2015 Vuelta Stage 17 : Burgos - Burgos ITT 39 km

[DFA123]

Re:

A dutch professor (Hans van Dijk) did some calculations based on results so far in the Vuelta. He starts from the idea that the W/Kg in the top 5 is not that different from each other since the differences were relatively small so far in the mountains. His results:

1. Dumoulin 71 Kg/436 watt/53.7 km/h / 43:14
2. Aru 62 Kg/381 watt/51.4 km/h / 45:11
3. Majka 62 Kg/381 watt/51.4 km/h / 45:11
4. Rodriguez 58Kg/356 watt/50.2 km/h / 46:15
5. Chavs 54Kg/331 watt/49.1 km/h / 47:17

Factors that will influence his results (according to him):
1 Fatigue
2 Mental strength
3 Using the same watt/kg for all 5 cyclists
4 Environmental conditions

Link: http://www.fiets.nl/2015/09/08/kan-tom-dumoulin-de-vuelta-nog-winnen/ (dutch)

Pretty meaningless trying to calculate exact times like that. The most significant factor - apart from power - is aero drag; which he has barely mentioned. You can't just scale drag up and down depending on weight; some riders will have a naturally more aero shape or get in a bet position.

Then there is the question of being able to put out power in an aero position. Even for the best time triallists there is usually a loss of power, compared with what is possible to put out on a mountain. The course is also not completely flat so riders will be going over threshold at times, then recovering slightly on downhill sections. So it's not a question of putting out a steady 400+w.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

If Rodriguez and Aru can manage to stay within 1min of Dumoulin in GC after today then it's going to be very interesting.

Yes, becouse tomorrow is a day to have a good team, and next 2 days similar.

Domoulin should put 4 minutes today to Purito and Aru

6 seconds/km ??? That amount of gap was impossible even in Big Mig and Ulrich times..

 

[python]

Re:

53,7km/h looks quite optimistic to me.

on a pancake flat course with few turns and being fresh, i believe it would be a sound estimate for dumoulin. NOT so, given the 3d week and the profile. so, i'd call it an overestimate...

as i estimated in an earlier post, a 48 min finish looks more realistic with him gaining over 2 minutes on purito and aru even more doable. also, the shallow grade of the climbs favour a power rider like dumo.

 

[manafana]

Kiriyenka going for this as Sky target 3 men going full gas for the team comp.

 

[Carols]

The big day is here . Did Purito get the right combo of rest, riding and mental motivation to put in a great ITT? I hope so. It would be awesome if he is only 20 or so seconds behind after today. I'd love to see him take down this Vuelta. There is plenty of time for Dumoulin and Aru to win GTs in the future. Puritos' time is drawing to a close, go get it!!!!

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

53,7km/h looks quite optimistic to me.

on a pancake flat course with few turns and being fresh, i believe it would be a sound estimate for dumoulin. NOT so, given the 3d week and the profile. so, i'd call it an overestimate...

as i estimated in an earlier post, a 48 min finish looks more realistic with him gaining over 2 minutes on purito and aru even more doable. also, the shallow grade of the climbs favour a power rider like dumo.

Yes, of course, I mean it's optimistic on this course.

But I expect faster than 48 min as well.

 

[StannisBaratheon]

The red priestess told me Dumoulin will be about 1:30 minutes above Purito and >1 minute over Aru after today

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

A dutch professor (Hans van Dijk) did some calculations based on results so far in the Vuelta. He starts from the idea that the W/Kg in the top 5 is not that different from each other since the differences were relatively small so far in the mountains. His results:

1. Dumoulin 71 Kg/436 watt/53.7 km/h / 43:14
2. Aru 62 Kg/381 watt/51.4 km/h / 45:11
3. Majka 62 Kg/381 watt/51.4 km/h / 45:11
4. Rodriguez 58Kg/356 watt/50.2 km/h / 46:15
5. Chavs 54Kg/331 watt/49.1 km/h / 47:17

Factors that will influence his results (according to him):
1 Fatigue
2 Mental strength
3 Using the same watt/kg for all 5 cyclists
4 Environmental conditions

Link: http://www.fiets.nl/2015/09/08/kan-tom-dumoulin-de-vuelta-nog-winnen/ (dutch)

I'm very confident this will not be the outcome.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

A dutch professor (Hans van Dijk) did some calculations based on results so far in the Vuelta. He starts from the idea that the W/Kg in the top 5 is not that different from each other since the differences were relatively small so far in the mountains. His results:

1. Dumoulin 71 Kg/436 watt/53.7 km/h / 43:14
2. Aru 62 Kg/381 watt/51.4 km/h / 45:11
3. Majka 62 Kg/381 watt/51.4 km/h / 45:11
4. Rodriguez 58Kg/356 watt/50.2 km/h / 46:15
5. Chavs 54Kg/331 watt/49.1 km/h / 47:17

Factors that will influence his results (according to him):
1 Fatigue
2 Mental strength
3 Using the same watt/kg for all 5 cyclists
4 Environmental conditions

Link: http://www.fiets.nl/2015/09/08/kan-tom-dumoulin-de-vuelta-nog-winnen/ (dutch)

I'm very confident this will not be the outcome.

Lol, that calculation is hilarious

 

[Jakub]

Great, Bodnar first. I believe he's gonna win

 

[hrotha]

Re:

Factors that will influence his results (according to him):
1 Fatigue
2 Mental strength
3 Using the same watt/kg for all 5 cyclists
4 Environmental conditions

It would seem the only factor he's taking into account is weight though.

Or, well, total watts. But due to the method he used it's effectively the same thing.

 

[BlackWhiteEagle]

Kiriyenka ftw today. Dumoulin to win the Vuelta. Aru, JRod and Majka will be close and battle it out for the 2nd place.

 

[TommyGun]

Does anybody know the link for a nice live time tracker? I remember Sky had a nice one during the Giro.

 

[Beech Mtn]

Re:

The big day is here . Did Purito get the right combo of rest, riding and mental motivation to put in a great ITT? I hope so. It would be awesome if he is only 20 or so seconds behind after today. I'd love to see him take down this Vuelta. There is plenty of time for Dumoulin and Aru to win GTs in the future. Puritos' time is drawing to a close, go get it!!!!

Take it to the Clinic, Carol

 

[TommyGun]

Re: Re:

Factors that will influence his results (according to him):
1 Fatigue
2 Mental strength
3 Using the same watt/kg for all 5 cyclists
4 Environmental conditions

It would seem the only factor he's taking into account is weight though.

Or, well, total watts. But due to the method he used it's effectively the same thing.

Yep, really lame for a "professor"

 

[70kmph]

http://irumble.com/vuelta/ Live tracker with split times

 

[zombo10]

Re:

Does anybody know the link for a nice live time tracker? I remember Sky had a nice one during the Giro.

=> http://www.lavuelta.com/la-vuelta/2015/us/live/aso/

 

[TommyGun]

Cheers!

 

[SafeBet]

Monster time by Bodnar 47'05"!

 

[BlackWhiteEagle]

Re:

Monster time by Bodnar 47'05"!

YEAH, go Wrocław!

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

Monster time by Bodnar 47'05"!

At Chaves level according to that Dutch professor

 

[nuvolablu]

1.BODNAR M. TCS in 47' 05'' 49.32 km/h
2.BAGDONAS G. ALM in 49' 22'' at 2' 17'' 47.04 km/h
3.HOWSON D. OGE in 49' 32'' at 2' 27'' 46.88 km/h

 

[Carols]

Re: Re:

The big day is here . Did Purito get the right combo of rest, riding and mental motivation to put in a great ITT? I hope so. It would be awesome if he is only 20 or so seconds behind after today. I'd love to see him take down this Vuelta. There is plenty of time for Dumoulin and Aru to win GTs in the future. Puritos' time is drawing to a close, go get it!!!!

Take it to the Clinic, Carol

LOL absolutely nothing clinic related! Purito has been known to be blocked post rest day so I hope he did it right this time.

 

[Billie]

how is the wind?

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

how is the wind?

18km/h blowing from SW with gusts up to 36km/h. Not foreseen to change during the stage
http://en.eltiempo.es/burgos.html?v=por_hora