2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km MTT

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

Astana need to put their good all-rounders who are not all that high on the GC in the BotD on the Risoul stage. If they can get away with it, Kangert and Zeits, Scarponi too if possible. There will be plenty of stagehunters there, and they can bank on other teams putting some key names up there especially with the Cima Coppi as a prize. On the lower slopes of Agnello I expect a counterattack to form, Fuglsang should try to get into it (plus Scarponi if he couldn't get into the BotD) as long as he is still close enough that LottoNL need to chase. This counterattack should be relatively strong so apart from the absolute best climbers in the BotD group (I'm thinking people like Cunego but also you might have some other strong climbers in a relatively good GC that will make Lotto chase, or stagehunting climbers like Nieve, Urán, Pozzovivo now their GCs are irrelevant) they ought to be able to catch much of the other group as the climb continues, which should reduce the maglia rosa group to a pretty select size. Nibali should then attack really close to the summit of the Agnello as long as he has even reasonable legs, so as to give himself the chance to have just a handful of seconds (that's all he'll need) on Kruijswijk at the summit, ideally Kruijswijk should have to leave his remaining domestiques to chase or risk letting Nibali get further ahead to keep some teammates for later. Once the descent is on, it's time for the Shark to go to work. Nibali has serious cojones when descending, and he'll need them. At the base of the descent he will need to have pulled some time out on the Dutchman, and he should find Kangert and Zeits standing by their bikes waiting for him. When he arrives, they will pull him through the false flat and up to the lead group so that at the base of the Risoul climb they can deposit him in the capable hands of Fuglsang and Scarponi (Kangert can even probably pull some way up the climb if needed), whereas Kruijswijk will either have had to delay to have teammates to try to pull for him in the valley or be isolated and trying to enlist help from the likes of Valverde and Chaves, who are not going to be the most help on the flat because they will need to save energy for the climb as well. Fuggles and Boots can carry Nibali most of the way to Risoul (Fuggles is the stronger rider, but for historical symmetry Scarponi should be the last man). The weather should get progressively worse until at the summit it's tipping it down with rain, it's dark, it's gloomy, it's horrible. Nibbles should then ride away from his teammates and take the stage and the jersey with Kruijswijk trailing in alone five minutes back.

For additional symmetry, since he's The Shark, Nibali should get a special jersey commissioned with fish on it.

Great write up

The funny thing is, it doesn't sound unfeasible....when you put it the way you put it.

Would you advise Astana to hold back entirely on stages 16 and 18, and bank it all on stage 19 (and 20 if need be)?

I think that we are poised for potentially a dramatic finish to the race. SK being over two minutes ahead is a great scenario. Sure he's strong, but he's never won a GT, and the others have to attack. Should be fun.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

It's a fun situtation. Movistar will have lots of guys to send out too although they don't have as many strong riders as the Astanas. Kruiswijk probably has more race intelligence than someone like Evans for example. If he's still clearly better uphill he should attack himself and improvise.

Hmm, I never reallyt followed what Evens was up to - what is this referring to=?

Thought about the tdf 2008 when Evans simply had to time trial after Sastre to the summit of Alpe d'Huez but instead got distracted by other riders. I think Kruiswijk understands that he must stay with Nibali first of all.

Must say that Evans really took a lesson from that episode. 3 years later on Galibier he employed the right tactics

 

[doperhopper]

Re: Re:

Astana need to put their good all-rounders who are not all that high on the GC in the BotD on the Risoul stage. If they can get away with it, Kangert and Zeits, Scarponi too if possible. There will be plenty of stagehunters there, and they can bank on other teams putting some key names up there especially with the Cima Coppi as a prize. On the lower slopes of Agnello I expect a counterattack to form, Fuglsang should try to get into it (plus Scarponi if he couldn't get into the BotD) as long as he is still close enough that LottoNL need to chase. This counterattack should be relatively strong so apart from the absolute best climbers in the BotD group (I'm thinking people like Cunego but also you might have some other strong climbers in a relatively good GC that will make Lotto chase, or stagehunting climbers like Nieve, Urán, Pozzovivo now their GCs are irrelevant) they ought to be able to catch much of the other group as the climb continues, which should reduce the maglia rosa group to a pretty select size. Nibali should then attack really close to the summit of the Agnello as long as he has even reasonable legs, so as to give himself the chance to have just a handful of seconds (that's all he'll need) on Kruijswijk at the summit, ideally Kruijswijk should have to leave his remaining domestiques to chase or risk letting Nibali get further ahead to keep some teammates for later. Once the descent is on, it's time for the Shark to go to work. Nibali has serious cojones when descending, and he'll need them. At the base of the descent he will need to have pulled some time out on the Dutchman, and he should find Kangert and Zeits standing by their bikes waiting for him. When he arrives, they will pull him through the false flat and up to the lead group so that at the base of the Risoul climb they can deposit him in the capable hands of Fuglsang and Scarponi (Kangert can even probably pull some way up the climb if needed), whereas Kruijswijk will either have had to delay to have teammates to try to pull for him in the valley or be isolated and trying to enlist help from the likes of Valverde and Chaves, who are not going to be the most help on the flat because they will need to save energy for the climb as well. Fuggles and Boots can carry Nibali most of the way to Risoul (Fuggles is the stronger rider, but for historical symmetry Scarponi should be the last man). The weather should get progressively worse until at the summit it's tipping it down with rain, it's dark, it's gloomy, it's horrible. Nibbles should then ride away from his teammates and take the stage and the jersey with Kruijswijk trailing in alone five minutes back.

For additional symmetry, since he's The Shark, Nibali should get a special jersey commissioned with fish on it.

Great write up

The funny thing is, it doesn't sound unfeasible....when you put it the way you put it.

Would you advise Astana to hold back entirely on stages 16 and 18, and bank it all on stage 19 (and 20 if need be)?

I think that we are poised for potentially a dramatic finish to the race. SK being over two minutes ahead is a great scenario. Sure he's strong, but he's never won a GT, and the others have to attack. Should be fun.

At least Nibs does not need Francesco Moser to come to their bus and persuade them to attack (as was allegedly the case the evening before Scheck's famous Izoard-Galibier stunt). Let's hope Sharks do not race for podium places (like the Piti's of this world).