2016 TDF Predictions

[Valv.Piti]

Cav as a Flop is a great shout btw!

What would actually classify as flopping for Cav? Surely no-one, not even him, thinks that he'll win a stage do they?

Apparently some do. They would be better off supporting EBH for the hillier days, he can outsprint anybody on a stage 4 finish on his day.

 

[manolo57]

Yellow Jersey: Quintana
Podium: Froome and Pinot
White Jersey: Barguil
Green Jersey: Sagan
Polka dot Jersey: Rodriguez
Team Classification: Movistar
Combativity Award: Pierre-Luc Périchon
Surprise of the Tour: Barguil
1st Yellow Jersey: Bouhanni
Story of the Tour: Quintana who thought beating Froome on Arcalis, lose 1'30 and bonus time because of Landa and Henao (yes, Henao). At the Ventoux, Quintana takes revenge on the british guy by winning with 1', whereas Contador loses 3' because of a bellyache. The day after, Pinot confirms his new TT skill, winning by 12" on Ion Izaguirre, and Quintana shows Froome that the new movistar TT bike is really efficient. At the beginning of the Alps, Froome is in yellow with 14" over Quintana, but lose his first place after the Megeve TT. The two last stages confirm the very good form of the colombian, who extends his leadership over Froomey.
Flop of the Tour: Porte and Thomas, both out of top 10

 

[Tonton]

Where do I sign ?

 

[blaxland]

Overall victory=Quintana
Mountains=Bardet
Green=Sagan(3xstages)
White=Zakarin
Froome to pull out of race after nasty crash on decent(loosing 10+ minutes)
Also Adam Yates to win a stage somewhere.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Yellow Jersey: QUINTANA
Podium: CONTADOR+FROOME
White Jersey: BARGUIL
Green Jersey: SAGAN
Polka dot Jersey: SEPULVEDA
Team Classification: MOVISTAR
Combativity Award: T De GENDT
Surprise of the Tour: RICHEZE
Breakthrough rider: ROSA
1st Yellow Jersey: KITTEL
Story of the Tour: SKY LOADED WITH DISTRACTIONS; TREK HELPING CONTADOR, PINARELLOS OVER TESTED FOR MECH DOPING AND VINO TRYING TO GET LANDA BACK...
Tour defining stage; 9th STAGE
Flop of the Tour: BMC

 

[Jspear]

Cav as a Flop is a great shout btw!

What would actually classify as flopping for Cav? Surely no-one, not even him, thinks that he'll win a stage do they?

It's a very slim chance, but he might manage to get a stage win....it's definitely not guaranteed though.

 

[SHAD0W93]

This is what I would love to happen;

Yellow Jersey: Contador
Podium: Van Garderen, Pinot
White Jersey: Barguil
Green Jersey: Cavendish
Polka dot Jersey: Kreuziger
Team Classification: Movistar
Combativity Award: Bardet
1st Yellow Jersey: Cavendish
Lanterne rouge: Froome
Story of the Tour: Froome fighting with Thomas over finishing last. Contador winning the TTs and Ventoux. Cav winning 6 flat stages and pulling a Hushovd and winning from break. Quintana to not notice Te Jay or Pinot going past him in GC and finish 4th.
Stage wins: Cav 8, Contador 3, Pinot 1, Kreuziger 1, Valverde 1



One can dream.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Cav as a Flop is a great shout btw!

What would actually classify as flopping for Cav? Surely no-one, not even him, thinks that he'll win a stage do they?

This is probably the first Tour where Cav has no pressure on him, his whole year is focused on that Olympic gold medal. If he wins a stage it would be a big achievement.

Yellow: Froome
Podium: Quintana and Aru
Polka: Bardet
Green: Sagan
White: Barguil
Combativity: Bardet
1st yellow jersey: Kittel
Flop of the Tour: Porte to do a Porte in a GT. Contador to show that age catches up with everyone and fail to make the podium. (Although I hope not as I backed him Each-way at the start of the year for this Tour)

 

[StryderHells]

Cav as a Flop is a great shout btw!

What would actually classify as flopping for Cav? Surely no-one, not even him, thinks that he'll win a stage do they?

It's a very slim chance, but he might manage to get a stage win....it's definitely not guaranteed though.

That's pretty much my thoughts on Cavendish, he knows how to position himself in a sprint so if he and Renshaw can get it all right on the day he can win a stage but it will be tough.

 

[Oliwright]

Categories

White Jersey: Bardet
Surprise of the Tour: Warren Barguil outshining Pinot and Bardet
:

?

Bardet is a few years further along his progression, I think Barguil could win a stage and shine in the mountains despite having lost too much time 1st week.

 

[Oliwright]

Re:

This is what I would love to happen;

Yellow Jersey: Contador
Podium: Van Garderen, Pinot
White Jersey: Barguil
Green Jersey: Cavendish
Polka dot Jersey: Kreuziger
Team Classification: Movistar
Combativity Award: Bardet
1st Yellow Jersey: Cavendish
Lanterne rouge: Froome
Story of the Tour: Froome fighting with Thomas over finishing last. Contador winning the TTs and Ventoux. Cav winning 6 flat stages and pulling a Hushovd and winning from break. Quintana to not notice Te Jay or Pinot going past him in GC and finish 4th.
Stage wins: Cav 8, Contador 3, Pinot 1, Kreuziger 1, Valverde 1



One can dream.

So looking forward to when Sky probably dominate and Froome, Landa and Thomas all ride into the top 10 , and you dreams will be dashed.

I understand not liking Sky because you are jealous of their success. Personally I'm not a big fan of Astana, but i don't wish they finish last. Just that they make it an exciting race and my choice to win just edges it.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Story of the Tour: SKY LOADED WITH DISTRACTIONS; TREK HELPING CONTADOR, PINARELLOS OVER TESTED FOR MECH DOPING AND VINO TRYING TO GET LANDA BACK...

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Yellow Jersey: Froome
Podium: Quintana and Aru
White Jersey: Barguil
Green Jersey: Sagan
Polka dot Jersey: Quintana
Team Classification: Movistar
Combativity Award: Voeckler
Surprise of the Tour: Dan Martin
Breakthrough rider: No one
1st Yellow Jersey: Kittel
Flop of the Tour: Contador

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Yellow Jersey: Froome
Podium: Quintana and Aru
White Jersey: Barguil
Green Jersey: Sagan
Polka dot Jersey: Quintana
Team Classification: Movistar
Combativity Award: Voeckler
Surprise of the Tour: Dan Martin
Breakthrough rider: No one
1st Yellow Jersey: Kittel
Flop of the Tour: Contador

Very realistic prediction, however, there always seems to be at least one 'breakthrough' rider

 

[PremierAndrew]

Cav as a Flop is a great shout btw!

What would actually classify as flopping for Cav? Surely no-one, not even him, thinks that he'll win a stage do they?

If Scheldeprijs is anything to go by, he should be able to win a stage. Long time ago yes, but he's still one of the top 3 sprinters on a pan flat stage, of which there are many, so to completely write him off would be a mistake.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

Yellow Jersey: Froome
Podium: Quintana and Aru
White Jersey: Barguil
Green Jersey: Sagan
Polka dot Jersey: Quintana
Team Classification: Movistar
Combativity Award: Voeckler
Surprise of the Tour: Dan Martin
Breakthrough rider: No one
1st Yellow Jersey: Kittel
Flop of the Tour: Contador

Very realistic prediction, however, there always seems to be at least one 'breakthrough' rider

You think so? Who do you think it has been the last three years? I guess it depends on how you look at it.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I can't really think of any, but i guess it depends on definition. Surprise seems like the more proper wording, actually, basically the same to a lesser extent.

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

You think so? Who do you think it has been the last three years? I guess it depends on how you look at it.

For 2015, I think we can count Vuillermoz for example. There was little to suggest in his previous results that he could finish 3rd on Mur de Huy and 1st Mur-de-Bretagne stage after straight fight against the biggest riders of the peloton.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

You think so? Who do you think it has been the last three years? I guess it depends on how you look at it.

For 2015, I think we can count Vuillermoz for example. There was little to suggest in his previous results that he could finish 3rd on Mur de Huy and 1st Mur-de-Bretagne stage after straight fight against the biggest riders of the peloton.

I don't know, he already finished 6th in FW that year. Anyway, I didn't mean to stir up a big discussion about this, I just think it's quite rare we get a rider who goes from more or less unknown to well-known in the eyes of the public (which is the closest I get to a definition of a breakthrough).

 

[bob.a.feet]

Categories

White Jersey: Bardet
Surprise of the Tour: Warren Barguil outshining Pinot and Bardet
:

?

Podium: Chris Froome, Richie Porte
Surprise of the Tour: Fabio Aru winning two stages and finishing third

???

Sorry I meant fourth.

 

[railxmig]

Breakthrough rider? I am the opposite of Nostradamus so let's crash someone's dreams and career. In this Tour i predict the breakthrough rider will be one of these guys: Patrick Konrad (rather easy pick), Adrien Petit (expecting a breakaway win in either Bern or Park des Oiseaux), Florian Vachon getting a podium spot in Cherbourg. I would call Arnold Jeannesson too but he had his breakthrough TdF in 2011. Sadly i couldn't find my man Raphael Valls but he had his breakthrough ride in 2010 Station de Rousses stage when he ended up 2nd after Chavanel.

 

[Singer01]

Re: Re:

You think so? Who do you think it has been the last three years? I guess it depends on how you look at it.

For 2015, I think we can count Vuillermoz for example. There was little to suggest in his previous results that he could finish 3rd on Mur de Huy and 1st Mur-de-Bretagne stage after straight fight against the biggest riders of the peloton.

I don't know, he already finished 6th in FW that year. Anyway, I didn't mean to stir up a big discussion about this, I just think it's quite rare we get a rider who goes from more or less unknown to well-known in the eyes of the public (which is the closest I get to a definition of a breakthrough).

does SK count at this years Giro, is that the sort of level of breakthrough we are talking about?

 

[May0maniac]

Breakthrough rider? I am the opposite of Nostradamus so let's crash someone's dreams and career. In this Tour i predict the breakthrough rider will be one of these guys: Patrick Konrad (rather easy pick), Adrien Petit (expecting a breakaway win in either Bern or Park des Oiseaux), Florian Vachon getting a podium spot in Cherbourg. I would call Arnold Jeannesson too but he had his breakthrough TdF in 2011. Sadly i couldn't find my man Raphael Valls but he had his breakthrough ride in 2010 Station de Rousses stage when he ended up 2nd after Chavanel.

I don't expect too much from Patrick Konrad, it's his first gt and riding your first gt is mostly a learning process (I still think that he'll get a top 10 on gc in the Vuelta in 1 or 2 years).
It's hard to pick a breakthrough rider, maybe Adam Yates will step up his game as a gt rider or stagehunter, maybe Sepúlveda will go stagehunting in the high mountains, who knows.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

You think so? Who do you think it has been the last three years? I guess it depends on how you look at it.

For 2015, I think we can count Vuillermoz for example. There was little to suggest in his previous results that he could finish 3rd on Mur de Huy and 1st Mur-de-Bretagne stage after straight fight against the biggest riders of the peloton.

I don't know, he already finished 6th in FW that year. Anyway, I didn't mean to stir up a big discussion about this, I just think it's quite rare we get a rider who goes from more or less unknown to well-known in the eyes of the public (which is the closest I get to a definition of a breakthrough).

does SK count at this years Giro, is that the sort of level of breakthrough we are talking about?

Well, that definitely qualifies, but the level of magnitude doesn't have to be that big.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

You think so? Who do you think it has been the last three years? I guess it depends on how you look at it.

For 2015, I think we can count Vuillermoz for example. There was little to suggest in his previous results that he could finish 3rd on Mur de Huy and 1st Mur-de-Bretagne stage after straight fight against the biggest riders of the peloton.

I don't know, he already finished 6th in FW that year. Anyway, I didn't mean to stir up a big discussion about this, I just think it's quite rare we get a rider who goes from more or less unknown to well-known in the eyes of the public (which is the closest I get to a definition of a breakthrough).

I think 2013 you could argue both Kittel and Quintana shot from being relatively unknown to the general public, to huge stars of the sport in the space of three weeks. Nothing like the rise of those two in the last two editions though.