2016 Giro d'Italia - Stage 4 Catanzaro – Praia a Mare 200km

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Im going with Kittel here and a passive stage

Even on a passive stage someone will attack hard enough on that last climb to drop Kittel. 1.8km @ 7.7% with 8.5km to go is out of Kittels league. This stage has nothing to do with that rolling half stage he won in Romandie or the "climb" to Hatta dam.

What do you mean by 'drop'? If any rider positions themselves well enough going into the climb, they could be absolutely awful on it, but would still be within touching distance of the end of the peloton after just 1.8km.

Very slim chance he gets dropped; maybe he'll end up at the back of the peloton - too far back to contest the stage win. But he's not going to get completely dropped in 1.8km if he positions himself half decently coming into the climb.

Terrain before that final hill is really lumpy, up and down with narrow roads. I doubt Kittel will be in good position going into the climb. In fact I think he'll be dropped like a stone and finish at least minute behind

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Re: Re:

What is all this Kittel talk, people ?
Did anybody even read my stage analysis?

Actually, Kittel is the bookmakers odds-on-favourite since its an extremely difficult stage to predict an outright winner when Sagan isn't here. However, he is the most likely winner because if he survives, he wins, end of. The probability of a passive race is not super big, but if its indeed a passive affair, Kittel got it. He is in monster shape and actually showed some decent climbing-ability in Romandie.

I got Kittel at 8, so I basically hope for a bad race. Its like betting on your favourite team to lose, win-win.

Wouldn't be quite so sure. In Romandie he survived and just edged out Bonifazio, despite a better lead out, as he was so tired. If Kittel survives I expect one of Nizzolo, Modolo, Demare, Greipel or Viviani to also survive. All of them are as quick or quicker than Bonifazio. Also worth mentioning 109 riders finished in the first group of a 100k reduced stage, without the only genuine climb. The rest was rolling. But still, he was extremely tired and got almost beaten. With 200km, more hills and harder hills, even if Kittel by some miracle gets to the end he may not have the legs to win it.

Even in Stage 5, he may be tired by the end, especially with the uphill drag that suits Ewan perfectly.

The bit about 109 riders finishing in the first group is a bit misleading. At the summit of the final climb the group was down to about 30 riders from memory and Kittel was in there and not even right at the back. Bonifazio did a superb ride, Albasini gave it a good go - they were the strongest on the final stage also. There was a big gap back to the notable lighter sprinters who finished 4th to 9th - most of whom only rejoined after the final climb. Kittel's form seems to have improved a lot since De Panne and Scheldeprijs. Tomorrow is certainly harder than Romandie. If I was him I'd give it a miss and wait for the day after which I would expect him to win easily with a day off

 

[Anderis]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Stage 4 Catanzaro – Praia a Mare 20

4 Cannondale's riders already mentioned.

So I'll go with Alberto Bettiol for this.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Stage 4 Catanzaro – Praia a Mare 20

4 Cannondale's riders already mentioned.

So I'll go with Alberto Bettiol for this.

.. and nobody will finish in top-20.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

Modolo or Nizzolo.

Though maybe Formolo with an attack.

Is it only riders whose name end in and O you back ??

 

[BigMac]

Re: Re:

Modolo or Nizzolo.

Though maybe Formolo with an attack.

Is it only riders whose name end in and O you back ??

''OLO'', actually.

 

[Netserk]

Nibolo FTW then!

 

[Anderis]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Stage 4 Catanzaro – Praia a Mare 20

4 Cannondale's riders already mentioned.

So I'll go with Alberto Bettiol for this.

.. and nobody will finish in top-20.

Most likely.

 

[Pantani_lives]

I misread Formolo as "Froomolo".

 

[rune1107]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Stage 4 Catanzaro – Praia a Mare 20

You get 4/6 if Colbrelli finishes ahead of Tsatevich tomorrow. Might aswell empty the bank, and put it all on that one!

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Stage 4 Catanzaro – Praia a Mare 20

You get 4/6 if Colbrelli finishes ahead of Tsatevich tomorrow. Might aswell empty the bank, and put it all on that one!

Yep, I got that one as well, Sonny the man.
It was actually 1,80 at some point.

 

[Orbit501]

Surprised Sbaragli hasn't had a mention yet. In good form, and one of the better sprinters at hanging on over the bumps I think.

Also believe Amador would be quite capable of taking pink if he was allowed, but can't see Movistar wanting the jersey at this stage of the race.

 

[rune1107]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Stage 4 Catanzaro – Praia a Mare 20

You get 4/6 if Colbrelli finishes ahead of Tsatevich tomorrow. Might aswell empty the bank, and put it all on that one!

Yep, I got that one as well, Sonny the man.
It was actually 1,80 at some point.

It's insane

 

[the delgados]

I don't know who's going to win, but I wish Carlton Kirby was there to prognosticate.
"Ohh, Sean! Do you think Nicola Ruffoni is going to win this?!'

 

[Popchu]

Re: 2016 Giro d'Italia - Stage 4 Catanzaro – Praia a Mare 20

You get 4/6 if Colbrelli finishes ahead of Tsatevich tomorrow. Might aswell empty the bank, and put it all on that one!

Yep, I got that one as well, Sonny the man.
It was actually 1,80 at some point.

It's insane

Don't underestimate Tsatevich.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

I don't know who's going to win, but I wish Carlton Kirby was there to prognosticate.
"Ohh, Sean! Do you think Nicola Ruffoni is going to win this?!'

What ! You know and I know Kirby would have his money on the man who should have /could have won MSR ...Si Clarke ...Kirby's latest crush...Poor Simon Clarke must have bought Kirby a drink in a bar or something once

 

[Billie]

Pirazzi will go pazzi for the first time this Giro.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re:

Surely Giant will be the ones really driving the pace here. Drop Kittel before the finish and they will be back in pink, and may well hold it for a couple of weeks.

If they're not going to go all out to drop Kittel here, then what is the point of eight of the riders on their team?

That would make sense. Hopefully they drive it.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Plaza Molina with another 100km solo.....

 

[PremierAndrew]

Going for a Wellens + Colbrelli attack on the final ramp with 9k to go staying clear, with Colbrelli taking the two-up sprint

 

[Robert5091]

Unless Valverde thinks he can out climb Nibs, he'll look to get time on these intermediate stages - Movistar and Astana go full gas!

 

[Eshnar]

Re: Re:

What is all this Kittel talk, people ?
Did anybody even read my stage analysis?

Actually, Kittel is the bookmakers odds-on-favourite since its an extremely difficult stage to predict an outright winner when Sagan isn't here. However, he is the most likely winner because if he survives, he wins, end of. The probability of a passive race is not super big, but if its indeed a passive affair, Kittel got it. He is in monster shape and actually showed some decent climbing-ability in Romandie.

I got Kittel at 8, so I basically hope for a bad race. Its like betting on your favourite team to lose, win-win.

After seeing Cassani pointing at Cavendish as the favourite of the 2013 stage to Ascea I won't get surprised by anything...

 

[Squire]

Can someone help me out here.

I'm struggling to understand the points classification. The points tally of Kittel, who's in the lead, makes perfect sense. 50x2 for the stage wins and 6 for the TT placing = 106.

BUT... Maarten Tjallingii in 2nd place puzzles me. He won all the TV sprints, which are listed as 10 points each, but for both stage 2 and 3, he's listed as having scored 40 points on the stage, for a total of 80 in the classification.

So, are the Traguardo Volante sprints worth 10 points each for the TV competition and 20 points each for the points classification?

 

[Ruudz0r]

Re:

Can someone help me out here.

I'm struggling to understand the points classification. The points tally of Kittel, who's in the lead, makes perfect sense. 50x2 for the stage wins and 6 for the TT placing = 106.

BUT... Maarten Tjallingii in 2nd place puzzles me. He won all the TV sprints, which are listed as 10 points each, but for both stage 2 and 3, he's listed as having scored 40 points on the stage, for a total of 80 in the classification.

So, are the Traguardo Volante sprints worth 10 points each for the TV competition and 20 points each for the points classification?

Yes there is a different intermediate sprint classification but the same sprint indeed gives 20 points for the points classification

 

[Squire]

Well, with 40 points out on the road every day, going in lots of breakaways actually looks like a viable way of winning the points competition. There will be plenty of days where the Nizzolos and Modolos don't score any points. Go Pippo!