2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km MTT

[ice&fire]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

Gazprom should be expelled from Giro.

It was a bad idea to invite them from the start. The excluded italian team or Caja Rural would have been better.

Why? They've just won a big stage. Cycling is clearly growing in Russia right now and its good to give talented riders the opportunity.

We've already seen cycling growth in the USA and the UK

 

[Arredondo]

Nibali was also really poor in Trentino and Liege. It was already a sign. Only Oman this year was decent, but the whole year he's not at the level of 2013/2014.

 

[Guybrush]

lots of people are upset about the results, but after yesterday brutal stage this MTT was all about freshnes

 

[classicomano]

Wow at that second part.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

This is hilarious. Nibali what the **** were you doing?

He still has a chance to win it, let's just hope the cycling gods won't give him another break with a kruiswijk crash but i've a feeling something bad is gonna happen to kruiswijk. Hope i'm wrong

Right now he either has to get a Basso-illness or an aseroid hits the earth if they want to beat him. He's just so much better than the rest right now?

Well, he doesn't have the best team as Roglic is crashing every other day and the other climber in the team is Battaglin...

Team won't win the race instead of its leader. Call me a rider who could distance Kruijswijk in the mountains...

But let Astana send a few riders into the break and let Nibali attack on the Bonette on stage 20 and Kruijswijk has to rely on his team because riding isolated for 80 kilometers maybe also isnt the best idea. Of course he now is the outstanding favorite, but the situation isnt as clear as it would be if Nibali or Valverde would be in his situation.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

dumoulin same time as roglic in prologue,now kruiswijk...lotto jumbo have no luck at all

What do you mean by luck? This has nothing to do with luck. Besides they are winning the Giro.

What? Losing a time trial by fractions of a second has nothing to do with bad luck?

Where does the luck part come in? Foliforov was faster, end of story. It has nothing to do with luck.

The time it takes to complete a time trial is affected by environmental variables like wind, temperature, fan behaviour and so on. The effect of those variables can easily amount to a second, thus one and the same rider performance can lead to losing a close time trial or winning it, with the environmental variables making the difference.

We call it bad luck when you're hit by lightning because it's an environmental variable you cannot control.

So which of these environmental variables made Kruijswijk lose the ITT today?

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

The Gazprom guys. LOL. Congratulations anyway.

Wasn't Firsanov slowed down?

Yes Tinkoff car blocking the road at a very crowded spot

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Prety much as expected than except Foliforov

Chaves and Kruijswijk closely matched. Chaves has to go berserk now

 

[MikeTichondrius]

Kruijswijk just too strong. I always rated him like a VDB, Evans or Menchov sort but he's on a serious roll here. He just needs to defend. But it's just not a done deal yet. 2 mins is a lot but if he bonks just one day...

Extra points for Vino in the ES coverage. Still looks like he's about to attack.

 

[Andro]

Re:

lots of people are upset about the results, but after yesterday brutal stage this MTT was all about freshnes

Shh, don't interrupt the anti-Russia circlejerk with logic like that. The forum is busy pretending all Russians are doping while everybody from Western Europe are sparkling clean.

 

[rehy90]

So I guess only the Gazprom riders saved their legs yesterday...

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Quite frankly -Kruijswijk has just enough buffer to carry the maglia rosa all the way to Turin-barring of course either a bad day or an accident. He's climbing superbly matching Chaves & much better than Nibs....... We'll see how he behaves in the last wee- which looks exciting !!

Basically, you are right. He just has to be very attentive because of the weak team. He has no room for errors. He needs to tie a rope to the back of Nibali.

 

[saganftw]

its not a surprise to see so many ppl mad about the backlash foliforov gets on this forum...when roglic almost won and then won a TT there was very little if any talk about wink wink stuff

i wonder what would happen if his name was alexandre folifouroff riding for a good ol french team

 

[snccdcno]

Re:

Recovery will play major part. Tomorrow's winner is probably going to win the whole race

Lets hope so!

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

This is hilarious. Nibali what the **** were you doing?

He still has a chance to win it, let's just hope the cycling gods won't give him another break with a kruiswijk crash but i've a feeling something bad is gonna happen to kruiswijk. Hope i'm wrong

Right now he either has to get a Basso-illness or an aseroid hits the earth if they want to beat him. He's just so much better than the rest right now?

Well, he doesn't have the best team as Roglic is crashing every other day and the other climber in the team is Battaglin...

Team won't win the race instead of its leader. Call me a rider who could distance Kruijswijk in the mountains...

But let Astana send a few riders into the break and let Nibali attack on the Bonette on stage 20 and Kruijswijk has to rely on his team because riding isolated for 80 kilometers maybe also isnt the best idea. Of course he now is the outstanding favorite, but the situation isnt as clear as it would be if Nibali or Valverde would be in his situation.

yes, but beating kruijswijk will be waaaaaay harder than say beating dimoulin in the last year's vuelta as he's looking in climbing league of his own in the race so far.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

It's amazing how salty people get whenever a Russian rider wins something. Dry your eyes, please.

Please don't begin with nationalism/patriotism.

You are the absolute LAST person on this forum (now that Auscyclefan94 doesn't frequent it anymore) that should be saying that.

I don't think so, so far I haven't recognized which country is Kokoso from!

Unrecognizeable

 

[Lexman]

Re: Re:

Quite frankly -Kruijswijk has just enough buffer to carry the maglia rosa all the way to Turin-barring of course either a bad day or an accident. He's climbing superbly matching Chaves & much better than Nibs....... We'll see how he behaves in the last wee- which looks exciting !!

Basically, you are right. He just has to be very attentive because of the weak team. He has no room for errors. He needs to tie a rope to the back of Nibali.

I don't think Kruijswijk has it in the bag, he 's in very nice position, but that was Contadors as well and then came that famous stage where he almost lost it, one bad day is all that's needed.

Kruiswijks advantage is not extremely big neither...

 

[Escarabajo]

The only instances where Kruijswijk will need his team is if Nibali and Chaves attack consecutively.

Note: Gosh, I have to always go and do copy-paste for that complicated last name.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

It's amazing how salty people get whenever a Russian rider wins something. Dry your eyes, please.

Please don't begin with nationalism/patriotism.

You are the absolute LAST person on this forum (now that Auscyclefan94 doesn't frequent it anymore) that should be saying that.

I don't think so, so far I haven't recognized which country is Kokoso from!

You never visited the Köning and Kreuziger threads haven't you

Gee, Jakub was joking.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re:

Recovery will play major part. Tomorrow's winner is probably going to win the whole race

Might want to rethink that one...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Quite frankly -Kruijswijk has just enough buffer to carry the maglia rosa all the way to Turin-barring of course either a bad day or an accident. He's climbing superbly matching Chaves & much better than Nibs....... We'll see how he behaves in the last wee- which looks exciting !!

Basically, you are right. He just has to be very attentive because of the weak team. He has no room for errors. He needs to tie a rope to the back of Nibali.

I don't think Kruijswijk has it in the bag, he 's in very nice position, but that was Contadors as well and then came that famous stage where he almost lost it, one bad day is all that's needed.

Kruiswijks advantage is not extremely big neither...

No, but if Kruijswijk was known for one thing, it was his extremely strong 3rd week. If he still has that. Then there is no way, he will only get stronger.

 

[Kokoso]

Re:

Not really clear, because the timecheck wasn't placed in a very helpful place on this TT. They must have reconned this climb over and over after Trentino cos they haven't done that many races with WT invites.

Anyway, check out this MTT from Valle d'Aosta 2012 where Foliforov was 4" slower than Fabio Aru, who's 2 years older than him, and faster than Berhane, Lutsenko and Formolo. And this top 5 in a hilly Coppi e Bartali TT in 2014. He has some top results in .2 and U23 climbing races like the Ronde de l'Isard, Valle d'Aosta and the Tour de l'Avenir.

Yes, I'm shocked at his win. But the guy is clearly a good climber, all of his junior and U23 results point to climbing ability, and he didn't work hard yesterday so clearly earmarked this as a stage to get noticed in. Even he probably didn't expect to win, but if he could get up in the top 5, top 10, it'd be a good showing. Yesterday's stage being raced harder than many expected for the top contenders (myself included) helped him. Foliforov is a shock winner, but the fact that he's still relatively young and Gazprom don't get that many invites means people are reacting more viscerally than perhaps they should.

Firsanov lost ten minutes more then Foliforov yesterday, looks like he was saving energy too.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

So, 6 more stages, 2 flat, one very interesting medium mountain stage and 3 mountain stages.

Tuesday probably not as important as the other two since the final climb just isnt super hard, the Pinerolo stage could be great but the advantage for Kruijswijk is that there is only one climb so it will only be about strength and Nibali can't use his team as effectively as in the other stages, stage 19 is a mtf so actually advantage Kruijswijk again, but considering the situation in the gc right now I can even imagine that something will happen on the Agnello and then stage 20 should be one big firework (except Kruijswijk gains another two minutes on everyone else until then, then there will only be fights for the podium)

 

[Jelantik]

Re: Re:

This is hilarious. Nibali what the **** were you doing?

He still has a chance to win it, let's just hope the cycling gods won't give him another break with a kruiswijk crash but i've a feeling something bad is gonna happen to kruiswijk. Hope i'm wrong

Nibali preparation was underdone according to Slongo probably to try for Giro-Tour double. Really stupid of Astana o underestimate their rivals. Vino had already stated that Nibali would win.

if this is true. Even if Nibali wins the Giro, he will arrive in the Tour just like Contador. He got drained by dealing w/ Landa + Aru and the rest of Astana team. Nibali will have to deal with the stubborn Chavez and Kruiswijk. Seeing him yesterday and today, he looked like he has been laboring and seem that he need to dig deep to chase those two youngster. Aside from his mech issue, Chavez and Kruiswijk are still putting a good number after leaving Nibali in the dust the day before. And I still think at the end of TT w/ his mec, Nibali still looses time to Kruiswijk.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

So which of these environmental variables made Kruijswijk lose the ITT today?

All of them, jointly. With very fine margins, results are as good as random. Today two riders put it indistinguishable performances and a coinflip decided.

That very close outcomes are decided by randomness is a something that is even used in empirical studies. It's 'natural' randomisation.