2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km MTT

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

I'm going Chavito. Any indications on wind?

the climb is near 9% average

...and in the forset I suppose

 

[Jelantik]

Re:

What about Valverde ? Will he lose much time today? for the GC battle let's hope he doesn't...

valverde will be doing what he typically does. Wheel suck .. . I guess today will tell whether he can keep his GC podium alive.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

Can't see anyone but Chaves, Kruijswijk or Nibali winning this one. My money is on Chaves but I agree with the posters who says that gaps between the three will be very small.

Yesterday was a day of artrition. Today is a 10km uphill effort. I think there are more contenders, but then again the artrition of yesterday could still very well play a role.

It certainly was, but I also think that yesterday showed that Kruijwijk, Chaves and Nibali are the strongest uphill. Who else do you think can challenge for the win today?

Possibly, but most of all they dealt better with the altitude, distance and atrition.
So maybe Valverde climbs better, but was just too worn out yesterday to show that.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

http://www.gazzetta.it/radiocorsa/giroditalia/2016/15/classifica_crono_parziale_01.json
http://www.gazzetta.it/radiocorsa/giroditalia/2016/15/classifica_crono_parziale_02.json
http://www.gazzetta.it/radiocorsa/giroditalia/2016/15/classifica_crono_finale.json

Almost useless. The 1st intermediate is only at 1/3 along the way and the 2nd one is from last week ITT.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

I think Scarponi might cause an upset. He was really strong on Giau and then forced to not go full speed once he was in the Valverde group. He has probably recovered better than most.

Don't get me excited

I think Scarponi will not go all out since he has a lot of work ahead of him.
Then again it's just a 30 minute effort so what am I talking about

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

I was curious how much of a GC indicator this MTT would be. Here are the MTT results since 2010, and I bolded the riders whose MTT results closely mirrored their GC finish place or order. In terms of difficulty, I'd rank the following from hardest to least 2010-2014-2013-2011, and ordered the results as such.

2010Mtt Stage 16
1 Stefano Garzelli (Acqua e Sapone) 12.8 km in 41:28:00 (18.5 km/h)
2 Cadel Evans (BMC) + 0:42
3 John Gadret (AG2R) + 0:54
4 Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) + 1:01
5 Michele Scarponi (Androni) + 1:07
6 Ivan Basso (Liquigas) + 1:10
7 Rigoberto Urán (Caisse d'Epargne) + 1:36
8 Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana) + 1:37
9 Dario Cataldo (Quick Step) + 1:41
10 Evgeni Petrov (Katusha) + 1:46

Final GC 2010
1 Ivan BASSO (LIQ) 87:44:01
2 David ARROYO DURAN (GCE) + 1:51
3 Vincenzo NIBALI (LIQ) + 2:37
4 Michele SCARPONI (AND) + 2:50
5 Cadel EVANS (BMC) + 3:27
6 Alexandre VINOKOUROV (AST) + 7:06
7 Richie PORTE (SAX) + 7:22
8 Carlos SASTRE CANDIL (CTT) + 9:39
9 Marco PINOTTI (THR) + 14:20
10 Robert KISERLOVSKI (LIQ) + 14:51

2014 MTT Stage 19
COL 1 QUINTANA ROJAS, Nairo Alexander (MOVISTAR) 1:05:37
ITA 2 ARU, Fabio (ASTANA) + 17
COL 3 URAN URAN, Rigoberto (OMEGA PHARMA - QUICK-STEP) + 1:26
FRA 4 ROLLAND, Pierre (EUROPCAR) + 1:57
ITA 5 POZZOVIVO, Domenico (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 2:24
ITA 6 PELLIZOTTI, Franco (ANDRONI GIOCATTOLI) + 3:22
POL 7 MAJKA, Rafal (TINKOFF-SAXO) + 3:28
COL 8 HENAO GOMEZ, Sebastian (SKY) + 3:48
BEL 9 WELLENS, Tim (LOTTO BELISOL) + 4:00
ITA 10 CATALDO, Dario (SKY) + 4:10

2014 Final GC
COL 1 QUINTANA ROJAS, Nairo Alexander (MOVISTAR) 88:14:32
COL 2 URAN URAN, Rigoberto (OMEGA PHARMA - QUICK-STEP) + 2:58
ITA 3 ARU, Fabio (ASTANA) + 4:04
FRA 4 ROLLAND, Pierre (EUROPCAR) + 5:46
ITA 5 POZZOVIVO, Domenico (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 6:32
POL 6 MAJKA, Rafal (TINKOFF-SAXO) + 7:04
NED 7 KELDERMAN, Wilco (BELKIN) + 11:00
AUS 8 EVANS, Cadel (BMC RACING) + 11:51
CAN 9 HESJEDAL, Ryder (GARMIN SHARP) + 13:35
CRO 10 KISERLOVSKI, Robert (TREK FACTORY RACING) + 15:49

2013 Stage 18 MTT
ITA 1 NIBALI, Vincenzo (ASTANA PRO TEAM) 44:29
ESP 2 SANCHEZ GONZALEZ, Samuel (EUSKALTEL EUSKADI) + 58
ITA 3 CARUSO, Damiano (CANNONDALE PRO CYCLING) + 1:20
ITA 4 SCARPONI, Michele (LAMPRE-MERIDA) + 1:21
POL 5 MAJKA, Rafal (SAXO-TINKOFF) + 1:25
COL 6 URAN URAN, Rigoberto (SKY PROCYCLING) + 1:26
COL 7 BETANCUR GOMEZ, Carlos Alberto (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 1:32
NED 8 CLEMENT, Stef (BLANCO PRO CYCLING) + 1:36
ITA 9 CATALDO, Dario (SKY PROCYCLING) + 1:41
ITA 10 DI LUCA, Danilo (VINI FANTINI - SELLE ITALIA) + 1:52

2013 Final GC
ITA 1 NIBALI, Vincenzo (ASTANA PRO TEAM) 84:53:28
COL 2 URAN URAN, Rigoberto (SKY PROCYCLING) + 4:43
AUS 3 EVANS, Cadel (BMC RACING) + 5:52
ITA 4 SCARPONI, Michele (LAMPRE-MERIDA) + 6:48
COL 5 BETANCUR GOMEZ, Carlos Alberto (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 7:28
POL 6 NIEMIEC, Przemyslaw (LAMPRE-MERIDA) + 7:43
POL 7 MAJKA, Rafal (SAXO-TINKOFF) + 8:09
ESP 8 INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA, Benat (MOVISTAR TEAM) + 10:26
ITA 9 SANTAMBROGIO, Mauro (VINI FANTINI - SELLE ITALIA) + 10:32
ITA 10 POZZOVIVO, Domenico (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 10:59

Stage 16 MTT
1 Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-SunGard) 20:55
2 Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas-Cannondale) + 0:34
3 Michele Scarponi (Lampre-ISD) + 0:38
4 José Rujano (Androni) + 0:39
5 Stefano Garzelli (Acqua&Sapone) + 0:51
6 Roman Kreuziger (Astana) + 0:49
7 Denis Menchov (Geox-TMC) + 0:52
8 Marco Pinotti (HTC-Highroad) + 0:58
9 Branislau Samoilau (Movistar Team) + 0:59
10 Vladimir Miholjevic (Acqua&Sapone) + 1:04 2011

2011 Final GC
1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Saxo Bank Sungard 84:05:14
2 Michele Scarponi (Ita) Lampre - ISD + 6:10
3 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale + 6:56
4 John Gadret (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale + 10:04
5 Joaquím Rodríguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha Team + 11:05
6 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Pro Team Astana + 11:28
7 José Rujano Guillen (Ven) Androni Giocattoli + 12:12
8 Denis Menchov (Rus) Geox-TMC + 12:18
9 Steven Kruijswijk (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team + 13:51
10 Kanstantsin Sivtsov (Blr) HTC-Highroad + 14:10

Did I learn anything? Except for Basso and Evans in 2010, I think we can say that the finish order of GC men today will be pretty close to the GC order at the finish. I probably could have said that without doing a lot of copy/pasting, but its nice to see it laid out.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Usually they finish in order of their climbing ability, with a few other guys thrown in the middle depending on who has a good day or has been saving themselves for the stage (Garzelli, Sánchez)

 

[doperhopper]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

out of boredom: who's going to sit the longest in the MTT leader chair?

should be one of the good climbers way back in GC

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

out of boredom: who's going to sit the longest in the MTT leader chair?

should be one of the good climbers way back in GC

Dombrowski?

 

[Pantani Attacks]

Ian "Tommy V" Boswell

 

[Squire]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

out of boredom: who's going to sit the longest in the MTT leader chair?

should be one of the good climbers way back in GC

It might actually be Rybalkin. He's been there for quite a while already.

Perhaps Lopez or Wellens, if any of the get there, and Roglic doesn't beat them.

 

[Scarponi]

Re: Re:

I think Scarponi might cause an upset. He was really strong on Giau and then forced to not go full speed once he was in the Valverde group. He has probably recovered better than most.

Don't get me excited

I think Scarponi will not go all out since he has a lot of work ahead of him.
Then again it's just a 30 minute effort so what am I talking about

I don't expect him to but if the 1% chance that he wins this I'll explode

 

[SafeBet]

I'm curious to see what Ciccone will do today. Yesterday he was 20th in the hardest stage of his first GT and he seems very good in pacing himself.

 

[luckyboy]

Can't see any climber who really took it easy yesterday.. Formolo finished 27 minutes down is the only one that stands out. Maybe he can do something good.
Roglic +17mins too

 

[Red Rick]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km

I was curious how much of a GC indicator this MTT would be. Here are the MTT results since 2010, and I bolded the riders whose MTT results closely mirrored their GC finish place or order. In terms of difficulty, I'd rank the following from hardest to least 2010-2014-2013-2011, and ordered the results as such.
................
.

You can probably say that if they're not seperated by much by now, the gaps won't be big as well. I also think that it favours the unipublic type climbers a little more than the rollercoaster type climbers. And I think the Monte Grappa tt is definitely harder than the Plan de Corones tt.

Valverde may suprise today

 

[doperhopper]

another contest: Who else will dare to start with TT bars like Wellens?

 

[Ataraxus]

Garzelli predicts a best time of 26' -26'30".
And S.K. for the win

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Re:

another contest: Who else will dare to start with TT bars like Wellens?

Wellens would start every race with aero bars if it was allowed.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re: Re:

another contest: Who else will dare to start with TT bars like Wellens?

Wellens would start every race with areo bars if it was allowed.

Indeed. He rides road races in a tt position so much of the time, even on steep climbs

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Garzelli predicts a best time of 26' -26'30".
And S.K. for the win

I predict 28' - 28'30"

 

[luckyboy]

On Eurosport they showed Kruijswijk's Bianchi with clip-on bars and 6.82kg weight

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re: Re:

Garzelli predicts a best time of 26' -26'30".
And S.K. for the win

I predict 28' - 28'30"

In 2009 they did around 27m at the end of a road stage

 

[murali]

if best time is 28', a lot of riders crossing 35 are going to get OTTed.

Already one rider (ERSHOV Artur of gazprom at 38') is OTT.

right now, with boswell's 30'04", the cutoff is 37'46"

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Garzelli predicts a best time of 26' -26'30".
And S.K. for the win

I predict 28' - 28'30"

In 2009 they did around 27m at the end of a road stage

That didn't include all of the false flat at the start.

 

[Eshnar]

I'll go for 27'... Seeing the times now I was way too optimistic.