2016 TDF Predictions

[vedrafjord]

So essentially 'breakthrough' is very dependent on how much the audience follows the sport. By the 2013 Tour, Quintana had won Basque Country and Route du Sud, plus the Catalunya mountains jersey, and most relevantly had won a stage at the Dauphiné the year before by outrunning the original Sky train going at full tilt from way out.

 

[MatParker117]

Yellow Jersey: Froome
Podium: Quintana, Bardet
White Jersey: Barguil
Green Jersey: Greipel
Polka dot Jersey: Caruso
Team Classification: Sky
Combativity Award: Voeckler
Surprise of the Tour: Bardet
Breakthrough rider: Barguill
1st Yellow Jersey: Kristoff
Flop of the Tour: Kittel

 

[DFA123]

Re:

So essentially 'breakthrough' is very dependent on how much the audience follows the sport. By the 2013 Tour, Quintana had won Basque Country and Route du Sud, plus the Catalunya mountains jersey, and most relevantly had won a stage at the Dauphiné the year before by outrunning the original Sky train going at full tilt from way out.

Yes, to an extent, but Quintana's 2013 Tour was a breakthrough by any standards. Winning Basque Country and a stage at the Dauphine is a far cry from finishing 2nd in the TdF - despite not even starting the race as leader - as well as picking up a stage win, the young riders jersey and the mountain classification. If that doesn't classify as a breakthrough - then I'm not sure anything does.

The earlier results showed his potential to be a future contender at a GT. The Tour de France result immediately elevated his status to arguably the best climber in the world and certainly one of the very best stage racers.

 

[Arredondo]

Yellow Jersey: Quintana
Podium: Froome, Contador
White Jersey: Meintjes
Green Jersey: Sagan (of course!)
Polka dot Jersey: Purito (of course!)
Team Classification: Who cares. Ow right, Movistar then.
Combativity Award: Zubeldia
Surprise of the Tour: Bardet
Breakthrough rider: Meintjes, Pantano, Petit
1st Yellow Jersey: Cav
Flop of the Tour: Van Garderen, Zakarin, Kristoff, Kreuziger, Alaphilippe, Tony Martin, Costa

 

[pink_jersey]

Yellow Jersey: Froome
Podium: Quintana, Contador
White Jersey: Barguil
Green Jersey: Sagan
Polka dot Jersey: Purito
Team Classification: Movistar
Combativity Award: Bardet
Breakthrough rider: Groenewegen
Surprise of the Tour: Bardet
1st Yellow Jersey: Manx Missile
Flop of the Tour: Kristoff(like all year), Alaphilippe(if he's stupid enough to go for GC), Dan Martin(see Alapphilippe), Rui Costa(see Alaphilippe)

 

[Põhja Konn]

Yellow: Quintana, change of an era in stage racing is officially taking place

Rest of the podium: Pinot and Aru, in that order

White: Barguil

King of the mountains: Nibali - is having some fun, while preparing for Olympics

Green: Greipel

Story of the Tour: New generation taking over the baton.

Froome takes the early iniative, but doesn't give out a beatdown similar to last year. Quintana lays down the marker on Ventoux, then just loses the jersey to Froome next day in the TT, but remains very close. He decides the race with consecutive stage wins on Emosson and MTT. Three comprehensive beatings together with hostile roadside reception demoralises Froome who finally cracks completely on the slopes of Mont Blanc the next day.

Contador is always near, but never able to take charge of the race and loses between 10 to 40 seconds to Nairo in every important mountain stage. So he starts taking risks when time is running out, and against an opponent who is stronger individually and has a better team to defend him, the result is predictable - Contador cracks himself and ends up outside the podium.

Pinot comes of age. Using his TT-ing ability and showing the highest consistent level of anyone outside the big three, he is there to take advantage after two of those are cracked by Quintana. Aru is close to Pinot, but loses out due to poorer TT and lack of consistency. Can go too deep too often due to his impulsive nature. Final gap to Frenchman is somewhere between 30 seconds to minute. Nevertheless, podium in his debut Tour is still a success.

 

[yetanothergreenworld]

Yellow: Zubeldia

Green: Zubeldia

Polka-Dots: Zubeldia

White: Zubeldia (because you underestimate his ninja chops at your own peril)

 

[HelloDolly]

Yellow: Zubeldia

Green: Zubeldia

Polka-Dots: Zubeldia

White: Zubeldia (because you underestimate his ninja chops at your own peril)

He is going for the Mnt Ventoux stage

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yellow: Quintana, change of an era in stage racing is officially taking place

Rest of the podium: Pinot and Aru, in that order

White: Barguil

King of the mountains: Nibali - is having some fun, while preparing for Olympics

Green: Greipel

Story of the Tour: New generation taking over the baton.

Froome takes the early iniative, but doesn't give out a beatdown similar to last year. Quintana lays down the marker on Ventoux, then just loses the jersey to Froome next day in the TT, but remains very close. He decides the race with consecutive stage wins on Emosson and MTT. Three comprehensive beatings together with hostile roadside reception demoralises Froome who finally cracks completely on the slopes of Mont Blanc the next day.

Contador is always near, but never able to take charge of the race and loses between 10 to 40 seconds to Nairo in every important mountain stage. So he starts taking risks when time is running out, and against an opponent who is stronger individually and has a better team to defend him, the result is predictable - Contador cracks himself and ends up outside the podium.

Pinot comes of age. Using his TT-ing ability and showing the highest consistent level of anyone outside the big three, he is there to take advantage after two of those are cracked by Quintana. Aru is close to Pinot, but loses out due to poorer TT and lack of consistency. Can go too deep too often due to his impulsive nature. Final gap to Frenchman is somewhere between 30 seconds to minute. Nevertheless, podium in his debut Tour is still a success.

That sounds like a super fun Tour, I like that write up. But to crack on Mont Blanc, you have to have a spectacularly bad day.

 

[Tonton]

I like that story line, I love the results . Man if it could come true, I'd take a jacuzzi bath full of Champagne, with cigar, no less .

 

[Escarabajo]

Cracking on Mont Blanc would be hard because is short.

Maybe stage 15 or 17 are more suited for cracking.

 

[BlurryVII]

Yellow Jersey: Contador
Podium: Quintana - Aru
White Jersey: Bardet
Green Jersey: Sagan
Polka dot Jersey: Contador or Quintana
Team Classification: Astana or Movistar
Combativity Award: Chavanel
Surprise of the Tour: Dan Martin
Breakthrough rider: Romain Sicard
1st Yellow Jersey: Kristoff
Story of the Tour: Contador vs Quintana duel
Tour defining stage: Stage 12 - Ventoux
Flop of the Tour: Porte, Froome and Cavendish

 

[SHAD0W93]

Re: Re:

This is what I would love to happen;

Yellow Jersey: Contador
Podium: Van Garderen, Pinot
White Jersey: Barguil
Green Jersey: Cavendish
Polka dot Jersey: Kreuziger
Team Classification: Movistar
Combativity Award: Bardet
1st Yellow Jersey: Cavendish
Lanterne rouge: Froome
Story of the Tour: Froome fighting with Thomas over finishing last. Contador winning the TTs and Ventoux. Cav winning 6 flat stages and pulling a Hushovd and winning from break. Quintana to not notice Te Jay or Pinot going past him in GC and finish 4th.
Stage wins: Cav 8, Contador 3, Pinot 1, Kreuziger 1, Valverde 1



One can dream.

So looking forward to when Sky probably dominate and Froome, Landa and Thomas all ride into the top 10 , and you dreams will be dashed.

I understand not liking Sky because you are jealous of their success. Personally I'm not a big fan of Astana, but i don't wish they finish last. Just that they make it an exciting race and my choice to win just edges it.

I don't have a problem with Landa. I just don't like Froome or Thomas. Plus Froome is going for history as the 1st person to win the tour then the following tour finishing last.

 

[dacooley]

Year, sometimes riders are willing to grow, develop and win. Thats the problem

 

[Jancouver]

Yellow: Zubeldia

Green: Zubeldia

Polka-Dots: Zubeldia

White: Zubeldia (because you underestimate his ninja chops at your own peril)

What is for sure, Zubeldia will not finish any stage in the top 10, yet, somehow, he will make the overall GC Top10

 

[Pantani_lives]

Pessimistic prediction:
Froome takes yellow with one attack on Arcalis or Ventoux, extends his lead in the flat time trial. The black and blue train (Chattanoogoo Choo Choo) controls the rest of the race. Quintana crashes out. Aru loses time in a transitional stage. Contador's attacks are made pointless by Henao, Landa and Thomas. Attacks by Bardet, Pinot and Barguil are controlled by BMC, defending a podium place for Porte or Van Garderen, so Sky doesn't have to work that much. Froome is never isolated from his teammates. There is no suspense for yellow in the last nine days.

Optimistic prediction:
Froome takes yellow with one attack on Arcalis or Ventoux, extends his lead in the flat time trial. The black and blue train seems to have everything under control, until Quintana and Contador attack together on the penultimate climb in the stage to Finhaut Émosson. The Chattanoogoo Choo Choo derails, Froome collapses further in the next two stages, leading to a second Brexit. Quintana wins the Tour, Contador finishes second with a stage win and the polka dots. Bardet steals the third podium spot from Porte after a long range attack in the stage to Morzine. Aru finishes fifth and wins on the Mont Blanc.

 

[Miburo]

Quintana is the big favorite imo.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re:

Pessimistic prediction:
Froome takes yellow with one attack on Arcalis or Ventoux, extends his lead in the flat time trial. The black and blue train (Chattanoogoo Choo Choo) controls the rest of the race. Quintana crashes out. Aru loses time in a transitional stage. Contador's attacks are made pointless by Henao, Landa and Thomas. Attacks by Bardet, Pinot and Barguil are controlled by BMC, defending a podium place for Porte or Van Garderen, so Sky doesn't have to work that much. Froome is never isolated from his teammates. There is no suspense for yellow in the last nine days.

Optimistic prediction:
Froome takes yellow with one attack on Arcalis or Ventoux, extends his lead in the flat time trial. The black and blue train seems to have everything under control, until Quintana and Contador attack together on the penultimate climb in the stage to Finhaut Émosson. The Chattanoogoo Choo Choo derails, Froome collapses further in the next two stages, leading to a second Brexit. Quintana wins the Tour, Contador finishes second with a stage win and the polka dots. Bardet steals the third podium spot from Porte after a long range attack in the stage to Morzine. Aru finishes fifth and wins on the Mont Blanc.

third Brexit leaving the football europe with their "soccer" was the second one

 

[Oliwright]

Re:

Yellow Jersey: Contador
Podium: Quintana - Aru
White Jersey: Bardet
Green Jersey: Sagan
Polka dot Jersey: Contador or Quintana
Team Classification: Astana or Movistar
Combativity Award: Chavanel
Surprise of the Tour: Dan Martin
Breakthrough rider: Romain Sicard
1st Yellow Jersey: Kristoff
Story of the Tour: Contador vs Quintana duel
Tour defining stage: Stage 12 - Ventoux
Flop of the Tour: Porte, Froome and Cavendish

English speaking cycling fan

 

[Oliwright]

Even as a Froome fan i expect him to struggle with Quintana this year. But people didn't expect him to win last year. Those expecting him not to be on the podium are stupid imo. Yes he has crashed out of GTs before but so has Quintana and Froome is by common consensus a better bike handler than him. But if he doesn't crash Froome has been the best rider in the last 4 Tours. I understand people don't like Sky winning but I just find it funny, how many wish bad for them. Let's hope for and I predict a good race.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Even as a Froome fan i expect him to struggle with Quintana this year. But people didn't expect him to win last year. Those expecting him not to be on the podium are stupid imo. Yes he has crashed out of GTs before but so has Quintana and Froome is by common consensus a better bike handler than him. But if he doesn't crash Froome has been the best rider in the last 4 Tours. I understand people don't like Sky winning but I just find it funny, how many wish bad for them. Let's hope for and I predict a good race.

Where do you get stuff like this from

 

[Oliwright]

Even as a Froome fan i expect him to struggle with Quintana this year. But people didn't expect him to win last year. Those expecting him not to be on the podium are stupid imo. Yes he has crashed out of GTs before but so has Quintana and Froome is by common consensus a better bike handler than him. But if he doesn't crash Froome has been the best rider in the last 4 Tours. I understand people don't like Sky winning but I just find it funny, how many wish bad for them. Let's hope for and I predict a good race.

Where do you get stuff like this from

Quintana crashed out of his own fault in the 2014 Vuelta on a descent in a TT, Froome crashed at the Tour after people crashed in front of him on stage 4, and on stage 5 he could hold the bike properly because of that. Also in 2015 Route du Sud Contador dropped Quintana on a descent, he hasn't ever dropped Froome.
But u still think Quintana is a better bike handler?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Even as a Froome fan i expect him to struggle with Quintana this year. But people didn't expect him to win last year. Those expecting him not to be on the podium are stupid imo. Yes he has crashed out of GTs before but so has Quintana and Froome is by common consensus a better bike handler than him. But if he doesn't crash Froome has been the best rider in the last 4 Tours. I understand people don't like Sky winning but I just find it funny, how many wish bad for them. Let's hope for and I predict a good race.

Where do you get stuff like this from

Quintana crashed out of his own fault in the 2014 Vuelta on a descent in a TT, Froome crashed at the Tour after people crashed in front of him on stage 4, and on stage 5 he could hold the bike properly because of that. Also in 2015 Route du Sud Contador dropped Quintana on a descent, he hasn't ever dropped Froome.
But u still think Quintana is a better bike handler?

That is hardly by common consensus.
I don't think Quintana is an amazing bike handler but I don't have a very high opinion of Froome's bike handling skills either. Froome has suffered several silly crashes like at the Vuelta when he crashed in km 0 (I think) and also at the 2014 Dauphiné.
I don't think Route du sud can be used as an argument against Quintana's bikehandling skills, Contador dropped him there but when has he ever been able to do that in a GT?

 

[Ramon Koran]

Even as a Froome fan i expect him to struggle with Quintana this year. But people didn't expect him to win last year. Those expecting him not to be on the podium are stupid imo. Yes he has crashed out of GTs before but so has Quintana and Froome is by common consensus a better bike handler than him. But if he doesn't crash Froome has been the best rider in the last 4 Tours. I understand people don't like Sky winning but I just find it funny, how many wish bad for them. Let's hope for and I predict a good race.

Where do you get stuff like this from

Froome is probably the best bike handler among gt contenders, did you see him on the cobbles and in the descents last year? Imo only sagan is a better bike handler in the peleton.

 

[Oliwright]

Even as a Froome fan i expect him to struggle with Quintana this year. But people didn't expect him to win last year. Those expecting him not to be on the podium are stupid imo. Yes he has crashed out of GTs before but so has Quintana and Froome is by common consensus a better bike handler than him. But if he doesn't crash Froome has been the best rider in the last 4 Tours. I understand people don't like Sky winning but I just find it funny, how many wish bad for them. Let's hope for and I predict a good race.

Where do you get stuff like this from

Quintana crashed out of his own fault in the 2014 Vuelta on a descent in a TT, Froome crashed at the Tour after people crashed in front of him on stage 4, and on stage 5 he could hold the bike properly because of that. Also in 2015 Route du Sud Contador dropped Quintana on a descent, he hasn't ever dropped Froome.
But u still think Quintana is a better bike handler?

That is hardly by common consensus.
I don't think Quintana is an amazing bike handler but I don't have a very high opinion of Froome's bike handling skills either. Froome has suffered several silly crashes like at the Vuelta when he crashed in km 0 (I think) and also at the 2014 Dauphiné.
I don't think Route du sud can be used as an argument against Quintana's bikehandling skills, Contador dropped him there but when has he ever been able to do that in a GT?

The dauphine crash no one knows what caused it, the cameras never saw the fall just the after shot. I'm not saying Froome doesn't crash, just that he's a better bike handler than Quintana. No one has ever attacked Quintana on a decent. Where as plenty have attacked Froome on descents.