

 

[Miburo]

Re:

He lost to him two years ago.

On the cauberg? no he didn't LOL