2015 Vuelta Stage 17 : Burgos - Burgos ITT 39 km

[Sophistic]

900m altitude shouldnt be underestimated, vo2max already ~5% lower

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

Whether he winds up winning or not, Dumo is looking like he'll likely at least make the overall podium and I can't recall the last time a Dutch rider finished on the podium of a GT. Who was the last Dutchie to do that? The last to win?

Last Dutch to podium a GT was Erik Breukink, Tour 1990. Zoetemelk most recent winner, in 1980.

Wow. I know the focus has been mostly on classics (particularly with the Belgians) but it's still crazy to me that the only Belgian or Dutch rider to podium a GT in the last 20 years was De Gendt.

 

[StannisBaratheon]

Re:

If you look at the TT of tomorrow and the one last year, you see that in both TT's, the last 25 km's are flat. Only the beginning part was tougher last year then now, but still there are some really small climbs. And in the last 10 km, there's also a small hill, and 2 k's downhill.

And last year, Purito lost 1.49 on winner Tony Martin, while Aru lost 2.03.

The cat 3 climb surely played a part in Aru and Purito limiting their losses. This year's TT is completely flat.

 

[Flamin]

Purito said after a recon of the course he expected a pancake flat one but it's harder than he thought.

This is the track:
First 24km
Next 10.5km with the climb to the Castillo, ~300m at 10%

From there it's slighty downhill towards the city centre again.

 

[BigMac]

Thanks Flam, can you make the tracks public please?

 

[PhiLiz]

Re:

so most people agree there will only be 30 seconds or so maximum time gaps between 1st an 2nd GC after TT?

Id tom had 20 second lead would that b enough?

If aru has any lead will that be enough to win?

I, for one, agree.

I'd be a bit suprised if Rodriguez doesn't concede at least 2:15 to Dumoulin. Probably more.

Aru's gap is harder to predict but I'd guess 2:00 is likely. Same with Majka.

It's a pitty Quintana is so empty. I'm expecting him to move up to 5th tomorrow though. More than that it'd take a really bad day from the climbers in the Top 4.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

Whether he winds up winning or not, Dumo is looking like he'll likely at least make the overall podium and I can't recall the last time a Dutch rider finished on the podium of a GT. Who was the last Dutchie to do that? The last to win?

Last Dutch to podium a GT was Erik Breukink, Tour 1990. Zoetemelk most recent winner, in 1980.

Wow. I know the focus has been mostly on classics (particularly with the Belgians) but it's still crazy to me that the only Belgian or Dutch rider to podium a GT in the last 20 years was De Gendt.

Robert Gesink was 2nd with two competitive stages remaining in the 2009 Vuelta, but crashed and lost a few minutes in the La Granja stage. He would have been in a position given the closing TT was under 30km long that year to potentially have done it, but that's by far the closest they've been in years.

 

[hrotha]

Mollema came 24" short of the podium at the 2011 Vuelta, but it's hard to imagine where he could have taken them.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Purito said after a recon of the course he expected a pancake flat one but it's harder than he thought.

This is the track:
First 24km
Next 10.5km with the climb to the Castillo, ~300m at 10%

From there it's slighty downhill towards the city centre again.

It's quite a hard TT. Thx for the info. It's not an panflat TT at all.

Otherwise, Dumoulin is better in a tougher TT then a really flat 'Tony Martin' one.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Re:

If you look at the TT of tomorrow and the one last year, you see that in both TT's, the last 25 km's are flat. Only the beginning part was tougher last year then now, but still there are some really small climbs. And in the last 10 km, there's also a small hill, and 2 k's downhill.

And last year, Purito lost 1.49 on winner Tony Martin, while Aru lost 2.03.

This year's track on paper allows a lot more Advantage to rolleurs than last year's track. JROd surely would lose 3 minutes + on a top shape Tony Martin on this years traxk.

 

[sir fly]

Re:

Purito said after a recon of the course he expected a pancake flat one but it's harder than he thought.

This is the track:
First 24km
Next 10.5km with the climb to the Castillo, ~300m at 10%

From there it's slighty downhill towards the city centre again.

Well, I'm not sure if it's better or worse for Purito than a pancake flat time trial.
These mild gradients over short stretches are rouleurs' cup of tea more than climbers'.
Maybe that's why he's saying it's harder than he expected... harder for him.

 

[jsem94]

Re:

Purito said after a recon of the course he expected a pancake flat one but it's harder than he thought.

This is the track:
First 24km
Next 10.5km with the climb to the Castillo, ~300m at 10%

From there it's slighty downhill towards the city centre again.

Interesting. It's going to be very close. All the top guys will be highly motivated.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Purito said after a recon of the course he expected a pancake flat one but it's harder than he thought.

This is the track:
First 24km
Next 10.5km with the climb to the Castillo, ~300m at 10%

From there it's slighty downhill towards the city centre again.

Funny. While dumoulin did his recon and thought it was perfect for himself and a real powerhouse test

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

To be more precise, Dumoulin says the course is tougher than expected, but 'More rolling power hills, exactly what I like best'

 

[classicomano]

Yeah Tom always prefered slightly hillier courses over pancake flat ones. But whatever, right now he would even win a mountain time trial.

 

[Põhja Konn]

While it may be harder than a simple pancake-flat course, it is anything but a mountain TT and as such could favour Dumoulin over flyweights like Purito even more. At false-flat gradients, the advantage that powerhouse TT-ers have over lightweight climbers, should be even greater than on a completely flat terrain.

Unless he has post-rest day blues, Dumoulin should get 2-2.30 minutes over Purito and Aru, and about 30 seconds to 1 minute less over Majka. Hard to predict how anyone performs straight after 2nd rest day, but if last two weeks are anything to go by, Dumoulin might even have a benefit of better overall form over his main competitors.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=27886

Is a good reference. Also rode for the GC there.. Also makes me think Aru might hold. He is not worse than Henao in such a TT and Henao only lost 2'01 here. I seriously think it will be Aru vs Dumoulin. Purito must have a really good day to surprise. For Majka it's impossible, even on a good day he'll lose at least 1'20

 

[classicomano]

Re:

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=27886

Is a good reference. Also rode for the GC there.. Also makes me think Aru might hold. He is not worse than Henao in such a TT and Henao only lost 2'01 here. I seriously think it will be Aru vs Dumoulin. Purito must have a really good day to surprise. For Majka it's impossible, even on a good day he'll lose at least 1'20

Tom has evolved since Suisse, and this isnt even his final form. Instead of fading, hes only getting stronger. I expect absolute carnage and him nuking the rest of the field off the map. Hes gonna win. The Vuelta.

 

[DFA123]

I think Aru will go really well here; probably finish top 20 overall and be in red by the end of the day. Hopefully Dumoulin takes the overall lead though, it would make for much better racing in the following three stages than just having Aru defending.

 

[sir fly]

Re:

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=27886

Is a good reference. Also rode for the GC there.. Also makes me think Aru might hold. He is not worse than Henao in such a TT and Henao only lost 2'01 here. I seriously think it will be Aru vs Dumoulin. Purito must have a really good day to surprise. For Majka it's impossible, even on a good day he'll lose at least 1'20

Good reference, indeed.

 

[Brullnux]

Kiry will win. He is near-invincible in fairly long, flat, maybe slightly hilly TTs in a difficult Grand tour

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re:

Are there 10,6,4 time bonuses on this stage??

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re:

I think Aru will go really well here; probably finish top 20 overall and be in red by the end of the day. Hopefully Dumoulin takes the overall lead though, it would make for much better racing in the following three stages than just having Aru defending.

Good point, that would make for better racing!

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=27886

Is a good reference. Also rode for the GC there.. Also makes me think Aru might hold. He is not worse than Henao in such a TT and Henao only lost 2'01 here. I seriously think it will be Aru vs Dumoulin. Purito must have a really good day to surprise. For Majka it's impossible, even on a good day he'll lose at least 1'20

Aru gained 56 seconds on Henao in the 25km long flat ITT in the Tour of Poland, that was a big surprise for me.
I think he'll loose 1'30 to Tom.

 

[jsem94]

I won't dare make predictions on how well the climbers will TT. But I'm fairly certain a certain Belorussian monster will win the stage.