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2016 TdF, Stage 16: Moirans-en-Montagne → Bern (209km)

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Savant12 said:
Cancellara to neutralize-ish the stage. In the final 20km, he will tell the peleton that he's just going off the front to chat with some friends but instead he'll disappear down the road and solo it home.

You beat me to it.

Only I was thinking that Fabian would get himself into prime position to win the stage, only to have some incident non related to him happen on the cobblestones and result in the nightmare N word. Except that on this occasion it is the L word, and there is peace on the cycling forum. There haven't been this many smiles seen around here since Lance received his comeuppance :D
 
Re:

El Pistolero said:
It's telling that this stage is more interesting for us than full blown mountain stages these days. Probably more chance for the GC to split up here than in a mountain stage lol.

Well medium mountain stages have been the most entertaining stages for several years now in all GTs, including ones where Sky isn't dominating.

2015 Giro stage 4:
t04_spezia_alt_670.jpg


2014 Tour stage 2:
stage_02_profile_670.jpg


2016 Giro stage 4:
t04_praiaam_alt_670.jpg


It's easier to do these stages in Italy and Spain, which have hills around the whole country, vs France which has large flat areas. It's also likely that the route of this year's Tour, with lots of very flat stages, lots of big mountains, and not much in between, was designed to a) help Quintana beat Froome and b) make it harder for Sagan to run away with the green jersey. Since that failed miserably on both counts, it's possible they'll go the other way next year. It very much depends on which towns are willing to pay to host stages, but if you look in the Race Design thread, people have made great hard-to-control stages in the Jura, Vosges, Massif Central etc. Fingers crossed.
 
If I'm looking at it corerctly on google maps the corner at the top of the cobbles just before 2km to go is extremely tight.

Agree with the comparison with Richmond.

Sagan and Canc will definately feature not sure if they will win though. Quintana will probably lose a few more seconds.
 
Here's an example of excessively conservative racing philosophy. According to Sean Yates this morning, Tinkoff would prefer a breakaway succeed, because the risk of Cav getting points outweighs the potential of Sagan winning another stage. Even though this would be a great opportunity for Sagan and the risk of losing the green jersey due to a bunch sprint here is practically nonexistent.
 
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OK, 4 more guys coming... gets better, few more please... Looks like everyone expects Katusha will chase everything for Kristoff (maybe also Orica, Giant etc.).

Concerning S. Yates - did Tinkoff do a real recon? From the comments it looks like the climb before the finish will be way too much for Cav/Kittel if raced hard (so no risk for Sagan to lose points, he can only gain).

Panzer pullig all himself, saving Julian for later, why don't they wait for the chasers? Maybe they don't want them... but they are only 1:30 back.