2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 196km

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Valverde will crack. Contador attacks on the penultimate climb and will be cooked 5 k to go when washing machine Froome will pass him, elbows bent like pushing a supermarket trolley up Aubisque with Quintana on his wheel. Not far behind Scarponi. Nairo drops the Dawg with 3K to go, no yoyo can help him as Scarponi finishes second, 50 seconds down. Somehow Bertie manages to catch the struggling Froome and out sprints him for third place 1:15 to Stoneface.

That would be Contador stronger tha Froome, and Contador is not stronger than Froome. Contadoris good in stages like Peña Cabarga, if he couldnt be strongter there, tomorrow is impossible, tomorrow is a long stage with more than one importat effort. In that froppme are quintana are the best.

Contador knows how to manage estrategy, so tomorrow he could play an important role and espectacle, but his chances to recover time tomorrow are very little.

Some people here was saying Contador had no big chances with Quintana and Froome in le Tour the same day Contador beated Quintana clearly in Pais Vasco, doing a superperformace.

And it is what we will see tomorrow, although he could prepare better the Vuelta.

 

[Descender]

The first high mountain stage of this Vuelta.

And the last one.

 

[MatParker117]

Re: Re:

why would froome let quintana wheelsuck? i don't think there is anything in it at the minute, therefore he doesn't have to try and break quintana like he did with contador in 2014 and realistically he was just trying to drop the 2 spanish parasites.

Even alien mode Froome lacks an off switch that prevents his rivals from pedaling...

If Quintana has the legs, he has the legs and he can wheelsuck Froome until the last 2km then drop him and gain 15+ seconds.

However, the situation in 2014 was different. Froome could only win by dropping Bertie in the mountains, as there was obviously too much time to make up in the final 10km TT.

Froome's tactics on the Pena Cabarga this year seem to be far more relevant. For the first part of the climb, he sat on Quintana's wheel and reacted to Quintana's attack. OK, when the two were clear in front, he put in his own dig, but by that point Nairo wasn't going to gain much time whatever happened.

So this is how I see it. A huge war of attrition with a couple of the top 10 contenders being dropped before the final climb, where there will be 30-40 riders left in a reduced peloton (some of the dropped contenders might have caught back on, temporarily) chasing the remains of the break with the usual suspects (Fraile, de Gendt). Contador and Chaves are likely to put in relatively early attacks. Froome will stick to Quintana (if he can), so the question is when Quintana will attack or react (from the profile I would say on one of the steep pitches within the last 10km depending on the situation). That will be the key moment. If it's 10km out Froome might go into time trial mode (probably with the aid of Konig), in the last 4-5km he will try to follow and then it's game on.

Prediction: Quintana wins by a handful of seconds over the Preying Mantis with everyone else spread over the mountain

It's a fairly consistent gradient if he feels good early in the climb it might be AX3, LPSM time.

 

[Tank Engine]

Re:

Valverde will crack. Contador attacks on the penultimate climb and will be cooked 5 k to go when washing machine Froome will pass him, elbows bent like pushing a supermarket trolley up Aubisque with Quintana on his wheel. Not far behind Scarponi. Nairo drops the Dawg with 3K to go, no yoyo can help him as Scarponi finishes second, 50 seconds down. Somehow Bertie manages to catch the struggling Froome and out sprints him for third place 1:15 to Stoneface.

No way the Dawg is going into washing machine mode and letting Stoneface sit on his wheel. Like on Pena Cabarga, he will only look at Nairo and vice versa. If anyone else attacks, Valverde and/or Konig will be setting tempo. Until one of the two main contenders drops the other, it will be attack, slow down, attack until one of them gets a gap.

 

[Tank Engine]

Re: Re:

It's a fairly consistent gradient if he feels good early in the climb it might be AX3, LPSM time.

The Aubisque is certainly a good climb for Froome, but it's a multi-climb stage, which plays into the hands of a pure climber. If Froome is feeling good, then he could certainly win a stage like this, but I would be surprised to see him go total *** after a war of attrition.

 

[barmaher]

I think Quintana wins this handsomely.

 

[Orbit501]

I've no idea how recovered Bart de Clercq is after his GC hopes were ended after that crash, but if he is recovered enough and the break is to take the stage then I'd be pleased for him to take the stage win.

 

[trevim]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 1

Vervaeke and Dombrowski to fight it out from the breakaway

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

If Quintana gains a few seconds I'd have to favor his chances of winning the Vuelta. I don't think he'll lose that much time in the time trial.

Tomorrow is not totally a stage for pure climbers, as Abdorra was, becouse there are more flat than climb, it is an stage for strong and complete GC riders, but anyway is a hard moutain stage, so is a day for Quitana, If quitana cant put 40 seconnds to Froome means Froome is strog annd he wiil win this Vuelta. One minute for me is fifty-fifty. If quintana put more tha onne minute he will be the clear favouriote.

Tomorrow anyway lot of people will lose lot of minutes.

You came from abother planet. Your post is a complete rubbish.

 

[MacBAir]

Re:

We already did. Attack when the riders have orders to stop (his Giro win), cheat and try to grab motorbikes up any climb when outclassed, and wheelsuck as much as possible, as seen by this year's tour.
That's the best Quintana. He will never win the tour. That's amazing.
Hopefully, despite a long and successful season, Dawg can kick his ***, again.
Froome FTW, tomorrow.

No one is saint, Froome also. You want or not, Nairo is now the only rider in the pack who can push Froome to his limits.
They got practically same season distance in their legs and teams in LV are more comparable then in TdF. Will see who is the boss.

Nairo never pushed Froome to his limits this year, before this Vuelta. Yes, they might have the same distance in their legs but the difference is that Froome actually competes and tries to win.

For example, during the latest tour, Froome had 21 days of actual racing and competition. Quintana had 21 days of wheelsucking. You can't compare the efforts.

Despite being way more tired and having 100x the days of competition, Froome can actually still beat Nairo. Heck, if it wasn't for a strong Movistar, Contador could still beat Nairo as well. What would Nairo do if Contador went for it before the last climb and the peloton looked at him? What wheels would he suck?

Hopefully his tainted Giro win is the only GT win this guy ends with. It would be a great sign for those that actually enjoy cycling and racing.

On the other end, it's because of guys like Quintana, Rodriguez, Stybar, Leipheimer, Gerrans, Kittel, Mathews that the wins of Contador, Froome, Fabian, Sagan, Boonen and GVA are so valuable and feel so good to watch.

 

[klintE]

I can't see to much luck for breakaway on this day. Movistar will rather push the tempo, and greatest climbers are in the bunch...
Maybe someone like Van Garderen could be the winner with BMC support, but he is now in catering section of the team so...
There will be break but on a leash and will be caught in last 5 km.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

We'll finally be able to witness the best of Nairito's skills

We already did. Attack when the riders have orders to stop (his Giro win), cheat and try to grab motorbikes up any climb when outclassed, and wheelsuck as much as possible, as seen by this year's tour.

That's the best Quintana. He will never win the tour. That's amazing.

Hopefully, despite a long and successful season, Dawg can kick his ***, again.

Froome FTW, tomorrow.

Two points:
1) Nairo is in the #1 position where wheelsucking is absolutely acceptable: he's in the leader's jersey. The onus is on others to attack him, not vice versa. I know he probably needs more time in respect of the TT, but the choice is his. And while it may not be particularly visually appealing, Quintana is under no obligation to attack tomorrow for that reason: he already holds the cards in a literal sense. He does have a tendency to wheelsuck as he rides himself into form but tends to come out of his shell more as he finds it - the issue being that he tends to peak for week 3 which leads to some pretty irritating performances (Montecampione springs to mind) of negative racing; the issue in France was that he messed up his form cycle and never found that form, so stayed in defensive mode throughout.
2) For all the saltiness about Nairo not being a real racer and Froome being the opposite and Nairo grabbing at motorbikes if outclassed, only one of those riders has actually been kicked out of a GT for grabbing a motorbike, and it's not the Colombian, and I don't want to hear any excuses about injuries, it's still a DQ. It's also rewriting history to say that he "attacked" in the Giro when riders had instructions to "stop". Nobody was told to stop and no attack took place. Even if the race was neutralized, there were at no point any instructions to stop, and what happened was that many contenders chose to use the apparent neutralization as an opportunity to stop and replenish ahead of the descent, while those who didn't then found themselves ahead and then pushed on after the gap had already been made. Was it sporting? Hell no. Was it cheating? Absolutely not.

So quit the tribal black-and-white "this guy does all the right things/this guy does all the wrong things" nonsense. It's fine to like Froome more than Quintana, but spare us the selective memory justifications as a flimsy pretext to fan flame wars. Though I kind of agree with you that Quintana will never win the Tour because frankly, he shouldn't, if the routes were properly balanced. I'm not ready to anoint Nairo a better climber than Lucho, and back in Lucho's day a rider like him had no chance of winning the Tour.

 

[Bogotano]

Hey everyone, just registered, so exited to watch the first proper mountain stage tmrw! Hoping for long range Contador attack, Valverde to mark him, sky and Froome to chase and reel them in halfway up Aubisque, then Quintana to attack ftw. Most likely i think there won´t be action till last few k though, hope im wrong!

 

[RattaKuningas]

Hopefully it is going to be an exciting and entertaining stage because I am going to watch full stage today. Please no 33 minute breakaways.

Hey everyone, just registered, so exited to watch the first proper mountain stage tmrw! Hoping for long range Contador attack, Valverde to mark him, sky and Froome to chase and reel them in halfway up Aubisque, then Quintana to attack ftw. Most likely i think there won´t be action till last few k though, hope im wrong!

I think we will definitely see Contador long range at attack some point in the Vuelta.

 

[Robert5091]

If Konig & Sky are willing to bury themselves for Froome it'll be a furious pace on the final climb. Strange thing is Froome in second place can wheelsuck, so it's up to Quintana to attack. Hope TJ justifys his wages today and Bertie and Chaves try to grab the third podium spot. Can n't see it happening though (cross team collaboration) - Froome to out sprint Quintana in the last 50 meters.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Gutted I cant watch today, hopefully a good stage to catch up on later tonight.

Contador and Chavez surely must try something here, even if to at least bury Valverde who has a tendency to struggle on these long mountain stages.

Quintana needs to try and gap Froome too as I cant see 54 seconds being enough of a buffer in that TT next week. I expect Froome to be glued to Quintana's wheel unless he feels really good with a few k's to go.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 1

Vervaeke and Dombrowski to fight it out from the breakaway

That would be great, but I fear with the downhillson the way Vervaeke is already winner in this case.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

2) For all the saltiness about Nairo not being a real racer and Froome being the opposite and Nairo grabbing at motorbikes if outclassed, only one of those riders has actually been kicked out of a GT for grabbing a motorbike, and it's not the Colombian, and I don't want to hear any excuses about injuries, it's still a DQ. It's also rewriting history to say that he "attacked" in the Giro when riders had instructions to "stop". Nobody was told to stop and no attack took place. Even if the race was neutralized, there were at no point any instructions to stop, and what happened was that many contenders chose to use the apparent neutralization as an opportunity to stop and replenish ahead of the descent, while those who didn't then found themselves ahead and then pushed on after the gap had already been made. Was it sporting? Hell no. Was it cheating? Absolutely not.

Few points - stressing that only Froome was kicked off Giro is unfair, because obviously the fat doesn't determine whether rider actually cheated or not. (And if I'm correct in the moment when Froome grabbed motorcycle he was already decided to quit the race after the stage and only because of that he grabbed the motorcycle. Of course we can believe or not.) Quintana passed the motorcycle with red flag which was leading group downhill (and which he knew he isn't allowed to pass). Is that cheating? To me yes, it definitely is. After race Quintana said that decisive advantage being build uphill, that is of course arguable at least and to me it sounds that he might be trying to excuse something.

 

[staubsauger]

Also wasn't Aru instantly with Rolland, Quintana and Hesjedal on the descent of the Stelvio pass, but took it easy after the neutralization was mentioned (they later re-claimed that and said it was never told)? I think he was at least in the hunt and about to close the gap. So yes, for me Quintana build up a significant lead of his one and only gt win by shameless ignoring instructions from the race organization which where later recalled to prevent controvery!

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Also wasn't Aru instantly with Rolland, Quintana and Hesjedal on the descent of the Stelvio pass, but took it easy after the neutralization was mentioned (they later re-claimed that and said it was never told)? I think he was at least in the hunt and about to close the gap. So yes, for me Quintana build up a significant lead of his one and only gt win by shameless ignoring instructions from the race organization which where later recalled to prevent controvery!

We will never know if Quintana really cheated but he would have won that giro anyway. I mean, how many minutes did he gain on uran only the final climb of that stage? He simply was two classes above him.

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

Also wasn't Aru instantly with Rolland, Quintana and Hesjedal on the descent of the Stelvio pass, but took it easy after the neutralization was mentioned (they later re-claimed that and said it was never told)? I think he was at least in the hunt and about to close the gap. So yes, for me Quintana build up a significant lead of his one and only gt win by shameless ignoring instructions from the race organization which where later recalled to prevent controvery!

We will never know if Quintana really cheated but he would have won that giro anyway. I mean, how many minutes did he gain on uran only the final climb of that stage? He simply was two classes above him.

He was 50" ahead when everyone realised the Stelvio descent wasn't neutralised, 2'20" at the end of the descent, started the final climb with around 2' advantage, and finished 3'30" ahead of Kerlderman and Aru and 4'10" ahead of Urán.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

i agree "this time" Nairo can choose not to attack and Froome doesnt need too but movi has to keep accelerating at the botton. Its just fun/better when we have Contador in the mix to stir up things and making everybody 'unconformable', even if that means -1min. At the very least AC accelerations eliminates most of the big support of sky+movi and is hard to see Quinatana+Froome so isolated..
If AC(or Chaves) goes, and he probably will, Nairo should use that again since(to me) he is the best climber so far and he might be even better in a +5.000mt stage. That dynamic from movi of having Valv always there as a threat but not reeeally attacking until the very end, to me, does NOT help Quintana at all. Only makes him a "little" better 3 weeks GT rider than Valv, which is not enough...
I know Quintana wasnt at his best at TdF this year but even in 15 there wasnt anybody to play AC(or Nibali) hole as a real credible long range gc attacker that could benefit Quintana's talents.
Valv will glue to Froome's wheel until he can, again, an try to gain(again) in the others mistakes.
or maybe im just way wrong and is just the beer talking....

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

We will never know if Quintana really cheated

How is that? He intentionally passed the red flag motorcycle and he knew you just don't pass red flag motorcycle. What other proves do you need?

but he would have won that giro anyway. I mean, how many minutes did he gain on uran only the final climb of that stage? He simply was two classes above him.

That has nothing to do with the point.

 

[jsem94]

All I want is some action

 

[staubsauger]

Re: Re:

Also wasn't Aru instantly with Rolland, Quintana and Hesjedal on the descent of the Stelvio pass, but took it easy after the neutralization was mentioned (they later re-claimed that and said it was never told)? I think he was at least in the hunt and about to close the gap. So yes, for me Quintana build up a significant lead of his one and only gt win by shameless ignoring instructions from the race organization which where later recalled to prevent controvery!

We will never know if Quintana really cheated but he would have won that giro anyway. I mean, how many minutes did he gain on uran only the final climb of that stage? He simply was two classes above him.

He was 50" ahead when everyone realised the Stelvio descent wasn't neutralised, 2'20" at the end of the descent, started the final climb with around 2' advantage, and finished 3'30" ahead of Kerlderman and Aru and 4'10" ahead of Urán.

Spot on. It would've been a close call with Aru. Which is why I always keep on claiming that Quintana ain't as massive as he's hyped up so far and Aru arguably has stagnated in terms of development in the last 2 years nevertheless his Vuelta win!