2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 258km

[DFA123]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 2

That's a bit of a strange comment. Two years ago Henao beat Martin, and he was injured last year.

Two years ago Martin had mechanical close to the finish, so he started Mur de Huy badly positioned. 250 meters to go he was not even in the top15. I think he rode final 300 meters far quicker, than anyone else in that race. And would have likely won it if he was positioned better.

The mechanical was about 25km from the finish. He had plenty of time to move up through the peloton if he wanted to - but he said he deliberately went relatiely slowly on the first part of Huy, hoping other riders would blow up. Given that, it's no surprise that he finished the last 300 metres faster than most.

 

[Anderis]

Ok, I was not aware of the whole picture and I remembered some things wrongly, it seems.

I still think Dan is a bit more capable than some people give him a credit for it, though.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 2

That's a bit of a strange comment. Two years ago Henao beat Martin, and he was injured last year.

Two years ago Martin had mechanical close to the finish, so he started Mur de Huy badly positioned. 250 meters to go he was not even in the top15. I think he rode final 300 meters far quicker, than anyone else in that race. And would have likely won it if he was positioned better.

The mechanical was about 25km from the finish. He had plenty of time to move up through the peloton if he wanted to - but he said he deliberately went relatiely slowly on the first part of Huy, hoping other riders would blow up. Given that, it's no surprise that he finished the last 300 metres faster than most.

Maybe you missed the point that he climbed the Muir de Huy faster than anyone else ...not just the last 300 m...and also the mechanical was not long before the climb as I recall

Last year he went to the front alot earlier and finished 2nd

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

What about Jelle Vanendert, the Zubeldia of the hills? No one seems to care about him, but he is always solid in the Ardennes.

Of course he is an outsider but the problem is he doesn't have the pure power the other guys do, it's similar to with Dan Martin, unless they get away in a decent move a little earlier they just won't be able to compete with Gilbert, Valverde, Kwiatkowski and maybe Matthews on the real powerclimb, of course I would love to be proven wrong

A few years ago, though, that was Simon Gerrans: the guy who once was a threat because of good tactical riding, who threw it all away to be a guy who came around about 7th in the uphill sprint finish in every hilly Classic. It was only when he really developed his sprint to the point where he would be a favourite from a reduced bunch that he became the rider he's now known as, and the racing has got so cowardly that it allows him to use his one weapon to win.

Also, Dan Martin is very much not a placements rider. He's a guy who has gained a lot of his palmarès out of others' cowardice, but not because he profits from cowardice like Gerrans, but because he's prepared to take a risk when nobody else wants to make the race.

And how many wins has Valverde had by riding like Gerrans ? Gerrans like Valverde is a better sprinter than a climber but they have the balance that enables them to win hilly classics or even not so hilly classics. Valverde was never going to win a Tour and Gerrans used to be just a stage hunter. I have never understood the hate for Gerrans when he is only doing what others do but is more successful at it. Maybe if he ran placings instead of winning, people would like him more. Very strange. If Gerrans is a coward all sprinters are cowards but they are just doing their job. The idea is to win not lose with style. Gerrans is not a good TT rider so he is only riding to his strengths unless he is supposed to attack like Cancellara or GVA get caught and lose. Not very smart when you have a sprint like Gerrans.

Valverde is a climber who can sprint, and Gerrans is some kind of a sprinter who can be competitive on shorter climbs. They are not even close

They are close in their tactics not so much in other ways I admit but it depends on the course but you can't deny that Valverde has often copped the same flak for doing what Gerrans does which is not working or attacking and waiting for the sprint at least in the classics anyway.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yea, but the difference is, in smaller races, Valverde comes out of his shell. He only races that negatively in the larger races when the pressure is on. Gerrans ALWAYS races that negatively.

 

[DFA123]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 2

That's a bit of a strange comment. Two years ago Henao beat Martin, and he was injured last year.

Two years ago Martin had mechanical close to the finish, so he started Mur de Huy badly positioned. 250 meters to go he was not even in the top15. I think he rode final 300 meters far quicker, than anyone else in that race. And would have likely won it if he was positioned better.

The mechanical was about 25km from the finish. He had plenty of time to move up through the peloton if he wanted to - but he said he deliberately went relatiely slowly on the first part of Huy, hoping other riders would blow up. Given that, it's no surprise that he finished the last 300 metres faster than most.

Maybe you missed the point that he climbed the Muir de Huy faster than anyone else ...not just the last 300 m...and also the mechanical was not long before the climb as I recall

Last year he went to the front alot earlier and finished 2nd

Well, I'm not denying that Martin is a strong rider at FW. The point is though that you dismissed Henao's chances saying:

'Have you watched this race in last 2 years ....Bar mishap FW is tailor made for Dan Martin'.

Yet Henao has raced it once and finished ahead of Martin in that time. I don't know how you can be so dismissive of Henao's chances based on the last two years; FW is made for him as much as it is for Martin.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

Guy comes back without any competition for a long time - nearly wins the first stage race he participates in, now has a chance of winning Amstel? Please, God, no.

Pais Vasco was his 2nd stage race, not his first.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Even though it's Cauberg, I think Valverde is gonna take it. He has shown the greatest form this spring and he did sort of win a mass sprint finish in catalunya.

***** Valverde
**** PhilGil; Matthews
*** Kwiatek; Henao; JRod
** Bauke M; Gallopin; Felline; Gerrans
* Wellens; Vanendert; Valgren; Gasparotto; D Martin

 

[Fernandez]

Re:

Even though it's Cauberg, I think Valverde is gonna take it. He has shown the greatest form this spring and he did sort of win a mass sprint finish in catalunya.

***** Valverde
**** PhilGil; Matthews
*** Kwiatek; Henao; JRod
** Bauke M; Gallopin; Felline; Gerrans
* Wellens; Vanendert; Valgren; Gasparotto; D Martin

Indeed, i would say Valverde is the main favourite for the three Ardennes races, like he was last year.

 

[Brullnux]

Hoping for an awesome break going from about 20-30km out of about 8 riders, and causing the whole peloton to split, ToF and PR style.

 

[manafana]

Dan always prefers LBL so never expect full gas from him here, and usually garmin have let someone else lead here. Quiet like chances Mollema could shine here he has done well for his move to Trek

 

[Sasquatch]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 2

Henao's best chance is FW. No chance in Amstel. If anyone can beat Rodriguez/Valverde in FW, it's Henao.

Have you watched this race in last 2 years ....Bar mishap FW is tailor made for Dan Martin

What has Martin done this year to suggest he's in better form than Valverde? Martin won't win FW.

 

[Anderis]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 2

What has Martin done this year to suggest he's in better form than Valverde? Martin won't win FW.

I'm not saying Martin will beat Valverde, but last year he did nothing until mid April and it didn't prevent him from being very strong at La Fleche.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Even though it's Cauberg, I think Valverde is gonna take it. He has shown the greatest form this spring and he did sort of win a mass sprint finish in catalunya.

***** Valverde
**** PhilGil; Matthews
*** Kwiatek; Henao; JRod
** Bauke M; Gallopin; Felline; Gerrans
* Wellens; Vanendert; Valgren; Gasparotto; D Martin

Indeed, i would say Valverde is the main favourite for the three Ardennes races, like he was last year.

Valverde has one thing against him, he almost never rode the Cauberg convincingly. The hill doesn't suit him for some reason.

The one thing which does suit him is that the finish isn't at the top anymore but 1km past it, so he can come back and win a sprint. But on the old finish Valv. was doomed. I even remembered years he was dropepd on the Keutenberg.

The problem is basically AGR hills are too short.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 2

That's a bit of a strange comment. Two years ago Henao beat Martin, and he was injured last year.

Two years ago Martin had mechanical close to the finish, so he started Mur de Huy badly positioned. 250 meters to go he was not even in the top15. I think he rode final 300 meters far quicker, than anyone else in that race. And would have likely won it if he was positioned better.

The mechanical was about 25km from the finish. He had plenty of time to move up through the peloton if he wanted to - but he said he deliberately went relatiely slowly on the first part of Huy, hoping other riders would blow up. Given that, it's no surprise that he finished the last 300 metres faster than most.

Maybe you missed the point that he climbed the Muir de Huy faster than anyone else ...not just the last 300 m...and also the mechanical was not long before the climb as I recall

Last year he went to the front alot earlier and finished 2nd

Well, I'm not denying that Martin is a strong rider at FW. The point is though that you dismissed Henao's chances saying:

'Have you watched this race in last 2 years ....Bar mishap FW is tailor made for Dan Martin'.

Yet Henao has raced it once and finished ahead of Martin in that time. I don't know how you can be so dismissive of Henao's chances based on the last two years; FW is made for him as much as it is for Martin.

I never dismissed Henao...he has a good chance IMO but you were the one who started by sayign he is the only one that can trouble Valverde & Purito ..>and I just took the opportunity to let you know that this is not true ...Dan Martin is ideal for Muir de Huy climb and therefore could also beat Purito/Valverde

Also according to his twitter account Martin is looking to win in Amstel Gold too in case some are thinking he is keeping his powder dry for later in the week

 

[CyclingEnthusiast]

Well Dan Martin is going for it tomorrow anyway if there was any doubt, from his Facebook..

"Ready for the maze of small roads and hills that is Amstel. Unique race i'm yet to crack. Try and change that tomorrow."

Hopefully he'll try something from long range with a few of the others or just give us a good showing, should be a good race!

 

[DFA123]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 2

I never dismissed Henao...he has a good chance IMO but you were the one who started by sayign he is the only one that can trouble Valverde & Purito ..>and I just took the opportunity to let you know that this is not true ...Dan Martin is ideal for Muir de Huy climb and therefore could also beat Purito/Valverde

Also according to his twitter account Martin is looking to win in Amstel Gold too in case some are thinking he is keeping his powder dry for later in the week

I think you're confusing me with someone else, I've never said anything like that. In my opinion, there are loads of people that can trouble Valverde and Purito in all three of the Ardennes races. Martin and Henao are both among them; although I doubt either will actually win.

 

[Sasquatch]

1. Valverde
2. Valgren
3. Gilbert

6 seconds later

4. Matthews
5. Kwiatkowski
6. Vanendert
7. Henao
8. Rodriguez
9. Wellens
10. Gallopin

 

[manafana]

Guys what winds are we looking at? Just wondering will we finish on time ie before 3.45pm London time, need get out the door on time.

 

[meat puppet]

Mild N to NE winds apparently.

 

[MatParker117]

Break:

Laurens De Vreese (Astana), Jan Polanc (Lampre), Timo Roosen (LottoNL-Jumbo), Linus Gerdemann (Cult Energy), Johann Van Van Zyl (MTN-Qhubeka) and Mike Terpstra (Team Roompot).

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

Even though it's Cauberg, I think Valverde is gonna take it. He has shown the greatest form this spring and he did sort of win a mass sprint finish in catalunya.

***** Valverde
**** PhilGil; Matthews
*** Kwiatek; Henao; JRod
** Bauke M; Gallopin; Felline; Gerrans
* Wellens; Vanendert; Valgren; Gasparotto; D Martin

Indeed, i would say Valverde is the main favourite for the three Ardennes races, like he was last year.

Yes, he's the bookies favourite for all 3 as well.

 

[lemon cheese cake]

Re:

Break:

Laurens De Vreese (Astana), Jan Polanc (Lampre), Timo Roosen (LottoNL-Jumbo), Linus Gerdemann (Cult Energy), Johann Van Van Zyl (MTN-Qhubeka) and Mike Terpstra (Team Roompot).

Would have expected the italian pro conti teams to be in the break.

 

[Asero831]

Can the reduced peloton catch the favorites if they gap them by 8-10 seconds going into the final kilometer?

 

[trevim]

Re: 2015 Ardennes Classics: 50th Amstel Gold Race - 4.19 - 2

I'm looking forward to see what Valgren can do here as a team leader. Top 15 would be decent but I doubt he can do much more than that considering the amount of seasoned specialists that will line up today. His performance in the Worlds certainly bodes well for him.

I hope Gilbert gets one step closer to Raas today and maybe Rui Costa in the top 10 as well.