2015 Vuelta stage 14: Vitoria > Fuente del Chivo 215km

[May0maniac]

Believe me or not, but I say tomorrow will decide the Vuelta. Tomorrow is the stage which suits Aru absolutely perfect, with a medium steep mtf and at least one 1st category climb before, where Astana could set a high pace to isolate Dumoulin (which shouldnt be difficult). If he doesnt get time on Tom tomorrow there are only two mtf's left and Ermita de Alba probably suits Dumoulin better (considering what we have seen until now). Btw, this predictions doesnt include the last 4 stages because I have absolutely no idea how these stages will be raced. But the first two downhill finishes are quite easy and the last one has a flat section directly after the top of the last climb, so Aru will need a big advantage or he would be caught by Dumoulin.

I wouldn't underestimate the effect that 3 consecutive MTF can have, I wouldn't be surprised if Tom really cracks on stage 16 and looses minutes.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

lol, what an epic stage finish name.

As a curiosity, Fuente del Chivo is on the slopes of Pico Tres Mares, so called because it is the (only) mountain whose waters flow to the three seas surrounding the Iberian Peninsula.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

lol, what an epic stage finish name.

As a curiosity, Fuente del Chivo is on the slopes of Pico Tres Mares, so called because it is the (only) mountain whose waters flow to the three seas surrounding the Iberian Peninsula.

Yes, it is a quite magic place with lot of snow in winter time.
All the stage goes from the heart of the primitive Castilla.
The palce is very windy and there is a lot of cold here today.
Escudo is hard and the flat after Escudo will be hard.
A stage for people with endurance, I dont see Aru tomorrow, better for Valverde and Domoulin will be ok.

The descent of Estacas de Trueba very complicated.

 

[Velolover2]

Winner bet:
Aru (brain)
Purito (heart)

I wouldn't be surprised if Dumoulin survives without losing much time. He is quite explosive in the last K. They will have to drop him before that. Chaves should be good too.

 

[Taxus4a]

Now is froozen in Fuente del Chivo.

 

[Sciatic]

Re: Re:

Do we have any chances of seeing GC attacks on the penultimate climb? Perhaps even on the long downhill of the cat 3 climb?

No, that's just suicide. After the top of that 2nd category climb, there are still 40 flat km's left before the last climb. Way too much.

The only thing GC-wise that can happen, is that someone in the top-8 has a bad day and drops on the penultimate climb, and the other teams will ride full to drop him for good.

It may not make a BIG difference, but there is an anomaly re; this stage and the Cat 1 Escudo climb far from the finish: there is only a short descent after the summit of that climb. On most big climbs that come mid-stage, the long descents allow anyone who was dropped on the climb to get back on. This, in fact, is one of the dis-incentives to attacking on such climbs: any gap obtained on the climb is lost by the bottom of the descent. Tomorrow, though, anyone dropped on Escudo will have to put out watts on the flat section to get back to the front group. Then will have plenty of KM's to do that, but will have used up more of their resources just to catch up. Perhaps this circumstance will be an incentive for attacks from the main group? Or at least for Astana to ride hard on Escudo, creating more attrition among the favorites . . .

Then again, maybe not

 

[manafana]

Majka to strike the iron for me on this one, he has been sneaking around so far this one suits him.

 

[ice&fire]

Just checked the stage schedule. We will only get the climb to El Escudo on TV if they ride as per the slowest average speed foreseen by the organiser (35km/h).
My memories of this climb are mixed. In 1982 the stage finish was in the town of Reinosa and El Escudo made carnage. In 1987 and 1993 the stage finish was in Alto Campóo (4kms below this year's finish) and El Escudo just reduced the peloton size but there was nothing worth remembering.

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

lol, what an epic stage finish name.

As a curiosity, Fuente del Chivo is on the slopes of Pico Tres Mares, so called because it is the (only) mountain whose waters flow to the three seas surrounding the Iberian Peninsula.

The watershed of Vuelta!

 

[Forunculo]

The flat between the two last climbs is very interesting from a tactical point of view, but...

 

[Hugo Koblet]

The break away will take this. Torres, Dombrowski, Kiryienka etc. are the obvious choices, but some strong contenders could include De Clercq, Elissonde and Atapuma, not to forget dark horses like Zoidl, Bennett, Rossetto and Jeandezboz.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

The break away will take this. Torres, Dombrowski, Kiryienka etc. are the obvious choices, but some strong contenders could include De Clercq, Elissonde and Atapuma, not to forget dark horses like Zoidl, Bennett, Rossetto and Jeandezboz.

Zoidl said in an interview that he had to work as a domestique for schleck, until now. It sounded like he hasn't been allowed to go into breaks. Oh and if you question if it makes any sense to waste someone like Zoidl who could attack on easier finishes like stage 10 or who could go into breakaways, no it doesnt.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

The break away will take this. Torres, Dombrowski, Kiryienka etc. are the obvious choices, but some strong contenders could include De Clercq, Elissonde and Atapuma, not to forget dark horses like Zoidl, Bennett, Rossetto and Jeandezboz.

Zoidl said in an interview that he had to work as a domestique for schleck, until now. It sounded like he hasn't been allowed to go into breaks. Oh and if you question if it makes any sense to waste someone like Zoidl who could attack on easier finishes like stage 10 or who could go into breakaways, no it doesnt.

Zoidl was in the break in stage 10.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I reckon Movistar wont control things and send people of the road. Visconti probably the only with a winners chance. He has been decent, but nothing special so far.

I think the stage is more about accumulated fatigue due to the length of the stage considering the climb is somewhat an easy climb. I saw the Finnish dude tweeting it was (last 14.00 km, 6.34 %), so it isnt super easy, maybe a little harder than Alpujarra. I expect Landa and Aru to go with 3-4 left and take 20 seconds or so on Dumoulin.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

I reckon Movistar wont control things and send people of the road. Visconti probably the only with a winners chance. He has been decent, but nothing special so far.

I think the stage is more about accumulated fatigue due to the length of the stage considering the climb is somewhat an easy climb. I saw the Finnish dude tweeting it was (last 14.00 km, 6.34 %), so it isnt super easy, maybe a little harder than Alpujarra. I expect Landa and Aru to go with 3-4 left and take 20 seconds or so on Dumoulin.

Do you know how Amador is doing? He could be another option for Movistar today.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

The break away will take this. Torres, Dombrowski, Kiryienka etc. are the obvious choices, but some strong contenders could include De Clercq, Elissonde and Atapuma, not to forget dark horses like Zoidl, Bennett, Rossetto and Jeandezboz.

Zoidl said in an interview that he had to work as a domestique for schleck, until now. It sounded like he hasn't been allowed to go into breaks. Oh and if you question if it makes any sense to waste someone like Zoidl who could attack on easier finishes like stage 10 or who could go into breakaways, no it doesnt.

Zoidl was in the break in stage 10.

oops, I only saw the last kilometers in a yt video, and normally the austrian newspapers write about austrians in gt breakaways. Just forget what I wrote

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

The break away will take this. Torres, Dombrowski, Kiryienka etc. are the obvious choices, but some strong contenders could include De Clercq, Elissonde and Atapuma, not to forget dark horses like Zoidl, Bennett, Rossetto and Jeandezboz.

Zoidl said in an interview that he had to work as a domestique for schleck, until now. It sounded like he hasn't been allowed to go into breaks. Oh and if you question if it makes any sense to waste someone like Zoidl who could attack on easier finishes like stage 10 or who could go into breakaways, no it doesnt.

Zoidl was in the break in stage 10.

oops, I only saw the last kilometers in a yt video, and normally the austrian newspapers write about austrians in gt breakaways. Just forget what I wrote

Well, it didn't take very long though since that break of 40 riders split up and he was one of the first riders to get dropped. They were caught before TV coverage was on.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I reckon Movistar wont control things and send people of the road. Visconti probably the only with a winners chance. He has been decent, but nothing special so far.

I think the stage is more about accumulated fatigue due to the length of the stage considering the climb is somewhat an easy climb. I saw the Finnish dude tweeting it was (last 14.00 km, 6.34 %), so it isnt super easy, maybe a little harder than Alpujarra. I expect Landa and Aru to go with 3-4 left and take 20 seconds or so on Dumoulin.

Do you know how Amador is doing? He could be another option for Movistar today.

Amador is going like ***, he should be improving and the climb is a good climb for him, but I cant imagine him being close to the best from a break. But I dont know for sure if he just has hidden it so far, I doubt it tho

 

[TommyPlus]

Sammy Sanchez abandons

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Dumoulin says his tactic is not to TT up every climb, only when he feels he cannot do more. If he feels well he even wants to attack like in the first few days.

His DS believes stage 14 and 15 are not a real problem, but stage 16 will be a real test once again

 

[Arredondo]

The end of Sammy?

What a great rider he was. A little bit underestimated the past years because of the 'big Spanish 3', but he was part of that for sure.

 

[TommyPlus]

De Gendt also abandons! Dropping like flies

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

The end of Sammy?

What a great rider he was. A little bit underestimated the past years because of the 'big Spanish 3', but he was part of that for sure.

Wasnt really underestimated or underrated, he unfortunately just stopped to produce from 2012 and onwards like he had done before. Meanwhile, Valv and Rodriguez almost just got better while Contador was Contador. If I was Sami's body I would feel robbed as well.

Edit: My bad, his 2012 was actually very decent apart form the Tour failure

 

[Popchu]

No breakaway established yet, which means a very high pace. I'm curious whether Quintana will survive the first part of this stage.

 

[TommyPlus]

Re: Re:

The end of Sammy?

What a great rider he was. A little bit underestimated the past years because of the 'big Spanish 3', but he was part of that for sure.

Wasnt really underestimated or underrated, he unfortunately just stopped to produce from 2012 and onwards like he had done before. Meanwhile, Valv and Rodriguez almost just got better while Contador was Contador. If I was Sami's body I would feel robbed as well.

To be fair he was 34 in 2012