2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 196km

[Flamin]

Screw stage 13. ¡La etapa reinaaaaaa! Vamos vamos. The official start of the stage is 12h04 CEST. Official coverage starts at 13h30 CEST (if I'm not mistaken).

The first big climb comes after 50kms of stretching the legs on flat roads. Then kaboom. The first kilometer of the Inharpu or Col d'Ahusquy already has slopes of 16% and 19%, followed by a kilometer at 11,8% average. The first 6km in total averages 9%. After this the climb flattens out for 2km. A last short but very hard uphill kick brings the riders to the top of the climb.

A climb with straight and mostly wide roads.

Km 62.9 - Col Inharpu 11.5 km a 7.1% - categoría 1

Next up is the Col du Soudet. It's been climbed in the Tour a few times as a pass, always quite far from the finish, just like here. Until 2015, sort of. Froome spread his wings and flew away from the ordinary people on the flanks of the Soudet, with the finish a little bit higher up in the ski-station of La Pierre-Saint-Martin. Though in 2015 they climbed it from a different side (North, from Arrette), this year they take the West side. Pretty similar in difficulty, only the W side has more irregular gradients.

A pretty long false flat run-in until the real stuff starts. The final 11km averages 8,15%. It includes some flattish sections, which means there are multiple kilometers above 10% too.

Km 111.8 - Col du Soudet 24 km a 5.2% - categoría 1

After the descent into Arrette, 15kms of valley remain until the base of Marie-Blanque, another well-known climb from the Tour. Last included in 2010, early in the stage, with the finish on the Tourmalet. Contador and Andy destroyed the competition but then a greatly anticipated mano à mano battle ended up in holding hands. Contador didn't contest the stage win to thank Andy for giving him a nice ride.

Anyway, it's the shortest climb of the day but the riders won't forget this one easily. The total average gradient of the climb (7,5%) doesn't really reflect the toughness, since the first 4-5km start rather easy. But the last 4km comes close to the definition of a murito. No less than 11% average, very regular, barely a single meter <10%.

Km 157.7 - Col de Marie-Blanque 9.2 a 7.5% - categoría 1

The descent is rather shallow, even including flattish sections in the beginning. At the end of descent in Bielle, the riders take a big right turn looking for the intermediate sprint in Laruns. This is where the last climb starts: the mythical Aubisque!

Aubisque has been climbed two times before in the history of the Vuelta (1995 and 2003), twice as a pass. In the Tour it has build up a huge status of course through many many decades. Very famous is the story about Wim Van Est in 1951, who crashed on the descent and fell into a ravine 70 metres deeper.

Most recent memory goes back to 2007, where Rasmussen resisted multiple attacks from Contador with ease and dropped him and Leipheimer in the final kilometer to win the stage. What Rasmussen couldn't resist though was a super fierceful attack by his own team that got him sent home that same evening.

Aubisque doesn't have the super steep gradients the Vuelta is so fond of, but it's really long and, especially after 3 cols, should cause some major damage.

Meta Aubisque - Gourette.16.5 km a 7.1% - categoría H

All in all a great stage. Finally a proper mountain stage in this Vuelta. It's not designed to offer possibilities for a longe range attack (God forbid that, it's still the Vuelta) but it's definitely going to separate the wheat from the calff. We're not talking seconds, but minutes. The GC is going to get a huge shake-up for sure.

Froome vs Quintana big showdown we never got in the Tour? I hope and expect so.

Weather
At the start and in the valleys, temperatures rise to 30°C. Weather at the Aubisque when the riders arrive, is 22°C and very cloudy but dry. Weak wind (8km/h) from the NW.

Top-10 GC
1. QUINTANA Nairo 7 MOVISTAR TEAM 52h 56' 29''
2. FROOME Christopher 21 TEAM SKY 52h 57' 23'' + 00' 54''
3. VALVERDE Alejandro 1 MOVISTAR TEAM 52h 57' 34'' + 01' 05''
4. CHAVES Johan Esteban 51 ORICA BIKEEXCHANGE 52h 59' 03'' + 02' 34''
5. CONTADOR Alberto 11 TINKOFF 52h 59' 37'' + 03' 08''
6. KONIG Leopold 26 TEAM SKY 52h 59' 38'' + 03' 09''
7. YATES Simon 59 ORICA BIKEEXCHANGE 52h 59' 54'' + 03' 25''
8. SCARPONI Michele 61 ASTANA PRO TEAM 53h 00' 03'' + 03' 34''
9. DE LA CRUZ David 133 ETIXX - QUICK STEP 53h 00' 14'' + 03' 45''
10. SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel 37 BMC RACING TEAM 53h 00' 25'' + 03' 56''

 

[LaFlorecita]

Good weather for Froome but I doubt he can drop Quintana in this shape.

 

[PremierAndrew]

But Froome doesn't need to drop Quintana

 

[saganboss]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 1

actually, i thought they will broadcast the full stage.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 1

Can't watch

 

[Brullnux]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 1

Can't watch

Awesome

 

[veji11]

THE mountain stage of the Vuelta.. like the only one really with several passes.

A great stage that offer possibilities for movement and use of teammates thanks to the flat sections between passes. There should be a big breakaway with some leaders' teammates in it to be potentially used as support for a long range attack, long range being relative : a leader could try and go in Marie Blanque to bridge with his teammates and get pulled to the Aubisque.

A true mountain stage also because it is the only one where a leader can just vaporize from contention if he gets in dififculty before the final climb. Even when you have climbs like Covadonga, when a stage is just one big climb, if you have bad legs, you lose 2/3 say 4 mn on the other leaders... in a stage like this, if you start getting in difficulty in Marie Blanque or god forbid earlier, you could end up 15/20 minutes down on the finish line and any form of GC contention just dissipated into thin air....

This stage might not play such a big role in the top 5 if current dynamics remain : we could see Quintana/Froome getting more margin at the very top, Valverde floating in the middle and Chaves/Contador behind. But the top10 had remained very open until this stage, and here there should be major clarification : some of the guys between place 5 and place 20 will eat those 15/20 minutes and just disappear, some guys will drop 4/5mn, others will arrive very close to the very best and only lose 1mn or so. Tomorrow evening you won't have 24 riders more or less within 10mn of the lead. It will be down to half that and the 25th will be 25mn down from the leader.

Tomorrow, GC will go kaboom.

 

[vedrafjord]

Note to the Tour de France: *this* the kind of stage you do on the second Saturday, not a featureless 200+ km flat snoozathon.

 

[Laplaz]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 1

Can't watch

Great news

 

[dacooley]

upon one's conscience that's a king stage of the vuelta. Nairito for the win. don't really know what to expect from Froome, but seems litle if he'll manage to limit his losses with something about 20-25 sec, the road to the victory in madrid is opened.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

But Froome doesn't need to drop Quintana

Nope but what I meant is that while it is good weather for Froome I don't see him taking advantage of it.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

THE mountain stage of the Vuelta.. like the only one really with several passes.

A great stage that offer possibilities for movement and use of teammates thanks to the flat sections between passes. There should be a big breakaway with some leaders' teammates in it to be potentially used as support for a long range attack, long range being relative : a leader could try and go in Marie Blanque to bridge with his teammates and get pulled to the Aubisque.

A true mountain stage also because it is the only one where a leader can just vaporize from contention if he gets in dififculty before the final climb. Even when you have climbs like Covadonga, when a stage is just one big climb, if you have bad legs, you lose 2/3 say 4 mn on the other leaders... in a stage like this, if you start getting in difficulty in Marie Blanque or god forbid earlier, you could end up 15/20 minutes down on the finish line and any form of GC contention just dissipated into thin air....

This stage might not play such a big role in the top 5 if current dynamics remain : we could see Quintana/Froome getting more margin at the very top, Valverde floating in the middle and Chaves/Contador behind. But the top10 had remained very open until this stage, and here there should be major clarification : some of the guys between place 5 and place 20 will eat those 15/20 minutes and just disappear, some guys will drop 4/5mn, others will arrive very close to the very best and only lose 1mn or so. Tomorrow evening you won't have 24 riders more or less within 10mn of the lead. It will be down to half that and the 25th will be 25mn down from the leader.

Tomorrow, GC will go kaboom.

I think you are too optimistic. Movistar is too strong to let long range attacks happen. Imo the only possible scenario would be that Contador, Chaves or someone like that attacks, Valverde follows to control them but the attackers go on anyway. Movistar might stop to pull because they have Valverde in front and Sky would need to do all the chasing. However that would be an incredibly risky tactic since Valverde might feel the two gt's in his legs in the 3rd week and generally Movistar is not the kind of team which I would expect to do that.
I think Quintana will attack somewhere around 5 km to go, since he needs more time, Froome will lose around 30 seconds, maybe a bit more and everyone else will lose at least one minute. Contador maybe a little bit less but I fear he will most likely blow himself up again by either trying to follow all attacks or by attacking early on the Aubisque himself.

 

[veji11]

Re: Re:

THE mountain stage of the Vuelta.. like the only one really with several passes.

A great stage that offer possibilities for movement and use of teammates thanks to the flat sections between passes. There should be a big breakaway with some leaders' teammates in it to be potentially used as support for a long range attack, long range being relative : a leader could try and go in Marie Blanque to bridge with his teammates and get pulled to the Aubisque.

A true mountain stage also because it is the only one where a leader can just vaporize from contention if he gets in dififculty before the final climb. Even when you have climbs like Covadonga, when a stage is just one big climb, if you have bad legs, you lose 2/3 say 4 mn on the other leaders... in a stage like this, if you start getting in difficulty in Marie Blanque or god forbid earlier, you could end up 15/20 minutes down on the finish line and any form of GC contention just dissipated into thin air....

This stage might not play such a big role in the top 5 if current dynamics remain : we could see Quintana/Froome getting more margin at the very top, Valverde floating in the middle and Chaves/Contador behind. But the top10 had remained very open until this stage, and here there should be major clarification : some of the guys between place 5 and place 20 will eat those 15/20 minutes and just disappear, some guys will drop 4/5mn, others will arrive very close to the very best and only lose 1mn or so. Tomorrow evening you won't have 24 riders more or less within 10mn of the lead. It will be down to half that and the 25th will be 25mn down from the leader.

Tomorrow, GC will go kaboom.

I think you are too optimistic. Movistar is too strong to let long range attacks happen. Imo the only possible scenario would be that Contador, Chaves or someone like that attacks, Valverde follows to control them but the attackers go on anyway. Movistar might stop to pull because they have Valverde in front and Sky would need to do all the chasing. However that would be an incredibly risky tactic since Valverde might feel the two gt's in his legs in the 3rd week and generally Movistar is not the kind of team which I would expect to do that.
I think Quintana will attack somewhere around 5 km to go, since he needs more time, Froome will lose around 30 seconds, maybe a bit more and everyone else will lose at least one minute. Contador maybe a little bit less but I fear he will most likely blow himself up again by either trying to follow all attacks or by attacking early on the Aubisque himself.

Oh I agree that I can't really see the top 4 doing anything before the last climb, Contador might try but it would likely fail. But still some legs will just explode and there will be far far less guys in contention for a top10

 

[PremierAndrew]

Weird to think that the Col du Soudet is only a Cat 1

 

[carton]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 1

I agree with most of the above in thinking that the long range attack idea is rather fanciful. This is a GT queen stage and it's most likely going to be raced like it, slow and measured. Any GC action before they reach the summit of the Marie Blanque would be a win in my book.

Heat can affect people in different ways. But on current form, anyone but Froome goes for Quintana and Movistar early on this stage, they're going not going to crack. They're going to go pop like Marvin in Pulp Fiction.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Tinkoff will send some guys up the road, Contador will pretend to try something on Soudet. Break will win, Quintana will attack with 7 km to go and he and Froome will pass the finish line together. Scarponi will be the third best.

 

[MikeTichondrius]

Large break with Majka, Pantano, Costa, Alaphilippe, Rolland, Nibali and Voeckler in it. Rolland to crash on the Soudet downhill, Voeckler to drop. Costa to attack and fail and Majka managing to snatch another combativity award after losing to Pantano. Skytrain to reel in everyone top 10 relevant and leisurely ride to the finish.

Wait, wrong GT? Call it a habit.

I call Contador on this one, even if I sort of expect him to disappoint me. It's what he used to be best at...

 

[DFA123]

I think Quintana will destroy everyone here. Can see him taking a minute out of all the other GC riders. Froome can't afford do to his dropping off the back thing, it makes it too easy for Quintana - able to climb at his own pace, rather than needed to attack repeatedly.

 

[sir fly]

We'll definitely learn more about GC chances.
I like the stage design. And I'm pleased it'll be broadcast in entirety.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Rasmussen FTW!

But seriously I think Chaves might do well here.

 

[Red Rick]

The Cycling Gods will fight

The world will tremble

 

[DanielSong39]

Predicting Froome alien mode; anything else and it's Quintana's Vuelta.

Contador will do his best to get on the podium and while it would be scant consolation, it's not terrible.

Rooting for Contador to blow this race up, but not counting on it.

 

[Arredondo]

Do or die for Contador and Chavito. If they want to end this Vuelta with some honour, they need to ride their socks off tomorrow.

Quintana to win with + 15 seconds on Froome after wheelsucking for most of the climb.

 

[damian13ster]

Re: 2016 Vuelta a España, stage 14: Urdax > Col d'Aubisque 1

The only chance for long range attack on this stage would be Froome having 3m loss already and Sky willing to sacrifixe Konig to drop Movistar domestiques. None of that has happened so we are in for a procession until last 10km

 

[DanielSong39]

Re:

Do or die for Contador and Chavito. If they want to end this Vuelta with some honour, they need to ride their socks off tomorrow.

Quintana to win with + 15 seconds on Froome after wheelsucking for most of the climb.

If Quintana is able to steal one from Contador's playbook in the 2014 Vuelta (stages 16 and 20) he deserves to win. If he is good enough to do that he probably won't lose much time in the time trial either. Let's not forget that Froome shipped time to Contador and Valverde in the time trials in the 2014 Vuelta.