2016 Liège Bastogne Liège, April 24th, WT 253 km

[movingtarget]

Was hoping Albasini would get his breakthrough win and he rode a tremendous race but he did a bit too much on the front at the finish and Poels was smart enough to know that the finish straight was short and that being first around the corner was going to matter. Without Albasini's pacing the front four may have been caught but that's racing. He also seemed to have some issue with his gearing. None of the favourites figured in the finish which was a surprise but Valverde has never been one to like extreme conditions.

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

next year Matthews, Sagan, Bouhanni, Cocquard and even Degenkolb and Kristoff should all ride the Ardennes. Current racing suits their chances and hopefully seeing these sprinters still there in the closing kms will make the climbers and puncheurs realise how pathetic their racing has become.

They would be dropped before the feed zone. Well maybe with the exception of Sagan and Matthews, still they would not win tho.

Look at the quality of climbers who got dropped way before the final today.


What people fail to understand is that such a field as today contains a much larger amount of hill and climbing specialists then any other race. Thus the level difference is low, and it's both hard to ride away and hard to drop a lot of men.

In a hilly stage in a stage race or in a grand Tour, it's easier, because the field is a mix of climbers, tt specialists, sprinters and flat specialists/cobble specialists. Thus a much larger difference in quality going uphill. Peloton is easier to split, less strong climbing domestiques, more difference.

So the whole "pff coquard and matthews or even degenkolb could've won here because there is 30 men left" argument, does not fly.

You are forgetting that Gerrans won that race and I would take Sagan over Gerrans on this sort of terrain in any day. If they race properly, surely he has no chance but given that Gerrans won this race, I fail to see why Sagan couldn't if he tries in future.

Gerrans has proven more on this kind of terrain then Sagan. I do believe if Sagan shifted his focus a bit more toward climbing then he could survive this yes.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

Kreuziger's results here: 4th (2011), 5th (2015), 7th (2014,2016)...always there, always looking strong, but no podium for him. I hope he will win this one day

Yeah, he likes this race and it suits him.Unfortunately with this kind of fashion how this race is raced recently his only chance to win is his AGR style Im worried, which is highly unlikely when he is a marked man. There are these idiots like Valverde,Gerrans and Martiin with strong teams who only want to race in last 5k lol, so no chance

These idiots won 5 editions of LBL! They pretty much know what they're doing, which I can't say for your boy here Kreuziger. If he's not strong in the finish, well he should try earlier. Yet you blame riders who are perfectly suitable for this finish and this style of racing. If someone is to blame, why don't you start with that same Kreuziger. Truth is, he'll hardly going to win this race, in any kind of fashion.

He attacked earlier last two years ago with no luck. This year team decided for him to wait untill last hill What could he do...

 

[hrotha]

Personally I'm highly sceptical of any claims that a selection can't be made because the average level is so high. Movistar had Sutherland pacing the peloton for like half the race - of course not many puncheurs and climbers are going to get dropped.

The peloton was every bit as packed with hilly riders in previous editions, and a selection was still made when the riders raced hard.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

next year Matthews, Sagan, Bouhanni, Cocquard and even Degenkolb and Kristoff should all ride the Ardennes. Current racing suits their chances and hopefully seeing these sprinters still there in the closing kms will make the climbers and puncheurs realise how pathetic their racing has become.

They would be dropped before the feed zone. Well maybe with the exception of Sagan and Matthews, still they would not win tho.

Look at the quality of climbers who got dropped way before the final today.


What people fail to understand is that such a field as today contains a much larger amount of hill and climbing specialists then any other race. Thus the level difference is low, and it's both hard to ride away and hard to drop a lot of men.

In a hilly stage in a stage race or in a grand Tour, it's easier, because the field is a mix of climbers, tt specialists, sprinters and flat specialists/cobble specialists. Thus a much larger difference in quality going uphill. Peloton is easier to split, less strong climbing domestiques, more difference.

So the whole "pff coquard and matthews or even degenkolb could've won here because there is 30 men left" argument, does not fly.

You are forgetting that Gerrans won that race and I would take Sagan over Gerrans on this sort of terrain in any day. If they race properly, surely he has no chance but given that Gerrans won this race, I fail to see why Sagan couldn't if he tries in future.

Gerrans has proven more on this kind of terrain then Sagan. I do believe if Sagan shifted his focus a bit more toward climbing then he could survive this yes.

I think Sagan and Degenkolb might be a bit heavy for a race like Liege. The accumulation of climbing might be too tough for them. Gerrans is a midget compared to those two and he has always been a decent climber and a good sprinter especially from small groups.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

These idiots won 5 editions of LBL! They pretty much know what they're doing, which I can't say for your boy here Kreuziger. If he's not strong in the finish, well he should try earlier. Yet you blame riders who are perfectly suitable for this finish and this style of racing. If someone is to blame, why don't you start with that same Kreuziger. Truth is, he'll hardly going to win this race, in any kind of fashion.

So much anger and contempt in one post.

Wow, what analysis!

 

[yaco]

Re:

next year Matthews, Sagan, Bouhanni, Cocquard and even Degenkolb and Kristoff should all ride the Ardennes. Current racing suits their chances and hopefully seeing these sprinters still there in the closing kms will make the climbers and puncheurs realise how pathetic their racing has become.

What a laughable post - The only of that sextet who could win LBL is Sagan and he'll need luck.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

next year Matthews, Sagan, Bouhanni, Cocquard and even Degenkolb and Kristoff should all ride the Ardennes. Current racing suits their chances and hopefully seeing these sprinters still there in the closing kms will make the climbers and puncheurs realise how pathetic their racing has become.

They would be dropped before the feed zone. Well maybe with the exception of Sagan and Matthews, still they would not win tho.

Look at the quality of climbers who got dropped way before the final today.


What people fail to understand is that such a field as today contains a much larger amount of hill and climbing specialists then any other race. Thus the level difference is low, and it's both hard to ride away and hard to drop a lot of men.

In a hilly stage in a stage race or in a grand Tour, it's easier, because the field is a mix of climbers, tt specialists, sprinters and flat specialists/cobble specialists. Thus a much larger difference in quality going uphill. Peloton is easier to split, less strong climbing domestiques, more difference.

So the whole "pff coquard and matthews or even degenkolb could've won here because there is 30 men left" argument, does not fly.

Thanks for a reasoned post - You display a good understanding of cycling in 2016.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

next year Matthews, Sagan, Bouhanni, Cocquard and even Degenkolb and Kristoff should all ride the Ardennes. Current racing suits their chances and hopefully seeing these sprinters still there in the closing kms will make the climbers and puncheurs realise how pathetic their racing has become.

They would be dropped before the feed zone. Well maybe with the exception of Sagan and Matthews, still they would not win tho.

Look at the quality of climbers who got dropped way before the final today.


What people fail to understand is that such a field as today contains a much larger amount of hill and climbing specialists then any other race. Thus the level difference is low, and it's both hard to ride away and hard to drop a lot of men.

In a hilly stage in a stage race or in a grand Tour, it's easier, because the field is a mix of climbers, tt specialists, sprinters and flat specialists/cobble specialists. Thus a much larger difference in quality going uphill. Peloton is easier to split, less strong climbing domestiques, more difference.

So the whole "pff coquard and matthews or even degenkolb could've won here because there is 30 men left" argument, does not fly.

You are forgetting that Gerrans won that race and I would take Sagan over Gerrans on this sort of terrain in any day. If they race properly, surely he has no chance but given that Gerrans won this race, I fail to see why Sagan couldn't if he tries in future.

As I posted earlier Gerrans victory was an outlier - He only won because of excellent support from OGE after the last climb - Sagan can be competitive especially if they leave the cobbled climb at the end.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

next year Matthews, Sagan, Bouhanni, Cocquard and even Degenkolb and Kristoff should all ride the Ardennes. Current racing suits their chances and hopefully seeing these sprinters still there in the closing kms will make the climbers and puncheurs realise how pathetic their racing has become.

What a laughable post - The only of that sextet who could could win LBL is Sagan and he'll need luck.

 

[samhocking]

I doubt Sagan would ever race LBL to win it. He would need to change a fair bit into a different type of rider physically capable of producing the repeated efforts over the succession of steep climbs. It's a race a bit too tough physically for him and I think the fact he's not ridden it yet, perhaps reason-enough to suspect he probably won't unless supporting another leader.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Valverde, Gasparotto, Dan Martin and Alaphilippe have to be favorites based on what we saw.

And Poels if it isnt too cold

If it isn't too cold, he won't stand a chance against Balaverde anyways. No way I can see Poels challenge him, Martin and Ala seems to be the only guys capable of playing him in Liege

Looking back. It was too cold, but he was still there

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

next year Matthews, Sagan, Bouhanni, Cocquard and even Degenkolb and Kristoff should all ride the Ardennes. Current racing suits their chances and hopefully seeing these sprinters still there in the closing kms will make the climbers and puncheurs realise how pathetic their racing has become.

Agreed. Sagan should definitely try. He can win LBL easily IMO if he lightens his spring race programme. He can win 4/5 monuments definitely and be the greatest classics rider since Kelly.

Yep, I continue to maintain that Sagan is more likely to win LBL than PR (and he's certainly capable of both)

In fact he's also capable of winning Lombardia - he's clearly not bad on the mountains when he's trying instead of just resting for the next flat stage in a GT. With the right training, he'd be right up there - he certainly doesn't lack descending skills either.

And obviously he can win MSR too

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

next year Matthews, Sagan, Bouhanni, Cocquard and even Degenkolb and Kristoff should all ride the Ardennes. Current racing suits their chances and hopefully seeing these sprinters still there in the closing kms will make the climbers and puncheurs realise how pathetic their racing has become.

Agreed. Sagan should definitely try. He can win LBL easily IMO if he lightens his spring race programme. He can win 4/5 monuments definitely and be the greatest classics rider since Kelly.

Yep, I continue to maintain that Sagan is more likely to win LBL than PR (and he's certainly capable of both)

In fact he's also capable of winning Lombardia - he's clearly not bad on the mountains when he's trying instead of just resting for the next flat stage in a GT. With the right training, he'd be right up there - he certainly doesn't lack descending skills either.

And obviously he can win MSR too

I think he has won the race that suits him best which is Flanders. Liege and Lombardy are too hard for him. He could win Roubaix but seems to struggle in it. Even he has said it's a race that does not really suit him which is odd because he has the right build and is a great bike handler. I think he could win a few Flanders. MSR is getting more difficult for him as well as he has lost his sprint speed a little against the best sprinters. The same thing happened to Boonen as he matured. I think he could only win MSR now by getting away on his own like he did at Flanders or getting in a group which did not have any elite sprinters which is rare at MSR.

 

[samhocking]

You need to be a totally different type of rider to win LBL. Sagan is simply not physically capable to ride the way you need to to win LBL. It's just not his type of race. You need to be either a top 10 capable GT rider hitting first good form in the spring like a Martin or Valverde or a specialist like Gerrans or Gilbert. Sagan's races are those he can use his high peak power in just one or to huge efforts and hold it at threshold to the line on his own or in a select group. One or two huge efforts and riding to the finish at constant high power can't win LBL though, you need to be able to produce at least 10 huge efforts to get over the climbs and still have something at the end. It's a pretty unique race in many ways. Much more difficult than it seems on TV.

Past Winners:
Oscar Camenzind
Paolo Bettini
Tyler Hamilton
Davide Rebellin
Alexandre Vinokourov
Alejandro Valverde
Danilo Di Luca
Alejandro Valverde
Andy Schleck
Alexandre Vinokourov
Philippe Gilbert
Maxim Iglinsky
Dan Martin
Simon Gerrans
Alejandro Valverde

 

[Red Rick]

You need to be a totally different type of rider to win LBL. Sagan is simply not physically capable to ride the way you need to to win LBL. It's just not his type of race. You need to be either a top 10 capable GT rider hitting first good form in the spring like a Martin or Valverde or a specialist like Gerrans or Gilbert. Sagan's races are those he can use his high peak power in just one or to huge efforts and hold it at threshold to the line on his own or in a select group. One or two huge efforts and riding to the finish at constant high power can't win LBL though, you need to be able to produce at least 10 huge efforts to get over the climbs and still have something at the end. It's a pretty unique race in many ways. Much more difficult than it seems on TV.

Past Winners:
Oscar Camenzind
Paolo Bettini
Tyler Hamilton
Davide Rebellin
Alexandre Vinokourov
Alejandro Valverde
Danilo Di Luca
Alejandro Valverde
Andy Schleck
Alexandre Vinokourov
Philippe Gilbert
Maxim Iglinsky
Dan Martin
Simon Gerrans
Alejandro Valverde

I agree. But then I remember that Gerrans won it once

Then I remember this stage

http://www.steephill.tv/players/profile/?race=tirreno-adriatico&stage=06&year=2013&src=http://www.grassyknolltv.com/2013/tirreno-adriatico/profile-06.jpg

That wasn't really a one effort race. But I think Sagan used to be a bit better at the walls then he is now. If he focused on it, he could do great, however, nobody is gonna make the Gerrans mistake with Sagan.

 

[Mr.White]

I think Sagan wants to win Roubaix first. The he'll loose 3-4 kilos and focus on Liege and Lombardia. Of course he will win San Remo in the process and that will be a "clean sweep"

 

[Bushman]

You need to be a totally different type of rider to win LBL. Sagan is simply not physically capable to ride the way you need to to win LBL. It's just not his type of race. You need to be either a top 10 capable GT rider hitting first good form in the spring like a Martin or Valverde or a specialist like Gerrans or Gilbert. Sagan's races are those he can use his high peak power in just one or to huge efforts and hold it at threshold to the line on his own or in a select group. One or two huge efforts and riding to the finish at constant high power can't win LBL though, you need to be able to produce at least 10 huge efforts to get over the climbs and still have something at the end. It's a pretty unique race in many ways. Much more difficult than it seems on TV.

Past Winners:
Oscar Camenzind
Paolo Bettini
Tyler Hamilton
Davide Rebellin
Alexandre Vinokourov
Alejandro Valverde
Danilo Di Luca
Alejandro Valverde
Andy Schleck
Alexandre Vinokourov
Philippe Gilbert
Maxim Iglinsky
Dan Martin
Simon Gerrans
Alejandro Valverde

I agree. But then I remember that Gerrans won it once

Then I remember this stage

http://www.steephill.tv/players/profile/?race=tirreno-adriatico&stage=06&year=2013&src=http://www.grassyknolltv.com/2013/tirreno-adriatico/profile-06.jpg

That wasn't really a one effort race. But I think Sagan used to be a bit better at the walls then he is now. If he focused on it, he could do great, however, nobody is gonna make the Gerrans mistake with Sagan.

Sagan obviously bulked up over the last 2-3 years. In his current shape he is two heavy for LBL but I think the race is definitely within his range if he focused on it and dropped a few pounds.

Sagan riding LBL would probably be the best thing that could happen to the race because then riders would surely realise that they have to make the race hard and attack