2016 TdF, Stage 17: Bern → Finhaut-Emosson (185km)

[Bushman]

Re: Re:

I honestly do not see how Quintana could beat Froome, in two days he can not return to the 2015 and give a minute to all. especially since there are at least 3-4 riders in better shape than him

I can't see how he can beat Froome either at the moment, but I don't believe there are 3-4 riders in better shape than him. He's been focused the whole tour on trying to get at Sky and put Froome under pressure, he's wasted energy doing this and has been passive at other times when Sky have looked strong.

If he abandons this plan and goes for second instead, I think he'll put time into Yates and Mollema easily. Even if he's not quite at top form, his climbing in high mountains is on a different level to both of them. He'll probably gain close to a minute on them in the TT alone.

If his climbing is on a different level the Mollema would not have dropped him on the Ventoux. He was lucky that the crash happened as the gap would have been extended not that it would have made much difference to the way the race currently stands. If Froome does not attack then there is more chance that Mollema and Yates won't lose much time but if Froome drags a few riders with him it will put more stress on riders that are just trying to hold their position on GC. i just don't think Quintana has the form of previous years but it's now or never in the next few stages if he wants a podium.

Quintana obviously wasn't at his best on Ventoux since he was dropped not only by Froome, Mollema and Porte but also by the second GC group. I think it's fair to assume that he will be a lot stronger today

 

[King Boonen]

Skytrain up the Forclaz then Froome will either follow wheels if everyone else is strong or bury Quintana and anyone who can't hold on up the last 3km of Finhaut-Emosson.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

I honestly do not see how Quintana could beat Froome, in two days he can not return to the 2015 and give a minute to all. especially since there are at least 3-4 riders in better shape than him

I can't see how he can beat Froome either at the moment, but I don't believe there are 3-4 riders in better shape than him. He's been focused the whole tour on trying to get at Sky and put Froome under pressure, he's wasted energy doing this and has been passive at other times when Sky have looked strong.

If he abandons this plan and goes for second instead, I think he'll put time into Yates and Mollema easily. Even if he's not quite at top form, his climbing in high mountains is on a different level to both of them. He'll probably gain close to a minute on them in the TT alone.

If his climbing is on a different level the Mollema would not have dropped him on the Ventoux. He was lucky that the crash happened as the gap would have been extended not that it would have made much difference to the way the race currently stands. If Froome does not attack then there is more chance that Mollema and Yates won't lose much time but if Froome drags a few riders with him it will put more stress on riders that are just trying to hold their position on GC. i just don't think Quintana has the form of previous years but it's now or never in the next few stages if he wants a podium.

Mollema dropped him on Ventoux because Quintana burnt himself out trying to distance Froome. Quintana is absolutely nailed on for 2nd place here if he wants it. He might go for a ridiculous long range attack Contador-style, because at this point in his career, another 2nd place isn't worth so much to him. But I doubt it, he'll probably just go on a couple of medium range attacks, taking time on everyone apart from Froome.

I'd be pretty surprised if the podium isn't 1) Froome 2) Quintana 3) Aru / Valverde
These are the best climbers and also the riders who consistently last three weeks - often getting stronger towards the end of the race.

The problem is today rarely looks exactly like yesterday. Molemma at least is a way more obvious favorite for the podium spot than Aru.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

I honestly do not see how Quintana could beat Froome, in two days he can not return to the 2015 and give a minute to all. especially since there are at least 3-4 riders in better shape than him

I can't see how he can beat Froome either at the moment, but I don't believe there are 3-4 riders in better shape than him. He's been focused the whole tour on trying to get at Sky and put Froome under pressure, he's wasted energy doing this and has been passive at other times when Sky have looked strong.

If he abandons this plan and goes for second instead, I think he'll put time into Yates and Mollema easily. Even if he's not quite at top form, his climbing in high mountains is on a different level to both of them. He'll probably gain close to a minute on them in the TT alone.

If his climbing is on a different level the Mollema would not have dropped him on the Ventoux. He was lucky that the crash happened as the gap would have been extended not that it would have made much difference to the way the race currently stands. If Froome does not attack then there is more chance that Mollema and Yates won't lose much time but if Froome drags a few riders with him it will put more stress on riders that are just trying to hold their position on GC. i just don't think Quintana has the form of previous years but it's now or never in the next few stages if he wants a podium.

Mollema dropped him on Ventoux because Quintana burnt himself out trying to distance Froome. Quintana is absolutely nailed on for 2nd place here if he wants it. He might go for a ridiculous long range attack Contador-style, because at this point in his career, another 2nd place isn't worth so much to him. But I doubt it, he'll probably just go on a couple of medium range attacks, taking time on everyone apart from Froome.

I'd be pretty surprised if the podium isn't 1) Froome 2) Quintana 3) Aru / Valverde
These are the best climbers and also the riders who consistently last three weeks - often getting stronger towards the end of the race.

What you talking about? At least 6 riders are climbing better then Valverde this Tour. Mollema and Porte are climbing way better anyway, but also guys like Purito, Yates, Meintjes and Bardet have won more time on Valverde if you look at all the mountain stages so far.

Valverde is lying 5th because his TT was really good. But even in last years Vuelta, where he was 'nowhere' in the mountains, he rode to 3rd place in the Burgos TT. If you take the TT away, he would be 9th in GC.

He will not finish in the top-5 at the end of the race.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I honestly do not see how Quintana could beat Froome, in two days he can not return to the 2015 and give a minute to all. especially since there are at least 3-4 riders in better shape than him

I can't see how he can beat Froome either at the moment, but I don't believe there are 3-4 riders in better shape than him. He's been focused the whole tour on trying to get at Sky and put Froome under pressure, he's wasted energy doing this and has been passive at other times when Sky have looked strong.

If he abandons this plan and goes for second instead, I think he'll put time into Yates and Mollema easily. Even if he's not quite at top form, his climbing in high mountains is on a different level to both of them. He'll probably gain close to a minute on them in the TT alone.

If his climbing is on a different level the Mollema would not have dropped him on the Ventoux. He was lucky that the crash happened as the gap would have been extended not that it would have made much difference to the way the race currently stands. If Froome does not attack then there is more chance that Mollema and Yates won't lose much time but if Froome drags a few riders with him it will put more stress on riders that are just trying to hold their position on GC. i just don't think Quintana has the form of previous years but it's now or never in the next few stages if he wants a podium.

Mollema dropped him on Ventoux because Quintana burnt himself out trying to distance Froome. Quintana is absolutely nailed on for 2nd place here if he wants it. He might go for a ridiculous long range attack Contador-style, because at this point in his career, another 2nd place isn't worth so much to him. But I doubt it, he'll probably just go on a couple of medium range attacks, taking time on everyone apart from Froome.

I'd be pretty surprised if the podium isn't 1) Froome 2) Quintana 3) Aru / Valverde
These are the best climbers and also the riders who consistently last three weeks - often getting stronger towards the end of the race.

What you talking about? At least 6 riders are climbing better then Valverde this Tour. Mollema and Porte are climbing way better anyway, but also guys like Purito, Yates, Meintjes and Bardet have won more time on Valverde if you look at all the mountain stages so far.

Valverde is lying 5th because his TT was really good. But even in last years Vuelta, where he was 'nowhere' in the mountains, he rode to 3rd place in the Burgos TT. If you take the TT away, he would be 9th in GC.

He will not finish in the top-5 at the end of the race.

Surely TT is one of the best indicator of form and current strength? Valverde has been putting in digs and wasting energy in nearly every mountain stage, yet he's still up there. Indeed, the one stage he lost significant time on to most GC contenders, was because he soloed off the front on the very first climb of the day, putting nearly two minutes into everyone. He's probably been the second strongest climber in the race so far.

Of course, he may not be able to maintain it. But recent history suggests he has a better chance of holding his form in the final week than Porte or Mollema.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The problem is today rarely looks exactly like yesterday. Molemma at least is a way more obvious favorite for the podium spot than Aru.

If you just look at the last two weeks and ignore historic results that may be the case. But when was the last time that Aru - and indeed Astana - weren't absolutely flying after the final rest day? They'll be going all out for the podium now - looking to crack Mollema and Yates, even if it means working with, rather than against Sky.

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

But when was the last time that Aru - and indeed Astana - weren't absolutely flying after the final rest day?

When was the last time that Aru - or indeed any Astana's GC leader - were looking that weak and were sitting that far in GC after 16 stages of Grand Tour?

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

The problem is today rarely looks exactly like yesterday. Molemma at least is a way more obvious favorite for the podium spot than Aru.

If you just look at the last two weeks and ignore historic results that may be the case. But when was the last time that Aru - and indeed Astana - weren't absolutely flying after the final rest day? They'll be going all out for the podium now - looking to crack Mollema and Yates, even if it means working with, rather than against Sky.

Valverde finished on the podium at the Giro in May. He is 36 years old. He is lying 5th @3:17 and hasn't been saving himself. He will fade leaving Aru isolated unless Nibali can find some motivation. This is the Tour, not the Giro or Vuelta. I remain sceptical that Aru can lift himself enough. His best chance if is those ahead of him fade - like Valverde. If Aru does well in the MTT then it means he is strong and recovering and I might change my mind.

Molemma looks good for the podium. But many cards yet to play. Froome will attack if not this stage then he could still attack Mont Blanc or even Morzine (he can descend too now remember). If one of the other podium hopefuls can hold Froome's wheel things get interesting. Grab your seat the train is about to leave the station.

 

[SafeBet]

Nibali's problem so far wasn't motivation, but legs.
If he improves towards the end like in the Giro it's a whole different story for Astana.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

But when was the last time that Aru - and indeed Astana - weren't absolutely flying after the final rest day?

When was the last time that Aru - or indeed any Astana's GC leader - were looking that weak and were sitting that far in GC after 16 stages of Grand Tour?

Well, in Stage 18 of the Giro last year he was quite a bit further behind Contador than he is behind Froome now (over six minutes down). And he pulled back over four minutes in two stages. If he can do that to Contador, he can do it to Yates and Mollema.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

But when was the last time that Aru - and indeed Astana - weren't absolutely flying after the final rest day?

When was the last time that Aru - or indeed any Astana's GC leader - were looking that weak and were sitting that far in GC after 16 stages of Grand Tour?

Well, in Stage 18 of the Giro last year he was quite a bit further behind Contador than he is behind Froome now (over six minutes down). And he pulled back over four minutes in two stages. If he can do that to Contador, he can do it to Yates and Mollema.

Contador in last years giro wasnt much better than his 2013

 

[Cookster15]

Re:

Nibali's problem so far wasn't motivation, but legs.
If he improves towards the end like in the Giro it's a whole different story for Astana.

When was the last time anyone won the Giro and improved in the 3rd week of the Tour? Answer: 1998 Pantani. Not going to happen.

 

[Der Effe]

Re: Re:

But when was the last time that Aru - and indeed Astana - weren't absolutely flying after the final rest day?

When was the last time that Aru - or indeed any Astana's GC leader - were looking that weak and were sitting that far in GC after 16 stages of Grand Tour?

Well, in Stage 18 of the Giro last year he was quite a bit further behind Contador than he is behind Froome now (over six minutes down). And he pulled back over four minutes in two stages. If he can do that to Contador, he can do it to Yates and Mollema.

He had a better team than Contador had in that Giro, Team Sky won't allow it this time though.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Bardet has said that he doesnt care about protecting a 6th place on GC

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

But when was the last time that Aru - and indeed Astana - weren't absolutely flying after the final rest day?

When was the last time that Aru - or indeed any Astana's GC leader - were looking that weak and were sitting that far in GC after 16 stages of Grand Tour?

Well, in Stage 18 of the Giro last year he was quite a bit further behind Contador than he is behind Froome now (over six minutes down). And he pulled back over four minutes in two stages. If he can do that to Contador, he can do it to Yates and Mollema.

He was doing it against the rider with absolutely no team and he wasn't a direct threat for the pink jersey back then. That's a glaring gap between that situation & this one

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Bardet has said that he doesnt care about protecting a 6th place on GC

He was brave throughout this whole Tour, hope can finish above 6th even if he doesn't care, go go go!

 

[ILovecycling]

I doubt Froome will do a crazy attack, he doesnt looks comfortable this year and his best performance was in tt.Unless he really found this 3rd week peak then I cant see that.
OTOH its hard to imagine Quintana to do something either because with his form at Ventoux it looks like his legs are empty this July. Only possible scenario is the "wind-fatigue" but that seems unlikely. But IF he has legs he should attack at least at the bottom of Emosson after eliminating Froome to 1 domestique at Forclaz.


And we still have Astana-Aru-Bardet to entertain us!

 

[Samamba]

Re:

Bardet has said that he doesnt care about protecting a 6th place on GC

Maybe, but his team cares. They need the WT points.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

But when was the last time that Aru - and indeed Astana - weren't absolutely flying after the final rest day?

When was the last time that Aru - or indeed any Astana's GC leader - were looking that weak and were sitting that far in GC after 16 stages of Grand Tour?

Well, in Stage 18 of the Giro last year he was quite a bit further behind Contador than he is behind Froome now (over six minutes down). And he pulled back over four minutes in two stages. If he can do that to Contador, he can do it to Yates and Mollema.

He had a better team than Contador had in that Giro, Team Sky won't allow it this time though.

Sure, I don't think for one second that he's going to challenge Froome. But I think Astana could work with Sky to put out an even higher tempo on the climbs - one that could put Mollema and Yates in real difficulty. If LLS, Nibali and Rosa are prepared to sacrifice themselves for Aru (a big If in some cases); they have more than enough quality to really make the race for third place wide open.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

The problem is today rarely looks exactly like yesterday. Molemma at least is a way more obvious favorite for the podium spot than Aru.

If you just look at the last two weeks and ignore historic results that may be the case. But when was the last time that Aru - and indeed Astana - weren't absolutely flying after the final rest day? They'll be going all out for the podium now - looking to crack Mollema and Yates, even if it means working with, rather than against Sky.

Astana tried on Sunday and they broke TJVG. Mollema said he was comfortable, Porte said it was hard day day, Yates said it was very hard. Did it benefit Aru in any way ? Froome was surrounded by team mates on the final climb.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Nibali's problem so far wasn't motivation, but legs.
If he improves towards the end like in the Giro it's a whole different story for Astana.

When was the last time anyone won the Giro and improved in the 3rd week of the Tour? Answer: 1998 Pantani. Not going to happen.

It's a slightly different situation with Nibali though - because from the start he's shown no interest in the GC for the Tour. Presumably he's trying to peak for the Olympics, so I guess he took time off after the Giro and then is trying to ride himself into form during the Tour. I wouldn't be at all suprised to see his level going up, while the level of other riders goes down in the final week.

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

But when was the last time that Aru - and indeed Astana - weren't absolutely flying after the final rest day?

When was the last time that Aru - or indeed any Astana's GC leader - were looking that weak and were sitting that far in GC after 16 stages of Grand Tour?

Well, in Stage 18 of the Giro last year he was quite a bit further behind Contador than he is behind Froome now (over six minutes down). And he pulled back over four minutes in two stages. If he can do that to Contador, he can do it to Yates and Mollema.

Don't forget he was still sitting 3rd overall then, which indicates his form was better than it is this Tour. Also you are using only one Contador as a benchmark, don't forget Alberto had a strong crisis on stage 20, losing 2 minutes not only to Aru, but also to riders like Uran, Hesjedal and Kruijswijk. It's always more possible to gain much time on one rider, who can have bad day. If you need to take time on 4-5 riders, it's very unlikely they'll all have bad days.

 

[glassmoon]

Nairo will suck








































wheels.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

When was the last time that Aru - or indeed any Astana's GC leader - were looking that weak and were sitting that far in GC after 16 stages of Grand Tour?

Real answer (on rhetorical question) is: this years Giro. Nibali was almost as far in GC as is Aru now.

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

Real answer (on rhetorical question) is: this years Giro. Nibali was almost as far in GC as is Aru now.

After 16 stages, Nibali was 4th in GC and was losing only 1:43 to 2nd place.