2016 TdF, Stage 11: Carcassonne → Montpellier (163km)

[vedrafjord]

Re:

The energy talk is nonsense because he didn't go alone. It was definitely worth it because it was such a short distance on flat.
If Froome gets dropped by Quintana or anyone then it is definitely not because of this. But it will be hard to drop him considering his strength today but Sagan played a big role in it too.

Exactly - a solo attack on the limit for 10 mins will take a lot more out of you than doing up and overs (does anybody outside Ireland call them that by the way?) where you repeatedly take a pull and then shelter to recover.

 

[hrotha]

Re: Re:

blaming quintana for not being positioned well or being able to respond on this kind of stage is stupis as f***,the guy is 57 kilograms with bicycle...in the end he was in the bunch,which is about as good as i would expect from him

Completely correct. His mistake is not taking potential time loss on stages like this into account.

That Froome can gain time like he did today doesn't materially affect what Quintana's best strategy is.

Of course it does. Quintana's strategy relies on his ability to take back time at the minimum risk, and that depends entirely on just how much time he actually needs to take back.

 

[classicomano]

Someone give Marcel some tissues.

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Poor baby . .. . .

Marcel Kittel ‏@marcelkittel · 2m2 minutes ago

The biggest bike race wants more safety & sends their riders in the smallest villages in South of France with Mistral being full on...

 

[perico]

Re:

We should really congratulate Froome. He's the most well rounded Tour winner since Armstrong

He has earned my admiration, if not adulation. He's a great rider. I won't be disappointed to see him win his third this year. He's ridden like a champion this far. It reminded me of Indurain in 1994 or 1995 with Bruyneel.

 

[vedrafjord]

Re:

blaming quintana for not being positioned well or being able to respond on this kind of stage is stupis as f***,the guy is 57 kilograms with bicycle...in the end he was in the bunch,which is about as good as i would expect from him

It's his team who are to blame, their doms shouldn't have let him out of their sight.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

blaming quintana for not being positioned well or being able to respond on this kind of stage is stupis as f***,the guy is 57 kilograms with bicycle...in the end he was in the bunch,which is about as good as i would expect from him

Completely correct. His mistake is not taking potential time loss on stages like this into account.

That Froome can gain time like he did today doesn't materially affect what Quintana's best strategy is.

Of course it does. Quintana's strategy relies on his ability to take back time at the minimum risk, and that depends entirely on just how much time he actually needs to take back.

Agreed entirely. 35 seconds gap makes a material difference to Quintana's chances of beating Froome. It means that, leaving aside any possible further losses in the TT, Quintana may now have to drop him more than once. It could easily mean that one "successful" attack is used up merely undoing the damage done by these small time losses.

 

[MacBAir]

Re:

Poor baby . .. . .

Marcel Kittel ‏@marcelkittel · 2m2 minutes ago

The biggest bike race wants more safety & sends their riders in the smallest villages in South of France with Mistral being full on...

Here it is: The wheelsucker.

 

[pitchnduel]

When, if ever, has the rider wearing the red number from the day before won the day's stage prior to Sagan today?

(Not rhetorical, I'd actually like to know)

 

[burning]

Re:

Someone give Marcel some tissues.

ASO should throw him out of the race

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

blaming quintana for not being positioned well or being able to respond on this kind of stage is stupis as f***,the guy is 57 kilograms with bicycle...in the end he was in the bunch,which is about as good as i would expect from him

It's his team who are to blame, their doms shouldn't have let him out of their sight.

They only brought one big lump with them, a gamble that could easily have resulted in disaster today. They were lucky to only lose 12 seconds.

 

[Andro]

Re:

So, when Cav had a puncture he screamed like he was getting burned alive. Did anyone tell him that he definitely lost the green jersey today? When Cav is in heaven and he needs to be brought back down to earth, things usually get tough. Why didn't Boasson Hagen gave him his bike/stopped?

That was not really an option. There were no cars behind the peloton, since all the team cars were further back behind the other groups. If EBH had to stop and give Cavendish his bike, Cav would probably end up 30 seconds behind the peloton and having to regain speed from 0. No chance he closes that gap with no cortege of cars.

Once Cavendish punctured, his stage was over. EBH might as well stay in the peloton and give the sprint a go.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

Someone give Marcel some tissues.

ASO should throw him out of the race

Never mind the ASO, Marcel should be careful about badmouthing racing in the wind on Etixx. Lefevere will have him taken behind the team bus and shot.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Cry me a river, Marcel.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Someone give Marcel some tissues.

Absolutely. I mean, does the ASO seriously think we want to see action

 

[doperhopper]

Re: Re:

blaming quintana for not being positioned well or being able to respond on this kind of stage is stupis as f***,the guy is 57 kilograms with bicycle...in the end he was in the bunch,which is about as good as i would expect from him

Completely correct. His mistake is not taking potential time loss on stages like this into account.

That Froome can gain time like he did today doesn't materially affect what Quintana's best strategy is.

Of course it does. Quintana's strategy relies on his ability to take back time at the minimum risk, and that depends entirely on just how much time he actually needs to take back.

well, if they manage to crack Vroom on Ramaz (last mountain stage) and gain massive time on subsequent Joux Plane there will be tons of comments about their smart waiting game, playing to their strengths, while Sky will be bashed for marginal stupidity of accumulating fatigue for few little seconds (and pointing out they should be well aware of that since at least last year).

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

Sagan is officialy God and Froome is a TOP 5 racer in the pro peloton...We witnessed something special...

Some would argue Froome is top-2, me included, but Sagan is at least one above the rest. What a racer.

its very hard to put vanmarcke,nibali,contador,froome in order for me....Sagan is clear no.1 of course

I would be a Froome fan if he was not racing for that boring Sky, thats for sure

Not sure if serious? I like the guy, but what's he doing listed in that kind of company? He's won about two races in 10 years.

I think that with Sagan he is the guy who attacks most often in classics iirc (and has serious portion of bad luck )


Now onto Ventoux!!!

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

Of course it does. Quintana's strategy relies on his ability to take back time at the minimum risk, and that depends entirely on just how much time he actually needs to take back.

Yeah, dumb strategy, attempting to take time only when it's likely to actually happen.

Props to Sagan and Froome, both of them really laid it on the line today, it made for a great show.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

well, if they manage to crack Vroom on Ramaz (last mountain stage) and gain massive time on subsequent Joux Plane there will be tons of comments about their smart waiting game, playing to their strengths, while Sky will be bashed for marginal stupidity of accumulating fatigue for few little seconds (and pointing out they should be well aware of that since at least last year).

Ramaz is out:

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

well, if they manage to crack Vroom on Ramaz (last mountain stage) and gain massive time on subsequent Joux Plane there will be tons of comments about their smart waiting game, playing to their strengths, while Sky will be bashed for marginal stupidity of accumulating fatigue for few little seconds (and pointing out they should be well aware of that since at least last year).

Ramaz is out:

It isn't confirmed tho, 99% sure.
But what a horrible profile.

 

[vedrafjord]

That's the Étape du Tour profile... have you a link that says it's closed for the race?

 

[CheckMyPecs]

When will they make the final decision on Ramaz?

 

[Andro]

Man that stage looks so weak without Ramaz. It's the last mountain stage of the race - it's supposed to be one of the most difficult.

Hopefully Ramaz stays in the race.

 

[hulkhogansknees]

Damn, what a stage. Sagan is a champion.
I never liked Froome at all, but with performances like today, I am starting to warm up to him a bit.
And, honestly, I am probably quite negatively biased towards him since I am a big admirer of Alberto Contador and a lot of my dislike stems from Froome being my big cycling hero's rival. I still think he looks *** on a bike and I hate Team Sky but his racing is very entertaining, I must say.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

Yeah, dumb strategy, attempting to take time only when it's likely to actually happen.

It is too early to tell how clever Quintana's strategy is. After all, because he hasn't made any attempt to attack whatsoever, we don't have any idea if he will be able to bury Froome with one or two big attacks in the Alps. Maybe he will be able to and his conservatism will seem wise. Maybe he won't and it will seem stupid.

But it's worth noting that what your main rival is doing changes your own risk/reward calculations or at least it should. At this point, Froome has taken a 35 second lead with various minor attacks before we've reached a TT. Those 35 seconds are not a lot, but they could well be enough to use up the time Quintana might make dropping him in the mountains once. If Quintana turns out to be better in the mountains but not enormously better, that means that he might need not just an extra attack but an extra successful attack to win.