2015 Tour de France Route

[LaFlorecita]

If he tries (hard) to take time wherever he can, he will fade in the third week. And lose.

Much better to be near the others in GC and then use all his power in the Alpes to decide the race.

And lose the race because he doesn't have any power at that point? I can't see how he'll be able to create gaps in the Alpes. IMO it's better to try and get small chunks of time earlier on in the race, then hang on to it.

 

[ILovecycling]

Not sure you understood Poursuivant's post I think he is surprised Froome's odds are so much worse (ie less chance to win according to the bookmaker) than Quintana's.

I understood . I think its not a good stage at all for quintana,especially as its early in the race.

 

[Red Rick]

The finish is perfect for Alberto if he is in okay shape

if
if
if
if
if

ok

 

[Dr. Juice]

And lose the race because he doesn't have any power at that point? I can't see how he'll be able to create gaps in the Alpes. IMO it's better to try and get small chunks of time earlier on in the race, then hang on to it.

From experience...Giro riders have to ride themselves into condition during the Tour. No competition between Giro and Tour. First MTF will be difficult. But the endurance won't be a problem. I remember Pantani getting stronger and stronger...Basso the same in 2005 to a lesser extent.
The same Alberto...the hunger knock on the Galbier clouds it a bit but he was getting in better form at the end of the Tour (Alpe + TT).

 

[LaFlorecita]

From experience...Giro riders have to ride themselves into condition during the Tour. No competition between Giro and Tour. First MTF will be difficult. But the endurance won't be a problem. I remember Pantani getting stronger and stronger...Basso the same in 2005 to a lesser extent.

In 2011 it seemed like Alberto got worse and worse as the race progressed.. relatively of course, he was never terrible.
Alberto might do a race between the Giro & TDF, by the way.

 

[Dr. Juice]

In 2011 it seemed like Alberto got worse and worse as the race progressed.. relatively of course, he was never terrible.
Alberto might do a race between the Giro & TDF, by the way.

I don't think he was getting worse. Alpe and the TT were the last 2 days. Made up 35-40 sec or so on the other favorites in Alpe d' Huez (the day before he lost crucial time but he said it was hunger) and then 3rd place in the TT.
It's all a bit subjective of course.
A race inbetween might not be a bad idea.

 

[May0maniac]

On that stage he will mostly just follow others, I think. With the Giro in his legs he will have to save himself and only go full gas when he can convert it to (meaningful) time gaps.

I don't think that we'll see relevant gaps on this stage, the GC guys will watch eachother and we'll have an upill sprint on the last 1,3km, the 4km before final ramp aren't very steep so I son't think anyone will launch an early attack.
How hard is the final climb on stage 11?

 

[Dr. Juice]

I don't think that we'll see relevant gaps on this stage, the GC guys will watch eachother and we'll have an upill sprint on the last 1,3km, the 4km before final ramp aren't very steep so I son't think anyone will launch an early attack.
How hard is the final climb on stage 11?

Until Cauterets. 10 km @ 4.2 % ...some easy 3 %...some 4-5.5 % ....and 1 km @ 6.5 %

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I don't think that we'll see relevant gaps on this stage, the GC guys will watch eachother and we'll have an upill sprint on the last 1,3km, the 4km before final ramp aren't very steep so I son't think anyone will launch an early attack.
How hard is the final climb on stage 11?

I think Sky will go mutant on the first major MTF, assuming Froome makes it through the first week. I think he'll try to attack regardless of the gradients in the final kms, unless there's a strong headwind.

He can't afford to wait until the Alps to attack, IMO.

 

[staubsauger]

I think Sky will go mutant on the first major MTF, assuming Froome makes it through the first week. I think he'll try to attack regardless of the gradients in the final kms, unless there's a strong headwind.

He can't afford to wait until the Alps to attack, IMO.

From my pov he trained just that at last years Vuelta. But hope you're right of course.

 

[veji11]

I don't think that we'll see relevant gaps on this stage, the GC guys will watch eachother and we'll have an upill sprint on the last 1,3km, the 4km before final ramp aren't very steep so I son't think anyone will launch an early attack.
How hard is the final climb on stage 11?

Stage 11 will most likely see the biggest favourites arriving together in a group of 8/12 leaders with some of the best teammates pulling much of the way (a Majka, a Porte). The stage winner should be the fastest of the favourites, a Valverde if there or a in form Dan Martin.

It is typically the type of stage where nothing much happens for the very best, but where some second rate leaders lose hope of a top 10 by being dropped in the penultimate climb and seeing their 30secs time gap balloon to close to a minute in the longish but very draft friendly last bit to Cauterets.

 

[fauniera]

Stage 11 has Voeckler written all over it.

 

[staubsauger]

Stage 11 has Voeckler written all over it.

But Voeckler isn't 100% Voeckler anymore. May've written more Backelandts, Kadri, Peraud, Gallopin, Berhane or Wellens all over.

 

[ILovecycling]

But Voeckler isn't 100% Voeckler anymore. May've written more Backelandts, Kadri, Peraud, Gallopin, Berhane or Wellens all over.

berhane?others are fine but berhane?
how is he a rouler-puncher?

 

[veji11]

But Voeckler isn't 100% Voeckler anymore. May've written more Backelandts, Kadri, Peraud, Gallopin, Berhane or Wellens all over.

It depends on whether some favorite teams want to do the work in Aspin and Tourmalet or if a breakaway goes away with enough margin. In case of breakaway true that guys like Gallopin, Wellens, Gautier, Kadri, De Marchi, Vuillermoz, Sepulveda and such have their chances. Let's not discount the few second rate leaders who could already have lost all their TOP10 chances because of falls or bad luck in the first week.

 

[Netserk]

The whole point of that stage design is to include Tourmalet and make sure the break will get the stage win (and therefore a bigger probability of a French stage win). None of the favourites will do anything in that stage and the group that they'll arrive in will probably be bigger than 20 imho.

 

[jens_attacks]

Froome will set the race on fire from gripp!#!

 

[Dr. Juice]

Stage 18 and 19 are the best ones. St.Jean de Maurienne with Glandon + a hard 4 km climb after the descent. After that the finish is not far away.
And the stage to La Toussuire with Croix de Fer (the hard side with 21 km @ 7,4 %- almost Stelvio ) , Mollard and the final climb not having a single flat km since the foot of the Croix de Fer. (-80 km to go)

The rest is not really promising. Stage 11 is for the breakaway, bad positioning the day after Pierre St. Martin and the day before Plateau de Beille.

Maybe we'll see something on stage 17 (Pra Loup). Someone might attack in the last 2 km of the Col d' Allos and do the descent -which is steeper than the 5-6 % ascent before - full gas. That way you can start the climb of Pra Loup 30 sec ahead of your opponent.
Pra Loup is only 6 km long (and hard enough ) so an ideal distance to push hard till the end.

 

[gregrowlerson]

The whole point of that stage design is to include Tourmalet and make sure the break will get the stage win (and therefore a bigger probability of a French stage win). None of the favourites will do anything in that stage and the group that they'll arrive in will probably be bigger than 20 imho.

I still have high hopes for this stage 11, my favourite designed one of the parcours. Love having the harder climb be the penultimate one, and the long drag to the finish is nice. I think we can see epic racing like we did to Beret '06 and to Tignes '07. So okay, there was a little more climbing on those stages, and they weren't sandwiched between other MTF's, but still I believe we can see some good racing between the GC guys on the way to Cauterets.

 

[Dr. Juice]

I still have high hopes for this stage 11, my favourite designed one of the parcours. Love having the harder climb be the penultimate one, and the long drag to the finish is nice. I think we can see epic racing like we did to Beret '06 and to Tignes '07. So okay, there was a little more climbing on those stages, and they weren't sandwiched between other MTF's, but still I believe we can see some good racing between the GC guys on the way to Cauterets.

I don't know. After the descent of the Tourmalet there is 12.5 km of false descent (2%) before the last climb starts. There have to be special circumstances ( riders in the break etc). Otherwise there might be a strong selection on the Tourmalet, but the best riders will be still together.
And to make the difference on the way to Cauterets you need to be Birillo 2006 (Aprica).

 

[jens_attacks]

in 1995, bjarne riis exploded the race on tourmalet before cauterets

so there is hope

 

[Gigs_98]

well, the first week has some interesting moments (cobbles, Mur de Huy, Mur de Bretagne, the rout of the TTT would also be great but it has one gigantic problem...it is a TTT) and I also like some mountain stages (Pra Loup stage, Tourmalet stage, Glandon stage) but all these interesting mountain stages are not difficult enough. So the GC contenders will concentrate on the really hard mountain top finishes which will probably be very boring because, the stages are not long ennough or there are no other climbs near the final climb.
We can just hope that the fight for the gc wont be as boring as in the last three years (but I fear it will be)

 

[McLovin]

Arriv?e ? Gap, nouveaut?, @letour passera par la rue de la Descente! Mais ca monte, 1km ? 10% / 1km at 10% before Gap

https://twitter.com/letour/status/573133138454548480/photo/1

 

[icefire]

Arriv?e ? Gap, nouveaut?, @letour passera par la rue de la Descente! Mais ca monte, 1km ? 10% / 1km at 10% before Gap

https://twitter.com/letour/status/573133138454548480/photo/1

Did ASO buy Unipublic or was it the other way around?

 

[McLovin]

Did ASO buy Unipublic or was it the other way around?

Why? The finish is not on top of that climb.