2016 Tour Down Under WT January 19-24 Adelaide

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Who wil win TDU?

  • PORTE Richie

    Votes: 13 12.3%
  • THOMAS Geraint

    Votes: 8 7.5%
  • DENNIS Rohan

    Votes: 31 29.2%
  • POZZOVIVO Domenico

    Votes: 1 0.9%
  • HENAO Sergio Luis

    Votes: 7 6.6%
  • ULISSI Diego

    Votes: 8 7.5%
  • BOBRIDGE Jack

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • GERRANS Simon

    Votes: 19 17.9%
  • VAKOC Petr

    Votes: 5 4.7%
  • Other (Vino)

    Votes: 14 13.2%

  • Total voters
    106
Re:

ebandit said:
....gerro will win taking best advantage of race rules....if you think that makes a great race............enjoy!

i'm happy watching the TDU 'cos we've had no racing for ages.............personally i think that a WT ranking race

should be better.............but as it's the 1st race of the year it's never gonna be harder

Mark L

I'm a bit confused here.
Were you complaining that Gerrans won by following the rules? How else should he have won? Oh, and don't say that the problem with the rules was that they allowed Gerrans to win. I must've missed the time he went on a huge candy-stealing spree, so I don't really get the collective hatred of him. :)
 
Is Caleb Ewan the new Andrea Guardini? A master of early season races, stupendously quick but lacking in the endurance or climbing nous to get over many obstacles, meaning when he gets to the finish he's a favourite, but he'll get dropped in a lot of places others wouldn't?
 
It was great to see Ewan doing some time on the front of the peleton yesterday and then popping up to win again today. Robbie McEwan was commentating at the time and mentioned that he only ever did a turn on the front once in his career. Funny stuff.

I think that Ewan has already shown he can fire at all times in the season with different wins right throughout last year, including his stage in the Vuelta. I don't think it will be the height or weight issue with Ewan, I think it is more about the crashes. Sprinting is definitely the most dangerous gig and if he can stay upright and uninjured he will do really well. Every crash for those fast guys takes a small percent from the bodies ability and their confidence. That was why I was really impressed seeing Matty Hayman sitting on Ewan's back wheel today making sure he didn't get knocked around by older riders trying to get on his wheel.
 
Hats off to Gerrans as well. He had some terrible crashes throughout last year and for him to go down again on Stage 2 of this race, then get back on the horse and win two stages in a row was a gutsy effort. Same kudo's to Impey who also had his share of crashes in the last year and also came down in Stage 2.

Not sure how the cycling rated but today's stage was on the No. 1 channel on 9, after being moved to the second channel yesterday for the one day cricket. Channel 7 and the tennis are too big to knock off at this time of year but for 9 to have the cycling on their main channel means it is bringing in viewers and sponsors.
 
Jul 15, 2010
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Libertine Seguros said:
Is Caleb Ewan the new Andrea Guardini? A master of early season races, stupendously quick but lacking in the endurance or climbing nous to get over many obstacles, meaning when he gets to the finish he's a favourite, but he'll get dropped in a lot of places others wouldn't?
Ewan won the u19 TT championship in Australia, won the national u23 road race on the tough Buninyong circuit and then followed up with second in the seniors the next year on the same course.
He was second in the u23 world championships in 2014 on what was not an easy course.
He is 21 - no one seems to be asking questions about what happened to anyone else from that 2014 WC race, who have not really made the transition to the pro's.
Ewan is not precious, he works for others when he cant win and is in a team with Gerrans and Matthews where there will usually be someone who sprints well off a tough course. He is a better allrounder than people think, but he is being judged pretty hard.
 
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RedheadDane said:
I'm a bit confused here.
Were you complaining that Gerrans won by following the rules? How else should he have won? Oh, and don't say that the problem with the rules was that they allowed Gerrans to win. I must've missed the time he went on a huge candy-stealing spree, so I don't really get the collective hatred of him. :)
I agree Gerrans rides like a human being in Oz.
Let him win, there.

If only he didn't revert to his tactical wheels_cking in Europe.
 
Apr 10, 2011
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Libertine Seguros said:
Is Caleb Ewan the new Andrea Guardini? A master of early season races, stupendously quick but lacking in the endurance or climbing nous to get over many obstacles, meaning when he gets to the finish he's a favourite, but he'll get dropped in a lot of places others wouldn't?

What kind of conclusion is that? Master of early races???? Just because he obviously peaks for his home race?

He won Spanish classic in April moving to podiums in Norway and Turkey, before another podiums in August in Poland to win a stage in Grand Tour - in his 1st year...

What kind of endurance you expect him to have at 21?
 
Re: Re:

Gloin22 said:
Libertine Seguros said:
Is Caleb Ewan the new Andrea Guardini? A master of early season races, stupendously quick but lacking in the endurance or climbing nous to get over many obstacles, meaning when he gets to the finish he's a favourite, but he'll get dropped in a lot of places others wouldn't?

What kind of conclusion is that? Master of early races???? Just because he obviously peaks for his home race?

He won Spanish classic in April moving to podiums in Norway and Turkey, before another podiums in August in Poland to win a stage in Grand Tour - in his 1st year...

What kind of endurance you expect him to have at 21?

As much as Bonifazio did last year. Or Gaviria has right now.

He is a pure sprinter, I feel. Climbs or endurance isn't the thing for him; most likely he'll become the new Cav with less good endurance.
 
Re:

Libertine Seguros said:
Is Caleb Ewan the new Andrea Guardini? A master of early season races, stupendously quick but lacking in the endurance or climbing nous to get over many obstacles, meaning when he gets to the finish he's a favourite, but he'll get dropped in a lot of places others wouldn't?

Not going to go there re the Guardini comparison but your summation basically concurs with my fairest read on him.
 
Re: Re:

fatsprintking said:
Ewan won the u19 TT championship in Australia, won the national u23 road race on the tough Buninyong circuit and then followed up with second in the seniors the next year on the same course.
He was second in the u23 world championships in 2014 on what was not an easy course.
He is 21 - no one seems to be asking questions about what happened to anyone else from that 2014 WC race, who have not really made the transition to the pro's.
Ewan is not precious, he works for others when he cant win and is in a team with Gerrans and Matthews where there will usually be someone who sprints well off a tough course. He is a better allrounder than people think, but he is being judged pretty hard.
The problem is, when you're successful straight from the bat, the hype train begins, and then expectations go flying. That often leads to backlash. Phil & Paul are especially unhelpful in this regard (continually pointing out that he's already won six races this season for most of the race, seven obviously once he won the final stage - although when you look at it, four are national calendar races and mostly crits, and of the three that are international calendar, one is a meaningless sub-100km crit with WT points, one is a meaningless sub-100km crit without WT points, and one was a normal road stage. Even those who like Ewan may find such hype irritating as it unfairly inflates expectation of him to a point he can't achieve).

Either way, it remains to be seen what impact his previous results have where he showed greater versatility, after all, Marcel Kittel was a TT specialist as an espoir, it's fair to say he's wound up specialising in a different area; Thor Hushovd had some good climbing and TT results as an espoir - people are often more versatile as espoirs than they become when they progress, and Ewan is also progressing earlier than most. That may go well for him, like it has for e.g. Sagan, or it might mean he gets pigeonholed into one direction earlier than some, to his detriment.
 
Mar 14, 2009
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Libertine Seguros said:
Is Caleb Ewan the new Andrea Guardini? A master of early season races, stupendously quick but lacking in the endurance or climbing nous to get over many obstacles, meaning when he gets to the finish he's a favourite, but he'll get dropped in a lot of places others wouldn't?

Glad to see that we are on the same page. I made a similar comparison to Guardini in this thread on January 19th ...

Jancouver said:
He is definitely nothing like Zabel, Oscarito and especially not Sagan.

I think he would be in the "Guardini" league of sprinters ... the occasional straight drag race or slight uphill where he can take advantage of his "little girl skinsuit" size.
 
Re:

Dekker_Tifosi said:
Ewan is way more versatile then Guardini. He can actually survive tougher stages
Case in point:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=28101

Guardini could never EVER do that

So it's a horribly bad comparison.

That was actually a really easy stage, only the sprint went (slightly) uphill. Not that Guardini could win on a finish like that but you can not call that a tougher stage imo. In all other Vuelta stages Ewan got dropped also in the easier ones (in the harder ones he often did some work for the team).

Anyway I also do not like the comparison with Guardini and Ewan used to be pretty good at the hillier terrain in the U23 ranks, but he still has a lot to prove between the pros. But he has all the time in the world right now.
 
Mar 14, 2009
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LaFlorecita said:
He is 21, what the heck folks. Leave him be.

We didn't create the hype :D

BTW he will be 22 in July so it is not like he is some junior teenager. Also, LS or neither did I say that he will not be winning races left and right.

Some of us just have the opinion that his wins will come from "easy-flat-crit" type of races, that's all.
 
Re: Re:

Jancouver said:
LaFlorecita said:
He is 21, what the heck folks. Leave him be.

We didn't create the hype :D

BTW he will be 22 in July so it is not like he is some junior teenager. Also, LS or neither did I say that he will not be winning races left and right.

Some of us just have the opinion that his wins will come from "easy-flat-crit" type of races, that's all.
Yes and some of you make it sound as if that's some sort of crime against humanity.
 
Definitely harsh to compare him to Guardini. Not that he is bad, but I think its fair to say that already, this early, he seems to be having a higher ceiling than that. Christ, he is 21, entering is second season and is winning everything he touches.
 
Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Definitely harsh to compare him to Guardini. Not that he is bad, but I think its fair to say that already, this early, he seems to be having a higher ceiling than that. Christ, he is 21, entering is second season and is winning everything he touches.
But you have to remember the expectations people had of Guardini after his breakout. It was going to be that the Giro was going to start filling itself with flat stages for him to win like they did for Petacchi back in '03-'04, he was going to be duelling with Cavendish for years, and so on. Over the course of the following 18 months those expectations were scaled back as the extent of his limitations became clear.
 
Re: Re:

Libertine Seguros said:
Valv.Piti said:
Definitely harsh to compare him to Guardini. Not that he is bad, but I think its fair to say that already, this early, he seems to be having a higher ceiling than that. Christ, he is 21, entering is second season and is winning everything he touches.
But you have to remember the expectations people had of Guardini after his breakout. It was going to be that the Giro was going to start filling itself with flat stages for him to win like they did for Petacchi back in '03-'04, he was going to be duelling with Cavendish for years, and so on. Over the course of the following 18 months those expectations were scaled back as the extent of his limitations became clear.

I dont even remember people having lofty expectations, I have only really followed cycling closely over the last two years contrary to just following the WT-calander from afar and watching the GT's and especially the Tour closely. But thank god he didn't, then ;)

Anyways, I think we should wait for the season to unfold before judging him too hard. He is still on a super early stage of his career.