2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km MTT

[Hakkapelit]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

So, 6 more stages, 2 flat, one very interesting medium mountain stage and 3 mountain stages.

Tuesday probably not as important as the other two since the final climb just isnt super hard, the Pinerolo stage could be great but the advantage for Kruijswijk is that there is only one climb so it will only be about strength and Nibali can't use his team as effectively as in the other stages, stage 19 is a mtf so actually advantage Kruijswijk again, but considering the situation in the gc right now I can even imagine that something will happen on the Agnello and then stage 20 should be one big firework (except Kruijswijk gains another two minutes on everyone else until then, then there will only be fights for the podium)

Those stages are easy for LottoJumbo, just send as many in the break as you can. Especially the stage to Risoul. They can control that until the Agnel with the flat road domestiques. What happens on Col de Vars will be crucial

Those big guys will be worthless up the road in the high mountains. IMO.

Battaglin and Roglic should be the ones up the road in that stage. Tjallingi, Tankink and the likes can control things until they hit the foot of the Agnello

Not that I have seen any of it but reports say Castelijns has performed above par climbingwise also.

 

[spinyl]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

So, two guys with very minimal palmares on the same Russian team finish fist and fifth in an uphill TT. That's not suspicious. "Mechanical doping" goes mainstream in the Giro.

Foliforov is neopro with great performances in u23 mountains, Firsanov has been quality for years and years. By comparison Kruiswijk's palmares at this point last year was like a slightly better Francis de Greef.

Very unfair on Kruijswijk. His problem is that his biggest strength is recovery and he rides himself into form, so he's not at his best in short stage races unless he can back them into one another, because they're not long enough for others' form to fall by the wayside and him to take advantage. He was much better in the 2011 Giro than his eventual result let on, when Contador did his little exploratory move on the Fedaia it was Kruijswijk who went with him, for example.

So maybe more like Wim van Huffel? Kruiswijk was much better in last year's Giro compared to before.

Kruiswijk had great palmares early in his career. Then, he suffered a blockage of his femoral artery, and his performance declined. He had surgery to repair that last year, and now he's on the way back. Firsanov has never even been close. As for Gazprom, no need to say what everybody's thinking (and risk getting banned like the guy who started this thread).

 

[ice&fire]

This discussion about Astana vs LottoNL team strength is pointless. If Kruijswijk has the legs he can only be defeated by coordinated attacks by all other contenders, not by the number and the pace of someone's teammates.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

So, 6 more stages, 2 flat, one very interesting medium mountain stage and 3 mountain stages.

Tuesday probably not as important as the other two since the final climb just isnt super hard, the Pinerolo stage could be great but the advantage for Kruijswijk is that there is only one climb so it will only be about strength and Nibali can't use his team as effectively as in the other stages, stage 19 is a mtf so actually advantage Kruijswijk again, but considering the situation in the gc right now I can even imagine that something will happen on the Agnello and then stage 20 should be one big firework (except Kruijswijk gains another two minutes on everyone else until then, then there will only be fights for the podium)

Those stages are easy for LottoJumbo, just send as many in the break as you can. Especially the stage to Risoul. They can control that until the Agnel with the flat road domestiques. What happens on Col de Vars will be crucial

But the problem Kruijswijk has is the quality of his domestiques. Let's say Nibali attacks early on the Agnello, Kruijswijk follows and both have 2 or 3 domestiques in the break who now come back to their leaders. Nibali's two domestiques will probably be so strong that as soon as they set the pace, Kruijswijk's teammates drop again and he is isolated anyway.

They shouldn't control the breakaway to be brought back before the top of the climb. Anyway, that's what I hope for

 

[dacooley]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

So, 6 more stages, 2 flat, one very interesting medium mountain stage and 3 mountain stages.

Tuesday probably not as important as the other two since the final climb just isnt super hard, the Pinerolo stage could be great but the advantage for Kruijswijk is that there is only one climb so it will only be about strength and Nibali can't use his team as effectively as in the other stages, stage 19 is a mtf so actually advantage Kruijswijk again, but considering the situation in the gc right now I can even imagine that something will happen on the Agnello and then stage 20 should be one big firework (except Kruijswijk gains another two minutes on everyone else until then, then there will only be fights for the podium)

Those stages are easy for LottoJumbo, just send as many in the break as you can. Especially the stage to Risoul. They can control that until the Agnel with the flat road domestiques. What happens on Col de Vars will be crucial

But the problem Kruijswijk has is the quality of his domestiques. Let's say Nibali attacks early on the Agnello, Kruijswijk follows and both have 2 or 3 domestiques in the break who now come back to their leaders. Nibali's two domestiques will probably be so strong that as soon as they set the pace, Kruijswijk's teammates drop again and he is isolated anyway.

nibs in his current shape seems to be physically unable to distance kruijswijk even for 5 meters. as soon as he makes his move, the dutch will immediately stick to his wheel. things can change after the rest day though

 

[DFA123]

Re:

This discussion about Astana vs LottoNL team strength is pointless. If Kruijswijk has the legs he can only be defeated by coordinated attacks by all other contenders, not by the number and the pace of someone's teammates.

It's a big if, that he will have the legs at every moment during the last week. If he has the legs, he follows everything, attacks to gain a few seconds at times and wins comfortably

If he doesn't have the legs at any point, which is more than likely, that is where the team is crucial. Even Contador was put in difficulty by Astana at points last year. Nibali can use his team to up the pace and test Kruijswijk when he himself is feeling good, or he can use his team to change the tempo to unsettle him like Armstrong used to do to Ullrich in the mountains.

And when Nibali or Valverde are having bad moments, it's much harder for Kruijswijk to take advantage and stretch his lead - as he would have to be in the wind for much longer himself.

The discussion about team strength isn't pointless - it iss most definitely a factor that will make it harder for Kruijswijk to hold onto the MR.

 

[Laplaz]

The doms of Krus can't be shittier than Contador's last year

 

[Ataraxus]

I Don't believe what Slongo says. In Trentino he used to blame the drastic altitude change from the camp to the trentino stages.
Now he's blaming the underpreparation that Nibali has had with the aim for the double.
Believing Slongo these days is the same as believing Contador had his best ever numbers prior to the dauphine in 2013.

 

[cineteq]

Re:

How so? 2 fresh and young riders leading the Giro is nothing but good news!

This is a bad day for cycling.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Urán has bronchitis apparently

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

How so? 2 fresh and young riders leading the Giro is nothing but good news!

This is a bad day for cycling.

I think he meant something else. More into the stage top performers. Cannot be more specific because I could get grilled for it.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Urán has bronchitis apparently

I don't want to be mean with Uran but he always come up with excuses everytime he underperforms.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Astana need to put their good all-rounders who are not all that high on the GC in the BotD on the Risoul stage. If they can get away with it, Kangert and Zeits, Scarponi too if possible. There will be plenty of stagehunters there, and they can bank on other teams putting some key names up there especially with the Cima Coppi as a prize. On the lower slopes of Agnello I expect a counterattack to form, Fuglsang should try to get into it (plus Scarponi if he couldn't get into the BotD) as long as he is still close enough that LottoNL need to chase. This counterattack should be relatively strong so apart from the absolute best climbers in the BotD group (I'm thinking people like Cunego but also you might have some other strong climbers in a relatively good GC that will make Lotto chase, or stagehunting climbers like Nieve, Urán, Pozzovivo now their GCs are irrelevant) they ought to be able to catch much of the other group as the climb continues, which should reduce the maglia rosa group to a pretty select size. Nibali should then attack really close to the summit of the Agnello as long as he has even reasonable legs, so as to give himself the chance to have just a handful of seconds (that's all he'll need) on Kruijswijk at the summit, ideally Kruijswijk should have to leave his remaining domestiques to chase or risk letting Nibali get further ahead to keep some teammates for later. Once the descent is on, it's time for the Shark to go to work. Nibali has serious cojones when descending, and he'll need them. At the base of the descent he will need to have pulled some time out on the Dutchman, and he should find Kangert and Zeits standing by their bikes waiting for him. When he arrives, they will pull him through the false flat and up to the lead group so that at the base of the Risoul climb they can deposit him in the capable hands of Fuglsang and Scarponi (Kangert can even probably pull some way up the climb if needed), whereas Kruijswijk will either have had to delay to have teammates to try to pull for him in the valley or be isolated and trying to enlist help from the likes of Valverde and Chaves, who are not going to be the most help on the flat because they will need to save energy for the climb as well. Fuggles and Boots can carry Nibali most of the way to Risoul (Fuggles is the stronger rider, but for historical symmetry Scarponi should be the last man). The weather should get progressively worse until at the summit it's tipping it down with rain, it's dark, it's gloomy, it's horrible. Nibbles should then ride away from his teammates and take the stage and the jersey with Kruijswijk trailing in alone five minutes back.

For additional symmetry, since he's The Shark, Nibali should get a special jersey commissioned with fish on it.

 

[phil-i-am]

Re:

This discussion about Astana vs LottoNL team strength is pointless. If Kruijswijk has the legs he can only be defeated by coordinated attacks by all other contenders, not by the number and the pace of someone's teammates.

What about shark's downhill attack on Agnello with 2 or 3 Astanas up the road? What about mechanical (Kruijsvijk is dutch afterall, they usually don't seem to have a luck on their side ) ? What about sending Fuglsang for long range attack with 2 AST riders in breakaway?
Lotto-Jumbo seems to be really weak when road goes uphill. Only guy who seems to be in good shape and capable of pulling hard is Battaglin. Roglic is weird case, I expected him to fly in mountains, while he's dropping like a stone after extraordinary flat ITT performances.

If Nibali has good legs is saturday and sunday it'll be hell. Hopefully Valverde can join him in some crazy long range attack.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I think the Astana team strength thing is overrated.

Dumoulin had no team in the Vuelta, but was also, on paper, the worst climbing specialist of the top 10. So it was logical to keep trying until he breaks.
But Kruijswijk is different, he is the best rider in the race. So it's gonna be much much harder to pull off the same trick. Especially when you know Kruijswijk's 3rd week is his best, because he has barely any decline in performance.

 

[Red Rick]

Hell, even Tuesdays first climb should be hard enough to isolate Kruijswijk. Descent doesn't look steep enough bet if they then take turns attacking Kruijswijk he's looking at problems.

 

[ciranda]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

It's a fun situtation. Movistar will have lots of guys to send out too although they don't have as many strong riders as the Astanas. Kruiswijk probably has more race intelligence than someone like Evans for example. If he's still clearly better uphill he should attack himself and improvise.

 

[Arsimo]

Lotto Jumbo will refresh the relationships with old friends among the teams in the Giro tomorrow. Exchanging old and future favors. And I cannot blame them.

 

[Anderis]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

Foliforov is neopro with great performances in u23 mountains, Firsanov has been quality for years and years. By comparison Kruiswijk's palmares at this point last year was like a slightly better Francis de Greef.

Yeah, because finishing 8th in the Giro and 3rd in Tour de Suisse at the age of 23 is just slightly better than anything what de Greef has accomplished throughout his career.

 

[Hakkapelit]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

It's a fun situtation. Movistar will have lots of guys to send out too although they don't have as many strong riders as the Astanas. Kruiswijk probably has more race intelligence than someone like Evans for example. If he's still clearly better uphill he should attack himself and improvise.

Hmm, I never reallyt followed what Evens was up to - what is this referring to=?

 

[dacooley]

Re:

Hell, even Tuesdays first climb should be hard enough to isolate Kruijswijk. Descent doesn't look steep enough bet if they then take turns attacking Kruijswijk he's looking at problems.

0,5% to succeed.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Hell, even Tuesdays first climb should be hard enough to isolate Kruijswijk. Descent doesn't look steep enough bet if they then take turns attacking Kruijswijk he's looking at problems.

Absolutely, Mendelpass is close to be HC material (although 1st category would definitely be more accurate) and in any other race both big climbs would at least be 1st category. It's complete nonsense to rate this stage with only three stars, because this is a proper mountain stage with hardly any flat after the first ascent starts. It will be very difficult for Nibali to gain time there, but its at least a realistic scenario that Kruijswijk is isolated for over 70 kilometers.

 

[Tank Engine]

Kruijswijk looked really strong today. If he had a stronger team, I would say that he was a sure bet. Movistar and Astana will be sending guys up the road and Kruijswijk will be isolated, so he'll have to ride with his head as well as his legs. One good thing for him is that no team has two real GC threats and it's likely that he'll gain from the rivalry between the other teams.

 

[ciranda]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

It's a fun situtation. Movistar will have lots of guys to send out too although they don't have as many strong riders as the Astanas. Kruiswijk probably has more race intelligence than someone like Evans for example. If he's still clearly better uphill he should attack himself and improvise.

Hmm, I never reallyt followed what Evens was up to - what is this referring to=?

Thought about the tdf 2008 when Evans simply had to time trial after Sastre to the summit of Alpe d'Huez but instead got distracted by other riders. I think Kruiswijk understands that he must stay with Nibali first of all.

 

[cineteq]

Re: Re:

Oh he was referring to those "bad days of cycling", gotcha!

How so? 2 fresh and young riders leading the Giro is nothing but good news!

This is a bad day for cycling.

I think he meant something else. More into the stage top performers. Cannot be more specific because I could get grilled for it.