2015 Vuelta Stage 17 : Burgos - Burgos ITT 39 km

[jsem94]

We better not be talking about he-who-shall-not-be-named now. I had almost erased him from my memory all together, and now the 2011 TDS is being brought up.. oh boy.

 

[snccdcno]

Let Levi ride in our memories forever.

 

[blaxland]

Dumoulin will smash this itt and aru/purito/majka will all be competeing for the podium.just seems like its time for the dutch to shine,and tom has been perfecct in vuelta so far.also think chaves might surprise a few,i mean he wont go top 10 or anything but might only loose 30 seconds to the other gc guys(purito/aru)

 

[greenedge]

Peter Velits and Cummings are other riders who could top 5.
I'd also love to see Damian Howson ride a good ITT.

 

[Jspear]

Lets see but Dumoulin not shoe in to win this tt, however he could put in some big time to the other GC guys around him.

Who in your opinion could beat him? He's one of the best tt'ers in the world right now.

 

[The Hitch]

Re:

Kiry will win. He is near-invincible in fairly long, flat, maybe slightly hilly TTs in a difficult Grand tour when the wind changes for the other contenders

Fixed it for you.

 

[PhiLiz]

Re:

And what is the chance of Dumoulin catching both Nieve and Chaves?

Pretty big, I'd say. And if his TT is super Moreno won't be safe either.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Lets see but Dumoulin not shoe in to win this tt, however he could put in some big time to the other GC guys around him.

Who in your opinion could beat him? He's one of the best tt'ers in the world right now.

:

Kiry will win. He is near-invincible in fairly long, flat, maybe slightly hilly TTs in a difficult Grand tour when the wind changes for the other contenders

Fixed it for you.

 

[Squirbos_19]

If Rodriguez and Aru can manage to stay within 1min of Dumoulin in GC after today then it's going to be very interesting.

 

[Sciocco]

I hope Majka rides well. If he had left the TdF on the second rest day he might be quite a bit better off than what he is now, though he did take many Tour stages easy. Also, I still wonder if he really will go for a win with an attack. I don't wanna get my hopes too high.

 

[TMP402]

Re:

If Rodriguez and Aru can manage to stay within 1min of Dumoulin in GC after today then it's going to be very interesting.

Three clear cut attacking opportunities after the ITT... still all to play for.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I'm really looking forward to this ITT with the interesting battle between Rodriguez, Aru and Dumoulin. I hope the latter takes red by 30 seconds or so. Unfortunately the stage win looks like a two way battle between Dumoulin and Kiryienka with no one really capable of causing an upset.

 

[orangerider]

Hoping for Murito to spare enough time and finally pull a 3-week GC win. In theory it should be possible - he's gotten a lot better at TT, has the experience to know how not to blow it, and has the motivation of a lifetime. But for some reason the luck isn't something he's been blessed with. Hope that changes, but acing a physically superior Dumoulin will be tough.

 

[Winnen]

It should be possible for Tom to take the red today. However, keeping it until sunday is a different matter. How many time does he need to be able to defend his jersey? I think at least 1 minute. He has no support in the mountains at all. Podium, very likely. Nr 1, not so.

 

[manafana]

Dumoulin hasn't lost much time in much more difficult days, his team can control on the flat etc, he might be a little isolated at end of stages but it hasn't stopped him till now, and he just has to watch Aru and Rodriguez who arn't exactly working together and are keen not to let the other off either.

 

[Ataraxus]

When it comes to predicting JRod vs TomD performance, I think the most solid reference is the Mont Saint Michel TT of TDF 2013.
Both in comparable lengths, flat profiles, JRod running for GC, TomD going strong for a good performance.
However, Purito's form in that stage wasn't ideal as he kept on improving in the latter stages of that Tour (advantage Rodriguez), and Dumoulin was much younger back then (Advantage Dumoulin).
Today's TT is towards the end of the Vuelta (advantage for climbers usually) Jrod is two years older than in 2013 (Advantage Dumoulin)
All in all, I think a 3 sec/km should be kept today as well(in 2013 Tour TT it was 3.1 sec/km) so 110-130 seconds advantage for Dumoulin seems plausible.

 

[Sasquatch]

Lets see but Dumoulin not shoe in to win this tt, however he could put in some big time to the other GC guys around him.

Who in your opinion could beat him? He's one of the best tt'ers in the world right now.

Oliveira and Sanchez

If this was at the start of the Vuelta, then Dumoulin would *** it in. But as it's near the end, riders are fatigued. Dumoulin has fought insanely hard to hang on. How much has it taken out of him? On the flip side Oliveira and Sanchez have been riding very very well and both good against the clock. Then you have a wildcard in Van Den Broeck who has been saving his legs and targeting this. Van Den Broeck is the freshest of them all.

Remember Peter Velits and Frederick Kessiakoff? They won Vuelta time trials near the back end of the race. Yes in Velits case it was wind assisted, but, after this tough vuelta, and after how much Dumoulin has worked, he's not a shoe in like people think he is.

Just because this is a time trial and Dumoulin is the best in the field, doesn't mean he's going to win. Fatigue. That will play a major factor.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

Go through the thread, it's not that long..

Thank you, mate. Could you post the final with the downhill section too?

I added it to the 2nd part so this is now the complete route in 2 parts:
First 24km
Next 14.34km

 

[SafeBet]

I hope Tommy D put 4 minutes into all of the other contenders.

 

[python]

Dumoulin not to take red; Purito to surprise by beating Aru by 10-20 seconds

disagree about dumo...not sure about aru vs. purito.

my very quick estimate (as a consequence of their climbing times and the individual BW) is that dumo is superior to purito and aru in terms of absolute watts around 8 to 12%, of course, being inferior in terms of watt per kg around 2%.

how much could that translate into the itt finishing times ?

... i reckon dumo, given the course flatness and his power could take over 2 minutes from either aru or purito with his projected average speed giving him finishing time of 48 +/- minutes.

the only question(s) for me is/are if aru can beat purito and if so, by how much. i rekon he will by about 30-40 seconds, despite me actually, wishing purito to win the overall...

 

[Winnen]

A dutch professor (Hans van Dijk) did some calculations based on results so far in the Vuelta. He starts from the idea that the W/Kg in the top 5 is not that different from each other since the differences were relatively small so far in the mountains. His results:

1. Dumoulin 71 Kg/436 watt/53.7 km/h / 43:14
2. Aru 62 Kg/381 watt/51.4 km/h / 45:11
3. Majka 62 Kg/381 watt/51.4 km/h / 45:11
4. Rodriguez 58Kg/356 watt/50.2 km/h / 46:15
5. Chavs 54Kg/331 watt/49.1 km/h / 47:17

Factors that will influence his results (according to him):
1 Fatigue
2 Mental strength
3 Using the same watt/kg for all 5 cyclists
4 Environmental conditions

Link: http://www.fiets.nl/2015/09/08/kan-tom-dumoulin-de-vuelta-nog-winnen/ (dutch)

 

[WillemS]

Re:

A dutch professor (Hans van Dijk)

Not debating his calculations, but it's probably important to mention that his scientific field of expertise is unrelated to cycling or sports science, as it's actually "drinking water".

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

If Rodriguez and Aru can manage to stay within 1min of Dumoulin in GC after today then it's going to be very interesting.

Yes, becouse tomorrow is a day to have a good team, and next 2 days similar.

Domoulin should put 4 minutes today to Purito and Aru

 

[Winnen]

Re: Re:

A dutch professor (Hans van Dijk)

Not debating his calculations, but it's probably important to mention that his scientific field of expertise is unrelated to cycling or sports science, as it's actually "drinking water".

I was not aware. Thank you. However he is more than just a hobbyist, he wrote a book about it (on running as well). I think of it as a nice indication.

 

[Flamin]

53,7km/h looks quite optimistic to me.