2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km MTT

[lemon cheese cake]

The third and final ITT of the race:

STAGE 15: Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km MTT

Stage start: 13.20 CET, 22 May

Technical Overview:
After two very demanding mountain stages, a MTT. Really, really bad idea.
At least, it is not very hard in itself. Less than 11 km long (the proper climb being only 9km) and without crazy gradients, it shouldn't be a big problem for the riders.
Starting from the village of Castelrotto, already halfway the proper climb of Siusi, each rider will have 1.8 km of ascending false flat before motoring up the hill. The climbing section measures 9 km at 8.3% average, featuring very constant ramps, that start fairly easy for the first 2 km and then become 9% all the way up until the easier final km. There is a pretty odd checkpoint at the 4.4 mark, which basically comprises the flat section and the first easy slopes. It could be only one third of the total time, which makes it almost useless to give a real indication of what is going on.

The Climbs:
Well... only one today, as you would expect.

Alpe di Siusi GPM1
This climb is much bigger than the version they'll climb this year. The whole climb to Alpe di Siusi can be done from two sides, which share exactly the final 9 km stretch that will be ridden. The side from Prato all'Isarco is the only one ever ridden in the Giro, featured as MTF in the 2009 edition. It measures roughly 25 km at 6%, with a pretty long flat middle section. However, the other side, from Ponte Gardena, is much more challenging, with 16 km at 8.5%.

What to expect:
It is a MTT, meaning everybody will give it their all, no question. Gaps should be decent but nothing out of this world. Winner in under 25'.

 

[dacooley]

I expect minimal gaps between the major contenders. nibs, stivi and chavito to finish within 15 seconds or so. krujswijk's win would be probably the best option for gc action in the last week.

 

[Valv.Piti]

My brain tells me Nibali, my heart Valverde. So Im going with Valverde pulling an upset here!

 

[Arredondo]

1. Nibali
2. Chavito + 10
3. Kruijswijk + 15
4. Zakarin + 38
5. Majka + 44

Valverde will lose around a minute

 

[Red Rick]

Hard one. Giro MTTs in the last years have varied a lot. But then in 2013 and 2014 the disparity in climbing was a lot bigger. When climbing level was even the gaps have been pretty small on harder climbs. Kronplatz had small gaps.

In 2011, #2 to #10 in the MTT were seperated by 30s in total. Contador, who was the bests climber all race, won by more than 30s. That MTT had 3km more flat and 200m less in altitude gain, and the 2 days before they were throwing with minutes on Gardechia.

 

[Forever The Best]

1Nibali
2Kruiswijk 3''
3Chavez 10''
4Zakarin 25''
5Valverde 33''

 

[DNP-Old]

Think Nibali will take this, though Chaves and Kruijswijk have shown to be the better climbers.

 

[liamito]

Is there any reference for Chaves regarding MTTs?

 

[DNP-Old]

Re:

Is there any reference for Chaves regarding MTTs?

Only did one once before, in 2012 Vuelta a Colombia on alto de Las Palmas. 59th. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zOg8dQusU4s/UdOdh_R4QlI/AAAAAAAACIQ/D72M-QtN_sk/s912/LAS+PALMAS+por+Medell%C3%ADn.jpg

 

[SeriousSam]

You don't need special skills to do well in MTTs, other than knowing how to do an evenly paced effort.

Strongest climber wins. Those that do badly aren't climbing well.

Tipping Nibali. He wasn't much weaker than Chavez and Crushweak today, we know he has good recovery, he knows how to ride TTs.

 

[Matteo.]

Re:

You don't need special skills to do well in MTTs, other than knowing how to do an evenly paced effort

Strongest climber wins. Those that do badly aren't climbing well.

Tipping Nibali. He wasn't much weaker than Chavez and Crushweak today, we know he has good recovery, he knows how to ride TTs.

Meh , it's not a trivial matter...it's a fundamental aspect to do good time trials

 

[Climbing]

I think Nibali will take the stage, gaps might not be big, but order of 30 secs are possible.

Nibali payed the red, but didn't climb worse then K+C, actually recovered time after the first moments.
Still wide open.

 

[Ataraxus]

I'm surprised so many people (till now) predict Nibali to take the stage. Krujswijk is as good as Nibali in pacing himself in the flat. He is better than Nibali in pacing himself in 8km
climbs at 8%. And has shown better climbing performance so far.
Cold blooded predictions converge to S.K IMO

 

[Red Rick]

Nibali paced himself really well after initially cracking today. He attacked before the flattest part of the climb, and then pushed really hard to try and distance Valverde. The fight is still open.

 

[Kwibus]

I think Garzelli won one in his last years when he wasn't playing a role high in GC anymore.

So Valverde might as well win if he feels good. Normally the favourites shouldn't be too far from eachother.
Hoping for Kruiswijk to win, but I don't think he will. Top 10 ofcourse.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re:

I think Nibali will take the stage, gaps might not be big, but order of 30 secs are possible.

Nibali payed the red, but didn't climb worse then K+C, actually recovered time after the first moments.
Still wide open.

The fact remains that he climbed worse. 30 seconds in a climb as easy as half of Valparola is really translated as worse.
One can speculate that Nibali tired himself into droppimg Valverde and paid in the final part of the climb
But one can also speculate that S.K. didn't climb at his max. Instead he waited for Chaves to exploit alliances in the forthcoming flat part.

 

[Mr.White]

Recovery will play major part. Tomorrow's winner is probably going to win the whole race

 

[Jspear]

1. Chaves,

rest doesn't matter.

 

[May0maniac]

The Gaps between the top guys should be pretty small, but I fear that someone like Amador who suffered a lot today and was already dropped yesterday could loose a decent amount of time.

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Recovery will play major part. Tomorrow's winner is probably going to win the whole race

So if Valverde is going to win tomorrow, he will win the Giro?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

You don't need special skills to do well in MTTs, other than knowing how to do an evenly paced effort

Strongest climber wins. Those that do badly aren't climbing well.

Tipping Nibali. He wasn't much weaker than Chavez and Crushweak today, we know he has good recovery, he knows how to ride TTs.

Meh , it's not a trivial matter...it's a fundamental aspect to do good time trials

The good thing with pure MTT's with reasonably irregular grades is that power meters can only help you so much - unlike on a pan flat TT when they dictate everthing.

Riders will still have to make decisions like how much over threshold to go on the steepest sections, and where the best places are to ease off and snatch a bit of recovery. A truly even-powered effort would lose time to someone riding more tactically.

 

[Red Rick]

This MTT is pretty regular. Those first 2 km of flat are somewhat trivial I think.

What winning time do we expect? 27 minutes or thereabouts? Is the time limit gonna be an issue?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

This MTT is pretty regular. Those first 2 km of flat are somewhat trivial I think.

What winning time do we expect? 27 minutes or thereabouts? Is the time limit gonna be an issue?

Eshnar predicts about 25 in the preview
I think time differences will be bigger than people might expect after such a hard day yesterday and this climb is no joke.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

This MTT is pretty regular. Those first 2 km of flat are somewhat trivial I think.

What winning time do we expect? 27 minutes or thereabouts? Is the time limit gonna be an issue?

It's not all that regular. Well, in terms of the average gradient for each km it is, but that doesn't tell the whole story - there are a lot of varations within it. There are 10 hairpin bends for a start which always offer a range of tactical options - whether to accelerate through the steep inside or maintain a rhythm by going wider - and also quite a few change of gradient from 6% to 10% and back down. Tactics and pacing will definitely have a part to play.

I think it's slightly more suitable to agile, lighter climbers more than the grinders. Like a short Alpe d'Huez.

 

[DBotero]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

I hope Kruijswijk will get this one.Zakarin maybe we'll have better luck this time and improve his GC position.