Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Castelrotto – Alpe di Siusi 10.8 km
I was curious how much of a GC indicator this MTT would be. Here are the MTT results since 2010, and I bolded the riders whose MTT results closely mirrored their GC finish place or order. In terms of difficulty, I'd rank the following from hardest to least 2010-2014-2013-2011, and ordered the results as such.
2010Mtt Stage 16
1 Stefano Garzelli (Acqua e Sapone) 12.8 km in 41:28:00 (18.5 km/h)
2 Cadel Evans (BMC) + 0:42
3 John Gadret (AG2R) + 0:54
4 Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) + 1:01
5 Michele Scarponi (Androni) + 1:07
6 Ivan Basso (Liquigas) + 1:10
7 Rigoberto Urán (Caisse d'Epargne) + 1:36
8 Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana) + 1:37
9 Dario Cataldo (Quick Step) + 1:41
10 Evgeni Petrov (Katusha) + 1:46
Final GC 2010
1 Ivan BASSO (LIQ) 87:44:01
2 David ARROYO DURAN (GCE) + 1:51
3 Vincenzo NIBALI (LIQ) + 2:37
4 Michele SCARPONI (AND) + 2:50
5 Cadel EVANS (BMC) + 3:27
6 Alexandre VINOKOUROV (AST) + 7:06
7 Richie PORTE (SAX) + 7:22
8 Carlos SASTRE CANDIL (CTT) + 9:39
9 Marco PINOTTI (THR) + 14:20
10 Robert KISERLOVSKI (LIQ) + 14:51
2014 MTT Stage 19
COL 1 QUINTANA ROJAS, Nairo Alexander (MOVISTAR) 1:05:37
ITA 2 ARU, Fabio (ASTANA) + 17
COL 3 URAN URAN, Rigoberto (OMEGA PHARMA - QUICK-STEP) + 1:26
FRA 4 ROLLAND, Pierre (EUROPCAR) + 1:57
ITA 5 POZZOVIVO, Domenico (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 2:24
ITA 6 PELLIZOTTI, Franco (ANDRONI GIOCATTOLI) + 3:22
POL 7 MAJKA, Rafal (TINKOFF-SAXO) + 3:28
COL 8 HENAO GOMEZ, Sebastian (SKY) + 3:48
BEL 9 WELLENS, Tim (LOTTO BELISOL) + 4:00
ITA 10 CATALDO, Dario (SKY) + 4:10
2014 Final GC
COL 1 QUINTANA ROJAS, Nairo Alexander (MOVISTAR) 88:14:32
COL 2 URAN URAN, Rigoberto (OMEGA PHARMA - QUICK-STEP) + 2:58
ITA 3 ARU, Fabio (ASTANA) + 4:04
FRA 4 ROLLAND, Pierre (EUROPCAR) + 5:46
ITA 5 POZZOVIVO, Domenico (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 6:32
POL 6 MAJKA, Rafal (TINKOFF-SAXO) + 7:04
NED 7 KELDERMAN, Wilco (BELKIN) + 11:00
AUS 8 EVANS, Cadel (BMC RACING) + 11:51
CAN 9 HESJEDAL, Ryder (GARMIN SHARP) + 13:35
CRO 10 KISERLOVSKI, Robert (TREK FACTORY RACING) + 15:49
2013 Stage 18 MTT
ITA 1 NIBALI, Vincenzo (ASTANA PRO TEAM) 44:29
ESP 2 SANCHEZ GONZALEZ, Samuel (EUSKALTEL EUSKADI) + 58
ITA 3 CARUSO, Damiano (CANNONDALE PRO CYCLING) + 1:20
ITA 4 SCARPONI, Michele (LAMPRE-MERIDA) + 1:21
POL 5 MAJKA, Rafal (SAXO-TINKOFF) + 1:25
COL 6 URAN URAN, Rigoberto (SKY PROCYCLING) + 1:26
COL 7 BETANCUR GOMEZ, Carlos Alberto (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 1:32
NED 8 CLEMENT, Stef (BLANCO PRO CYCLING) + 1:36
ITA 9 CATALDO, Dario (SKY PROCYCLING) + 1:41
ITA 10 DI LUCA, Danilo (VINI FANTINI - SELLE ITALIA) + 1:52
2013 Final GC
ITA 1 NIBALI, Vincenzo (ASTANA PRO TEAM) 84:53:28
COL 2 URAN URAN, Rigoberto (SKY PROCYCLING) + 4:43
AUS 3 EVANS, Cadel (BMC RACING) + 5:52
ITA 4 SCARPONI, Michele (LAMPRE-MERIDA) + 6:48
COL 5 BETANCUR GOMEZ, Carlos Alberto (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 7:28
POL 6 NIEMIEC, Przemyslaw (LAMPRE-MERIDA) + 7:43
POL 7 MAJKA, Rafal (SAXO-TINKOFF) + 8:09
ESP 8 INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA, Benat (MOVISTAR TEAM) + 10:26
ITA 9 SANTAMBROGIO, Mauro (VINI FANTINI - SELLE ITALIA) + 10:32
ITA 10 POZZOVIVO, Domenico (AG2R LA MONDIALE) + 10:59
Stage 16 MTT
1 Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-SunGard) 20:55
2 Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas-Cannondale) + 0:34
3 Michele Scarponi (Lampre-ISD) + 0:38
4 José Rujano (Androni) + 0:39
5 Stefano Garzelli (Acqua&Sapone) + 0:51
6 Roman Kreuziger (Astana) + 0:49
7 Denis Menchov (Geox-TMC) + 0:52
8 Marco Pinotti (HTC-Highroad) + 0:58
9 Branislau Samoilau (Movistar Team) + 0:59
10 Vladimir Miholjevic (Acqua&Sapone) + 1:04 2011
2011 Final GC
1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Saxo Bank Sungard 84:05:14
2 Michele Scarponi (Ita) Lampre - ISD + 6:10
3 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale + 6:56
4 John Gadret (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale + 10:04
5 Joaquím Rodríguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha Team + 11:05
6 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Pro Team Astana + 11:28
7 José Rujano Guillen (Ven) Androni Giocattoli + 12:12
8 Denis Menchov (Rus) Geox-TMC + 12:18
9 Steven Kruijswijk (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team + 13:51
10 Kanstantsin Sivtsov (Blr) HTC-Highroad + 14:10
Did I learn anything? Except for Basso and Evans in 2010, I think we can say that the finish order of GC men today will be pretty close to the GC order at the finish. I probably could have said that without doing a lot of copy/pasting, but its nice to see it laid out.