2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km MTT

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Majka will win.

The Barb

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

If there's to be a surprise, Sebastian Henao is getting better as the race goes on and will be motivated to close the gap on Jungels for the white jersey.

sir fly

Re: Re:

Red Rick said:
SeriousSam said:
What was Lance's VAM at the Alpe TT?

Think it was high 1700, low 1800ish. However, Alpe d'Huez is like 40 to 50% longer. Altitude is the same
It was hardly above 1800, by my calculation.
His total time was 37:36, but the first 1,3 kilometres wasn't the classified climb.
So, to be 1800 or above, he should've smoked the flat part in 55 seconds.
The upper half of 1700's is objective estimate.

sir fly

Re:

Red Rick said:
It's the opposite, the slower the flat part was, the faster the climb and the faster the climb
You're right.
So, above 55 seconds means above 1800. Inverse proportion it is.
Then it is mid 1800's, it appears.

Edit:
Wait, wait... It's not good again.
I've calculated for 36:37, and it's 37:36.
So, the final result is - anything less than 114 seconds for the opening 1,3 kilometres equals less than 1800vam, and vise versa.
It looks like it was less than 1800.

3600:1800 = x:1071
x = 2142 -> time in seconds for classified climb on 1800vam.
Hard to believe he was slower than 41,05km/h on the flat.

blaxland

1st=Kruisjwijk
2nd=chaves(10sec)
3rd=Nibali(25sec)
4th=Valverde(30sec)

yespatterns

I'm going Chavito. Any indications on wind?

Thanks Jspear!

Dekker_Tifosi

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

I dunno if an MTT is suited to Kruijswijk's particular diesel skills..

This was 2011, and he lost a minute to Nibali. But he was a puppy back then:
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Giro_Italia_2011_Stage_15_ITT_Nevegal

This was 2013, but hampered by his leg artery problems at that time, lost 2:30
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Giro_Italia_2013_Stage_18_ITT_Polsa

So.. not much to go on. In theory the steeper and longer the climb the better it is for him. So I think this will suit him anyway. But normally Nibali should do better. However.. normally he should've done better yesterday also

Red Rick

I think it's mostly the attrition that suits Kruijswijk, rather than a particular style of climb, though long climbs are better. Nibali was clearly better the day before yesterday, though now they have toe recover from all the efforts of yesterday. Nibali is a beast in MTTs though. Always does well on them, despite often sucking the stage before.

Ryo Hazuki

Re:

yespatterns said:
I'm going Chavito. Any indications on wind?
the climb is near 9% average

Ryo Hazuki

Re: Re:

Eyeballs Out said:
Kwibus said:
SafeBet said:
Rogla
Stevo
Nibbles

Lotto Jumbo 1-2 is coming.

Imagine that )
It would be silly/selfish for Roglic to go full gas here. He should keep his powder dry for next week when the team could need him quite badly
yeah an effort of 10 km is really going to cost him the final week

Red Rick

Lol, tomorrow is a rest day, tuesday he shouldn't be isolated anyway, wednesday is mostly downhill, thursday Roglic isn't gonna be there if they hammer Pramartino anyway, so when he needs to be useful again were 5 days later. He can even go hard on the first part and just check out if his intermediate sucks.

Ricco'

Re:

Red Rick said:
Lol, tomorrow is a rest day, tuesday he shouldn't be isolated anyway, wednesday is mostly downhill, thursday Roglic isn't gonna be there if they hammer Pramartino anyway, so when he needs to be useful again were 5 days later. He can even go hard on the first part and just check out if his intermediate sucks.

And if it sucks he could just take it easy and win the whole thing.

Hugo Koblet

Can't see anyone but Chaves, Kruijswijk or Nibali winning this one. My money is on Chaves but I agree with the posters who says that gaps between the three will be very small.

Bushman

Re: Re:

Kwibus said:
Eyeballs Out said:
Kwibus said:
SafeBet said:
Rogla
Stevo
Nibbles

Lotto Jumbo 1-2 is coming.

Imagine that )
It would be silly/selfish for Roglic to go full gas here. He should keep his powder dry for next week when the team could need him quite badly

His climbing isn't good enough anyways.

It's different with this kind of climbing though. It's a sustained effort of less than 30 minutes, we've seen he has the power from the other tt's and he isnt too heavy.

Re: Re:

Bushman said:
Kwibus said:
Eyeballs Out said:
Kwibus said:
SafeBet said:
Rogla
Stevo
Nibbles

Lotto Jumbo 1-2 is coming.

Imagine that )
It would be silly/selfish for Roglic to go full gas here. He should keep his powder dry for next week when the team could need him quite badly

His climbing isn't good enough anyways.

It's different with this kind of climbing though. It's a sustained effort of less than 30 minutes, we've seen he has the power from the other tt's and he isnt too heavy.

Certainly, but I think today is for the real climbers. He can top 10, but winning I don't think so.