2016 TdF, Stage 17: Bern → Finhaut-Emosson (185km)

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Astana will determine if there are time gaps - They have strong climbers and put the GC guys under pressure in stage 15 - They ride at a fast tempo again on the second last climb and gaps may appear.

They also tend to go very strongly post-rest day towards the end of tours. I expect Aru to launch his bid for the podium tomorrow. Hopefully Movistar and the other teams will let him go if he attacks, and not do Sky's job for them - but I wouldn't count on it.

I suspect Astana have held off because Aru is not in form - Think tomorrow will be a do or die effort by Aru - He's the type of rider who will gamble on getting into the top 5 even if he blows up - Which could cause grief for some GC guys.

 

[WillemS]

Well, it's the third week, so surely there's a third-week Astana recovery peak for Aru?

 

[Cookster15]

How this stage is raced all depends if Sky can keep up the pressure which I am afraid looks increasingly inevitable. After a rest day I will favour Froome to win this stage. What will be interesting will be the fight for the minor places. Who can hold the Sky / Froome wheels the longest or can Movistar or Astana do the unexpected? But I doubt that with their two strongest supporting climbers Valverde and Nibali having the Giro in their legs already. This is week 3 now.

Unfortunately the MTT also favours Sky as that's a day where their super climbing Doms like Landa, Poels, Henao, Thomas, and Nieve can take it relatively easy to recover for the finale of Mont Blanc and Morzine. Seriously when you read through those names supporting Froome it is even scarier

 

[Poursuivant]

Quintana will attack on Forclaz.

 

[SeriousSam]

Aru may well launch a blistering attack to ride onto the podium. Quintana and Porte will want to do the same.

Will be interesting to see whether Mollema and Yates can hang on.

 

[Miburo]

The real battle finally begins!

For the podiums of course, since arcalis stage that was already obvious

 

[Poursuivant]

I think the breakaway will take this again. Movistar will probably put a couple in the break like they have been doing, and Sky will see that and let them get a big gap so as to neutralise their threat and not burn up their doms. Only way I see this being a GC winner is if Froome feels great or if Astana drill it.

 

[The Chicken]

Ah, stage 17, otherwise known as Landis Day.

Someone will do a Landis, hopefully it will be Porte

 

[DFA123]

Aru may well launch a blistering attack to ride onto the podium. Quintana and Porte will want to do the same.

Will be interesting to see whether Mollema and Yates can hang on.

It still all depends on Sky though. If Landa, Poels, Nieve and Henao are sitting at the front, taking it in turns to go at 6w/kg - then it doesn't really make a difference what the others do. Aru might try a Contador style long range escape, but it won't work against a train of high class climbers each riding just above threshold - just as it doesn't work for Contador.

They'll definitely chase down Valverde, Quintana and Aru, but I guess they might give Porte a bit of rope. Re-unite the gang on the podium.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Obviously hoping for Quintana, but mostly rooting for whoever decides to take the chase up. Dont wanna see this stage go to a break.

 

[roundabout]

Re:

Quintana will attack on Forclaz.

Way too early

 

[Arredondo]

1. Froome
2. Porte + 45s
3. Aru + 1m03s
4. Purito st
5. Mollema + 1m23s
6. Quintana + 1m40s
7. Yates 1m50s
8. Meintjes + 2m30s
9. Bardet st
10. Zakarin + 2m54s

17. Tejay + 6m12s

 

[simulcop]

This is the stage for Quintana. If he want to win this tour, there is no tomorrow, he must start cutting down time on Froom on this stage.

Look what i found on starva about the last part of this climb, look who have the fastest time:

https://www.strava.com/segments/4550486

 

[Cookster15]

Re:

This is the stage for Quintana. If he want to win this tour, there is no tomorrow, he must start cutting down time on Froom on this stage.

Look what i found on starva about the last part of this climb, look who have the fastest time:

https://www.strava.com/segments/4550486

That time looks a bit soft. VAM is also low for a 9% average gradient over less than 6km. Sub 21 minutes Wednesday with the Sky train to snuff out Movistar / Quintana and Astana / Aru. It will be interesting watching how the fight for minor podium places develops. Hopefully Porte can hang in there.

 

[Laplaz]

Not expecting much. But still i have a little bit hope in Astana...

 

[Cookster15]

Re:

If Rosa, Nibali and Kangert feel any good and are capable of pacing the peloton (fast tempo) in the penultimate climb then Aru will do something.

I can't see Rosa, Nibali and Kangert being able to do much against the combined might of Landa, Poels, Henao, Thomas, and Nieve. Aru will be powerless - even if he did have the form which I doubt.

 

[52520Andrew]

No excuse for the GC riders to take today off. Scared of an Ax 3 Domaines though. If Quintana wants to win the Tour, it starts here.

 

[therhodeo]

They need to send Piti early.

 

[Rollthedice]

Aru may well launch a blistering attack to ride onto the podium. Quintana and Porte will want to do the same.

Will be interesting to see whether Mollema and Yates can hang on.

Porte will never attack Froome and the rest will be brought back by the Sky train just in case, which leaves only one logical outcome on the last kms of the last climb, the inevitable thermonucular turbo washing machine egg beater attack.

 

[SeriousSam]

I do think we'll see some action involving Quintana, Porte, Aru, Mollema and Yates because the battle for 2nd and 3rd is still wide open.

Whether this action will take place with the Dawg a minute up the road or whether he'll be content just following is anyone's guess, but the battle for the yellow jersey is over anyway.

 

[doperhopper]

One has to realize that Emosson stage comes after a rest day and todays easy stage for SkyTrain. No way they will crack completely already on Forclaz, and whoever will be the last man can do half of the last climb. However, what others can do (mainly Astana and Movistar) is to try to cook them so much that even after another rest day (MTT is a rest day for the train) they will fall apart under Mt. Blanc, and most importantly, on Ramaz/Joux Plane.

And the only way is to absolutely bomb the Forclaz, get whatever small gap they can with as many guys as they can (creating some chaos in the run up to the climb would help too) and burn the doms one by one, does not matter, they won't need them anymore. Vroom will rely on the train and will never chase anyone himself before the last climb. The idea is to put the train under the pressure and into the red for as long as possible. Most probably they will chase them down anyway, but at a huge cost. Of course, few doms in the break strategically waiting on Forclaz would make the plan perfect.

I know, easier said than done, but this is the only way. Collaborating to destroy the train.

Sadly, the reality will be looking at each other and dumb fight for podium rather than for SkyFall.

 

[Gigs_98]

Movistar has to try something. If Quintana doesnt gain time tomorrow its lost. I know Quintana is the leader but they need to use Piti. He is still in a dangerous gc position so he might be the only domestique of the peloton capable of destroying the sky train. And if Quintana is so bad that he needs Valverde to pace him all hope is lost for him anyway and Valverde should still attack.
Besides that Astana might try something but 'd rather expect hours of sky at the front. Does anyone know what the weather will be like? Rain could maybe mane the stage more interesting.

 

[Tonton]

Ready for the wrong prediction of the day, that looks possible, but with my luck will never happen ?

Don Alejandro takes off with 2km left in the Forclaz, Sky forces the tempo, Quintana attacks with 800m left. Sky explodes but does enough.Froome, Aru, Porte, and Bardet catch Quintana at the top. After the descent, two more riders join the select group: TJVG may be one of them. I hope that Mollema is there too.

The final climb begins with Don Alejandro off the saddle, with his usual style, some 45" ahead. Froome doesn't make the pace, hoping for a slow pace and that his boys will come back. The other guys make the pace, until the first real attack (Aru or Bardet), and then it's a free for all. Quintana stays with Froome, then puts on an attack. He catches up to Valverde with 4km to go, they ride together for one kilometer, then he goes. In '15 AdH fashion, Valverde clings on to one of the pursuers wheel, Froome, but having given so much,he fades in the final 1500m.

1. Quintana
2. Froome at 55"
3. Aru at 1'32"
4. Bardet st
5. Valverde st
6. Porte at 1'39"
7. Mollema at 1'56"
...
10. TJVG at 2'52"
...
18. Zubeldia at 4'01"

Guaranteed .

 

[Bardamu]

Ready for the wrong prediction of the day, that looks possible, but with my luck will never happen ?

Don Alejandro takes off with 2km left in the Forclaz, Sky forces the tempo, Quintana attacks with 800m left. Sky explodes but does enough.Froome, Aru, Porte, and Bardet catch Quintana at the top. After the descent, two more riders join the select group: TJVG may be one of them. I hope that Mollema is there too.

The final climb begins with Don Alejandro off the saddle, with his usual style, some 45" ahead. Froome doesn't make the pace, hoping for a slow pace and that his boys will come back. The other guys make the pace, until the first real attack (Aru or Bardet), and then it's a free for all. Quintana stays with Froome, then puts on an attack. He catches up to Valverde with 4km to go, they ride together for one kilometer, then he goes. In '15 AdH fashion, Valverde clings on to one of the pursuers wheel, Froome, but having given so much,he fades in the final 1500m.

1. Quintana
2. Froome at 55"
3. Aru at 1'32"
4. Bardet st
5. Valverde st
6. Porte at 1'39"
7. Mollema at 1'56"
...
10. TJVG at 2'52"
...
18. Zubeldia at 4'01"

Guaranteed .

This would be so cool.

 

[Escarabajo]

Ready for the wrong prediction of the day, that looks possible, but with my luck will never happen ?

Don Alejandro takes off with 2km left in the Forclaz, Sky forces the tempo, Quintana attacks with 800m left. Sky explodes but does enough.Froome, Aru, Porte, and Bardet catch Quintana at the top. After the descent, two more riders join the select group: TJVG may be one of them. I hope that Mollema is there too.

The final climb begins with Don Alejandro off the saddle, with his usual style, some 45" ahead. Froome doesn't make the pace, hoping for a slow pace and that his boys will come back. The other guys make the pace, until the first real attack (Aru or Bardet), and then it's a free for all. Quintana stays with Froome, then puts on an attack. He catches up to Valverde with 4km to go, they ride together for one kilometer, then he goes. In '15 AdH fashion, Valverde clings on to one of the pursuers wheel, Froome, but having given so much,he fades in the final 1500m.

1. Quintana
2. Froome at 55"
3. Aru at 1'32"
4. Bardet st
5. Valverde st
6. Porte at 1'39"
7. Mollema at 1'56"
...
10. TJVG at 2'52"
...
18. Zubeldia at 4'01"

Guaranteed .

If Froome arrives behind Quintana is because he is having a bad day and he will lose more time than this. Otherwise he wins!