2016 Paris - Nice, March 6th - 13th, WT

[dacooley]

bertie
porte
dumoulin

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Madone has about the same gradient as Montagne de Lure. If Contador is great, he'll go on a tear anyway

True, the average gradient is similar but the profile is pretty different, Montagne de Lure has the hardest km in the 2nd half, Madone de l'Utelle in the first half. In fact, on this profile of Montagne de Lure I found they eliminate the first few kms which bumps the average gradient up to 6.6%

On Madone, Tinkoff could do some damage in the first kms to whittle down the group, and then Contador could go on the final few 100m but the potential time gain would be limited - still, any time gain at all is better than a time loss like on Foía

 

[jens_attacks]

don't expect anything on utelle until the last km...

 

[Gigs_98]

The reason why I voted for Contador is simply because there is no long ITT. I think when people see a route with only one mtf which isnt very steep they automatically think riders like Thomas and Dumoulin have to be strong, because they wont loose much time there. However this time it isnt about "not loosing too much time" its about "gaining time". If you watch a gt, would you expect that Contador looses time to Thomas or Dumoulin on a mtf like this, because I definitely wont. Also because I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be the first time Contador wins on a rather flat climb.

 

[Orbit501]

Re:

Despite weaker field than expected, there's enough people in the race to make it exciting.
I'll pay attention on Lulu, he'll want to make up what he missed in Catalunya.

Personally I think the field is pretty strong. Should be a good race too as the parcours look decent.

Lulu could have done really well here on current form, but I wonder how that ITT crash has affected him. He went down pretty hard and said he hurt for a while after. Not sure how technical the prologue is here... I wonder if he'll now take fewer risks following his fall?

He could either go really well in this race to make up for recent disappointment, or be lacking because of recovery.

Matthew's will be interesting to watch too. Flying off the back of a long winter training? , or not quite up to race speed? Did well here with the same program last year.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Race about to start...

Some of the first starters below (CET):
11:44 DI GREGORIO Rémy DMP
11:45 FEDRIGO Pierrick FVC
11:46 DENIFL Stephan IAM
11:47 VAN EMDEN Jos TLJ
11:48 TEKLEHAIMANOT Daniel DDD
11:49 VOECKLER Thomas DEN
11:50 RAST Gregory TFS
11:51 CRADDOCK Lawson CPT
11:52 MATÉ Luis Angel COF
11:53 PREIDLER Georg TGA
11:54 FOMINYKH Daniil AST
11:55 ROJAS José Joaquín MOV
11:56 COURTEILLE Arnaud FDJ
11:57 DE LA CRUZ David EQS
11:58 VALGREN Michael TNK


Ticker: http://www.letour.fr/paris-nice/2016/us/live/aso/

 

[Vesica]

Van Emden going to sit on the hot seat for a long time I expect.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Madone has about the same gradient as Montagne de Lure. If Contador is great, he'll go on a tear anyway

True, the average gradient is similar but the profile is pretty different, Montagne de Lure has the hardest km in the 2nd half, Madone de l'Utelle in the first half. In fact, on this profile of Montagne de Lure I found they eliminate the first few kms which bumps the average gradient up to 6.6%

On Madone, Tinkoff could do some damage in the first kms to whittle down the group, and then Contador could go on the final few 100m but the potential time gain would be limited - still, any time gain at all is better than a time loss like on Foía

'
That's true. But he still dropped everyone whilst still on the blue part of the climb sitting in the saddle.

Anyone have the profile of the last climb of the first Tirreno stage he won in 2014, where he beat Quintana in a sprint? That was quite a flat climb also, but if the peloton is on the ropes for just enough, it's not gonna be about finishing speed only.

 

[Pantani_lives]

1 Contador
2 Porte
3 Thomas
4 Dumoulin
5 Henao

Not sure if that climb is steep enough for Contador to make the difference. I'm curious to see how Porte will perform for his new team against Sky. If Dumoulin is in shape and wins the prologue it won't be obvious to drop him.

 

[roundabout]

46.33 average only for Van Emden

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

Madone has about the same gradient as Montagne de Lure. If Contador is great, he'll go on a tear anyway

True, the average gradient is similar but the profile is pretty different, Montagne de Lure has the hardest km in the 2nd half, Madone de l'Utelle in the first half. In fact, on this profile of Montagne de Lure I found they eliminate the first few kms which bumps the average gradient up to 6.6%

On Madone, Tinkoff could do some damage in the first kms to whittle down the group, and then Contador could go on the final few 100m but the potential time gain would be limited - still, any time gain at all is better than a time loss like on Foía

'
That's true. But he still dropped everyone whilst still on the blue part of the climb sitting in the saddle.

Anyone have the profile of the last climb of the first Tirreno stage he won in 2014, where he beat Quintana in a sprint? That was quite a flat climb also, but if the peloton is on the ropes for just enough, it's not gonna be about finishing speed only.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

46.33 average only for Van Emden

yep, but route seems rather technical:

 

[infeXio]

Kelderman 2 seconds better than Van Emden

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Spilak +25s

 

[Brullnux]

Špilak 25 down already

 

[Brullnux]

Apparently it might rain later on, which will have a significant impact on the race, especially for later starters like Porte and Bertie.

 

[johnymax]

Re:

Spilak +25s

I don't get it why he always sucks in these prologues and then kills it in ITTs later in the race. But like I said, he won't be a contender for the win here. The lost time at least means he'll ride aggressively in the next days.

 

[Vesica]

Van Emden going to sit on the hot seat for a long time I expect.

well I was wrong.

Rain coming up..

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Coppel en route.

 

[Pantani_lives]

A pleasant surprise would be if Luis León Sánchez could repeat his 2009 stunt and beat Contador, but I don't see it happening.

 

[Brullnux]

Copper fastest, 4 seconds

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Coppel can most likely win the prologue with this time, but lets see what Porte and Thomas can do.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Coppel can most likely win the prologue with this time, but lets see what Porte and Thomas can do.

Especially if it starts to rain.

Has it already started to rain?

 

[Carols]

Re:

WTF is this poll about...are these fan of Contador voting?

Madone is perfect for grinders like G, Dumoulin and others. No way Contador wins this race imho ( and if he does, it will be at least verrrry close )

I remember at least one post like this on the Strade Binanche thread directed towards those of us that selected Fabu .

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Boom about to hit the finish line.