2016 TdF, Stage 17: Bern → Finhaut-Emosson (185km)

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Surely TT is one of the best indicator of form and current strength?[/b] Valverde has been putting in digs and wasting energy in nearly every mountain stage, yet he's still up there. Indeed, the one stage he lost significant time on to most GC contenders, was because he soloed off the front on the very first climb of the day, putting nearly two minutes into everyone. He's probably been the second strongest climber in the race so far.

Of course, he may not be able to maintain it. But recent history suggests he has a better chance of holding his form in the final week than Porte or Mollema.

That's funny. How can you explain his performance in the Vuelta of 2015 with that logic? He showed poor form in the mountains, maybe the worst in his whole career (with Tour 2012). But despite that, he rode a fantastic ITT in Burgos, where he was 3rd. How is that possible then?

It shows to me a TT doesn't say anything at all about your true climbing level.

And wasting energy in every mountain stage? He just rides for himself. Every attack he initiates, he does with one thing in mind: how can i ride so conservatively as possible to not lose time when i get reeled in by the Sky train? Alibi-attacks, i call them.

He shows a logical progression to me: he's not at his usual climbing level thanks to a tough Giro in his legs. But at least 6 riders are climbing better then him. And he will lose more and more time in the Alps. Just like he did in the Vuelta last year. Fatigue: even for Valverde it's a familiair disease.

Your Valverde scepticism has been on another level lately, whats up? Didnt expect he would perform this well?

I'm just looking at the things how they are.

If you really think Valverde works 100% for Quintana, then we live in a strange world. It's 80% for Valverde himself, and 20% for Quintana. I don't blame him, but that's really the situation.

And given the current state Nairo is in, i would hold something back too if i was Bala. But for Movistar and their chances to win the Tour, it's not ideal at all.

This would be more persuasive if you could point to things he should have done but didn't to save himself. It hasn't yet made sense to launch a suicide attack to multiply any time gains dominant climber Quintana can make on Froome, because dominant climber Quintana has yet to make an appearance at this year's Tour.

Just look at his attack on Ventoux. He rode past Pantano, but 10-15 seconds after he made his attack, he already looked back at the yellow jersey group. When he saw he only had a gap of a couple of seconds, he decided to sit up. It lacked any agression and belief. In my humble opinion ofcourse.

It's not a full *** attack to be actually a springboard for Quintana.

 

[Valv.Piti]

But I guess the point that is being made is, why would be bury himself when Quintana can't follow up? All a full *** attack would amount in would be a greater loss for Quintana and Valverde.

 

[Ramon Koran]

Re: Re:

Bardet has said that he doesnt care about protecting a 6th place on GC

The same Bardet who confessed his great admiration for Contador. I like his style!

Bardet has been impressive in holding on. Clearly the strongest of the french riders ATM and I can see him attacking. He'd definitively have a stage win or two bagged if he wasn't in the GC fight. I believe he's at least better than Mollema and Yates. But he does have to prove it, still. I do not think he can beat Froome or Nairo if the latter shows what he's capable of in the last week.

No way is he better than Mollema or Yates for that matter, he's all talk, so far he's been dropped by the best on arcalis, dropped by the best on ventoux, put in an attack on a stage that suited him perfectly and been reeled in by Wout Poels and gain no time. He will lose more time in the tt and in the summit finish, he's top 10 materiel and might sneak into the top 5 if lucky and Valverde fails, no better.

Is Adam Yates top-5 material?

Yes, at leaast more so than Bardet. He knows how to pace himself and is strong enough, there for he shouldn't blow up what's more he's 1 minute 20 ahead of Bardet does someone really see romain making that time up in the final week given that he has yet to distance Yates? Adam's reall worrie is Porte but hopefully the upcoming Valverde, and Mollema blowups combined with Quinatna's aparant illness leave him with a decent shot to stay on the podium.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

Bardet has been impressive in holding on. Clearly the strongest of the french riders ATM and I can see him attacking. He'd definitively have a stage win or two bagged if he wasn't in the GC fight. I believe he's at least better than Mollema and Yates. But he does have to prove it, still. I do not think he can beat Froome or Nairo if the latter shows what he's capable of in the last week.

No way is he better than Mollema or Yates for that matter, he's all talk, so far he's been dropped by the best on arcalis, dropped by the best on ventoux, put in an attack on a stage that suited him perfectly and been reeled in by Wout Poels and gain no time. He will lose more time in the tt and in the summit finish, he's top 10 materiel and might sneak into the top 5 if lucky and Valverde fails, no better.

Is Adam Yates top-5 material?

Yes, at leaast more so than Bardet. He knows how to pace himself and is strong enough, there for he shouldn't blow up what's more he's 1 minute 20 ahead of Bardet does someone really see romain making that time up in the final week given that he has yet to distance Yates? Adam's reall worrie is Porte but hopefully the upcoming Valverde, and Mollema blowups combined with Quinatna's aparant illness leave him with a decent shot to stay on the podium.

Adam's real worry is how he deals with four consecutive hard days in the third week.

 

[Ramon Koran]

Re: Re:

Bardet has been impressive in holding on. Clearly the strongest of the french riders ATM and I can see him attacking. He'd definitively have a stage win or two bagged if he wasn't in the GC fight. I believe he's at least better than Mollema and Yates. But he does have to prove it, still. I do not think he can beat Froome or Nairo if the latter shows what he's capable of in the last week.

No way is he better than Mollema or Yates for that matter, he's all talk, so far he's been dropped by the best on arcalis, dropped by the best on ventoux, put in an attack on a stage that suited him perfectly and been reeled in by Wout Poels and gain no time. He will lose more time in the tt and in the summit finish, he's top 10 materiel and might sneak into the top 5 if lucky and Valverde fails, no better.

Is Adam Yates top-5 material?

Yes, at leaast more so than Bardet. He knows how to pace himself and is strong enough, there for he shouldn't blow up what's more he's 1 minute 20 ahead of Bardet does someone really see romain making that time up in the final week given that he has yet to distance Yates? Adam's reall worrie is Porte but hopefully the upcoming Valverde, and Mollema blowups combined with Quinatna's aparant illness leave him with a decent shot to stay on the podium.

Adam's real worry is how he deals with four consecutive hard days in the third week.

True that is a big unknow however he's held for two weeks riding strongly and will hang on for dear life in the alps, can't see him outside of the top 10, he's rode two grand tours already he has the stamina can he hold the high level? No reason why not.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Quintana and Aru must attack tomorrow!! The MTT will create gaps, but tomorrow there will be serious gaps, so they have to make an alliance on stage and attack as soon as they see their chances and go on together @ Forclaz, that's the only chance for both of them, otherwise they can't be called again as serious contenders on GC.

Mollema and Yates can defend their positions if they can hold on Froome's wheel, but if they want to give a try and test Froome, they can make it on MTT, tomorrow they have to be a bit conservative.

Also because of their usual 3rd week performance its in their best interest that tomorrow's stage and the final climb is ridden as hard as possible because they should recover better for next day mtt than their rivals.
But their form is the question mark...

 

[Cookster15]

Re:

Why do people talk about a high pace to shell Froome's army of climbers? High cadence on climbs in heat are what Sky are famous for, hell if Froome is peaking then he might decide that the best defence is a good offence. It's an interesting challenge for the other teams and should be a fun watch, don't think tomorrow is it as Sky should be all together at the foot of the Forclaz and I expect to boss it from there.

The foot of Forclaz is 30km from the finish. That's a long way for Sky to "boss it" if Movistar and Astana keep the pressure up. Forclaz is 13km @ 8% and the finish climb 10.4km @8.4%. We will soon find out how tired Sky is from "bossing" the race so far. Yes I am probably just hopeful but sometimes hope is all we have.

 

[Sem Travões]

Froome is going to counter all the attacks made by Movistana and gain more time on everyone easy, where's the doubt

 

[Cookster15]

Re:

Froome is going to counter all the attacks made by Movistana and gain more time on everyone easy, where's the doubt

Maybe Movistana can sit on Sky's wheels and jump around them if any minor reduction in pace. That could unsettle their rhythm and confidence. What might be more interesting is seeing which other podium hopefuls can react when Froome attacks.

 

[BYOP88]

You guys are all talking a good stage so it will end up sucking.

 

[Rollthedice]

Time for Landa to step in Poels' shoes tomorrow, grab that soda at some point while pushing in excess of 400 W and bring back his former captain and whoever might dare to "accelerate" away from Froomey.

 

[blaxland]

Re: Re:

Would like to see Porte go on the attack tonight but i think Sky will ride a crazy pace and crush all attacks.giving Froome the last 5kms to gain another 20-30 seconds.Bardet may also try something but Mollema and Yates will be sucking wheels all the way to the end.Both have stated that 2nd/3rd in the tour would be an achievement for them both.

He will be attacking a pillow. Rest day.

Doh your right,was meaning tonights stage.lol

 

[Gigs_98]

What I really don't get is why so many people think Froome will be absolutely superb and easily follow and then drop everyone. He surely won't be bad but besides the ITT this tour really hasn't been all that impressive from him. The climbing he showed so far is the worst we have seem from him in the tdf since he became a gc rider and hasn't had one day yet where he dropped everyone on a climb. Even last year when Froome "faded" in the last week he was still by far better than anyone else except Quintana while this year guys like Mollema caught him after one of his all out attacks. Moreover this year the competition so far has actually even been weaker than normally since Quintana has been in bad shape, Contador crashed out and Nibali isn't targeting gc.
Of course Froome has sad he wants to peak later but I never really believed that so tomorrow could be the day on which he proves me wrong but besides that I just don't see why I should think Froome will completely destroy everyone in this last week.

 

[52520Andrew]

Yates looked in the red on stage 15 and while Mollema is in good form, I don't know if he can keep it up. I think Porte could get himself onto the podium before all is said and done if the race gets hard enough although he has his work cut out for him.

 

[MikeTichondrius]

What I really don't get is why so many people think Froome will be absolutely superb and easily follow and then drop everyone. He surely won't be bad but besides the ITT this tour really hasn't been all that impressive from him. The climbing he showed so far is the worst we have seem from him in the tdf since he became a gc rider and hasn't had one day yet where he dropped everyone on a climb. Even last year when Froome "faded" in the last week he was still by far better than anyone else except Quintana while this year guys like Mollema caught him after one of his all out attacks. Moreover this year the competition so far has actually even been weaker than normally since Quintana has been in bad shape, Contador crashed out and Nibali isn't targeting gc.
Of course Froome has sad he wants to peak later but I never really believed that so tomorrow could be the day on which he proves me wrong but besides that I just don't see why I should think Froome will completely destroy everyone in this last week.

I always read last year's apparent drop in form as plain old controlled time loss. Froome never seemed to be out of the driver's seat from my perspective. He has a decent time gap to the others this year as well. IMO he only needs to worry about a strong Mollema - even if Nairo is better I don't think he can overcome the current gap unless Froome pulls a Kruijswijk.

 

[This Charming Man]

Re:

1. Froome
2. Porte + 45s
3. Aru + 1m03s
4. Purito st
5. Mollema + 1m23s
6. Quintana + 1m40s
7. Yates 1m50s
8. Meintjes + 2m30s
9. Bardet st
10. Zakarin + 2m54s

17. Tejay + 6m12s

I think Porte, Quinatana,will bite it hard, Look to see Mollema, Aru, Yates, Pure boy, riding with, or attacking Froome, TJ, 45 s down from the top contenders, BTW, Purito, is not a GC contender.

 

[This Charming Man]

Re: Re:

Last year in the Tour, Nibali also gained about 7 minutes on Mollema in the final three mountain stages.
Basically in the last four GTs they have ridden, the Astana leader has been significantly stronger than most other GC riders in the final mountain stages.

My initial reaction is he won't, after pouring his energy into the GIro. But it wouldn't surprise me if your theory turns out to be true. Good post.

Let us face it, ASTANA, has superior training, sports science, they can come back, yes they can! Excellence.

 

[This Charming Man]

Re: Re:

When was the last time anyone won the Giro and improved in the 3rd week of the Tour? Answer: 1998 Pantani. Not going to happen.

The correct answer would actually be: 2005 Savoldelli.
Which is a pretty similar situation to 2016 Nibali.

Sports science, what a wonderful thing!

 

[hfer07]

Nibali to resurrect from the death and win the stage

some fireworks will happen but nothing serious to affect the GC

 

[PremierAndrew]

What I really don't get is why so many people think Froome will be absolutely superb and easily follow and then drop everyone. He surely won't be bad but besides the ITT this tour really hasn't been all that impressive from him. The climbing he showed so far is the worst we have seem from him in the tdf since he became a gc rider and hasn't had one day yet where he dropped everyone on a climb. Even last year when Froome "faded" in the last week he was still by far better than anyone else except Quintana while this year guys like Mollema caught him after one of his all out attacks. Moreover this year the competition so far has actually even been weaker than normally since Quintana has been in bad shape, Contador crashed out and Nibali isn't targeting gc.
Of course Froome has sad he wants to peak later but I never really believed that so tomorrow could be the day on which he proves me wrong but besides that I just don't see why I should think Froome will completely destroy everyone in this last week.

Exactly, Froome has not looked at his best yet. And he has talked all season about aiming to peak in week 3 this year instead of 1 and 2. And its not like froomes going to mess up his form and peak outside the tour.

He really could end up with a 4 minute winning margin over 2nd place

 

[Big Doopie]

1. Porte
2. Froome s.t.
3. Mollema @27"
4. Yates @ 56"
5. Bardet s.t.
5. Valverde @ 1'08"
6. Quintana s.t.
7. Martin @ 1'36"
8. Rodriguez @ 2'12"

TJVG @ 4'09"

The big question: Aru

If he benefits from typical Astana third week bump, then Froome will win just barely out-sprinting him. And Porte will be dropped.

If being on French soil somehow doesn't allow for the Astana third week bounce, then Aru won't be much in front of TJVG.

 

[The Barb]

With the mountain time trial tomorrow, this could easily be another day for the break, assuming some reasonably strong climbers get into it. Zakarin is hungry, has improving form and has the power on the flats to find the break on a stage where other climbers may struggle.

If it's a GC day, this could be the stage I've been expecting where Froome and Porte go clear and Froome gifts him the win.

 

[observer]

My real guess.

Sky train most of the stage.
Froome eggbeater attack. 1.5-2 mins into the next best.

Porte to come in 2nd.
ST Aru.

Small loss Quintana
Medium loss Valverde, ST. Mollema
big loss Yates, TJVG

if Yates doesn't lose time today, he will over the next few days. Out of the top 5.

 

[seedupd]

my opinion for today... i guess that Rolland, Anacona, Landa, Rosa, Barguil, Majka and De Gent will be in the breakaway, so one of the will win.

the favourites:

Quintana
Aru: st.
Froome: 45s
Porte: st

Bardet: 1:30
Valverde: st

Mollema: 1:50
Yates: st

Purito: 2:10

Kreuziger: 2:30
Meintjes: st
TVG: st
Henao: st
Martin: st

 

[Winkin' boy]

Re:

With the mountain time trial tomorrow, this could easily be another day for the break, assuming some reasonably strong climbers get into it.

It's a day after a rest day, Emosson is extremely hard. Gaps will be enormous, imo bigger than in MTT next day.

Anyway, SKY don't need to chase a breakaway, they can put the hammer down on the last climb.