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2016 TdF, Stage 17: Bern → Finhaut-Emosson (185km)

Page 5 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Re: Re:

Anderis said:
Kokoso said:
Real answer (on rhetorical question) is: this years Giro. Nibali was almost as far in GC as is Aru now.
After 16 stages, Nibali was 4th in GC and was losing only 1:43 to 2nd place.
Last year in the Tour, Nibali also gained about 7 minutes on Mollema in the final three mountain stages.

Basically in the last four GTs they have ridden, the Astana leader has been significantly stronger than most other GC riders in the final mountain stages. Whether that will happen again is certainly debatable, but history suggests there is a good chance. I don't think Aru has even been riding that badly; if he was he'd be more than five minutes behind Froome by now. Nibali was much further behind by this stage last year.
 
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
Matteo. said:
I honestly do not see how Quintana could beat Froome, in two days he can not return to the 2015 and give a minute to all. especially since there are at least 3-4 riders in better shape than him
I can't see how he can beat Froome either at the moment, but I don't believe there are 3-4 riders in better shape than him. He's been focused the whole tour on trying to get at Sky and put Froome under pressure, he's wasted energy doing this and has been passive at other times when Sky have looked strong.

If he abandons this plan and goes for second instead, I think he'll put time into Yates and Mollema easily. Even if he's not quite at top form, his climbing in high mountains is on a different level to both of them. He'll probably gain close to a minute on them in the TT alone.

uhm, I would not be so sure.
MTT is a delicate, pretty atypical compared to those we have seen in recent years. after all, about 17km there are only 2 kms really challenging. others have affordable slopes where counting speed and rhythm.
Mollema has been shown to have a good shape and in the last ITT to have a good pace on those slopes, but also Yates defended well.
 
Re: Re:

Matteo. said:
DFA123 said:
Matteo. said:
I honestly do not see how Quintana could beat Froome, in two days he can not return to the 2015 and give a minute to all. especially since there are at least 3-4 riders in better shape than him
I can't see how he can beat Froome either at the moment, but I don't believe there are 3-4 riders in better shape than him. He's been focused the whole tour on trying to get at Sky and put Froome under pressure, he's wasted energy doing this and has been passive at other times when Sky have looked strong.

If he abandons this plan and goes for second instead, I think he'll put time into Yates and Mollema easily. Even if he's not quite at top form, his climbing in high mountains is on a different level to both of them. He'll probably gain close to a minute on them in the TT alone.

uhm, I would not be so sure.
MTT is a delicate, pretty atypical compared to those we have seen in recent years. after all, about 17km there are only 2 kms really challenging. others have affordable slopes where counting speed and rhythm.
Mollema has been shown to have a good shape and in the last ITT to have a good pace on those slopes, but also Yates defended well.

Yeah, unless Quintana significantly improves, I can see him go even with Mollema and take 30 seconds on Yates
 
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MikeTichondrius said:
It's been the same everyday. Large break goes with the likes of Majka, De Gendt, Costa, Pinot (well, not anymore), Pauwels. Sky control but let them go and get large gaps. Nobody manages to shake off the core 5 Skyborgs and even Rowe/Stannard are usually there. They sure as heck will be there at the foot of the Forclaz, don't fool yourselves. I only saw the likes of Kiry drop on the Berthiand on the Colombier stage but even then they got back. I see them reduced to Froome/Poels/Landa/Nieve/Thomas on the early slopes of Forclaz, but you'll see four of them crest that.

I'm banking on Froome here really. Nobody's dropping him. And nobody has guts for an attack on the Forclaz where it'd be necessary. No, not even Nairo. This TDF has grown my dislike of Nairo immensely and on the other hand, made me at least a Froome admirer. Even as protected has he is, he's made the most meaningful moves so far at Revel and Luchon. Mollema has also impressed me. Valverde is also showing his claws and being overall better than Nairo. The latter has only disappointed me. I wanted to see last years 3rd week Nairo or something like that but no dice. He's supposed to be the strongest pure climber of the current peloton. I want to see that.

I was able to watch most of the Colombier stage in Australia...that doesn't always happen.

It was absurd how Froome had 8 domestiques with him for most of the stage. And the Colombier (both ascents) lack of interest is telling in conjunction with the places you mentioned as it revealed Mollema and Porte (when including Ventoux and the hills in the ITT) are the strongest climbers with Froome.

Is there an opportunity to drop Sky riders supporting Froome? Absolutely. However the pace needs to be high and they need to be shelled out the back.

BMC really could have used a certain Aussie rider who has gone home to set a cracking pace on the stage tomorrow before the Forclaz and Finhaut-Emosson...maybe they can help Movistar and/or Astana.

Its good to see Bardet tried something. Lets hope he attacks and races at least Quintana and Valverde plus Yates and Mollema.

Gotta agree, Bauke looked really good on stage 15.
 
Re: Re:

movingtarget said:
DFA123 said:
Matteo. said:
I honestly do not see how Quintana could beat Froome, in two days he can not return to the 2015 and give a minute to all. especially since there are at least 3-4 riders in better shape than him
I can't see how he can beat Froome either at the moment, but I don't believe there are 3-4 riders in better shape than him. He's been focused the whole tour on trying to get at Sky and put Froome under pressure, he's wasted energy doing this and has been passive at other times when Sky have looked strong.

If he abandons this plan and goes for second instead, I think he'll put time into Yates and Mollema easily. Even if he's not quite at top form, his climbing in high mountains is on a different level to both of them. He'll probably gain close to a minute on them in the TT alone.

If his climbing is on a different level the Mollema would not have dropped him on the Ventoux. He was lucky that the crash happened as the gap would have been extended not that it would have made much difference to the way the race currently stands. If Froome does not attack then there is more chance that Mollema and Yates won't lose much time but if Froome drags a few riders with him it will put more stress on riders that are just trying to hold their position on GC. i just don't think Quintana has the form of previous years but it's now or never in the next few stages if he wants a podium.

Could be the winds effected him more than Mollema with their difference in size. Additionally his attacks had to have taken a bit out of his tank. Possibly the entire stage of dealing with the high winds that were present simply wore him out even before they reached Ventoux. Mollema is in the form of his life obviously so we shouldn't discount him. Quintana showed earlier in the Tour that he could follow Froome's attacks although Froome made a point of stating that he was holding something in reserve because he didn't want to risk towing Quintana only to have him attack him later (or he said something to that effect).
 
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Re: Re:

Surely TT is one of the best indicator of form and current strength?[/b] Valverde has been putting in digs and wasting energy in nearly every mountain stage, yet he's still up there. Indeed, the one stage he lost significant time on to most GC contenders, was because he soloed off the front on the very first climb of the day, putting nearly two minutes into everyone. He's probably been the second strongest climber in the race so far.

Of course, he may not be able to maintain it. But recent history suggests he has a better chance of holding his form in the final week than Porte or Mollema.

That's funny. How can you explain his performance in the Vuelta of 2015 with that logic? He showed poor form in the mountains, maybe the worst in his whole career (with Tour 2012). But despite that, he rode a fantastic ITT in Burgos, where he was 3rd. How is that possible then?

It shows to me a TT doesn't say anything at all about your true climbing level.

And wasting energy in every mountain stage? He just rides for himself. Every attack he initiates, he does with one thing in mind: how can i ride so conservatively as possible to not lose time when i get reeled in by the Sky train? Alibi-attacks, i call them.

He shows a logical progression to me: he's not at his usual climbing level thanks to a tough Giro in his legs. But at least 6 riders are climbing better then him. And he will lose more and more time in the Alps. Just like he did in the Vuelta last year. Fatigue: even for Valverde it's a familiair disease.
 
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
Last year in the Tour, Nibali also gained about 7 minutes on Mollema in the final three mountain stages.
Basically in the last four GTs they have ridden, the Astana leader has been significantly stronger than most other GC riders in the final mountain stages.
My initial reaction is he won't, after pouring his energy into the GIro. But it wouldn't surprise me if your theory turns out to be true. Good post.
 
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Re: Re:

Anderis said:
Kokoso said:
Real answer (on rhetorical question) is: this years Giro. Nibali was almost as far in GC as is Aru now.
After 16 stages, Nibali was 4th in GC and was losing only 1:43 to 2nd place.
OR you can put it this way: after 16 stages, Nibali was 4:43 behind and Aru is 5:16. Now this looks more my way and less yours, doesn't it? ;)
 
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Re: Re:

Alpe d'Huez said:
DFA123 said:
Last year in the Tour, Nibali also gained about 7 minutes on Mollema in the final three mountain stages.
Basically in the last four GTs they have ridden, the Astana leader has been significantly stronger than most other GC riders in the final mountain stages.
My initial reaction is he won't, after pouring his energy into the GIro. But it wouldn't surprise me if your theory turns out to be true. Good post.
That is not theory. That's something what really happened, facts prove it. Maybe I don't quite undrestand you because your reaction seem little bit...that you didn't quite understood DFA123 :confused:
 
Re: Re:

Angliru said:
PremierAndrew said:
Bardet has said that he doesnt care about protecting a 6th place on GC

The same Bardet who confessed his great admiration for Contador. I like his style!

Bardet has been impressive in holding on. Clearly the strongest of the french riders ATM and I can see him attacking. He'd definitively have a stage win or two bagged if he wasn't in the GC fight. I believe he's at least better than Mollema and Yates. But he does have to prove it, still. I do not think he can beat Froome or Nairo if the latter shows what he's capable of in the last week.
 
Re: Re:

Arredondo said:
Surely TT is one of the best indicator of form and current strength?[/b] Valverde has been putting in digs and wasting energy in nearly every mountain stage, yet he's still up there. Indeed, the one stage he lost significant time on to most GC contenders, was because he soloed off the front on the very first climb of the day, putting nearly two minutes into everyone. He's probably been the second strongest climber in the race so far.

Of course, he may not be able to maintain it. But recent history suggests he has a better chance of holding his form in the final week than Porte or Mollema.

That's funny. How can you explain his performance in the Vuelta of 2015 with that logic? He showed poor form in the mountains, maybe the worst in his whole career (with Tour 2012). But despite that, he rode a fantastic ITT in Burgos, where he was 3rd. How is that possible then?

It shows to me a TT doesn't say anything at all about your true climbing level.

And wasting energy in every mountain stage? He just rides for himself. Every attack he initiates, he does with one thing in mind: how can i ride so conservatively as possible to not lose time when i get reeled in by the Sky train? Alibi-attacks, i call them.

He shows a logical progression to me: he's not at his usual climbing level thanks to a tough Giro in his legs. But at least 6 riders are climbing better then him. And he will lose more and more time in the Alps. Just like he did in the Vuelta last year. Fatigue: even for Valverde it's a familiair disease.

Your Valverde scepticism has been on another level lately, whats up? Didnt expect he would perform this well? :p
 
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Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Arredondo said:
Surely TT is one of the best indicator of form and current strength?[/b] Valverde has been putting in digs and wasting energy in nearly every mountain stage, yet he's still up there. Indeed, the one stage he lost significant time on to most GC contenders, was because he soloed off the front on the very first climb of the day, putting nearly two minutes into everyone. He's probably been the second strongest climber in the race so far.

Of course, he may not be able to maintain it. But recent history suggests he has a better chance of holding his form in the final week than Porte or Mollema.

That's funny. How can you explain his performance in the Vuelta of 2015 with that logic? He showed poor form in the mountains, maybe the worst in his whole career (with Tour 2012). But despite that, he rode a fantastic ITT in Burgos, where he was 3rd. How is that possible then?

It shows to me a TT doesn't say anything at all about your true climbing level.

And wasting energy in every mountain stage? He just rides for himself. Every attack he initiates, he does with one thing in mind: how can i ride so conservatively as possible to not lose time when i get reeled in by the Sky train? Alibi-attacks, i call them.

He shows a logical progression to me: he's not at his usual climbing level thanks to a tough Giro in his legs. But at least 6 riders are climbing better then him. And he will lose more and more time in the Alps. Just like he did in the Vuelta last year. Fatigue: even for Valverde it's a familiair disease.

Your Valverde scepticism has been on another level lately, whats up? Didnt expect he would perform this well? :p

I'm just looking at the things how they are.

If you really think Valverde works 100% for Quintana, then we live in a strange world. It's 80% for Valverde himself, and 20% for Quintana. I don't blame him, but that's really the situation.

And given the current state Nairo is in, i would hold something back too if i was Bala. But for Movistar and their chances to win the Tour, it's not ideal at all.
 
Re: Re:

Kokoso said:
OR you can put it this way: after 16 stages, Nibali was 4:43 behind and Aru is 5:16. Now this looks more my way and less yours, doesn't it? ;)
If you insist to keep it your way and ignore the points I've made, then surely.

But you can also include the fact that Kruijwsijk crashed, leaving Nibali with only 2 riders to chase, 1:43 gap to the best of them.
If here situation repeats and Froome crashes out, Aru still has 8 riders to chase, 3:29 gap to the best of them.

It's much easier to imagine someone flying in 3rd week if he was outperformed by only 3 riders over first 16 days of the race instead of 9. The Giro was probably more selective course-wise (or the way it was raced), that's why Aru's gap doesn't look all that bad in comparison.

We will see anyway. I'm not counting any possibility out. I just see some points why it's not very likely to expect Aru and Astana fit the pattern someone spotted this time.
 
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Re: Re:

Arredondo said:
Valv.Piti said:
Arredondo said:
Surely TT is one of the best indicator of form and current strength?[/b] Valverde has been putting in digs and wasting energy in nearly every mountain stage, yet he's still up there. Indeed, the one stage he lost significant time on to most GC contenders, was because he soloed off the front on the very first climb of the day, putting nearly two minutes into everyone. He's probably been the second strongest climber in the race so far.

Of course, he may not be able to maintain it. But recent history suggests he has a better chance of holding his form in the final week than Porte or Mollema.

That's funny. How can you explain his performance in the Vuelta of 2015 with that logic? He showed poor form in the mountains, maybe the worst in his whole career (with Tour 2012). But despite that, he rode a fantastic ITT in Burgos, where he was 3rd. How is that possible then?

It shows to me a TT doesn't say anything at all about your true climbing level.

And wasting energy in every mountain stage? He just rides for himself. Every attack he initiates, he does with one thing in mind: how can i ride so conservatively as possible to not lose time when i get reeled in by the Sky train? Alibi-attacks, i call them.

He shows a logical progression to me: he's not at his usual climbing level thanks to a tough Giro in his legs. But at least 6 riders are climbing better then him. And he will lose more and more time in the Alps. Just like he did in the Vuelta last year. Fatigue: even for Valverde it's a familiair disease.

Your Valverde scepticism has been on another level lately, whats up? Didnt expect he would perform this well? :p

I'm just looking at the things how they are.

If you really think Valverde works 100% for Quintana, then we live in a strange world. It's 80% for Valverde himself, and 20% for Quintana. I don't blame him, but that's really the situation.

And given the current state Nairo is in, i would hold something back too if i was Bala. But for Movistar and their chances to win the Tour, it's not ideal at all.

This would be more persuasive if you could point to things he should have done but didn't to save himself. It hasn't yet made sense to launch a suicide attack to multiply any time gains dominant climber Quintana can make on Froome, because dominant climber Quintana has yet to make an appearance at this year's Tour.
 
Re: Re:

Cookster15 said:
RattaKuningas said:
If Rosa, Nibali and Kangert feel any good and are capable of pacing the peloton (fast tempo) in the penultimate climb then Aru will do something.

I can't see Rosa, Nibali and Kangert being able to do much against the combined might of Landa, Poels, Henao, Thomas, and Nieve. Aru will be powerless - even if he did have the form which I doubt.

If Nibali feels really good he can do high pace with more power than usual Sky 400w and I think that this might disrupt Sky tactics because I'm not sure if their domestiques are used to riding any other pace besides their own. Nibali, Rosa and Kangert are good domestiques and if they ride as fast as they possibly can early into the climb then Sky domestiques even if they are not dropped can't feel fresh either and are probably less capable of responding to attacks of the GC conteders or sustaining their 400w.
But maybe Astana should control and just play with the pace (less than 400w and over 400w) and see if that disrupts Sky train because sudden pace changes are not for everyone. Aru seems to be kind of a rider who can deal with pace changes.
 
Quintana and Aru must attack tomorrow!! The MTT will create gaps, but tomorrow there will be serious gaps, so they have to make an alliance on stage and attack as soon as they see their chances and go on together @ Forclaz, that's the only chance for both of them, otherwise they can't be called again as serious contenders on GC.

Mollema and Yates can defend their positions if they can hold on Froome's wheel, but if they want to give a try and test Froome, they can make it on MTT, tomorrow they have to be a bit conservative.
 
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Re: Re:

MikeTichondrius said:
Angliru said:
PremierAndrew said:
Bardet has said that he doesnt care about protecting a 6th place on GC

The same Bardet who confessed his great admiration for Contador. I like his style!

Bardet has been impressive in holding on. Clearly the strongest of the french riders ATM and I can see him attacking. He'd definitively have a stage win or two bagged if he wasn't in the GC fight. I believe he's at least better than Mollema and Yates. But he does have to prove it, still. I do not think he can beat Froome or Nairo if the latter shows what he's capable of in the last week.
No way is he better than Mollema or Yates for that matter, he's all talk, so far he's been dropped by the best on arcalis, dropped by the best on ventoux, put in an attack on a stage that suited him perfectly and been reeled in by Wout Poels and gain no time. He will lose more time in the tt and in the summit finish, he's top 10 materiel and might sneak into the top 5 if lucky and Valverde fails, no better.
 
Re: Re:

RattaKuningas said:
Cookster15 said:
RattaKuningas said:
If Rosa, Nibali and Kangert feel any good and are capable of pacing the peloton (fast tempo) in the penultimate climb then Aru will do something.

I can't see Rosa, Nibali and Kangert being able to do much against the combined might of Landa, Poels, Henao, Thomas, and Nieve. Aru will be powerless - even if he did have the form which I doubt.

If Nibali feels really good he can do high pace with more power than usual Sky 400w and I think that this might disrupt Sky tactics because I'm not sure if their domestiques are used to riding any other pace besides their own. Nibali, Rosa and Kangert are good domestiques and if they ride as fast as they possibly can early into the climb then Sky domestiques even if they are not dropped can't feel fresh either and are probably less capable of responding to attacks of the GC conteders or sustaining their 400w.
But maybe Astana should control and just play with the pace (less than 400w and over 400w) and see if that disrupts Sky train because sudden pace changes are not for everyone. Aru seems to be kind of a rider who can deal with pace changes.

I think if Nibali feels really he good, he will be 5 minutes up the road winning the stage. He's not going to hang around for Aru if he has his climbing legs back.
 
Why do people talk about a high pace to shell Froome's army of climbers? High cadence on climbs in heat are what Sky are famous for, hell if Froome is peaking then he might decide that the best defence is a good offence. It's an interesting challenge for the other teams and should be a fun watch, don't think tomorrow is it as Sky should be all together at the foot of the Forclaz and I expect to boss it from there.
 
Re: Re:

Ramon Koran said:
MikeTichondrius said:
Angliru said:
PremierAndrew said:
Bardet has said that he doesnt care about protecting a 6th place on GC

The same Bardet who confessed his great admiration for Contador. I like his style!

Bardet has been impressive in holding on. Clearly the strongest of the french riders ATM and I can see him attacking. He'd definitively have a stage win or two bagged if he wasn't in the GC fight. I believe he's at least better than Mollema and Yates. But he does have to prove it, still. I do not think he can beat Froome or Nairo if the latter shows what he's capable of in the last week.
No way is he better than Mollema or Yates for that matter, he's all talk, so far he's been dropped by the best on arcalis, dropped by the best on ventoux, put in an attack on a stage that suited him perfectly and been reeled in by Wout Poels and gain no time. He will lose more time in the tt and in the summit finish, he's top 10 materiel and might sneak into the top 5 if lucky and Valverde fails, no better.
Is Adam Yates top-5 material?